Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for October 18th, 2016

October 18th, 2016

It’s a bad week for the home market. There are only two first-run releases and neither of them are worth picking up. There’s not a lot of limited releases, TV on DVD releases, etc. to make up the gap. However, there is one truly great release, Trilogía de Guillermo del Toro from The Criterion Collection. The Blu-ray costs a lot, but it is a must have for fans of Guillermo Del Toro, especially his earlier Spanish-language work: Cronos, The Devil’s Backbone, and Pan’s Labyrinth. More...

International Box Office: Warcraft Crushes Competition in China on way to $185.8 Million Weekend

June 16th, 2016

Warcraft roared into first place with $185.8 million in 52 markets for totals of $261.7 million internationally and 285.9 million worldwide. There are some amazing news to report from over the weekend, but also some bad news. First the positive news. The film broke records in China earning $156.17 million during its five-day opening. That topped the previous record held by Furious 7. Unfortunately, outside of China, its box office run was much closer to its North American debut. For example, it earned second place in South Korea with $4.26 million on 736 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.09 million. Because of how much money the film is earning in China and how little of that the studio sees, the film could make $600 million internationally and still struggle to break even. More...

International Box Office: Apocalypse Tops Weekend Chart, Zootopia Hits $1 billion

June 9th, 2016

X-Men: Apocalypse returned to top spot on the international chart with $84.4 million in 66 markets for totals of $286.0 million internationally and $403.0 million worldwide. Most of the film's weekend haul came from China, where it earned first place with $59.33 million. This is the best opening in the franchise in that market. The film has yet to open in Japan, but will likely fall out of the top ten before it gets there. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Turtles Open First, but Isn't Powerful with a $35.32 Million Opening

June 7th, 2016

Two of the three new wide releases failed to make much of an impact at the box office over the weekend. This includes the overall number one film, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows. It earned $35.32 million during its opening weekend, which isn't as bad as some feared, but it is also well below its predecessor's opening. Me Before You did very well in a counter-programming role with $18.72 million. Finally, Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping barely topped the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office earned $133 million, which is 19% lower than last weekend, but that is an acceptable post-holiday decline. Compared to last year, the box office this year was lower, but by less than 0.1%. Year-to-date, 2016's lead has grown to $250 million or 5.9% at $4.56 billion to $4.30 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Turtles Power to $35.25 Million Debut

June 5th, 2016

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows will top the box office chart this weekend with a respectable $35.25 million, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. The weekend as a whole is looking fairly ordinary though, thanks in large part to the muted debuts of X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass last weekend, and their predictably-steep post-Memorial-Day declines. Apocalypse is off 66% this weekend to $22.325 million and $116.5 million in total. Alice will eke out $10.7 million or so for a two-week total of $50.8 million. Overall, the market will be down about 1% from the same weekend last year, and 20% below the comparable weekend from 2014. More...

Weekend Predictions: Throwing Shade on the New Releases

June 2nd, 2016

It's one of those weekends where the bigger the release is, the worse its reviews are. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows is the only film expected to top $100 million domestically and its reviews are just 31% positive. Me Before You is expected to be a midlevel hit, but its reviews have slipped to 47% positive. Meanwhile, most analysts think Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping will bomb, but its reviews are by far the best at 81% positive. This weekend last year, Spy opened with just under $30 million. Out of the Shadows should top that, while both years have similar depth. Hopefully 2016 will win the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Alice is Looking Up

June 2nd, 2016

Alice Through the Looking Glass opened in first place on the international chart with $65.0 million in 43 markets for a worldwide opening of $91.9 million, not including holiday Monday. The film's biggest opening was in China, where it made $26.88 million. It also did well in Mexico opening in first place with $4.85 million. On the other hand, it had mediocre openings in Russia (second place with $3.95 million on 1,199 screens), in the U.K. (second place with $3.33 million in 603 theaters) and in Australia (first place with $2.18 million on 503 screens). Those three openings were similar to a $20 million opening here, more or less. If the film can get to $300 million to $350 million worldwide, then it will have a shot at breaking even, eventually. It opens in France this week, Japan next month, and closes its international run in South Korea in September. It will be a while before we will know where it ends. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: X-Men has Okay Opening with $79.81 million, Alice suffers Apocalyptic Opening

May 31st, 2016

Last Memorial Day was bad with Tomorrowland leading the way with $33.03 million / $42.68 million. This year things were a bit better, with X-Men: Apocalypse earning $65.77 million / $79.81 million. Again, this is okay, but not outstanding. It's record-breaking compared to Alice Through the Looking Glass, which took in $26.86 million / $33.51 million. It's Disney's first bomb of the year. Don't feel bad for them, as they also set the record for fastest to $4 Billion Worldwide over the weekend. Overall, the box office was at $164 million, which was 20% better than last weekend and 18% better than last year. Including Monday, the box office pulled in $205 million, which was 6.3% more than last Memorial day. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $4.39 billion, which is 5.4% or $220 million more than last year's figure of $4.16 billion. (This does include Monday of last year, because of the misalignment of holiday. This is the last misaligned holiday till Labor Day.) More...

Weekend Estimates: X-Men Debuts to $80 Million Long Weekend

May 29th, 2016

The X-Men franchise has an impressive track record of Memorial Day openings, starting with X-Men: The Last Stand, which became the first film to gross $100 million over the 3-day part of the long weekend back in 2006. Days of Future Past grossed $90 million this weekend two years ago. In that context, a 3-day opening of $65 million for X-Men: Apocalypse is very much on the low end of expectations, although not too far behind the $72 million we were expecting earlier in the week. It’s a start that points towards a total domestic box office between $130 million and $150 million, even with the extra boost of another $15 million or so expected on Monday. That leaves the international markets with a lot to do, and the news overseas hasn’t been that great, with about $115 million in the bank after most markets opened last weekend. More...

Friday Estimates: Apocalypse Okay with $26.4 million

May 28th, 2016

Memorial Day long weekend got off to an okay start on Friday with X-Men: Apocalypse dominating the chart. It pulled in $26.4 million. Two years ago, Days of Future Past opened with $35.51 million on its opening day. If the two films have the same internal multiplier, then Apocalypse will have a four-day haul of $82 million. This film’s reviews will make that number unlikely, but its CinemaScore is an A-, so a complete collapse is also unlikely. Look for an opening weekend of just under $80 million. This won't be enough to get to $200 million domestically, but it is enough to break even early in its home market run. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Apocalypse gives a Glimpse of the Future with $8.2 million

May 27th, 2016

X-Men: Apocalypse started off the Memorial Day long weekend with $8.2 million in 3,565 theaters during its Thursday previews. This is well back from Captain America: Civil War or Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both of which earned more than $25 million. However, it is better than Days of Future Past, which earned $8.1 million, so there's a chance it will cracked $100 million over the four-day weekend. I think the reviews will be a major hindrance in that goal, unless fans like it a whole lot more than critics did. This time tomorrow, we will have the opening day numbers, as well as its CinemaScore, so we will have a better grasp on its opening weekend run. More...

Weekend Predictions: Apocalypse vs. Alice

May 26th, 2016

It's Memorial Day long weekend and there are two wide releases trying to take advantage of the holidays. X-Men: Apocalypse is the latest installment in the X-Men franchise, but it is earning among the worst reviews. Alice Through the Looking Glass is the sequel to Alice in Wonderland, which was a surprise $1 billion hit back in 2010. Neither film is expected to live up to its predecessor, but both are expected to be hits. This weekend last year, San Andreas opened with $54.59 million over three days. Apocalypse will top that over three days, while it might take Alice four days to get there. More...

Contest: Apocalypse Wow

May 19th, 2016

There are two films opening wide next week: X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass. Neither is earning good reviews, but one of them has to be the number one film of the weekend. I think Apocalypse is the clear favorite here and it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for X-Men: Apocalypse.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize of previously reviews DVD and / or Blu-rays. I grabbed a few more boxes from storage, so we can do winner's choice again. The choices are, two movies, one TV on DVD release, three single-disc kids DVDs, or two items from the mystery box. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

2016 Preview: May

May 1st, 2016

April started on a soft note and ended weak, but thanks to The Jungle Book, overall the month was actually really good. That's what happens when you get a surprise $300 million hit. This bodes well for May, which is both a slow month and a fantastic month. There are only four weekends and only eight movies coming out, but of those eight films, five have a shot at $100 million. The potential blockbusters are led by Captain America: Civil War, which is not only going to be the biggest hit of the month, but according to a Fandango survey, it is the most anticipated film of the summer. (On a side note, Finding Dory is the most anticipated family film of the summer and Ghostbusters is the most anticipated comedy of the summer. I was surprised by the last result.) Both Alice Through the Looking Glass and X-Men: Apocalypse have real shots at $200 million. One of them could get to $300 million, if they weren't opening against each other. Overall, the month looks excellent. Even better, last May there was only one monster hit, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and most analysts think Captain America: Civil War will beat it at the box office. (There's also the issue of the misalignment in the weekends, which hurt April, but will really help May.) More...