February 26th, 2017
It’s Oscar night and we were live blogging the show. Read on the the highlights of what turned out to be a crazy night.
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February 26th, 2017
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between.
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January 24th, 2017
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at 5:18 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, it’s a boring year for nominations with very few surprises worth talking about, especially in the biggest categories. Leading the way was La La Land with 14 nominations, tying the record.
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December 12th, 2016
This is a strange week on the home market. We have one of the biggest domestic hits of the year, Suicide Squad, but it is one of the worst movies I’ve seen this year. (Granted, I’ve done fewer reviews this year and skipped a lot of terrible looking movies, like Independence Day: Resurgence, Warcraft, Gods of Egypt, Allegiant... Ben Hur, The Huntsman, The Legend of Tarzan. I could keep going. Wow! It was a bad year for $100 million movies.) After Suicide Squad, the next biggest release according to Amazon is the Chicago Cubs 2016 World Series Collector's Edition Blu-ray. That’s a huge drop in sales. As far as quality is concerned, I have to give a shout out to that World Series Blu-ray. Real fans want full games and this one provides them. On the other hand, I personally find baseball boring to watch. Unfortunately, there’s no one release that stands out as an obvious Pick of the Week, but instead we have a lot of releases that are close, but wouldn’t be close enough during a good week. The Twilight Zone: The Complete Series on Blu-ray is the best, assuming you didn’t grab the individual seasons when they came out.
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November 28th, 2016
Last week was the week of Black Friday / Cyber Monday, so the massive sales scared away top-notch releases. This week is the week after Black Friday / Cyber Monday and the new releases are even worse. There are a few midlevel releases, like Don’t Breathe or Pete’s Dragon, but the the size of the release quickly drops from there. Fortunately, both of those releases are very good and on even really busy weeks would be contenders for Pick of the Week. It was a close pick between the two, but in the end, I went with Don’t Breathe as Pick of the Week.
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November 28th, 2016
After Superman Returns struggled at the box office and The Dark Knight became a surprise $1 billion hit, the folks at Warner Bros. decided to reboot the D.C. movies as D.C. Extended Universe using the dark and gritty style of the Dark Knight Trilogy. That hasn’t worked out so far. Man of Steel barely broke even and the mixed reviews made a few people worried about the franchise’s future. The dour interpretation of Superman didn’t work and the editing and pacing was a mess, but at least it had an interesting villain. Batman v Superman was terrible and had one of the worst villains of any comic book movie I’ve seen. When that film was eviscerated by the critics, Warner Bros. stepped in and made last minute changes to Suicide Squad. Did it work? Nope. But is it better than BvS?
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November 15th, 2016
There are several prime releases on this week’s Home Market report. This includes the biggest film of the week, Finding Dory, which was previously named Pick of the Week. I suspect a lot of people reading this have pre-ordered the Blu-ray already. Other contenders for Pick of the Week include Game of Thrones: Season Six and Rush: Time Stands Still on Blu-ray. I’m awarding Pick of the Week to Game of Thrones, while Rush gets Puck of the Week, for best Canadian release.
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October 4th, 2016
The overall box office was about as strong as expected, as Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children beat expectations by the same amount as Deepwater Horizon missed expectations. This helped the overall box office grow 10% from last weekend to $114 million. However, this is still 24% lower than this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 still has a lead over 2015, but that lead has shrunk to 4.9% or $390 million at $8.50 billion to $8.10 billion. If 2016’s lead falls below $325 million, then we will need to panic. Remember, last year ended with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which earned $650 million before the end of the year. Rogue One isn’t expected to earn half of that, so 2016 is going to need a $325 million lead or it will need better depth in order to come out ahead. I would prefer the former.
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September 14th, 2016
There were two films that could lay claim to top spot on the international chart. Star Trek Beyond has the better claim earning $16.6 million over the weekend in 40 markets for totals of $161.5 million internationally and $318.1 million worldwide. Its biggest debut came from Mexico, where it pulled in $1.29 million over the weekend for a four-day opening of $1.43 million. This was enough for first place. The film also remained in first place in China with $11.41 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $53.66 million.
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September 13th, 2016
Four films opened wide or semi-wide over the weekend, but only one of them, Sully, did well at the box office. It earned more than double its nearest competition, When the Bough Breaks, at $35.03 million to $14.20 million. The other two new releases bombed. Overall, the box office was flat, up 1.1% from last weekend to $101 million. This was also flat when compared to last year, down just 1.7%. Since this weekend was so close to last weekend, it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year comparison hardly moved. This time last week, 2016 was ahead of 2016 by just over 6.7%, while this week its lead is just under 6.8% at $8.10 billion to $7.58 billion.
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September 8th, 2016
The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is often the worst weekend of the year. However, this year there two films opening wide that have a real shot at $20 million or more. Sully is Oscar-bait, but it is opening a little too early for that role and its reviews are a little below where they need to be. When the Bough Breaks is a thriller aimed at African-Americans and this time of year has become the perfect time to release such a film. Those two films should earn $50 million combined. Unfortunately, there are two other films coming out this week. The Wild Life is a third-tier animated film, while The Disappointments Room isn’t even opening truly wide. There’s a chance neither of them will reach the top five. The Disappointments Room likely won’t reach the top ten. This weekend last year, the top two films were The Perfect Guy and The Visit, which combined earned just over $50 million at the box office. It should be a really close race in the year-over-year competition.
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September 7th, 2016
Star Trek Beyond climbed into first place for the first time in its run with $37.0 million in 40 markets for totals of $131.1 million internationally and $285.4 million worldwide. The film earned first place in China with a total opening of $30.92 million, including previews. It was not as strong in Brazil, where it earned $1.6 million on 479 screens. The film is doing well enough that it should break even, eventually, but it is not a truly monster hit.
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September 7th, 2016
The Labor Day long weekend wasn’t even close with Don’t Breathe earning more over three days than any other film earned over four. There were a couple of other major stories as Suicide Squad hit $300 million on Monday and Bad Moms hit $100 million on Saturday. Given the production budgets of those two films, the latter has a lot more reasons to celebrate. As for the new releases, the studios will just be hoping no one remembers them in a few weeks. The Light Between Oceans missed the top five, while Morgan missed the top ten. The overall box office fell 16% to $99 million over the three-day weekend and $127 million including Monday. This is 8.9% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 grew to $500 million at $7.98 billion to $7.48 billion. That’s a lead of 6.7%. It would take a real collapse for 2016 to lose at this rate.
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September 4th, 2016
Don’t Breathe is pulling off an easy win at the box office this weekend, and will become in the process the first horror film to win two straight weekends since Ouija did so, with some help from Halloween, in 2014. With an estimated 3-day $15.7 million, Don’t Breathe is ahead of Suicide Squad, which will stay in the top two for a fifth straight weekend with $10 million or so. Its total stands at $297 million as of Sunday, and will pass $300 million tomorrow. The relative success of those two films prompts a question… where are the new releases?
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September 1st, 2016
Summer officially ends this week with Labor Day long weekend. For a lot of families, this is the last long weekend before school starts. (For other families, school has already started.) There are two films opening wide-ish this weekend. I thought Morgan would open in 2,500 theaters, but it is only opening in 2,020. That will hurt its box office chances. The Light Between Oceans is only opening in 1,500 theaters, which might prevent it from reaching the top five over the weekend. Don’t Breathe will likely remain in first place over the weekend, but I think Morgan will be closer than most people expected it to be. This weekend last year there was not a single film to earn more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. I think Don’t Breathe will top that, while Morgan will be relatively close. This should give 2016 the advantage in the year-over-year competition.
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August 31st, 2016
Jason Bourne returned to first place with $56.2 million on 10,247 screens in 62 markets for totals of $197.73 million internationally and $347.01 million worldwide. The film earned first place in China with $23.96 million over the weekend for a six-day opening of $49.13 million. The entire six day opening is included in the weekend number. Its total in China is already better than the lifetime totals for any other film in the franchise. The film wasn’t quite as potent in Mexico, but it still did well earning first place with $1.53 million over the weekend, which is the best opening in the franchise.
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August 29th, 2016
Don’t Breathe topped the weekend box office chart earning $26.41 million. This was double its nearest competitor, Suicide Squad, and more than three times the other new release, Mechanic: Resurrection. The overall box office fell 12% from last weekend to $117 million. This is 33% higher than this weekend last year, which is really impressive for a year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 has grown to $480 million or 6.5% at $7.81 billion to $7.33 billion.
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August 28th, 2016
Fall season begins in earnest this weekend with the low-budget suspense flick Don’t Breathe taking over at the top of the box office chart. Sony is predicting a $26.1 million debut for the film, which will be the best debut for a horror or suspense film since The Purge: Election Year’s $31.5 million in July, and the best for a non-sequel since Annabelle’s $37.1 million in October, 2014. Don’t Breathe has the advantage of really good reviews (currently running at 84% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), although it will have a lot of competition over the next few weeks, with films aimed at a broadly similar audience coming out every week for the next three weeks (not to mention a truckload more arriving in October).
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August 27th, 2016
Don’t Breathe earned a stunning $10.02 million on Friday, which isn’t that much less than some people predicted it would earn over the entire weekend. Its reviews are among the best of any wide release to come out this year. Its CinemaScore was a B+, which is better than most horror films manage. (Like I’ve said in the past, there are two schools of horror fans: gorehounds and those who demand high tension. It is nearly impossible to appeal to both groups, so these movies have a hard time doing well in this metric.) Horror films tend to have a low internal multiplier, but the film is still on pace for $23 million, which is ahead of predictions.
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August 25th, 2016
It’s the last weekend of summer and a number of schools are already back, so the box office prospects are really low. That’s not to say there’s nothing to look forward to, as Don’t Breathe is earning stellar reviews. On the other hand, Mechanic: Resurrection still has no reviews. (There was another movie, Hands of Stone, that was expected to open wide, but that is no longer the case.) This weekend last year, Straight Outta Compton completed its threepete with $13.13 million. The best new release was War Room, which only managed $11.35 million. This year, the two wide releases will topped the combined numbers of those two films, while the holdovers will push 2016 over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 25th, 2016
The Secret Life of Pets rose to first place with $43.8 million on 12,049 screens in 55 markets for totals of $327.20 million internationally and $674.03 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in Russia with $9.92 million in 1,284 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.24 million, including previews.
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August 21st, 2016
Three even-matched debutants proved to be no match for the incumbents at the box office this weekend, with Suicide Squad taking a third straight victory at the box office with $20.71 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection. Sausage Party stays in second with $15.3 million, and that leaves the new entrants in 3rd, 4th and 5th. This was a weekend where diversity isn’t the problem, but novelty is.
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August 20th, 2016
Suicide Squad led the way on Friday with $6.03 million. This is almost perfectly in line with predictions and it should finish with just a little above $20 million over the weekend.
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August 18th, 2016
Summer is over, at least as far as the box office is concerned. There are three films opening wide and another expanding wide-ish, but none of them are expected to crack $20 million over the weekend. War Dogs should come the closest, but even then, it is only aiming at the midteens. Kubo and the Two Strings is the best of the new releases, but recent history isn’t kind to stop-motion animated films. The final wide release of the week is Ben-Hur. This film cost nearly $100 million to make and it is expected to bomb spectacularly. Hell or High Water is expected to expand semi-wide, perhaps wide enough to score a spot in the top ten. Suicide Squad will likely win the box office race, but this has less to do with the film’s strength and more to do with the weak competition. Speaking of weak competition, this weekend last year, Straight Outta Compton earned more than all three wide releases combined. 2016 won’t be able to match it at the top of the chart, but there’s much better depth this year than last year, so 2016 should win in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 17th, 2016
Suicide Squad saw its numbers fall dramatically, but still held onto top spot on the international chart with $58.7 million in 62 markets. The film’s totals rose to $242.5 million internationally and $465.1 million worldwide. The film’s two biggest new markets were Argentina, where it earned $2.5 million, and Italy, where it pulled in $2.15 million. Its best holdover was the U.K., where it remained in first place despite falling 62% to $5.52 million in 587 theaters for a two-week total of $28.90 million. At this pace, the film will be over $500 million worldwide before the weekend, while it is on track for $750 million worldwide in total. That should be enough to break even before its home market run.
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August 16th, 2016
Hell or High Water led the way on the Theater Average Chart with an average of $19,417 in 32 theaters. The studio was hoping for only half of that, so this is a fantastic start. The biggest new release of the week, Sausage Party, was next with an average of $11,042, while the overall number one film, Suicide Squad, was right behind with $10,232.
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August 16th, 2016
The overall box office was a little weaker than expected with Suicide Squad falling nearly as fast as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did. On the other hand, Sausage Party opened better than expected earning a solid second place. Overall, the box office pulled in $172 million over the weekend, which is 25% smaller than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, the box office was 16% higher and that’s the most important number. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $7.43 billion, putting it 5.3% ahead of last year’s pace. The box office just needs to maintain its $380 million lead throughout the rest of the summer to be considered a success.
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August 14th, 2016
A precipitous drop from last weekend won’t be enough to knock Suicide Squad off its perch at the top of the box office chart, according to studio estimates released on Friday. But a 67% fall is steep, even by modern standards. On the bright side, it is less than Batman v Superman’s 69% decline in its second weekend earlier this year, at least according to the estimates. A weak Sunday would put the two films basically neck-and-neck on that front, and it looks increasingly likely that Suicide Squad will end with less than $300 million domestically.
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August 13th, 2016
Sausage Party actually earned first place on Friday with $13.5 million, putting it just ahead of Suicide Squad. That lead won’t last, as new releases almost never has an internal multiplier as big as holdovers do. The film does have excellent reviews, but only earned a B CinemaScore. This could mean critics liked the film more than its target audience and it will have short legs. Or it could mean it is a more niche market release and it will be a cult classic in a few years. Regardless, a $33 million opening is in the works, which is excellent for a film that cost $19 million to make.
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August 11th, 2016
Before we talk about the weekend predictions... If you can read this, it means my transfer worked well enough and I can do work from my parents house while pet-sitting. I will be at my parents place for three weeks looking after their dog and cat. I was at their house for less than 30 minutes before stepping into a puddle of dog drool. It is going to be a very long three weeks. ... As for the releases for the week, they are all amazing. The film earning the weakest reviews at the moment is Sausage Party, which is earning 82% positive reviews. 82% positive is the weakest of the three wide releases. That's amazing. On the other hand, it won't be the biggest release of the week. Pete’s Dragon has a better than 50/50 chance at reaching $100 million in total; however, as a family film, it will start relatively slow, but have good legs. Finally, there’s Florence Foster Jenkins, which is an early Oscar contender. It is not opening in a lot of theaters, so it is going to need great word-of-mouth to thrive. None of these new releases will match last year’s number one film, Straight Outta Compton, so it will be up to Suicide Squad to keep 2016 on the winning track. I think it will collapse by more than 60%, but 2016 has a lot better depth than 2015 and it will come out on top.
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August 10th, 2016
As expected, Suicide Squad easily won the international box office race pulling in $132 million in 57 markets. However, its results in individual markets were mixed when compared to its domestic opening, as well as when compared to Batman v Superman. For example, the film earned first place in Russia with $11.42 million over the weekend, while BvS opened with $7.84 million. It is also a little better than its debut here, given the size of the two markets, and the slumping rubles. On the other hand, the film managed $13.9 million in the U.K., compared to BvS’s opening of $20.66 million. Likewise, a $13.9 million opening in the U.K. is equivalent to about $90 million here, which is much less than its debut here. That’s still a huge opening, but not a monster opening. BvS finished with over $500 million internationally; if Suicide Squad finishes with just under $400 million internationally, it will break even, so the studio can’t be too upset. They could yell, “Damn the critics, full speed ahead.” and let the D.C. Extended Universe turn into another Transformers. Hit after hit, but critically reviled.
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August 10th, 2016
The winners of our Live or Die contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Suicide Squad opening weekend were...
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August 9th, 2016
Operation Chromite, the South Korean war movie, opened on first place on the theater average chart with $31,662. This put it just ahead of the overall box office champion, Suicide Squad, which earned an average of $31,418. Little Men was next with an average of $15,184 in two theaters. The re-release of Elevator to the Gallows was close behind with $14,334 in its lone theater. The final film in the $10,000 club was Equity, with an average of $13,629 in four theaters during its second weekend of release.
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August 9th, 2016
Overall, the weekend lived up to expectations, with Suicide Squad doing a little better than expected at the expense of some of its competition. For example, Jason Bourne had one of the worst sophomore stint declines of the summer. The overall box office rose 20% from last weekend hitting $229 million. Suicide Squad earned more this weekend than the entire box office earned this weekend last year, so it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year growth was stunning at 73%. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 grow by more than $100 million hitting 5.3% at $7.16 billion to $6.80 billion.
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August 7th, 2016
One of the most talked-about debuts of the year is shaping up to be one of the better ones. Suicide Squad will open with about $135 million, according to Warner Bros., easily the biggest weekend in August, beating Guardians of the Galaxy’s $94.3 million in 2014. It’s also the 3rd-best weekend in 2016, and should earn a little more than Deadpool’s $132 million debut. In spite of these awesome stats, there’s about as much negative press for the film as positive, and some of it not entirely fair.
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August 6th, 2016
As expected, Suicide Squad broke the record for the biggest day in August with $65.13 million on Friday. Its opening day to preview multiplier was 3.17, which is not that much worse than the 3.28 earned by Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014. This is surprising, as Suicide Squad’s reviews have fallen to just 26% positive, while Guardians of the Galaxy earned 91% positive reviews. You would think word-of-mouth would tank Suicide Squad. Granted, it is just one day and perhaps it will fall as fast as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did throughout the rest of the weekend. Or perhaps moviegoers liked the movie significantly more than critics did. Its CinemaScore was a B+, which is not good, but not terrible. Or perhaps the lack of A-list comic book characters means it wasn’t able to get the average moviegoer as excited as they were for BvS, so it won’t be as front-loaded despite the worse reviews. Given this opening day, the film is on pace for $137 million, according to our model, which is on the very high end of expectations. That said, things might change tomorrow when we get the weekend estimates: the model’s range of uncertainty goes from $119 million at the low end to $154 million at the high end.
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August 4th, 2016
Before we talk about the weekend predictions... Warner Bros. owns D.C. Comics and a 30% share in Rotten Tomatoes. So accusing Rotten Tomatoes of having an anti-D.C. bias is silly. Starting a petition to shut down Rotten Tomatoes is a sign you really need a more productive hobby. I suggest Magic: The Gathering. ... Moving on... Suicide Squad is the last major release of the summer. Unfortunately, its reviews are among the worst of any $100 million movie released this summer. The counter-programming this week is Nine Lives, a talking animal / body swap movie that still has no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Many analysts think it will fail to reach the top five during its opening weekend. This weekend last year was the weekend Fantastic Four opened. Suicide Squad should crush that movie at the box office. In fact, it should earn more than the top ten earned last year.
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August 4th, 2016
The winners of our Bourne Free contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Jason Bourne opening weekend were...
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August 1st, 2016
July did reasonably well, thanks mostly to The Secret Life of Pets, which will top $300 million shortly and could earn double its nearest competitor when all is said and done. That said, there were also a quartet of $100 million hits as well, so the month had good depth as well. August isn’t as lucky. There is one film that is expected to earn $100 million during its opening weekend, Suicide Squad, and one more that is expected to reach $100 million in total, Pete’s Dragon. There could be a surprise hit among the rest of the releases, (my long shot with a shot is Sausage Party) but for the most part, the rest of the wide releases would be happy with just $50 million at the box office. Last August was a disaster and Straight Outta Compton was the only hit of the month. Unless Suicide Squad bombs compared to expectations, 2016 will come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 29th, 2016
Next week is the first week of August and only two wide releases are coming out: Nine Lives and Suicide Squad. ... It is not going to be a competitive weekend at the box office. There are many who think Suicide Squad will earn well over $100 million during its opening weekend, so there’s little doubt it should be the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Suicide Squad.
The main prize this week is a John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle that includes five Blu-rays, plus a Digital Download Code. The bundle is lead by I Am Wrath (Blu-ray Combo Pack), as well as The Forger (Blu-ray); From Paris With Love (Blu-ray); The Punisher (Blu-ray); Pulp Fiction (Blu-ray); and She’s So Lovely (Digital Downloads).
To determine the winner, we will look at the participant who came the closest without going over and the participant who came the closest without going under. Whoever is closest among those two wins the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. The other will win a pair of previously reviewed movies.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be in the running for the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be in the running for the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle.
To determine the winner, we will look at the participant who came the closest without going over and the participant who came the closest without going under. Whoever is closest among those two wins the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. The other will win a pair of previously reviewed movies.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a pair of previously reviewed movies.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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