Chapter 12

Risk, Cost of Capital, and Capital Budgeting

Key Concepts and Skills

Know how to determine a firms cost of equity capital Understand the impact of beta in determining the firms cost of equity capital Know how to determine the firms overall cost of capital

Chapter Outline
12.1 The Cost of Equity Capital
12.2 Estimation of Beta 12.3 Determinants of Beta

12.4 Extensions of the Basic Model

12.5 Estimating International Papers Cost of Capital

Where Do We Stand?

Earlier chapters on capital budgeting focused on the appropriate size and timing of cash flows. This chapter discusses the appropriate discount rate when cash flows are risky.
(when risky then discount rate will higher)

12.1 The Cost of Equity Capital

Firm with excess cash

Pay cash dividend

Shareholder invests in financial asset

A firm with excess cash can either pay a dividend or make a capital investment Shareholders Terminal Value
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Invest in project

Because stockholders can reinvest the dividend in risky financial assets, the expected return on a capital budgeting project should be at least as great as the expected return on a financial asset of comparable risk.

The Cost of Equity Capital

From the firms perspective, the Cost of Equity Capital:

Ri RF i ( R M RF )

To estimate a firms cost of equity capital, we need to know three things:

1. The risk-free rate, RF 2. The market risk premium, R M

Cov( Ri , RM ) i , M 2 3. The company beta, i Var ( RM ) M

RF

Example

Suppose the stock of Stansfield Enterprises, a publisher of PowerPoint presentations, has a beta of 2.5. The firm is 100 percent equity financed. Assume a risk-free rate of 5 percent and a market risk premium of 10 percent. What is the appropriate discount rate for an expansion of this firm?

R RF i ( R M RF )

R 5% 2.5 10% R 30%

Example
Suppose Stansfield Enterprises is evaluating the following independent projects. Each costs $100 and lasts one year.
Project Project b Projects Estimated Cash Flows Next Year $150 $130 $110 IRR NPV at 30%

A B C

2.5 2.5 2.5

50% 30% 10%

$15.38 $0 -$15.38
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Using the SML

Project IRR

Good A project B
C Bad project

SML

30%
5%

Firms risk (beta)

2.5

An all-equity firm should accept projects whose IRRs exceed the cost of equity capital and reject projects whose IRRs fall short of the cost of capital.

12.2 Estimation of Beta

Market Portfolio - Portfolio of all assets in the economy. In practice, a broad stock market index is used to represent the market.

Beta - Sensitivity of a stocks return to the return on the market portfolio.

12.2 Estimation of Beta

Problems

Cov( Ri , RM ) Var ( RM )

1. Betas may vary over time. 2. The sample size may be inadequate. 3. Betas are influenced by changing financial leverage and business risk.

Solutions
Problems 1 and 2 can be moderated by more sophisticated statistical techniques. Problem 3 can be lessened by adjusting for changes in business and financial risk. Look at average beta estimates of comparable firms in the industry.

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Stability of Beta

Most analysts argue that betas are generally stable for firms remaining in the same industry. Thats not to say that a firms beta cant change.

Changes in product line Changes in technology Deregulation Changes in financial leverage

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Using an Industry Beta

It is frequently argued that one can better estimate a firms beta by involving the whole industry. If you believe that the operations of the firm are similar to the operations of the rest of the industry, you should use the industry beta. If you believe that the operations of the firm are fundamentally different from the operations of the rest of the industry, you should use the firms beta. Dont forget about adjustments for financial leverage.

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12.3 Determinants of Beta

Business Risk

Cyclicality of Revenues Operating Leverage Financial Leverage

Financial Risk

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Cyclicality of Revenues

Highly cyclical stocks have higher betas.

Empirical evidence suggests that retailers and automotive firms fluctuate with the business cycle. Utility companies are less dependent upon the business cycle.

Note that cyclicality is not the same as variabilitystocks with high standard deviations need not have high betas.

Movie studios have revenues that are variable, depending upon whether they produce hits or flops, but their revenues may not be especially dependent 14 upon the business cycle.

Operating Leverage

The degree of operating leverage measures how sensitive a firm (or project) is to its fixed costs. Operating leverage increases as fixed costs rise and variable costs fall. Operating leverage magnifies the effect of cyclicality on beta. The degree of operating leverage is given by:
DOL = Sales D EBIT EBIT D Sales

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Operating Leverage
$
Total costs Fixed costs

D EBIT

D Sales

Fixed costs

Sales

Operating leverage increases as fixed costs rise and variable costs fall.
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Financial Leverage and Beta

Operating leverage refers to the sensitivity to the firms fixed costs of production. Financial leverage is the sensitivity to a firms fixed costs of financing. The relationship between the betas of the firms debt, equity, and assets is given by: Debt Equity bDebt + bEquity Debt + Equity Debt + Equity

bAsset =

Financial leverage always increases the equity beta relative 17 to the asset beta.

Example
Consider Grand Sport, Inc., which is currently all-equity financed and has a beta of 0.90. The firm has decided to lever up to a capital structure of 1 part debt to 1 part equity. Since the firm will remain in the same industry, its asset beta should remain 0.90. However, assuming a zero beta for its debt, its equity beta would become twice as large:
bAsset = 0.90 =
1 bEquity 1+1

bEquity = 2 0.90 = 1.80

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12.4 Extensions of the Basic Model

The Firm versus the Project

The Cost of Capital with Debt

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The Firm versus the Project

Any projects cost of capital depends on the use to which the capital is being putnot the source. Therefore, it depends on the risk of the project and not the risk of the company.

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Capital Budgeting & Project Risk

Project IRR The SML can tell us why:

SML
Incorrectly accepted negative NPV projects

Hurdle rate RF

RF FIRM ( R M RF )
Incorrectly rejected positive NPV projects Firms risk (beta)

bFIRM

A firm that uses one discount rate for all projects may over time 21 increase the risk of the firm while decreasing its value.

Capital Budgeting & Project Risk

Suppose the Conglomerate Company has a cost of capital, based on the CAPM, of 17%. The risk-free rate is 4%, the market risk premium is 10%, and the firms beta is 1.3. 17% = 4% + 1.3 10% This is a breakdown of the companys investment projects: 1/3 Automotive Retailer b = 2.0 1/3 Computer Hard Drive Manufacturer b = 1.3

1/3 Electric Utility b = 0.6

average b of assets = 1.3 When evaluating a new electrical generation investment, which cost of capital should be used?
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Capital Budgeting & Project Risk

SML Project IRR
24%

17% 10%

Investments in hard drives or auto retailing should have higher discount rates. Projects risk (b)
0.6 1.3 2.0 R = 4% + 0.6(14% 4% ) = 10%

10% reflects the opportunity cost of capital on an investment23 in electrical generation, given the unique risk of the project.

The Cost of Capital with Debt

The Weighted Average Cost of Capital is given by:

Equity Debt REquity + RDebt (1 tC) Equity + Debt Equity + Debt

RWACC =

S B RWACC = RS + RB (1 tC) S+B S+B

Because interest expense is tax-deductible, we multiply the last term by (1 tC).

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Example: International Paper

First, we estimate the cost of equity and the cost of debt.

We estimate an equity beta to estimate the cost of equity. We can often estimate the cost of debt by observing the YTM of the firms debt.

Second, we determine the WACC by weighting these two costs appropriately.

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Example: International Paper

The industry average beta is 0.82, the risk free rate is 3%, and the market risk premium is 8.4%. Thus, the cost of equity capital is:
RS = RF + bi (RM RF) = 3% + 0.828.4% = 9.89%
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Example: International Paper

The yield on the companys debt is 8%, and the firm has a 37% marginal tax rate. The debt to value ratio is 32%
S B RWACC = RS + RB (1 tC) S+B S+B = 0.68 9.89% + 0.32 8% (1 0.37) = 8.34%

8.34 percent is Internationals cost of capital. It should be used to discount any project where one believes that the projects risk is equal to the risk of the firm as a whole and the project 27 has the same leverage as the firm as a whole.

Quick Quiz

How do we determine the cost of equity capital? How can we estimate a firm or project beta? How does leverage affect beta? How do we determine the cost of capital with debt?

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