October 23rd, 2013
It was a mixed week for new releases. There was one major release, G.I. Joe: Retaliation, but not much else. Fortunately, it and the "not much else" all did very well on Blu-ray helping the overall Blu-ray market grow when compared to last week and last year. Compared to last week, there were 91% more units sold growing to 943,000 units, while the revenue rose 83% to $19.41 million. The growth compared to last year was just as strong up 85% in terms of units and 104% in terms of revenue. This growth combined with the sunken DVD sales week helped the overall Blu-ray share skyrocket to 39% in terms of units and 48% in terms of revenue.
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August 7th, 2013
Like it usually is during the summer, this week is rather soft on home market. Granted, there is one wide release that did very well at the box office, Oblivion, plus a couple of limited releases that did well to earn a serious measure of mainstream success, The Place Beyond the Pines and Mud. However, there are also some releases in the top twenty that are definitely filler. Usually, once you reach exercise videos, there's nothing worth talking about. Of course, if I used that rule this week, there would be almost nothing on this week's list. Mud is likely the best release and the DVD or Blu-ray is worth picking up, but I'm still waiting for the screener to review and I hate awarding something Pick of the Week if the screener is late. Because of this, I'm going with another late release, Burn Notice: Season Six, as Pick of the Week. It arrived more than a month late, but it was worth the wait.
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August 5th, 2013
Oblivion was a spring release, which isn't a great time to release a film, but it is far from a terrible time either. It opened in first place at the box office, but quickly faded away after that. It is hard to get excited by its box office numbers, but it wasn't a real bomb either. It will need help on the home market to recoup its $120 million production budget. Does it deserve to be seen by more on the home market? And is the DVD and / or Blu-ray worth picking up?
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June 9th, 2013
Coming into this weekend, Universal was already celebrating above-expectations performances this year for their releases Fast and Furious 6, Identity Thief and Mama, but those three successes have been eclipsed by a big surprise in the opening weekend for The Purge. The home invasion movie, made for just $3 million, will top the chart this weekend with an estimated $36.4 million, blowing past all expectations, and putting it on par with big budget movies like Oblivion. Doing so from a modest 2,536 theaters (and with a correspondingly low marketing budget) makes the victory even sweeter for the studio, which now boasts a 15% market share for the year. If it keeps going at this pace, Universal will have its best year since we started keeping records in 1995.
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May 15th, 2013
Iron Man 3 earned first place for the third weekend in a row, this time pulling in $89.3 million on 9,921 screens in 55 markets for totals of $664.4 million internationally and $949.3 million worldwide. At this pace, the film will have no trouble getting to $1 billion this coming weekend, while it should enter the top ten of all time by the end of the weekend. The film's single best market of the weekend was China, where it added $32.7 million over the week to its running tally, which now sits at $97.2 million.
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May 8th, 2013
Iron Man 3 remained in top spot on the international chart with $174.3 million on 29,160 screens in 72 markets for totals of $502.8 million internationally and $676.9 million worldwide. The film opened with $64.07 million in China, which makes China the film's biggest international market, despite playing there for half as long as most other major markets. The film dominated Russia with $22.82 million on 1,188 screens over the weekend, which was more than five times the nearest competitor. It also opened in first place in Germany, but with a more subdued $6.91 million on 618 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.07 million. This is not a great opening, but one market is nothing compared to the monstrous international run so far. Iron Man 3 held on very well in South Korea down just 19% to $13.53 million on 1,388 screens over the weekend for a total of $43.23 million after two. In the U.K., the film made $9.80 million on 558 screens for a two-week total of $38.17 million.
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May 6th, 2013
There was some good news and some bad news over the weekend. The good new was Iron Man 3, which lived up to our lofty expectations and became the second biggest opening weekend of all time. This one film earned more than the entire box office earned last weekend, leading to an 136% increase week-over-week to $217 million. The bad news is The Avengers, which did even better when it opened this weekend last year. Year-over-year, 2013 suffered a 16% decline. Meanwhile, year-to-date, 2013 is now behind 2012's pace by 11% at $3.13 billion to $3.52 billion.
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May 2nd, 2013
Summer finally begins. 2013 has been a really bad year so far and after four months, it is 12% or $384 million behind last year's pace. On the one hand, the summer blockbuster season should boost 2013's overall numbers right out of the gate. A lot of people, myself included, think Iron Man 3 will have the second-best opening weekend of all time. On the other hand, the film with the biggest opening weekend of all time was The Avengers, which opened this weekend last year. We can't even look for a counter-programming film or holdovers to help 2013 over the top, as there are no counter-programming films and none of the holdovers are likely to reach $10 million over the weekend. Look for yet another loss in the year-over-year comparison.
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May 2nd, 2013
Iron Man 3 debuted internationally a week ahead of its domestic debut and its was record-breaking. The film earned $198.4 million on 13,633 screens in 45 markets, which is technically more than The Avengers made during its opening weekend. Granted, The Avengers were playing in fewer markets and on fewer screens, while it also had previews that boosted its total opening to $218.2 million, but this is still nothing short of fantastic.
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April 30th, 2013
My enthusiasm for this column is nearly zero because of Iron Man 3. Final international box office numbers are not in, but studio estimates are not only amazing, but they are record-breaking. This will overshadow anything I have to talk about today. At least Pain and Gain had a better than expected opening. On the other hand, The Big Wedding failed to make an impact. Sadly, there was more bad news than good news and the overall box office fell 16% to $92 million. This was 17% lower than the same weekend last year, while the year-to-date numbers got just a little bit weaker. At the moment, 2013 is 12% behind 2012's pace at $2.89 billion to $3.27 billion. Worse still, the year-over-year comparisons are about to run into The Avengers, so unless Iron Man 3 is record-breaking, the year-over-year comparison is going to get worse before it gets better.
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April 25th, 2013
It is the final weekend before the Summer blockbuster season, which means the new releases this weekend are not prime releases. Pain and Gain at least has a shot at first place. Most think The Big Wedding won't crack $10 million during the weekend. The only good news is that last year was also a bad week at the box office. The biggest new release was The Pirates! Band of Misfits, which had to settle for second place with just $11.14 million, while Think Like a Man remained in first place with $17.60 million. I think 2013's one-two-punch will top 2012's one-two punch. However, last year had better depth and 2013 will again lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 25th, 2013
After getting pushed back into third place last weekend, G.I. Joe: Retaliation returned to first place this weekend with $40.0 million on 13,616 screens in 62 markets for totals of $211.7 million internationally and $322.9 million worldwide. Of its weekend haul, $33.14 million was earned in China. That's really close to what it earned during its domestic opening weekend. Granted, it did open on a Thursday and that likely diluted its weekend number, while the Chinese results are for the full week, but this is still an impressive result.
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April 25th, 2013
The winners of our Rather Remain Oblivious contest were determined and they are...
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April 22nd, 2013
The overall box office was in line with expectations, more or less, which is unfortunately bad news, as expectations were low. Oblivion easily won the weekend, but the overall box office still fell 5.7% from last weekend to $110 million. Worse still, this is 19% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 has pulled in $2.77 billion, which is 11% lower than 2012's pace. 2013 is already $350 million behind 2012 and even with Iron Man 3 looming large, I don't see how 2013 is going to turn things around any time soon.
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April 21st, 2013
Given the news over the past week, and the shutdown of Boston on Friday, there was some uncertainty over how much sci-fi action moviegoers would have an appetite for this weekend. Sunday's studio estimates provide the answer: quite a lot. Oblivion will open with about $38.2 million according to Universal, which is on the high end of expectations. That's enough to put it firmly in the top ten April weekends, in between Rio and Hop, but a long way behind Clash of the Titans, which debuted with $61.2 million in 2010 and is probably the closest comparison film to Oblivion among recent April openers.
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April 18th, 2013
It is no secret that 2013 has been a bad year at the box office so far. There's only one film debuting wide this week, Oblivion, which should benefit from the lack of competition this weekend. (Although we are already seeing plenty of hype for Iron Man 3, which could hurt this film's chance at the box office.) There are also several films opening in more than 100 theaters: Filly Brown, Home Run, and The Lords of Salem. There's a chance one of them will be a better than expected hit and reach the top ten; it's a slim chance, but a chance. Finally, The Place Beyond the Pines is expanding to an additional 1,000 theaters and should climb higher in the top ten. Last year, there were three wide releases led by Think Like a Man. That film was a bigger than expected hit, but hopefully Oblivion will have an even better start, but not everyone is positive it will.
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April 17th, 2013
Oblivion started its international run a week before its domestic debut and it did so earning first place in 48 of the 52 markets it opened in. Overall, the film finished first with $60.43 million on 7,637 screens in 52 markets. This is a good start, but not a great start. Fortunately, the studio was only expecting a good start, so they should be happy. Its biggest market was Russia, where it earned $9.30 million on 873 screens, while it also did well in the U.K. with $7.59 million on 520. Its performance in South Korea was not as strong at $3.60 million on 631 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.17 million. The film had similar openings in France ($3.82 million on 574 screens) and in Australia ($3.46 million on 353). Spain ($2.95 million on 373); Mexico ($2.79 million on 1,091); and Germany ($2.77 million on 600) produced nearly identical results. Finally, Brazil ($2.09 million on 479) and Italy ($2.04 million on 503) were virtually tied. The film finished in first place in all of these markets, and going by these results, it should open in first place here with $40 million, or at least relatively close to that figure.
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April 12th, 2013
There's only one wide release next week, Oblivion, so it is clearly the only choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. However, it is also a great target movie for this week's contest, as the prizes are autographed copies of Off to Be the Wizard by Scott Meyer, the artist (?) behind the world famous internet comic, Basic Instructions, who has offered such advice as how to live your dreams, how to be persuasive, and how to wallow in unbridled hedonism. The book is about a young man, Martin Banks, who makes an important discovery, only to quickly realize it would have been better if he had remained oblivious. Oblivion / oblivious. Okay, it took a while to get there, but I'm sure you will all agree that knowing how I come up with the names of these contests has enriched your live. ... Moving on. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Oblivion.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win an autographed copy of Off to Be the Wizard by Scott Meyer, Paperback Edition.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win an autographed copy of Off to Be the Wizard by Scott Meyer, Paperback Edition.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April 1st, 2013
March is over and while it is a little too soon to tell where a few films will end their box office runs, it is clear Oz The Great and Powerful won the month. Some films beat expectations to become midlevel hits, like The Call, but it wasn't a great month at the box office, especially compared to last year. This month, there are only seven wide releases spread over four weeks. Only one of those films, Oblivion, has a shot at being anything more than a midlevel hit. None of the other six releases look like they will come close to $100 million, but none of them look like obvious bombs either. (Although I do have my worries when it comes to Scary Movie 5.) Last April was even weaker with no film earning $100 million, although Think Like a Man did come relatively close. We might actually see growth on the year-over-year comparison. We'd better, because 2013 is behind 2012's pace by a huge margin at the moment and things will get worse when May arrives.
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