September 24th, 2020
Disney’s announcement earlier this week that it is moving its upcoming MCU releases into 2021, starting with Black Widow taking over Shang Chi’s previous slot on May 7, was a body-blow to the theatrical business. October’s release schedule is now looking very thin indeed. November isn’t looking much better, and there’s a high probability that at least one of No Time to Die, Soul, and The Croods: A New Age will slip from their current planned release dates.
This weekend has four films technically opening wide: the re-release of The Empire Strikes Back, Shortcut (an Italian horror movie from Gravitas Ventures, opening in around 600 locations), and two movies honoring Ruth Bader Ginsberg, On the Basis of Sex and RBG. However, all of them are such special cases that they don’t fit our prediction model. Instead, I’ll focus on a rare piece of good news: films currently playing in theaters are showing better week-to-week legs than was the case before the pandemic.
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April 24th, 2019
It is another slow week on the home market, but that gave me a chance to complete a couple of late reviews. The best release on this week’s list is A Face in the Crowd and it is the Pick of the Week. However, both of the late reviews, On the Basis of Sex and Willie Dynamite, are worth picking up.
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April 20th, 2019
On the Basis of Sex opened in limited release at the very end of last year, so it was clearly aiming for Oscars. That didn’t happen. However, while it wasn’t an Awards Season player, it did very well in limited release and earned nearly $25 million despite never expanding truly wide. Did the film deserve to win awards? Or is it more of a mainstream crowd-pleaser?
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April 11th, 2019
We’ve hit the summer doldrums on the home market, as there are no major winter releases that haven’t come out and none of 2019’s early releases were amazing, so there’s going to be a large gap between monster hits. One of the biggest hits is On the Basis of Sex, which is also one of the best. Another contender for Pick of the Week is Mirai while last week’s Archer: The Complete Season Nine: Danger Island would have been a contender last week, if the screener had arrived on time. In the end, it wasn’t a particularly close race and the Oscar-nominated movie won.
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March 27th, 2019
It is an amazing week for home releases. Not only do we have the biggest hit of last winter on this week’s list, but Aquaman is actually worth owning. That’s only the second time I can say that about the D.C.E.U. Additionally, there are a huge number of contenders for Pick of the Week, ranging from Oscar contenders (If Beale Street Could Talk on Blu-ray Combo Pack); limited releases (The Miseducation of Cameron Post: Special Edition Blu-ray); animated imports (My Hero Academia: Two Heroes on Blu-ray); TV movie aimed at teens (Kim Possible on DVD); and classics (For A Few Dollars More: Special Edition Blu-ray). It was an exceptionally close call, but in the end, I went with If Beale Street Could Talk.
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January 31st, 2019
Never Look Away was the only film to earn a spot in the $10,000 club, as it earned $25,789 in its lone theater. It did earn an Oscar Nod for Best Foreign-Language Picture, so it could do very well in limited release.
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January 24th, 2019
Who Will Write Our History topped the theater average chart with $13,390 in its lone theater. One could also argue Dragon Ball Super: Broly was the true leader on this chart. Because the film played in a different number of theaters each day over the weekend, it is hard to come up with a real theater average for the weekend. Taking the average of the daily averages gets us $13,643, which would be number one of the weekend. Using the maximum theater count still gets us an average of $7,870, which is still amazing. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall box office leader, Glass, with an average of $10,500.
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January 22nd, 2019
It was a mixed weekend with Glass missing admittedly high expectations, but a lot of the rest of the top five thrived. This includes Dragon Ball Super: Broly, which wasn’t even expected to open in the top five. Overall, the box office rose 8.6% from last weekend to $130 million. This is 5.0% less than the same weekend last year, which means 2019’s losing streak continues. This is more disappointing, as the misalignment in holidays gave 2019 a huge advantage this weekend. Year-to-date, 2019 is below 2018 by $100 million. In fact, 2019 is off to the worst start since 2012 or 2011, depending on if you take ticket price inflation into account. That said, it is still very early in the year and there are several nearly guaranteed monster hits on the way.
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January 17th, 2019
There were no films in the $10,000 club with Cold War coming the closest with $9,751 in ten theaters. The best new release was Touch Me Not, which opened with $7,903 in one theater.
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January 15th, 2019
The first major surprise of the year happened over the weekend, as The Upside beat expectations earning first place with $20.36 million. The overall box office fell 14% from last weekend dropping to $119 million. This is 25% lower than the same weekend last year, but that was MLK Day long weekend, so this kind of difference was expected.
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January 13th, 2019
It wasn’t exactly a great weekend at the box office, but The Upside was the rare exception. The film is estimated to open with $19.59 million. The audiences clearly liked the film better than critics did, as its reviews are mixed, while it got an A from CinemaScore. This makes sense, as the most common complaint from critics were the clichés. The average moviegoer only sees one movie in a theater every other month, whereas the average critic will see two or more movies a week. Clichés are a lot less tolerable when you see them ten times as often as part of your job. The film’s estimates are much better than its predictions and great for a film that cost $37.5 million to make. Furthermore, the news is even better for STX Entertainment, as they didn’t spend nearly that much on the domestic rights, so they will be in the black very soon.
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January 12th, 2019
The Upside surprised box office analysts with $6.95 million on Friday, knocking Aquaman out of first place on the daily chart. This is very likely enough to knock it out of first place on the weekend chart as well, becoming STX’s first number one hit. Most critics didn’t like the movie, but few hated it. Audiences, on the other hand, loved the movie, giving it an A from CinemaScore. If this translates into long legs, then it could earn first place with as much as $20 million, but $19 million is more likely at this point.
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January 10th, 2019
There are three or four new releases that should reach the top ten, depending on how you look at things. A Dog’s Way Home is by far the biggest of these and has a not unreasonable shot at opening in first place. I think Aquaman will defend its crown, but it should at least be close. The Upside is the only other new release with a better than 50/50 shot of earning a spot in the top five. Replicas, on the other hand, is widely expected to bomb. The last “new” release is On the Basis of Sex, which is expanding nearly truly wide and it has an outside chance of earning a spot in the top five. This weekend last year was MLK Day long weekend. If 2019 doesn’t lose the year-over-year comparison by more than 20%, then it will be a reason to celebrate.
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January 10th, 2019
Destroyer rose to first place on the theater average chart with an average of $16,383 in six theaters. Cold War actually saw its average grow to $15,127, also in six theaters. Last week’s winner, On the Basis of Sex was next with an average of $14,370 in 112 theaters. It’s rare for a limited release to land in the $10,000 club while playing in more than 100 theaters. The final member of the $10,000 club was Stan and Ollie with an average of $10,920 in 8 theaters.
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January 2nd, 2019
It was a busy week on the theater average chart, as there were three new releases and three holdovers in the $10,000 club. On the Basis of Sex led the way with an average of $20,799 in 33 theaters. That’s an excellent start for a limited release playing in that many theaters. Second place went to Destroyer with an average of $18,449 in three theaters. The final new release in the $10,000 club was Stan and Ollie, which earn an average of $15,935 in five theaters. Cold War held on really well earning an average of $14,777 in three theaters. The overall box office leader, Aquaman, was next with an average of $12,634. If Beale Street Could Talk rounded out the $10,000 with an average of $11,788, and it managed this despite expanding its theater count to 65.
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December 30th, 2018
It has been an even more predictable weekend than expected, as every film in the top five finished in the same order as last weekend. This includes Aquaman topping the chart with an estimated $51.55 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $188.79 million. It will cross $200 million shortly and overtake A Star is Born as Warner Bros.’ biggest domestic hit of the year. Internationally, the film added $85.4 million this weekend to push its global running tally to just shy of $750 million at $748.8 million. It is already ahead of Man of Steel and Suicide Squad on the DCEU chart and should soon step into first place.
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December 27th, 2018
There were not many new limited releases releases, which let If Beale Street Could Talk remain on top with an average of $21,853 in five theaters. Cold War was the best of the new releases with an average of $18,118 in three theaters. The only other film in the $10,000 club over the weekend was Aquaman with an average of $16,485. Two films had averages of over $10,000 during their Christmas Day debuts, On the Basis of Sex (average of $14,483 in 33 theaters) and Destroyer (average of $10,246 in three).
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December 21st, 2018
There is not a lot of time for Oscar contenders to come out in theaters and usually this time of year there are a few Oscar-bait films getting last minute runs. This is sort of true this year. There are three films coming out till the end of the year that have been earning Awards Season buzz, but none of them are earning award-worthy reviews. Besides these three films, there are almost no limited releases. Even if you include all of next week, there are only eight films opening this week in total.
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September 11th, 2018
Real-life drama starring Felicity Jones, directed by Mimi Leder, opens December 25 ... Full Movie Details.
A true story that follows young lawyer Ruth Bader Ginsburg as she teams with her husband Marty to bring a groundbreaking case before the U.S. Court of Appeals and overturn a century of gender discrimination.
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