December 9th, 2014
It is a very shallow week on the home market. Granted, Guardians of the Galaxy is coming out this week on DVD or 3D Blu-ray Combo Pack and it would be a clear contender for Pick of the Week even on the busiest of week. However, after that, there is a sharp decline in quality. Calvary and Dead Snow 2: Red vs. Dead are two very different movies, but both are contenders for Pick of the Week. In the end, I went with Guardians of the Galaxy as the Pick of the Week.
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September 3rd, 2014
Labor Day Weekend was dominated by holdovers. The two new releases were As Above, So Below and The November Man, which opened in fourth and sixth places respectively. Guardians of the Galaxy remained in first place over the weekend and climbed into first place for the year in the process, overtaking fellow Marvel Film, Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Overall, the box office fell 4% from last weekend down to $110 million. Compared to last year, the box office was down 11%, which is troubling. Year-to-date, 2014 is now behind 2013 by a 4.5% margin at $7.07 billion to $7.40 billion. This is the weakest post-Labor Day weekend running tally since 2008 and that's before you look at ticket price inflation. With ticket price inflation, you have to go back to 2005.
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August 26th, 2014
Of the three wide releases, none topped expectations and only If I Stay did decent business at the box office. It only managed third place, but it did have the best per theater average in the top twenty. This left holdovers atop of the box office chart with Guardians of the Galaxy returning to first place and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles slipping to second place. Overall, the box office was down 20% from last weekend to $115 million. However, this was 4.7% higher than the same weekend last year, which is the more important metric. Unfortunately, 2014 is still behind 2013 by a large margin of $330 million or 4.7% at $6.91 billion to $7.24 billion.
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August 24th, 2014
Even though it is nine years since original movie opened with $29 million and topped a fairly lackluster April weekend, few predicted going into the Summer that Sin City: A Dame to Kill For would finish in 8th place on debut. In spite of little competition the neo-noir thriller will post about $6.5 million from 2,894 theaters, putting it in third place among the openers. Tearjerker If I Stay is the best new release this weekend, with an expected $16.35 million from 2,907 theaters, for a very respectable average of $5,600. It will be third overall behind Guardians of the Galaxy, which will pass $250 million today, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, which falls to second place with $16.8 million this weekend and $145 million in total. With a little over $1 million separating the top three, it’s conceivable that the order could change when final results are reported on Monday.
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August 21st, 2014
Last weekend, there were three wide releases, but only one of them did relatively well. This weekend, there are also three wide releases and hopefully they will perform better at the box office. There are some positive signs and some analysts think both Sin City: A Dame To Kill For and If I Stay will open with more than $20 million while When the Game Stands Tall could make more than $10 million. That's on the high side. On the low side, none of the new releases will open in first place and Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles will be in a battle for first and second place. That said, this weekend last year, none of the three wide releases earned more than $10 million during the weekend and only two films in total reached that mark over the weekend. Even low-end expectations for this year are more bullish than that, so 2014 should continue its winning streak in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 14th, 2014
There are three wide releases opening wide next weekend: If I Stay, Sin City: A Dame to Kill For, and When the Game Stands Tall. Despite opening late in August, Sin City: A Dame to Kill For is actually earning loud buzz and might be a surprise midlevel hit. It is the best choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Sin City: A Dame to Kill For.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Perry Mason: Movie Collection Volume 3 on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a previously reviewed TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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August 1st, 2014
July was... well... let's just pretend it didn't happen. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes did well, but week after week 2014 fell further behind 2013 in the year-to-date comparison. At the moment, we are roughly $400 million behind last year's pace and while I don't think August will continue the losing streak, there's really no chance August will put a dent in that number. It looks more and more likely that Guardians of the Galaxy will be a hit, especially given its early reviews, but it could be the last $100 million hit till October, if the bad buzz surrounding Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles turns into bad ticket sales. Last August there were two films that reached $100 million, plus two others that came close. This August might match that, while the biggest film this year should top the biggest film from last year. I think the slump 2014 is suffering through will end the first weekend and overall I think it will cut the deficit a little bit. That said, summer 2014 will still end as one of the worst recent summers at the box office.
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