January 22nd, 2013
Like it did on the DVD sales chart, Ted led a trio of new releases that placed high on the Blu-ray sales chart. The film earned first place with 1.28 million units / $25.64 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 43%. That's very strong for a comedy, even one aimed at the prime demographic for Blu-ray.
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January 22nd, 2013
Ted led a trio of new releases that placed high on the DVD sales chart. It earned first place with 1.67 million units and $26.66 million, which was better than I anticipated.
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December 12th, 2012
SAG nominations were announced and there were only a few surprises to deal with. Leading the way for total nominations was The Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Les Miserables, all of which earned nominations in four of the six categories.
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December 10th, 2012
It's a terrible week on the home market from top to bottom, but for different reasons. There are a few really big releases at the top, Ted, Ice Age: Continental Drift, The Bourne Legacy, Girls: Season One, Futurama: Volume Seven. However, I am waiting for the final screener for all of them. (I did get a DVD screener for a couple.) After that glut of good releases, there's a sharp drop-off in sales potential. That doesn't mean there aren't other releases worth picking up, but I don't expect Following to sell 100,000 units on DVD or Blu-ray. It is the best release on this week's list and the winner of the Pick of the Week honor. On a side note, there are a ton of cheap releases with the word, "Django" in the title, obviously hoping to cash in on Django Unchained. There are also a lot of releases that I would describe as porn, or at least porn-lite. I assume those two trends are unrelated.
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November 1st, 2012
In what has to be one of the least surprising events of the year, Skyfall opened in first place on the international box office chart. It pulled in $83.05 million on 5,077 screens in 25 markets, this includes first place debuts in all 25 markets. It was surprisingly strong in its native U.K. with $32.41 million on 587 screens, which was the second best three-day opening in that market behind only Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2. The film was also huge in France with $9.70 million on 820 screens and in Russia with $8.27 million on 1,254 screens. In South Korea, the film made $6.02 million on 749 screens and in Brazil it earned $3.18 million on 537 screens. The film was also a multi-million dollar hit in a number of smaller markets. This includes $3.58 million on 116 screens in Denmark, $3.13 million on 179 in Norway, $2.82 million on 222 in Sweden, and 2.49 million on 217 in Poland. On average, the film was 30% stronger than Quantum of Solace's opening weekends in these market, and 76% higher than Casino Royale.
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October 4th, 2012
Well... we found out why the Chinese box office numbers were extra late this week. There was an accounting error in Looper's previously reported numbers and it took time to sort things out. Instead of making $23 million to $25 million, it made about $6 million. That's actually still really good and better than it performed here, relative to the size of the two markets, but it wasn't a monster hit. The wide gap in the initial reported number and the final figure is an embarrassment, but hopefully it will spur China to build the infrastructure needed to collect box office data faster and more accurately. China might be the most important international market, but studios can't invest money into making movies aimed more at a Chinese market if they can't trust the box office numbers they get. The other numbers we had were accurate leading to a total weekend haul of $22.85 million on 2,506 million in 17 markets. It wasn't a hit in all of them, as it only managed third place in Brazil with $955,000 on 332 screens. The film is just starting its international run, so it is hard to predict where it will end up, but so far most signs are very positive.
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September 26th, 2012
Resident Evil: Retribution remained in first place on the international chart with $29.83 million on 7,250 screens in 73 markets for a total of $103 million internationally. It is already the second best in the franchise internationally and while it might not become the number one film, it has made enough to ensure another installment. The film opened in first place in Germany with $3.40 million on 475 screens over the weekend for a total of $3.74 million, while it also topped the chart in Mexico with $3.55 million on 1,218. Its best market of the weekend was Japan, where it added $6.35 million on 775 screens over the weekend for a total of $28.23 million after just two weeks of release.
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September 19th, 2012
Resident Evil: Retribution debuted in top spot on the international chart with $49.61 million on 6,154 screens in 65 markets. The film opened in first place in a trio of major markets with Japan pulling in $8.63 million on 774 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.17 million. Russia was close behind with $8.37 million on 1,100 screens. It was was able to grab first place in Brazil with $3.15 million on 391. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in South Korea with $1.99 million on 368 screens over the weekend and a total opening of $2.44 million. It debuted in third place in Australia with $1.50 million on 175.
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September 13th, 2012
The Expendables 2 opened in China and that helped propel it into first place with $41.62 million on 5,930 screens in 48 markets for an international total of $157.29 million. Unfortunately, as it is usually the case, no numbers for China were released, but were likely more than half the film's weekend haul. It also opened in South Korea earning third place with $1.58 million on 394 screens over the weekend for a total of $1.81 million.
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September 10th, 2012
Yuck. The overall box office this past weekend was not only the worst of the year so far, but it was the worst we've seen in more than a decade. Not only did the box office have a decade of inflation, but also a decade of population growth, which makes this result even more depressing. The Possession was the only bright spot in the top ten. Both The Words and The Cold Light of Day missed the Mendoza Line during their opening weekend. Overall, the box office plummeted 35% to just $67 million. Compared to last year, the box office fell by 17%. It's a disaster. 2012 is still ahead of 2011 by 3.3% at $7.70 billion to $7.45 billion. Things will have to get better next weekend, so hopefully we will never have to think about this weekend again.
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September 6th, 2012
The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is often the worst weekend of the entire year at the box office. This certainly seems to be the case this year. There are two wide releases, or to be more accurate, one wide release, The Words, and one semi-wide release, The Cold Light of Day. Neither film is expected to top $10 million. The last time the number one film over the weekend earned less than $10,000,000 was way back in 2008 with the release of Bangkok Dangerous, which opened in the weekend after Labor Day. There is a slim chance The Words will earn less than Bangkok Dangerous did. This weekend last year wasn't actually pretty good with Contagion dominating the chart. There's almost no chance any film opening this weekend will match the $22.40 million that film earned. The top three films combined probably won't match that figure. 2012 will start the autumn with a pretty big fall.
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September 5th, 2012
Thanks to its opening in China, The Dark Knight Rises returned to the top of the international chart with $49.8 million on 10,000 screens in 64 markets. The film now has $577.7 million internationally and $1.009 billion worldwide, becoming just the twelfth film to reach that milestone. In China, the film earned $28.5 million on 4,100 screens, which was easily enough for first place. The film had to settle for second place in Italy with $4.95 million on 914 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.75 million.
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September 4th, 2012
There's good news and bad news for the Labor Day long weekend. Overall, the box office was a little stronger than predicted with The Possession having the second best Labor Day long weekend opening of all time. (Only Halloween had a stronger opening.) This helped the overall box office rise 7.0% from last weekend to $104 million. However, despite this performance, the overall weekend was softer than last year down 2.5% over the three-day portion of the weekend and 3.3% over the four-day portion of the weekend. Year-to-date, 2012 still maintains a lead of 2011 at $7.61 billion to $7.34 billion. The lead is down to 3.6% in terms of revenue and just 2.4% in terms of tickets sold. We might see a further drop in attendance, which would be a huge collapse after an incredibly strong spring and early summer.
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August 30th, 2012
It's the Labor Day long weekend, a weekend that a lot of families like to spend outdoors, or on a last minute vacation before school starts. It is generally a bad time to release a film, but three films hope to outperform the historical averages for the weekend. I don't think it will work. The Possession could win the weekend, but Lawless also has a shot. The other wide release, The Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure, doesn’t have a shot at top spot. It doesn't have a shot at the top ten. It does have a shot at breaking records, on the other hand. As for the holdovers, The Expendables has a shot at the threepeat, but that would be really bad news for the overall box office. Speaking of which, last year, none of the new wide releases were able to crack $10 million, which left The Help in first place. I don't think any film this year will top that film's weekend haul, but overall the depth is better this year and perhaps we can eke out a win in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 29th, 2012
The Expendables 2 remained in first place with $25.96 million on 5,672 screens in 33 markets for a total of $66.76 million. It debuted in first place in Spain with $2.45 million on 459 screens, which is significantly more than the original made in Spain when it opened. Meanwhile, it added $3.13 million on 815 screens in Russia, for a total of $14.22 million after two weeks of release in that market. This is more than its predecessor earned in total in Russia.
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August 27th, 2012
Ugh. That's really all I have to say. None of the new releases were able to make an impact at the box office; in fact, none of them even reached the top five. There was a new entrant in the top five, as The Dark Knight Rises rose to fifth place. That's how bad the box office was over the weekend. A film that's more than a month old returned to the top five. The best new release was Premium Rush, which only managed eighth place. Overall, the box office plummeted by 30% to just $97 million. Amazingly, this was still higher than the same weekend last year, albeit by just 4.6%. Year-to-date, 2012 maintains its lead over 2011. It is ahead of last year's pace by 4.2% at $7.43 billion to $7.13 billion.
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August 23rd, 2012
Last weekend there were seven films to earning more than $10 million. This weekend, it looks like none of the new releases will reach that mark, while there's a slim chance none of the holdovers will stay above that level either. Granted, it would take an epic collapse by The Expendables 2 to fail to top $10 million, but it is possible. Of the new releases, Premium Rush is the only one with a shot at $10 million. It has good reviews, but they probably won't be enough. I thought Hit and Run would be a disaster with critics, but its reviews are actually above 50% positive. On the other hand, its Wednesday opening was a disaster. Finally there's The Apparition. It is opening in less than 1000 theaters and was not screened for critics. Enough said. Last year was also terrible, so there a chance 2012 will squeak out a win.
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August 23rd, 2012
The Expendables 2 earned first place during its international debut with $23.01 million on 3,741 screens in 19 markets. It was led by Russia where it made $8.12 million on 804 during its opening weekend. It also topped the chart in Mexico ($3.32 million on 1,249) and in Italy ($1.91 million on 379). It only managed fourth place in the U.K. with $3.12 million on 451 screens. By comparison, The Expendables earned much less in Russia, Mexico, and Italy, but much more in the U.K. Overall, the sequel has made a little more than its predecessor, but it is too soon to tell where it will end up.
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August 20th, 2012
Apparently summer ended over the weekend. It didn't go out with a thud, but more just faded away. The Expendables 2 was able to earn first place, but missed even the low end of expectations. In fact, the only new release to not struggle as much as analysts were expecting was Sparkle, and even that film missed expectations, it just did so by a tiny margin. There is some good news. There was a lot of depth with seven films earning more than $10 million over the weekend and overall the box office only slipped 2.3% from last weekend hitting $139 million. This was actually 12% higher than the same weekend last year. Analysts were obviously hoping for something more, but at this point, a win is a win. Year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but that lead has shrunk to 3.3% at $7.22 billion to $6.99 billion. Attendance is only up by 2.1%, so if the rest of August and September don't pull their weight, we might see 2012 lose that lead entirely.
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August 19th, 2012
The Expendables 2 will enjoy a comfortable win at the box office this weekend, even though its debut number looks as though it will fall somewhat behind the first film in the franchise. Lionsgate currently has the film pegged at $28.75 million for the weekend, well ahead of The Bourne Legacy's $17 million second weekend. ParaNorman will scare up about $14 million for third place, and a total of seven films will top $10 million this weekend, including the two other debutants, Sparkle (which is set for $12 million, per Sony), and The Odd Life of Timothy Green (shooting for $10.9 million, according to Disney).
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August 16th, 2012
It looks like summer will be extended by one more week, as The Expendables 2 is tracking for an opening of close to $40 million, maybe a little more. Even better for the market, it isn't the only new release of the weekend. I think ParaNorman could be a solid hit in a counter-programming role. Not everyone agrees with me, on the other hand. ParaNorman is competing with The Odd Life of Timothy Green, but as a live action family film, it's chances are a lot weaker. The final new release is Sparkle, which only has a 50/50 chance of reaching the top five. Last year there were also four wide releases, but combined they made less than $40 million. The Expendables 2 could make more than that by itself. 2012 should finally break out of its losing streak.
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August 16th, 2012
The winners of our Bourne Bequest were determined and they are...
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August 15th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises remained in first place with $35.1 million on 12,000 screens in 58 markets over the weekend. After nearly a month in release, it has $446.6 million internationally and $836.2 million worldwide. It became just the 33rd film to reach $800 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but has yet to open in Italy, while it should have enough left to get to $900 million with relative ease, getting to $1 billion will be a whole lot harder.
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August 15th, 2012
2 Days in New York led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $11,971 in two theaters. This is well below its predecessor and it likely won't have the same legs either. The re-release of Max and the Junkman earned $11,264 in its lone theater. The overall number one film, The Bourne Legacy, cracked the $10,000 club with an average of $10,185. Red Hook Summer was right behind with an average of $10,018 in four theaters.
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August 13th, 2012
The Bourne Legacy was easily able to win the weekend box office race, finishing within $1 million of predictions. In fact, most of the top five finished within roughly $1 million of predictions. This helped the overall box office climb 16% from last weekend. However, the overall box office was still weak when compared to last year down 8.4%. 2012's lead over 2011 shrank to just 3.5% at $7.01 billion to $6.78 billion and if we don't turn things around soon, we might see 2012 relinquish the lead before the winter holiday season begins.
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August 12th, 2012
After another lengthy run for the country's number one film, we will have a new top movie this weekend thanks to a strong debut for The Bourne Legacy, which will beat The Dark Knight Rises after Batman spent three weekends atop the chart. Universal is predicting that their franchise reboot will pick up about $40.3 million this weekend, somewhat behind The Bourne Legacy's $69.2 million debut, but very creditable for movie that takes the franchise in a new direction. Even better for the overall market, The Campaign is predicted to post $27.4 million for Warner Bros., which will be enough for second place.
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August 9th, 2012
The Bourne Legacy should have no trouble dominating the box office this weekend and it might become the last $100 million hit of the summer. On the other hand, it might not be the only $100 million hit opening this week. The Campaign is an R-rated comedy, which should do better than most and at least has an outside shot at reaching the century club. Hope Springs is counter-programming aimed at a more mature target demographic and its chances over the weekend are not great, but its legs could be strong. Finally, there's Nitro Circus: The Movie 3D, which is only playing in about 800 theaters, but it could squeeze into the top ten. This week last year the new releases were led by The Help while a returning film, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, topped the chart. Neither film made $30 million over the weekend, which is something The Bourne Legacy should do with ease, so 2012 should pull out a win. Hopefully that is the case, because year-over-year, 2012 has been losing big time lately.
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August 3rd, 2012
The Bourne Legacy will dominate new releases next weekend, but will it live up to its predecessors? Regardless of the answer to that question, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Bourne Legacy.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Impostor on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Dirty Pretty Things on Blu-ray
Finally, one other entrant will be chosen regardless of what they predicted, and they will win the last copy of Darkness on Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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August 1st, 2012
July was another bad month with five of the seven films missing expectations. Only one matched expectations, or came close enough to call it a victory, while another film is too close to call. 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but that margin did shrink last month, despite the performance of The Dark Knight Rises, which earned $300 million during the month. Looking ahead to August, there are fourteen films opening wide, maybe fifteen, making it the busiest month in a long time. Of those releases, five or six have a shot at $100 million, while none will get much beyond that point. Maybe The Bourne Legacy will be a surprise hit and match the average of its predecessors, but most analysts wouldn't be willing to bet money on that. By comparison, last August only had two films that topped $100 million, Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Help. I don't think any film opening this August will match those two films, but we have much better depth this time around. Hopefully we will be able to extend our lead this month, unlike the last two months.
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