December 16th, 2014
It is getting very close to Christmas and while this means there are more and more people shopping, it also means the new releases are less likely to stand out in a sea of sales. The biggest release of the week is Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, which is coming out on a 3D Blu-ray Combo Pack. However, it is also one of the worst big releases of the year. There are some releases that are contenders for Pick of the week, including Extant: Season 1 on DVD or Blu-ray, Tootsie on Blu-ray, and The Americans: Season 2 on DVD. In the end, I went with The Skeleton Twins on Blu-ray.
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November 20th, 2014
Interstellar remained in first place with $107.9 million in 63 markets over the weekend for totals of $225.8 million internationally and $322.7 million worldwide. This might be enough to cover the film's production budget, but probably not. That said, by this time next week, its worldwide total will be close to $500 million, which should put the film in the black. This weekend the film opened in first place in China with $42.67 million during its five-day opening. Perhaps more impressively, the film grew by 6% in South Korea helping it remain in first place with $13.13 million on 1,410 screens over the weekend for a total of $35.24 million after two weeks of release. It didn't hold up quite as well in the U.K., but still remained in first place with $5.91 million on 576 screens over the weekend for a total of $19.11 million.
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November 18th, 2014
There was some good news and bad news over the weekend. The good news was Dumb and Dumber To, which managed a stronger than expected opening, despite its reviews. The bad news was Beyond the Lights, which couldn't turn its reviews into box office success. That said, the good outweighed the bad and overall the box office was quite strong. It was still down 11% from last weekend to $140 million, but that's still 12% more than the same weekend last year. 2014 remains behind 2013's pace by 3.4% or $310 million at $8.72 billion to $9.03 billion, but every little victory will help soften the blow at the end of the year.
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November 13th, 2014
As expected, Interstellar opened in first place on the international chart earning $82.90 million on 14,800 screens in 62 markets during its opening weekend. As you may or may not know, we introduced a new comprehensive look at the international numbers, so there's little more than needs to be said here. I will point out that the film's opening in South Korea was particularly strong at $12.46 million on 1,310 screens over the weekend, for a total opening of $14.21 million. The film also opened in first place in the U.K., with $8.53 million on 1,298 screens, which is about on par with its domestic opening, given the relative size of the two markets. Russia was close behind with $8.00 million on 1,800 screens. The film opened in China this week and those numbers should help the film remain in first place next weekend.
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November 6th, 2014
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles roared into first place with $34.9 million in 31 markets over the weekend for a running tally of $244.2 million internationally and $434.7 million worldwide. This includes a first place, $26.52 million opening in China. This is the film's last major market opening until it debuts in Japan in February. The film is aiming for $500 million worldwide by that time, but it is hard to tell how long a film's legs in China will be.
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November 2nd, 2014
Halloween weekend will be fought to the finish at the box office, with newcomer Nightcrawler and horror flick Ouija neck and neck, based on Sunday’s projections. Open Road’s 3-day projected number for Nightcrawler is $10,909,000, which technically gives it the edge over Universal’s $10,900,240 prediction for Ouija, but Ouija as of this morning, so it will all come down to whether Nightcrawler can win Sunday by a large enough margin to steal the race at the end. The tracking we’re seeing suggests that Ouija will just squeak out a win, but it could still go either way.
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October 29th, 2014
Annabelle rose from fifth to first place on the international market with $26.5 million in 62 markets for an international total of $126.7 million after a month of release. Obviously there will be another installment in this franchise. This past weekend, the film dominated Latin America earning first place in Mexico with $7.61 million on 2,742 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.87 million. This was double the original film's opening in that market. The film also earned top spot in Argentina ($1.4 million on 202 screens) and in Peru ($1.3 million). The film was pushed into second place in Brazil, but still managed $2.13 million on 388 screens over the weekend for a three-week total of $11.35 million.
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October 22nd, 2014
Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy return to top spot on the international chart this past weekend, it reached two major milestones along the way. Over the weekend, it pulled in $23.1 million in 22 markets for totals of $404.8 million internationally and $732.6 million worldwide. The film earned $37.97 million in China, but that was for the full week, giving it $69.04 million after ten days of release. The film has yet to open in Italy and it might have a shot at $800 million worldwide by the time it ends its run there.
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October 21st, 2014
The weekend box office was a little softer than expected, with Fury earning first place, but with much less than some were expecting. I was a little more conservative and I was still off by close to $10 million. The rest of the top five, on the whole, were also not quite as strong as expected, so the overall box office fell 11% from last weekend. However, it was 26% higher than the same weekend last year, which is the much more important figure. 2014 is still behind 2013 by more than $300 million, or 3.6%, at $8.05 billion to $8.36 billion, but if we can close the gap a little bit each week, we can at least make it a respectable race in the end.
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October 16th, 2014
Dracula Untold rose to first place with $33.9 million in 42 markets for a two-week total of $62.6 million. This week's biggest new market was Russia, where it pulled in first place with $9.81 million on 1,068 screens. It opened in second place in South Korea with $2.65 million on 477 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.29 million. Mexico led the holdovers with $2.78 million on 1,624 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $9.30 million in that market.
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October 9th, 2014
Breakup Buddies led the way in China and overall with a weekend total of $38.0 million over the weekend for a six-day total of $94.13 million. That's fantastic start for a local film in this market.
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October 7th, 2014
As expected, Gone Girl won the race for top spot on the box office chart this weekend. However, while it earned more than expected, Annabelle still managed to make it a really close race. These two films, as well as the rest of the top five, all beat predictions and this lead to the overall box office growing 38% to $147 million. More impressively, this was 16% better than the same weekend last year. I was not expected 2014 to come out ahead on the year-over-year comparison, which makes this win so much more spectacular. Year-to-date, 2014 is still behind 2013 by a substantial margin of $370 million or 4.6% at $8.05 billion to $7.68 billion.
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October 2nd, 2014
The first weekend in October promises to be better than the average weekend in September was, but then again, it would practically have to. Gone Girl is aiming for first place and most analysts think it will get there. On the other, Annabelle has an outside shot at top spot over the weekend. That seems unlikely, but thanks to its genre, it has a better shot at earning first place on Friday's daily chart. The final wide release of the week is Left Behind, which as it turns out isn't opening truly wide. The buzz is so bad that some expect the film to open below the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Gravity opened in first place with $55.79 million. No film is going to open with that much money. In fact, all three wide releases combined might not make that much. 2014 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison, but frankly we should all be used to that by now.
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October 1st, 2014
The Maze Runner easily won the race for top spot on the international chart with $28.8 million in 62 markets for a three-week total of $92.4 million. This is already enough to cover its production budget, so the studio should be very, very happy. The film remained in first place in South Korea with $4.37 million on 655 screens over the weekend for a total of $11.94 million after two weeks of release. It also topped the charts in Russia with $3.13 million on 1,486 screens for a two-week total of $10.49 million. The film has yet to open in Italy, the U.K., Germany, France, Japan, and others. It should surpass $200 million internationally and $300 million worldwide before it is done. That is excellent for a film that cost $34 million to make.
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September 30th, 2014
September is over and while it got off to a bad start, a really, really, truly terrible start, it actually ended on a bit of a strong note. Granted, no film has yet to reach $100 million, but The Maze Runner and The Equalizer both could get there in the end. As for October, we might go another month without a $100 million hit. There are a couple of films that have the potential to reach the century mark, Gone Girl and Fury. Hopefully they will get there, but given the recent box office woes, it is probably best to keep expectations low. Last October, there were two films that earned more than $100 million. Bad Grandpa just made it passed that mark. On the other hand, Gravity was a monster hit earning nearly $275 million. It you compare its run to this year's batch of films, it only ranks behind Guardians of the Galaxy. ... There's no way any film opening this month is going to match that. ... There no way the top two films will match that. ... The top three films might not match that. ... 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison and by the end of the month, it will be safe to say its chances of ever catching up to 2013 will be over. It is going to be a depressing month.
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September 30th, 2014
The Equalizer easily won the race for the top of the box office chart this weekend earning almost as much as the next two films combined. Those next two films were The Maze Runner and The Boxtrolls, both of which exceeded expectations, albeit by tiny margins. The strength of these three films helped the overall box office reach $106 million, which is 4% higher than last weekend. On the other hand, this was 2% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $7.51 billion, which is a massive amount when you look at it without context. However, it is nearly $400 million or 4.9% lower than last year's pace, which is also a massive amount. It is technically possible for 2014 to catch up to 2013 before the end of the year, but only if October is a really strong month at the box office. It won't be.
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September 25th, 2014
The Equalizer and The Boxtrolls opens wide this week. They are an action film and a family flick and the last weekend of September has been kind to both genres. The Equalizer could become the fastest opening film of the month, which might be enough to get it all the way to $100 million during its entire run. The Boxtrolls, on the other hand, is a Stop-motion animated film, which rarely rises above the midlevel hit. This weekend last year, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 opened with $34.02 million, which is right in the middle of the expected range for The Equalizer, plus the depth is better this year, so 2014 should win the year-over-year competition.
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September 24th, 2014
Just as it did on the domestic chart, The Maze Runner earned first place on the international chart. It did so with $38.0 million in 51 markets for an early total of $50.7 million. Its biggest market was Russia, where it placed first with $5.59 million on 1,748 screens, while South Korea was close behind with $4.88 million on 648 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.41 million. It also earned first place in Australia with $3.19 million on 305 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.31 million. The final major market debut of the weekend was Brazil, where it earned first place with $1.96 million on 316 screens. It slipped to second place in Mexico with $1.73 million on 996 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $5.92 million.
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September 24th, 2014
The winners of our Dynasty in the Making contest were determined and they are...
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September 22nd, 2014
The Maze Runner easily won the weekend box office race this past weekend beating expectations by a little bit with $32.51 million. Unfortunately, the other new releases were not as strong and their combined totals were about 25% lower than the number one film. Overall, the box office was $103 million, which is 14% higher than last weekend and 18% higher than the same weekend last year. This is a fantastic result, given the box office troubles of the past several weeks. Year-to-date, 2014 is still behind 2013 by a large margin at $7.38 billion to $7.75 billion, which is a 4.8% deficit. Hopefully this win will help the box office going forward and the fall will be better than the summer was.
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September 21st, 2014
The Maze Runner will be the first film to top $30 million at the box office in six weeks, bringing a welcome boost to the industry at the beginning of the Fall season. With $32.5 million projected for the weekend, and overall positive reviews, Fox could have a modest new franchise on its hands. Things look less rosy for the weekend’s other wide releases. A Walk Among the Tombstones will have a disappointing debut around $13 million—the worst result for a wide release starring Liam Neeson since K-19: The Widowmaker back in 2002, or, if one takes inflation into account, the 1998 version of Les Miserables. This is Where I Leave You lands with a projected $11.86 million, and reviews that aren’t good enough to give it much hope of redemption via word of mouth.
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September 18th, 2014
There are a trio of new wide releases this week, led by The Maze Runner, which is expected to top the box office chart and it is also currently earning the best reviews, although it is so close that it could change with a single new negative review. (It did change about five minutes after writing that, as it fell to second place.) The buzz for A Walk Among the Tombstones hasn't grown like I thought it would, but it still looks on pace to become a midlevel hit. On the other hand, This is Where I Leave You's chances are weakening and it looks like it won't finish in the top three. There is some good news. This weekend last year, Prisoners was the only film to earn more than $20 million, while Insidious Chapter 2 was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. This weekend, we could have five films earning more than $10 million and the number one film could earn more than $30 million.
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September 17th, 2014
Since this time last week, Lucy topped $200 million internationally. Considering a significant number of people thought it wouldn't reach $200 million worldwide, this is a great result. Over the weekend, it remained in first place with $24.9 million in 59 markets for totals of $230.6 million internationally and $354.1 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in Russia with $9.77 million on 1,013 screens, which was more than $9 million more than the second place film.
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September 12th, 2014
Three new releases enter the marketplace next weekend: The Maze Runner, This is Where I Leave You, and A Walk Among the Tombstones. I don't think any of them will be breakout hits, but The Maze Runner has the best chance to earn first place, even if its legs likely won't be very long. Because of this, it is the best choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Maze Runner.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Dynasty: The Final Season - Vol 1 & 2 Pack on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a previously reviewed TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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September 1st, 2014
August was a great month, it is as simple as that. Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy break records, but Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was a surprise hit as well. These early gains led to an extended winning streak in the year-over-year comparison. Granted, 2014 is still more than $300 million behind 2013, but this is substantially less than the gap was before the month. Can September maintain this run? I'm not sure. Last September was strong compared to most Septembers with Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 earning more than $100 million while Insidious Chapter 2 came relatively close. This year, there likely won't be any $100 million hits, but I think The Equalizer should at least come close. Meanwhile, there are some who think The Maze Runner will be the biggest hit of the month, but I'm not among them. There have been too many similar releases that have struggled to think this one will be a hit. I think September will get off to a terrible start, but overall I think it will be close to last year.
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