December 12th, 2016
This is a strange week on the home market. We have one of the biggest domestic hits of the year, Suicide Squad, but it is one of the worst movies I’ve seen this year. (Granted, I’ve done fewer reviews this year and skipped a lot of terrible looking movies, like Independence Day: Resurgence, Warcraft, Gods of Egypt, Allegiant... Ben Hur, The Huntsman, The Legend of Tarzan. I could keep going. Wow! It was a bad year for $100 million movies.) After Suicide Squad, the next biggest release according to Amazon is the Chicago Cubs 2016 World Series Collector's Edition Blu-ray. That’s a huge drop in sales. As far as quality is concerned, I have to give a shout out to that World Series Blu-ray. Real fans want full games and this one provides them. On the other hand, I personally find baseball boring to watch. Unfortunately, there’s no one release that stands out as an obvious Pick of the Week, but instead we have a lot of releases that are close, but wouldn’t be close enough during a good week. The Twilight Zone: The Complete Series on Blu-ray is the best, assuming you didn’t grab the individual seasons when they came out.
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October 18th, 2016
It’s a bad week for the home market. There are only two first-run releases and neither of them are worth picking up. There’s not a lot of limited releases, TV on DVD releases, etc. to make up the gap. However, there is one truly great release, Trilogía de Guillermo del Toro from The Criterion Collection. The Blu-ray costs a lot, but it is a must have for fans of Guillermo Del Toro, especially his earlier Spanish-language work: Cronos, The Devil’s Backbone, and Pan’s Labyrinth.
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September 27th, 2016
It is a pretty good week on the home market with a few releases worth picking up. The biggest of these is Central Intelligence, but while it is worth picking up, it isn’t a contender for Pick of the Week. There are some smaller releases that were up for that title, including The Shallows, An American Werewolf in London and The Innocents. However, in the end, I went with Captain America: Civil War. The Blu-ray screener arrived late, and I held off on naming it Pick of the Week when it came out for that very reason.
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July 17th, 2016
After a huge amount of speculation on how it would perform at the box office, Ghostbusters is coming in right in the middle of (a very wide range of) expectations. Sony is projecting a $46 million debut for the supernatural comedy, which is far from the disaster many had feared, but some way short of the top tier. It’s also not enough for first place, even though The Secret Life of Pets will be down 52% in its second weekend.
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July 15th, 2016
Ghostbusters earned $3.4 million in previews last night, which is ... a number. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been a film like Ghostbusters to come out this summer, so it is hard to judge that figure. For example, The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist also pulled in $3.4 million during its previews and just over $40 million during its opening weekend. However, there’s not a lot of crossover between the two films, outside of the ghosts. Perhaps a better comparison is Central Intelligence which is an action / comedy and the “/ comedy” matters. That film earned $1.84 million during its previews and if Ghostbusters has the same multiplier, it will make $66 million. Ghostbusters did have louder buzz, even if a lot of that buzz was the “Feminists ruin everything” crowd whining, but it also has better reviews. On the other hand, Ghostbusters is part of a franchise, which is going to be more front-loaded. How about Independence Day: Resurgence? It’s a long-delayed sequel, so it has that in common. It earned $4 million on debut night, so if Ghostbusters has the same legs, it will make $35 million over the weekend, although the word-of-mouth is much better here. So we have a range of $35 million to $66 million, or almost exactly what we had for our prediction. We have learned nothing. Fortunately, we will have a much better picture this time tomorrow when Friday’s estimates are in.
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July 12th, 2016
As expected, The Secret Life of Pets earned first place on the weekend box office chart. However, almost no one was expecting it to dominate the way that it did with $104.35 million. There are some calling this film the best opening for a non-franchise animation film, but let’s face the facts... Universal started work on two or three sequels as soon as Friday’s Estimates came in. Meanwhile, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates has a good opening in the role of counter-programming with $16.63 million. Overall, the box office pulled in $217 million, which was 14% more than last weekend. More importantly, it is 1.3% more than the same weekend last year. Granted, this is lower than ticket price inflation, but since most people assumed the weekend would suffer a serious decline, this should be seen as a major victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 grew a tiny bit hitting 2.4% at $6.00 billion to $5.86 billion.
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July 7th, 2016
Independence Day: Resurgence remained in first place on the international chart with $40.2 million in 64 markets for totals of $177.0 million internationally and $249.9 million worldwide. Its biggest new market was Spain, where it earned $1.7 million. Meanwhile, its biggest holdovers were China ($11.64 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $66.67 million) and the U.K. ($2.69 million in 603 theaters for a two-week total of $12.16 million). Overall, the movie is doing fine, but the film set up an obvious sequel, so the studio was obviously hoping for more than just fine.
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July 6th, 2016
The Fourth of July weekend went very well as two of the three new releases beat expectations. However, none of them were able to top Finding Dory, which earned its third win in a row. The Legend of Tarzan was very close in second place, which surprised a lot of analysts, but there might be a logical reason for its success. The Purge: Election Year more than tripled its production budget during its opening three-day weekend, so there’s no chance the studio isn’t giddy over that. The only real disappointment was The BFG, which got lost in the crowd. The overall box office was up from last week, which is a pleasant surprise. Granted, it grew by just under 1.0% to $192 million over the three-day weekend. More importantly, it was 41% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. Add in Monday, and the year-to-date lead rose to $120 million or 2.2% at $5.71 billion to $5.58 billion.
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July 2nd, 2016
The Purge: Election Year earned first place with on Friday with $14.47 million during its opening day. This is impressive for film that cost $10 million to make, but it is below the opening day for the first film. The holidays should help its internal multiplier, as will the critical reception. While its reviews have slipped below the overall positive level, they are still the best for the franchise. Additionally, its CinemaScore was B+, again the best for the franchise. This puts the film on pace for just under $40 million during its four-day weekend. This is very likely more than the film’s combined budget, so if it can make this much during the rest of its theatrical run, it will break even just on its domestic numbers.
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June 30th, 2016
It's the first weekend of July, which means I should probably start the monthly preview. (I'm kidding. Although, I did have a computer crash this morning and lost a few hours of work. Save early. Save often.) Like last week, Finding Dory should earn first place over the weekend, while there are a trio of wide releases hoping to take advantage of the holiday. The BFG is the biggest in terms of box office potential. The Legend of Tarzan is the biggest in terms of production budget. Finally, The Purge: Election Year is the biggest in terms of profitability. This weekend last year, Inside Out climbed over Jurassic World for first place, as both films earned just under $30 million, Finding Dory will make almost that much combined.
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June 30th, 2016
Independence Day: Resurgence started its international run in first place with $102.1 million in 57 markets. That's the good news. That bad news is that its biggest market was China, where it only managed second place with $36.09 million, including previews. In most of the rest of the world, the film did no better than it did here, relative to the size of the market. South Korea helped it out with a first place, $5.45 million opening on 926 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.49 million. It opened in second place in the U.K. with $6.91 million in 610 theaters, which is no better than its opening here. The film cost a lot to make, so it needs to do better than this to be seen as a financial hit.
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June 30th, 2016
The winners of our Surge of Independence contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Independence Day: Resurgence opening weekend were...
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June 28th, 2016
As predicted, Finding Dory repeated as the box office champion and came very close to matching our prediction with $72.96 million over the weekend. This is well above Independence Day: Resurgence's opening of $41.04 million. The Shallows was great as a low-budget horror film. The other two films... let's not talk about them. Overall, the box office fell 19% from last weekend to $188 million; however, this is to be expected, given how big Finding Dory opened. The weekend box office was even better than the same weekend last year, albeit by only 2.3%, which is not enough to keep up with inflation. Likewise, the year-over-year comparison is not great either. 2016 still leads 2015, but only by $5.38 billion to $5.31 billion, which is a lead of just 1.2%. Hopefully this weekend's win is a sign of things turning around, but I'm not so sure of that.
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June 26th, 2016
Independence Day: Resurgence is getting crushed at the box office this weekend, thanks in part to a strong second weekend for Finding Dory, but mostly because it failed where the original succeeded. Back in 1996, Independence Day pretty much invented the event movie, as it became the film everyone wanted to watch over the July 4 holiday weekend. Its $50.2 million 3-day weekend fell fractionally short of the then-record $52.8 million earned by Batman Forever over its opening weekend in June, 1995, but the $96.1 million it earned over its first five days was unprecedented. Resurgence had a storied past to live up to, and is falling well short.
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June 25th, 2016
Finding Dory held on to first place on Friday and that’s not good news, at least not for the box office as a whole. The film pulled in $23.21 million last night, which puts it on track to earn approximately $76 million. We predicted $74 million, so I’m calling this a victory. This will give the film close to $290 million after just ten days of release and puts it on pace to reach $300 million late Monday / early Tuesday. It will obviously hit $400 million at this pace, and it could become the first film of 2016 and the first animated film of all time to reach the $500 million milestone. That’s not a sure thing, but I think it’s at least 50/50 at this point.
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June 24th, 2016
Independence Day: Resurgence started its box office run with $4 million during Thursday previews. That's not good. That's twice as much as the $2 million Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earned a few weeks ago, but half as much as the $8.2 million X-Men: Apocalypse earned the week before that. It is identical to Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, which opened last summer. If you compare its opening to all three films, taking into account Out of the Shadows' younger target audience and Apocalypse's Fanboy nature, then Resurgence will likely opened with between $50 million and $60 million. Hopefully it is performing better internationally.
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June 23rd, 2016
This is the last weekend in June and there are three wide releases hoping to challenge Finding Dory for top spot. I don’t think any of them will come close. Independence Day: Resurgence is the only new release with a shot at first place and it should come out on top on Friday. It better win on Friday, or the month will end on a soft note. The Shallows and Free State of Jones will be fighting for fourth place. The Shallows cost less than $20 million, so a fourth place finish wouldn’t be a bad start. On the other hand, Free State of Jones cost $65 million to make, so a fourth place finish would be a disaster. Also opening this week is The Neon Demon. It isn’t opening wide, but it is opening wide enough to compete for a slot in the top ten. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases that earned less than $50 million combined. On the other hand, the top two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out both earned more than $50 million. Can the top four this year out-earn the top four last year? I think they can. We might get an actual win in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 22nd, 2016
The winners of our Remember Me contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Finding Dory opening weekend were...
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June 17th, 2016
Next weekend is the last weekend in June and unfortunately for the two wide releases coming out, the buzz for these films hasn't really grown. Independence Day: Resurgence is going to be the number one new release, although it likely won't earn first place. Free State of Jones could become STX Entertainment's biggest hit, but that's not saying much. Independence Day: Resurgence could earn more during its opening weekend than Free State of Jones earns during its box office run. As such, Independence Day: Resurgence is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Independence Day: Resurgence.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize of previously reviews DVD and / or Blu-rays. I grabbed a few more boxes from storage, so we can do winner's choice again. The choices are, two movies, one TV on DVD release, three single-disc kids DVDs, or two items from the mystery box. Items from the mystery box are first come, first served, as I'm nearly out of them.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 1st, 2016
May was great, as long as you don't compare it to last May. Captain America: Civil War was a monster hit and is closing in on $400 million, while both X-Men: Apocalypse and The Angry Birds Movie will earn over $100 million. Looking ahead, every week in June, there is one movie that should top $100 million; however, only Finding Dory is expected to make more than $200 million. In fact, that film is expected to make close to $400 million domestically and over $1 billion worldwide. Last June, there were two monster hits, Inside Out and Jurassic World, plus one $100 million hit, Spy. I don't see how 2016 will top that. Even if every film with a shot at $100 million gets to that milestone, 2016 still might not top last year's pace. Fortunately, 2016 does have a large lead and that could be enough to keep 2016 ahead of 2015's pace in the year-over-year competition. It could be really close at the end of the month, on the other hand.
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