Weekend Estimates: No Good Deed Enjoys Surprise Win

September 14, 2014

Movie fans are ignoring the critics this weekend and turning out in big numbers to see No Good Deed. The thriller, starring Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson will easily win the weekend with an estimated $24.5 million, in spite of earning only 17% positive reviews from critics. Audiences are giving the film a 71% positive score so far, which represents a huge difference of opinion. Dolphin Tale 2, which was considered the more likely weekend winner, and is enjoying excellent reviews from critics and moviegoers alike, is under-performing at the box office and should make about $16.5 million according to Warner Bros., down from the $19.2 million opening for the first film in the franchise.

In third place, Guardians of the Galaxy will earn $8 million and move past $300 in total. It’s the first film released in 2014 to reach that milestone.

The Drop opened in 809 theaters on Friday and is doing fairly well for a nearly-wide release. Fox is projecting a $4.2 million weekend for a theater average of $5,192—the second-best in the top ten after No Good Deed.

Mid-September is the time of year when indie films with award aspirations start arriving in theaters, and this weekend sees three such films that are drawing averages of over $10,000 in each theater. The Skeleton Twins tops the list with an average of $27,400 in 15 theaters and a projected opening weekend of $411,000. The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby will average about $19,300 in four theaters for a $77,200 opening weekend. Finally, My Old Lady will post an impressive $134,000 in eleven theaters. All three could be around for a while.

Three other films will miss the $10,000 mark, but are close enough to warrant mention: The Green Prince will average $9,500 in four venues; Last Days in Vietnam $8,400 in three theaters; and Bird People $8,100 in a single location.

Finally, an less impressively, trilogy capper Atlas Shrugged: Who Is John Galt? will post about $355,000 in 242 for an average just shy of $1,500 per theater. Based on that start, the film has no chance of coming close to the $3.3 million earned by Part II, let alone the $4.8 million made by Part 1.

Bruce Nash bruce.nash@the-numbers.com

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Guardians of the Galaxy, No Good Deed, Dolphin Tale 2, The Drop, My Old Lady, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, The Skeleton Twins, Last Days in Vietnam, The Green Prince, Atlas Shrugged: Who Is John Galt?, Bird People, Idris Elba, Taraji P. Henson