December 14th, 2016
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. This could mean the Oscar race will be a lot closer than in past years. This time around Manchester by the Sea led the way with four nominations.
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December 5th, 2016
There are a few releases on this week’s list that are worth picking up. The Secret Life of Pets is by far the biggest release of the week. That said, Don’t Think Twice is the best and the Blu-ray is our Pick of the Week.
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November 15th, 2016
There are several prime releases on this week’s Home Market report. This includes the biggest film of the week, Finding Dory, which was previously named Pick of the Week. I suspect a lot of people reading this have pre-ordered the Blu-ray already. Other contenders for Pick of the Week include Game of Thrones: Season Six and Rush: Time Stands Still on Blu-ray. I’m awarding Pick of the Week to Game of Thrones, while Rush gets Puck of the Week, for best Canadian release.
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September 7th, 2016
Star Trek Beyond climbed into first place for the first time in its run with $37.0 million in 40 markets for totals of $131.1 million internationally and $285.4 million worldwide. The film earned first place in China with a total opening of $30.92 million, including previews. It was not as strong in Brazil, where it earned $1.6 million on 479 screens. The film is doing well enough that it should break even, eventually, but it is not a truly monster hit.
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August 31st, 2016
Jason Bourne returned to first place with $56.2 million on 10,247 screens in 62 markets for totals of $197.73 million internationally and $347.01 million worldwide. The film earned first place in China with $23.96 million over the weekend for a six-day opening of $49.13 million. The entire six day opening is included in the weekend number. Its total in China is already better than the lifetime totals for any other film in the franchise. The film wasn’t quite as potent in Mexico, but it still did well earning first place with $1.53 million over the weekend, which is the best opening in the franchise.
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August 25th, 2016
The Secret Life of Pets rose to first place with $43.8 million on 12,049 screens in 55 markets for totals of $327.20 million internationally and $674.03 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in Russia with $9.92 million in 1,284 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.24 million, including previews.
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August 17th, 2016
Suicide Squad saw its numbers fall dramatically, but still held onto top spot on the international chart with $58.7 million in 62 markets. The film’s totals rose to $242.5 million internationally and $465.1 million worldwide. The film’s two biggest new markets were Argentina, where it earned $2.5 million, and Italy, where it pulled in $2.15 million. Its best holdover was the U.K., where it remained in first place despite falling 62% to $5.52 million in 587 theaters for a two-week total of $28.90 million. At this pace, the film will be over $500 million worldwide before the weekend, while it is on track for $750 million worldwide in total. That should be enough to break even before its home market run.
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August 16th, 2016
The overall box office was a little weaker than expected with Suicide Squad falling nearly as fast as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did. On the other hand, Sausage Party opened better than expected earning a solid second place. Overall, the box office pulled in $172 million over the weekend, which is 25% smaller than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, the box office was 16% higher and that’s the most important number. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $7.43 billion, putting it 5.3% ahead of last year’s pace. The box office just needs to maintain its $380 million lead throughout the rest of the summer to be considered a success.
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August 11th, 2016
Before we talk about the weekend predictions... If you can read this, it means my transfer worked well enough and I can do work from my parents house while pet-sitting. I will be at my parents place for three weeks looking after their dog and cat. I was at their house for less than 30 minutes before stepping into a puddle of dog drool. It is going to be a very long three weeks. ... As for the releases for the week, they are all amazing. The film earning the weakest reviews at the moment is Sausage Party, which is earning 82% positive reviews. 82% positive is the weakest of the three wide releases. That's amazing. On the other hand, it won't be the biggest release of the week. Pete’s Dragon has a better than 50/50 chance at reaching $100 million in total; however, as a family film, it will start relatively slow, but have good legs. Finally, there’s Florence Foster Jenkins, which is an early Oscar contender. It is not opening in a lot of theaters, so it is going to need great word-of-mouth to thrive. None of these new releases will match last year’s number one film, Straight Outta Compton, so it will be up to Suicide Squad to keep 2016 on the winning track. I think it will collapse by more than 60%, but 2016 has a lot better depth than 2015 and it will come out on top.
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August 10th, 2016
As expected, Suicide Squad easily won the international box office race pulling in $132 million in 57 markets. However, its results in individual markets were mixed when compared to its domestic opening, as well as when compared to Batman v Superman. For example, the film earned first place in Russia with $11.42 million over the weekend, while BvS opened with $7.84 million. It is also a little better than its debut here, given the size of the two markets, and the slumping rubles. On the other hand, the film managed $13.9 million in the U.K., compared to BvS’s opening of $20.66 million. Likewise, a $13.9 million opening in the U.K. is equivalent to about $90 million here, which is much less than its debut here. That’s still a huge opening, but not a monster opening. BvS finished with over $500 million internationally; if Suicide Squad finishes with just under $400 million internationally, it will break even, so the studio can’t be too upset. They could yell, “Damn the critics, full speed ahead.” and let the D.C. Extended Universe turn into another Transformers. Hit after hit, but critically reviled.
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August 9th, 2016
Overall, the weekend lived up to expectations, with Suicide Squad doing a little better than expected at the expense of some of its competition. For example, Jason Bourne had one of the worst sophomore stint declines of the summer. The overall box office rose 20% from last weekend hitting $229 million. Suicide Squad earned more this weekend than the entire box office earned this weekend last year, so it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year growth was stunning at 73%. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 grow by more than $100 million hitting 5.3% at $7.16 billion to $6.80 billion.
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August 7th, 2016
One of the most talked-about debuts of the year is shaping up to be one of the better ones. Suicide Squad will open with about $135 million, according to Warner Bros., easily the biggest weekend in August, beating Guardians of the Galaxy’s $94.3 million in 2014. It’s also the 3rd-best weekend in 2016, and should earn a little more than Deadpool’s $132 million debut. In spite of these awesome stats, there’s about as much negative press for the film as positive, and some of it not entirely fair.
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August 6th, 2016
As expected, Suicide Squad broke the record for the biggest day in August with $65.13 million on Friday. Its opening day to preview multiplier was 3.17, which is not that much worse than the 3.28 earned by Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014. This is surprising, as Suicide Squad’s reviews have fallen to just 26% positive, while Guardians of the Galaxy earned 91% positive reviews. You would think word-of-mouth would tank Suicide Squad. Granted, it is just one day and perhaps it will fall as fast as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did throughout the rest of the weekend. Or perhaps moviegoers liked the movie significantly more than critics did. Its CinemaScore was a B+, which is not good, but not terrible. Or perhaps the lack of A-list comic book characters means it wasn’t able to get the average moviegoer as excited as they were for BvS, so it won’t be as front-loaded despite the worse reviews. Given this opening day, the film is on pace for $137 million, according to our model, which is on the very high end of expectations. That said, things might change tomorrow when we get the weekend estimates: the model’s range of uncertainty goes from $119 million at the low end to $154 million at the high end.
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August 4th, 2016
Before we talk about the weekend predictions... Warner Bros. owns D.C. Comics and a 30% share in Rotten Tomatoes. So accusing Rotten Tomatoes of having an anti-D.C. bias is silly. Starting a petition to shut down Rotten Tomatoes is a sign you really need a more productive hobby. I suggest Magic: The Gathering. ... Moving on... Suicide Squad is the last major release of the summer. Unfortunately, its reviews are among the worst of any $100 million movie released this summer. The counter-programming this week is Nine Lives, a talking animal / body swap movie that still has no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Many analysts think it will fail to reach the top five during its opening weekend. This weekend last year was the weekend Fantastic Four opened. Suicide Squad should crush that movie at the box office. In fact, it should earn more than the top ten earned last year.
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August 4th, 2016
Jason Bourne opened in first place on the international chart with $50.74 million in 5,006 theaters in 48 markets. There were two markets that had a claim for biggest opening for the film: South Korea and the U.K. The film earned third place in South Korea with $8.02 million on 826 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.39 million. Meanwhile in the U.K., it earned second pace with $10.09 million in 561 theaters. The film earned first place in Australia with $5.85 million on 554 screens. Compared to the biggest hit in the franchise, The Bourne Ultimatum, these results were mixed. On the one hand, Ultimatum finished with less than $15 million in South Korea during its total run there, so an opening of over $11 million is amazing. On the other hand, Ultimatum opened with nearly $13 million in the U.K., which is close to 30% more than Jason Bourne’s opening. It will take a few more openings, plus a look at the film’s legs, to tell where it has finished.
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August 4th, 2016
The winners of our Bourne Free contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Jason Bourne opening weekend were...
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August 3rd, 2016
Don’t Think Twice repeated as champion of the theater average chart. It expanded from 1 to 5 theaters but still earned a very healthy average of $31,022. It will expand further. Indignation was the best of the new limited releases, earning an average of $23,281 in 4 theaters, while Equity was close behind with an average of $20,609 in 4 theaters. The overall number one film, Jason Bourne, was next with an average of $14,708. Hieronymus Bosch, Touched by the Devil earned $12,064 in 1 theater over the weekend and $19,076 from Wednesday through Sunday. A couple of documentaries rounded out the $10,000 club. Miss Sharon Jones earned $10,323 in 1 theater, while Gleason managed an average of $10,176 in 9 theaters.
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August 2nd, 2016
There was no surprise at the top of the weekend box office chart, as Jason Bourne easily won with $59.22 million. This was on the high end of expectations, but not quite as strong as Star Trek Beyond’s opening last weekend. Both of the other two new releases, Bad Moms and Nerve, also did well. In fact, none of the films we talked about before the weekend missed expectations. The overall box office was down a little compared to last weekend, but a 3.1% decline is hardly noteworthy. More importantly, the box office was 30% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 nearly double to $260 million or 4.0%. Being ahead $6.84 billion to $6.58 billion at this point of the year is a good position to be in, but it wouldn’t take a major collapse for 2016 to fall behind 2015 by year’s end.
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July 31st, 2016
When it comes to “star power” in Hollywood, I’ve been a skeptic ever since we launched our Bankability Index, and started looking at the real influence a single actor has on the performance of a film. With some notable exceptions (Tom Cruise and Sandra Bullock chief among them these days), actors generally don’t move the box office dial much when they appear in a generic film. But this weekend’s opening of Jason Bourne shows what the combination of the right actor in the right role can do. In spite of virtually identical reviews to 2012’s The Bourne Legacy, the new film, a franchise un-re-boot if you will, starring Matt Damon in the role he made iconic, will post a very solid $60 million this weekend. To be fair, that’s a bit behind the inflation-adjusted openings of The Bourne Ultimatum and The Bourne Supremacy, but it’s far better than the $38 million earned by Legacy when it debuted.
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July 30th, 2016
Jason Bourne dominated the Friday box office chart, earning $22.71 million. I’ve seen reports that this is the biggest opening day for a Matt Damon movie, but The Bourne Ultimatum did better with $24.67 million. That film also earned much better reviews than this film did, so it likely won’t have the same legs. It did earn an A- with CinemaScore, so that will help a little. It will likely have similar legs to Star Trek Beyond. Beyond did earn better reviews, but Star Trek has a bigger fanboy factor, which hurt its legs. That will give the film $60 million over the weekend, more or less.
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July 29th, 2016
Jason Bourne pulled in $4.3 million in previews last night, which is a little better than the $4 million Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation earned during its previews this time last year. Rogue Nation opened with $55.52 million and if Jason Bourne can have a similar multiplier, then it will open with $60 million at the box office. That’s probably a little too optimistic, but it does look like it will beat our prediction by a few million.
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July 28th, 2016
The month of July comes to an end this weekend and there are three wide releases hoping the month goes out on a high note. Jason Bourne is the only one with a shot at first place, while Bad Moms is looking to become a solid counter-programming hit. Meanwhile, Nerve opened on Wednesday and it just doesn’t want to slip between the cracks. As far as holdovers are concerned, Star Trek Beyond's daily numbers are average for the summer, but that will still be enough to hit the century mark over the weekend. It won’t be the only film to reach $100 million over the weekend. This weekend last year was led by Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation with $55.52 million. I don’t think Jason Bourne will top that, but since the second best film, Vacation, made less than $15 million, I think 2016 will win on depth.
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July 27th, 2016
The winners of our Beyond a Reasonable Doubt contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Star Trek Beyond opening weekend were...
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July 23rd, 2016
If Jason Bourne doesn’t win the box office race next weekend, then something strange has happened. Because of this, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Jason Bourne.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of the TV mini-series Confirmation on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed TV on DVD release.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 1st, 2016
It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation.
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April 21st, 2016
Thriller starring Matt Damon and Tommy Lee Jones, directed by Paul Greengrass, opens July 29 ... Full Movie Details.
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