December 1st, 2018
November turned out to be a really, really good month. I thought 2018’s lead over 2017 would shrink, potentially by $200 million to $300 million. However, the lead actually managed to grow a little bit, thanks to hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Bohemian Rhapsody. December has an equal number of potential hits, led by Mary Poppins Returns, which some think will top $300 million. Additionally, Spider-man Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Holmes and Watson all have a realistic shot at $100 million or more. On the other hand, last December was stronger, at least on top. The Last Jedi earned more than $500 million just during December, which is more than any December release this year will earn in total. It could be more than the top two films earn in total. 2018 will win the in year-over-year competition; however, its lead won’t be as large as it is at the start of the month.
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July 1st, 2017
I hate it when the first of the month lands on a Saturday. By the time this story goes live, we will still have almost no box office data for Despicable Me 3, so we won’t know if June ended on a positive note. Fortunately, Wonder Woman beat expectations and might end up as the biggest hit of the summer, at least for a little while. July begins with Spider-Man: Homecoming, which should make at least $300 million and is the last film being released this summer that has a shot at being a $400 million hit domestically. It is very likely that nothing else this month will come within $100 million of that movie, so that could help its legs. There are a few potential $100 million hits, including War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, and a couple of other long shots. Last July had a similar feel with The Secret Life of Pets topping the list with well over $300 million, while there were five other $100 million hits. This July would have to beat expectations substantially to match this performance. I’m not confident 2017 will be able to maintain its pace at the box office. I’m worried at least one big film will struggled and 2017 will end the month behind 2016’s pace.
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March 1st, 2014
2014 continued its strong run in February with The Lego Movie beating even the high end expectations and will become the first film released in 2014 to reach $200 million. March doesn't look as strong, as no film is on track to hit $200 million, but there are five films that have a chance at $100 million. Granted, not all of them will get there; in fact, there's a chance only one of them will get there. Divergent is the film I think has the best shot at the century club, but it could be joined by Mr. Peabody and Sherman, for instance, which is earning surprisingly strong reviews. Noah is a big-budget Bible epic and the studio has to be hoping for at least $100 million, but the buzz is quite negative and there have been reports of troubles behind-the-scenes. Last March was led by Oz The Great and Powerful, which pulled in more than $200 million domestically. I don't think any film opening this March will match that figure. In addition, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation also hit the $100 million milestone, while Olympus Has Fallen came very close. Granted, there were also some big bombs last March, like The Host, but even so, I think 2014 will lose ground in the year-over-year comparison.
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