July 14th, 2014
Under the Skin stars Scarlett Johansson, which gave the film a lot more star power than most limited releases have. On the other hand, the premise was a little out there, so much so that it really never had a shot at expanding significantly. It managed $2.5 million, which is great, especially considering so far this year only three limited releases have topped $10 million (The Grand Budapest Hotel, Chef, and very recently Belle). Does the film work as an art house film? Will it please more mainstream audiences?
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May 13th, 2014
It's a weird week on the home market. There are more first-run releases on this week's list than last week, as well as some TV on DVD releases and others. That said, it still feels very shallow. Even coming up with a list of ten new releases will include some filler. According to Amazon.com, I, Frankenstein is the biggest selling new release of the week. However, Her is the best new release of the week and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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March 19th, 2014
Despite expanding from 4 to 66 theaters, The Grand Budapest Hotel held on well enough to lead the per theater chart with ease. In fact, its average of $55,122 was the second best per theater average for the year, behind only its opening weekend. Bad Words came in second place with an average of $18,884 in six theaters. This is a good opening, but not one that suggests it could naturally expand wide. Fortunately, the film already has a wide release scheduled and as the ad campaign for the wide release ramps up, it should at least become a midlevel hit when compared to its production budget. Enemy was right behind with an estimated $18,000 in its lone theater. Le Week-End was the final film in the $10,000 club as it earned an average of $14,536 in three theaters during its opening weekend of release.
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March 2nd, 2014
The Oscars are being handed out this evening and as usual, we will be live-blogging the event. Here's the last look at the nominations with those chosen by our contest entrants as the likely winners in Bold. If I disagree with the consensus, they are in italics, and sharp-eyed readers will note there are no categories where that's true. Finally, if I am rooting for an underdog, they are underlined. There are only two categories where that is true. I want Chiwetel Ejiofor to win Best Lead Actor for his performance in 12 Years a Slave. I also want Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa to win for Best Hair and Make-up, because Dallas Buyers Club had a hair and make-up budget of $250. Yes it was effective, but the special effects make-up used in Bad Grandpa was just more difficult to pull off, even if the movie wasn't Oscar-bait. Regardless, I don't expect there to be many surprises at this year's awards.
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March 2nd, 2014
Even with awards shows dominating industry headlines this weekend, three movies, none of which are nominated for anything, will manage to top $20 million at the box office. Top of the pile will be Liam Neeson actioner Non-Stop, which will debut with a shade over $30 million. That's the best performance for a non-sequel movie Neeson has headlined. Not far behind, Son of God is projected to earn around $26.5 million this weekend, and Fox is projecting it to top the chart on Sunday. The third movie topping $20 million will be The LEGO Movie, which passes $200 million in the process in its 4th weekend in release.
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February 27th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We wrap up our look at the prestigious categories with the most prestigious of them all: Best Picture. Like last year, there were nine nominees. Unlike last year, none of them were completely out of left field. That's not to say they all have a legitimate shot at winning; there's definitely a favorite. However, politics could become an issue. I don't mean politics as in Democrat vs. Republican. I mean behind-the-scenes issues might play a bigger role than what is on the screen.
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February 25th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, starting with Best Original Screenplay. This race is twice as competitive as the Best Adapted Screenplay, by that I mean it is a two-way race for the Oscar and not a runaway race.
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February 9th, 2014
2014 is shaping up to be a good year at the box office. After excellent openings for Ride Along and Lone Survivor in January, February is getting off to a spectacular start thanks to a huge opening weekend for The LEGO Movie. Warner Bros. is projecting an opening of $69.1 million for the toy spin-off -- far and away the biggest weekend of the year so far, and the second-best February weekend ever, behind only The Passion of the Christ. Numbers like that guarantee a sequel or three, and boost a franchise that has already built an impressive following in the video market.
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February 5th, 2014
Tim's Vermeer led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $14,468 in four theaters. It was the only film to reach $10,000 on the per theater chart this weekend. Peter Brook: The Tightrope did make $10,301 in one theater, but that was over five days. Over the weekend, it pulled in $6,768.
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February 1st, 2014
WGAs handed out their awards on Saturday and depending on who you talk to, there were a couple of major upsets. There was certainly at least one upset, but the other awards are less surprising.
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January 22nd, 2014
The only film to top $10,000 on this week's per theater chart was Ride Along, which earned an average of $15,590. This is an amazing result for a January release. In fact, it would have been amazing for a limited release.
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January 19th, 2014
What could have been a close run thing at the box office this weekend has turned into a romp to victory for Ride Along, with the comedy set to break Cloverfield's record for biggest opening weekend in January with estimated three-day $41.2 million. The performance is all the more impressive for being delivered from just 2,663 theaters, and marks Universal's third consecutive MLK weekend win, following Mama last year and Contraband in 2012. With the studio's holdover, Lone Survivor, holding on to second place with $23.2 million in its second weekend the other three wide openers range from 3rd to 6th place in the charts.
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January 19th, 2014
Producers Guild of America announce the winners tonight, but it seems I forgot to upload the story when they announced their nominations. In my defense, they announced them on January 2nd. You don't make an announcement on January 2nd, not unless you are trying to bury a story. As for the actual nominations, there are very few differences between this group and others, except when it comes to documentaries. Then again, that's been the norm this year. No one seems to agree on what the best documentaries were.
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January 16th, 2014
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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January 14th, 2014
There was only one film in the $10,000 club, but that's one more than a lot of people thought there would be. Lone Survivor expanded wide earning $37.85 million in 2,876 theaters for an average of $13,161. That's awesome, especially for this time of year.
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January 14th, 2014
As expected, Lone Survivor won the race to first place on the box office this past weekend. However, it crushed predictions to an astounding degree. It wasn't enough. The overall box office was down to $140 million. Granted, that was less than 1% lower than last weekend and just over 1% lower than the same weekend last year, but it is still frustrating. Besides the number one film, there's not a lot of positive news to report. Year-to-date, 2014 is a little behind 2013 at $413 million to $436 million. Granted, it is far too soon to talk about end of year results, but you obviously would want a fast start rather than a slow start.
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January 13th, 2014
Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out the Golden Globe awards last night, and there were a few surprises in the mix. American Hustle led the way with three wins, which isn't a real surprise, but I think many thought another film would lead with three or more wins. The only other film to earn more than one award was Dallas Buyers Club at just two. That might give you a hint at what the big surprise was.
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January 10th, 2014
There is only one truly new wide release this weekend: The Legend of Hercules. This film is earning zero positive reviews and most analysts think it will miss the top five. Fortunately, there are a couple of limited releases expanding wide this weekend that should help compensate. Lone Survivor is the most obviously mainstream hit and it has been doing surprisingly well in limited release. Meanwhile, Her is probably too out there to be a mainstream hit, but its reviews suggest it should at least do well with those looking for Oscar-quality films. This weekend last year was the weekend Zero Dark Thirty expanded wide. It pulled in $24.44 million over the weekend, which is a figure Lone Survivor might match. Unfortunately for 2014, 2013 had much better depth at the box office, so even if the Lone Survivor does get to $25 million or beyond, it still looks like the year will continue lower than last year.
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January 7th, 2014
It was a slow week for new releases as none topped $10,000 on the per theater chart. There were some holdovers that performed well, led by Lone Survivor, which pulled in an average of $42,429 in two theaters. This is compared to $45,436 during its opening weekend. Such a small decline is great news for its upcoming wide expansion. August: Osage County was next with an average of $27,983 in five theaters, which is 22% lower than its opening average of $35,860. Its running tally is already at nearly half a million and it has potential to expand, especially if it continues to do well during Awards Season. The final film in the $10,000 club was Her with an average of $15,378 in 47 theaters. It is already at nearly $3 million after three weeks of release and it expands wide this weekend.
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January 5th, 2014
WGAs announced their nominations this weekend and there were a couple of surprises to talk about. The top of that list is 12 Years a Slave, which was deemed ineligible because it wasn't written under WGA jurisdiction. This makes using the WGAs as an Oscar guide less reliable. On the other hand, several Oscar favorites showed up as well, including American Hustle, Nebraska, and others that have picked up major nominations this year.
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January 5th, 2014
Given the weather conditions in half the country, this weekend couldn't have a more appropriate winner at the box office. Disney's Frozen takes top honors again in its 7th weekend in release after previously topping the chart the weekend of December 6th. The film is projected to earn $20.72 million this weekend, making it only the fourth film ever to earn more than $20 million at this stage in its theatrical run. Avatar, Titanic and Home Alone are the other three (and see full list of 7th weekends here). Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones was pushed into second spot with a decent $18.2 million opening.
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January 3rd, 2014
Technically, there's only one wide release next week, The Legend of Hercules. Unfortunately, it is expected to bomb. Fortunately, there are two limited releases expanding wide next week, Her and Lone Survivor. Lone Survivor is by far the most mainstream of these three films and as such, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Lone Survivor.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of Power Rangers Megaforce: The Mysterious Robo Knight on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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January 1st, 2014
It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
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December 20th, 2013
There are not a huge number of limited releases on this week's list, but all of the ones that have more than a few reviews on Rotten Tomatoes have outstanding reviews. Her isn't earning the best reviews, but it does have the best combined reviews and buzz and has the best shot at mainstream success. The Past could also expand wide enough to earn some measure of mainstream success, if it can translate its reviews into Awards Season glory.
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December 14th, 2013
Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces.
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December 1st, 2013
We had some good news and some bad news in November. The bad news is the overall weakness at the box office continued and 2013 lost its lead over 2012. Strong runs by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen did help it bounce back in the end, but 2013 is still going to have a tough time topping 2012. Looking forward to December, we find about a dozen wide releases, sort of. There are several films that are opening in limited release that are expected to expand wide by the end of the month, but I'm not sure that will be the case for all of them. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should be the easy winner this month and if it is a little lucky, it might even top its predecessor at the box office. There is a huge amount of hype surrounding Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues and it could double the first film's box office numbers. On the other hand, those two films might be the only two December wide releases to reach $100 million. There are a few that have the potential to get to the century mark, if they are big players during Awards Season. Obviously some of the films coming out this month will win awards, but there's already a lot of competition in theaters before the month begins. There were three $100 million movies last December, led by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, so while it could be close, it looks like December will lose in the year-over-year comparison. This is really bad news, as 2013 can't afford to go out on a losing streak if it wants to top 2012.
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