April 13th, 2016
It is a very slow week on the home market. The only first-run release is The Forest, which earned a single-digit Tomatometer Score. The best-selling release of the week is Justice League vs. Teen Titans which continues to prove animated D.C. is better than live-action D.C. As far as Pick of the Week contenders are concerned, there are a few releases that interest me, including Suspicion on Blu-ray. However, I went with The Lady in the Car with Glasses and a Gun on Blu-ray. I will admit it dances deep into the Style over Substance territory, but it's a style I have really got into.
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January 23rd, 2016
While some are blaming the storm for hurting Friday night box office numbers, I think it is wiser to point the finger at the reviews instead. So far, The Boy has earned the best reviews, but with a Tomatometer Score of just 23% positive, that's damning it with faint praise. At the box office, Dirty Grandpa did the best of the new releases, earning second place with $4.2 million. It's early in the year, but it is safe to say its 7% positive reviews will be among the worst of any 2016 release when the year is over. Its CinemaScore was just a B, which is bad. Remember, CinemaScore is based on ratings given to a movie by people who were interested enough to see it on opening day. Anything less than a B+ suggests poor word-of-mouth. It did earn about about 10% more than That Awkward Moment's opening day. Additionally, That Awkward Moment had to deal with The Super Bowl on Sunday, so Dirty Grandpa should have better legs and should pull in $11 million.
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January 21st, 2016
Three wide releases are coming out this week, all of which are expected to earn similar openings. None of which are expected to compete for the top five. The 5th Wave is the latest Young Adult Adaptation and as I'm writing this at about 10 am on Thursday, it is still the only new release with any reviews. Dirty Grandpa is the widest release of the week, but with no reviews, it is hard to judge how well it will do. Finally there's The Boy. If it can match The Forest, I'm sure STX Entertainment will be happy. The weakness in the new releases doesn't mean we won't have a new number one film, as The Revenant seems poised to climb to first place over the weekend. This weekend last year, American Sniper remained dominant with nearly $65 million. It's a near certainty that all three new releases won't make that much this year. There's a chance the top five combined won't make that much this year. 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 20th, 2016
As anticipated, Ride Along 2 earned first place over the long weekend earning more than it cost to make in just four days. The other two wide releases were less successful. Despite costing more to make, 13 Hours earned less than half Ride Along 2 opened with, while the less said about Norm of the North, the better. Star Wars: The Force Awakens was pushed into third place over the three-day weekend, but it rose to first place on the daily chart on Monday. It is not done yet. The overall, the three-day weekend was up 4.2% from last weekend; however, it was down 18% from last year. This is not surprising, as this weekend last year, American Sniper set the record for biggest January weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $693 million, giving 2016 an early lead over 2015. That lead was cut to 5.9% or $39 million and will likely be cut further next weekend. Hopefully it won't be entirely gone.
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January 14th, 2016
The winners of our Don't Go Into the Woods contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Forest opening weekend were...
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January 12th, 2016
Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned first place on the weekend chart for the fourth time and likely the last time. It was a close race, as The Revenant beat expectations; meanwhile, The Forest was very solid as counter-programming. The overall box office was $159 million, which is 28% less than last weekend, but 26% more than the same weekend last year. After just two weeks, 2016 is 19% / $70 million above 2015's pace. Granted, it is way too early to make any long terms predictions and next weekend will be brutal for 2016 in the year-over-year comparison, but every little bit now will help at the end of the year.
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January 10th, 2016
The Force Awakens will become the first movie to hit $800 million at the domestic box office today, according to Disney’s estimates released on Sunday. With a $41.6 million weekend, the film moves to $812 million in total domestically, becoming the second-highest-grossing Star Wars movie adjusted for inflation, ahead of The Empire Strikes Back’s inflation-adjusted $808 million. It should pass Avatar’s inflation-adjusted $826 million this week. Perhaps the biggest news of the weekend, however, comes from overseas.
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January 9th, 2016
The Revenant earned first place on Friday with $14 million at the box office, well ahead of Star Wars: The Force Awakens’s daily haul of $11 million. The Revenant did have two weeks of limited release and that might have a small positive effect on its internal multiplier this weekend. However, The Force Awakens is a true holdover and holdovers tend to climb much more on Saturday than new releases do. Both films should earn about the same over the three day weekend with $35 million to $38 million.
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January 7th, 2016
The big news this week was Star Wars: The Force Awakens being officially crowned the All-Time Domestic Box Office champion. It should follow-up that news with yet another first place finish on the weekend box office. There are two films trying to take its crown: The Forest and The Revenant. The Revenant is a very likely Oscar winner and has performed phenomenally well in limited release, so it has a real shot at box office success this weekend. On the other hand, The Forest is a low-budget horror film that is just hoping to land in the top five. This weekend last year was led by Taken 3 with just under $40 million over the weekend, while Selma earned second place with $11 million. The Force Awakens might make more than those two films combined, but even if it doesn't, the one-two punch of The Force Awakens plus The Revenant will give 2016 an easy win in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 1st, 2016
The only true wide release next week is The Forest, which will have to deal with competition from The Revenant, as well as Star Wars: The Force Awakens. However, it is the only true wide release of the week, so it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Forest.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two DVDs.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two DVDs.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two DVDs.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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January 1st, 2016
2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth.
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