“As for Emilia Pérez, better luck in the other music category.” So we said two days ago. And luck, it seems, is going to play more of a factor here than ever seemed possible just a couple of weeks ago, in the wake of the film’s near-record-setting 13 nominations. In fact, that we’re even writing more than 50 words on this category is testament to just how badly things have gone for the one-time Oscar frontrunner.
Almost right out of the gate, every race handicapper knew that Zoe Saldaña’s “El Mal” represented the “chosen one” over the Selena Gomez showcase “Mi Camino,” an understanding built perhaps less through unspoken symbiosis and more out of the notion that the song contest is this year inexorably tied to the dynamics of the supporting actress race. But that was long before Netflix found itself sifting through the wreckage of a near-instantly ruined campaign. One needn’t stretch one’s imagination to visualize the streamer’s award machine, beyond fed up with doing damage control for Karla Sofía Gascón—and arguably director Jacques Audiard, who’s listed as a nominee for contributing lyrics to “El Mal” (among them, we’re convinced, “from penis to vagina”)—taking a cue from the universe and shoring up for a true Hail Mary.
Hear us out. Not only has Diane Warren amassed a shockingly long winless streak in this category—with her 16th nomination here for The Six Triple Eight’s “The Journey,” she’s tied with sound mixer Greg P. Russell for the most nominations without a competitive win—but after a string of nods for tiny, independent (occasionally Christian) movies that Wikipedia didn’t even know about until they were nominated, she finally saddled herself up with a distributor that actually has the resources to potentially put a thumb on the scale on her behalf. And as crass as it is to point it out, Warren did just lose a house in the Los Angeles wildfires.
The entire Emilia Pérez trainwreck feels like the one controversy this season that’s been felt more palpably outside of the social media bubble that AMPAS voters are largely oblivious of, which has us raising the question of just how intense the backlash is really going to be toward the film. And at least a few have outright questioned the eligibility of “The Journey,” given the song’s multiple appearances in the wild ahead of the film’s release. (Academy rules explicitly require nominees here to be “original and written specifically for the motion picture.”)
On the other hand, the last time this was an at least conceptually close race and H.E.R. (who performs “The Journey”) was attached to one of the nominees, the song ended up winning in a minor upset, so consider us on guard for an unexpected Susan Lucci moment. That all being said, the levels of tortured logic we’ve just put ourselves through on a category that on paper remains one of Emilia Pérez’s last dwindling “get out of jail free” spaces only underlines how the Diane Warren narrative is an outcome Oscar bloggers arguably want more than Oscar voters do.
Will Win: “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez
Could Win: “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight
Should Win: “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing
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