A Robot Or An Employee?
2 likes389 views
This document discusses the rise of robots and automation replacing human jobs. It notes that human capital is the #1 business challenge according to CEOs and that many current jobs will be done by robots in the future. Robots and AI are already performing tasks like driving, surgery, warehouse work, and more. The document outlines many challenges this will create for HR, such as employee stress, resistance to technology, managing layoffs, and retaining top talent. It argues that HR must work closely with tech departments and prepare for managing both people and robots in the future workplace.
More Related Content
What's hot (20)
Similar to A Robot Or An Employee? (20)
More from Dr. John Sullivan (6)
Recently uploaded (20)
A Robot Or An Employee?
- 1. 50 © Dr John Sullivan A Robot Or An Employee? Go to www.drjohnsullivan.com for a copy of these slides We Must Offer Integrated Solutions at Human & Robot Resources
- 2. Few firms facilitate taking time off to think about the future 2 Consider today as an opportunity to… think ahead… to avoid a large negative surprise
- 3. 4 goals for today’s presentation 3 1. The primary goal for today is to stimulate your thinking 2. And to have a lively discussion about an upcoming game changing shift 3. To make you aware of the scope of this looming “tech takes over human work” problem 4. To illustrate the people problems that will occur as a result of technology taking over jobs
- 4. 4 Let’s all start from the same perspective What are the top global business challenges according to CEO’s in 2016? • Operational Excellence • Customer Relationships • Regulation and Risk • Corporate Brand and Reputation • Innovation and Digitalization • Human Capital • Sustainability Source: The Conference Board survey of CEO’s 2016
- 5. 5 We are #1 The #1 global bus challenge facing CEO’s is… 1.Human Capital 2.Customer Relationships (tied) 2.Corporate Brand and Reputation (tied) 4.Operational Excellence 5.Innovation and Digitalization 6.Regulation and Risk 7.Sustainability Would you agree it’s time for bold changes… because we are still the top challenge after 4 years? Source: The Conference Board survey of CEO’s 2016 4 of the 5 top challenges require outstanding employees … for the fourth year in a row
- 6. Which firms do CEO’s want to emulate? What 2 things do these top firms have in common? Amazon Facebook Microsoft Google Apple 1.Their ranking in market cap value (US) 2.They are all serial innovation firms Lesson learned – Innovation is the #1 driver of corporate value 6Source: iWeblists.com 11/1/16 #5 #4 #3 #2 #1
- 7. Just like Superman… HR can’t ignore… “The March Of The Robots” 7
- 8. What percent of our current jobs will robots do? "We are approaching a time when machines will be able to outperform humans at almost any task" Moshe Vardi, Rice U 8 Computers, intelligent machines, and robots seem like the workforce of the future. And as more and more jobs are replaced by technology, people will have less work to do and ultimately will be sustained by payments from the government - Elon Musk
- 9. And if you think machines will only do menial jobs 9 How many med. papers are published a day? IBM’s Watson “sifted through 20 million cancer research papers, and came up with the proper diagnosis within 10 minutes, suggesting a new treatment that has since been more effective” (Watson found something that humans missed 30% of the time) 8000
- 10. Next let’s understand that… New technologies have amazing capabilities… and they will take over work in every industry 10
- 11. The original robot driver 11
- 12. Drivers are becoming obsolete 12 Operating in Pittsburg
- 13. New choices for a chef… a person or a robot? 13 56 ovens
- 14. New delivery choices… a person, a robot or a drone? 14 Slurpee to Reno Domino’s Robot Unit in NZ
- 15. Chatbots and IVR mean few calls 15
- 16. Cashiers are becoming obsolete at McD’s and Home Depot 16
- 17. Robots assume warehouse jobs at Amazon 17
- 18. Robots cut the costs of fruit picking in agriculture 18
- 19. Tech can do dangerous work 19
- 20. 20 Even recruiting is using technology 20Source: Kiwi.com
- 21. Tech can do precision surgical work 21
- 22. Which technologies are most likely to replace your employees? Software Phone apps (the internet is shrinking) Decision algorithms using AI & machine learning Predictive analytics Chatbots and IVR? Virtual reality & video instruction Online self-service apps Hardware Driverless vehicles Physical robots Delivery drones Computer hardware / software (Watson) Employee tracking and GPS location devices 22
- 23. Why now? (Why the sudden march of robots?) Some possible contributing factors include: Smartphone apps have made people comfortable with work done by machines (GPS) The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Relentless and adventurous firms like Google and IBM Tech firms pushing the “fail harder” innovation mantra Surplus $ from successful tech firms 23
- 24. HR is often already at a disadvantage (When compared to tech or IT ) 24
- 25. HR may be excluded from “tech vs. employee work decisions” 25 1. HR is often not invited - to discussions on purchasing worker replacing technologies 2. Little impact - because of its new capabilities, tech is often implemented even when HR fights it 3. ROI - tech departments already calculate the ROI of their installations, HR does not 4. Metrics - robot installations always have metrics quantifying their performance, employees don’t 5. Know both - tech managers argue that they know both people and tech, HR isn’t tech savvy 6. Data on advantages - tech has data demonstrating the advantages of tech, HR has no data on when employees perform better >
- 26. Does HR have data… proving that… humans are better at something vs. tech? 1. Innovation – humans come up with mostly tech innovations 2. Building relationships 3. Empathy 4. Sales? 5. ___________ 6. ___________ 7. ___________ 8. ___________ 9. ___________ 10.___________ 26
- 27. What’s wrong with people / employees? Be objective in recognizing the limitations of people They can’t work 24/7/365 and in bad weather They require a manager / supervisor They want pay, overtime and benefits They get sick, and they are late and absent They arrive at work high, sleepy or drunk They get tired, hurt and they need breaks They steal and can reveal company secrets They create interpersonal and robot conflicts They have a high error rate, compared to machines They expect retirement pay till they die Their skills go obsolete & upgrading is difficult > 27
- 28. Employee retraining may not be feasible Up-skilling employees will be problematic because… The tech skills will be so different – many employees simply won’t be able to raise their skills Time is critical – technologies change so rapidly, there may simply be no time to wait for retraining Employee interest – the burden of retraining may cause many employees to lose interest Will training work? – the training will be expensive and there is no guarantee that it will work Firms won’t have the training capabilities – and by the time the training program is developed, the new technology may already be becoming obsolete28
- 29. 29 And if re-training isn’t viable… HR can just hire the best from the free market What % of all new-hires fail within 18 months? “46%” (Source: Leadership IQ) What % of all hourly employees quit or are fired within their first 6 months “50%” (Source: Humetrics) What % of management new-hires fail within 18 mths. “Between 40 and 60%” (Source: Harvard Business Review) What % of executive new-hires fail within 18 mths” “Nearly 50%”(Source: The Corporate Leadership Council)
- 30. Advantages of tech over employees 30 Machines have higher level capabilities (Watson) It can find relationships in areas that seem unrelated It can do precision work with few errors It can do high level mental calculations better It can do physical work with more strength It can do dangerous work in any weather It can do high volume of tedious work… at low cost It can do continuous repetitive work without tiring It can do work faster and in less time Phone app access is 24/7, so it will dominate Higher min. wages make hourly workers expensive Work replacement vendors are everywhere >
- 31. Robot demand is increasing – Why? 31
- 32. We will only be able to add value if… HR is aware of the people problems that will be created by robots 32
- 33. Are you ready for these people problems Executives will expect a smooth transition – so HR must have a great plan w/ metrics Employee stress levels – stress will increase as employees and managers fear the uncertainty Resistance, stalling & sabotage - asking employees to implement tech that will take their jobs may cause stalling & sabotage Location tracking – will make workers suspicious Violence – is possible between impacted and non- impacted employee groups & with installers & managers Unions – existing ones will resist or some new ones will be formed to fight tech replacements Managing layoffs – layoffs will be continuous, expensive and difficult with new legal protections 33
- 34. Be prepared to handle a multitude of people problems Support staff will be cut – fewer employees, mean a cut in the # of support staff Who will be the future managers? – when there will be few employees in the promotion pool Retention – the retention of soon to be replaced employees will be difficult, so employment contracts or “stay bonuses” may be needed Surplus physical space - there will be an excess of real estate after tech implementation (ghost town) The continuing march – the continuous shift will scare away many current employees and new-hires Bad PR from the conversion – if it happens, it will mean lost customers and applicants 34
- 35. HR must have these… needed capabilities Innovation may lose out to efficiency - if HR isn’t a powerful advocate of innovation Interdepartmental integration is required – coordination between HRR and the CTO, CIO and COO’s office is essential Bias – HR has a long-held bias towards humans… so we must prove our objectivity Rewards - for accepting new tech may be needed Gig workers - high-quality gig workers will have to be hired and managed effectively (seamlessly) 35
- 36. The remaining employees must be special Hi-performers - those remaining employees must have higher-level skills and performance and HR must be able to attract and retain them The remaining managers - will have to be able to manage both technology and people Innovation - and innovators will have the highest value but it is difficult within a 6 Sigma world Technology employees - will be critical but they will be hard to recruit and retain 36
- 37. Is this a future want ad? 37
- 38. Who will be affected the most by technology taking over most work? 38
- 39. Key quote “Robots will take over approximately 50% of the jobs in the U.S. economy over the course of just a decade or two” - Marshall Brain 39
- 40. Industries that will likely be impacted What industries are facing the highest job loss? Transportation Manufacturing Warehousing and storage Quick service restaurants Consumer retail online and at stores Outsource vendors Firms that make and service this technology Package delivery Banks (fintech) Hospitals and healthcare 40
- 41. Jobs that will likely be impacted Which corporate jobs will likely be eliminated? Drivers and delivery people Inventory jobs Call center jobs Manufacturing jobs Cashiers Librarians Administrative & research clerks Recruiting sourcers Trainers and teachers Managers that supervise and make decisions 41 Estimate the % of your firm’s jobs that will be at risk
- 42. Expect these 9 major shifts within HR in response to tech 1. A shift to data-driven people decisions 2. Managers will do most HR work on their phone 3. HR will shift to an internal consulting firm model 4. Updated algorithms will reveal what is working 5. Chatbots will answer 90% of HR questions 6. Remote work and gig work will require that the output of all jobs be quantified in #’s and $ 7. All metrics will be predictive 8. HRIS will merge with IT 9. Learning/growth mindset will become the #1 worker competency 42
- 43. HR jobs that will likely be impacted HR may shrink by 75% Benefits Recruiting Learning and development Analytics HRIS/HRMS Compensation Performance management Retention (predicting flight risk) Onboarding Generalists (manager self-service) 43
- 44. The tech / human selection criteria must be accurate 44
- 45. Robot vs. Human selection criteria 1. Proof of performance improvement or differential 2. Customer / user resistance and satisfaction 3. Is the work strenuous or dangerous? 4. Reliability, capabilities and error rate 5. Global capability 6. Time to implementation & probability of failure 7. Costs and ROI 8. Vendor reliability & service (vendor selection checklist) 9. The availability of upgrades 10.Is decision-making/adaptability under crisis needed? 11.Is company specific innovation required 45
- 46. Sometimes people win “We apply the same level of rigor, analysis and experimentation on people as we do the tech side” In the case of promotions…(Google with a promotional success prediction rate of 90%) final decisions are left to people (the hiring committee) Source: Prasad Setty 46
- 48. Action steps for HR Begin making the transition now Put together a human / robot team Make a business case for funding Benchmark what other companies are doing Begin shifting to a data-driven HR Meet with the heads of IT and technology Ensure that a % of new HR hires are tech savvy Form a partnership between the departments that are likely to be considering new technology Jointly develop a set of “selection criteria”, integrated processes and performance metrics Develop a checklist for assessing tech vendors Measure results and improve your criteria Develop an effective gig hiring process 48
- 49. Firms to learn from Amazon U.S. Army IBM (Watson) Uber Domino’s Tesla Google Mc Donald's Home Depot 49
- 50. 50www.drjohnsullivan.com or JohnS@sfsu.edu Did I make you think? Please connect with me on LinkedIn