Really annoying seeing everybody reblogging badly sourced posts about a “coming genocide” in East Aleppo. For one, the entire city is under regime control. If there was a genocide, it’s already occurred. From what we’re seeing, a number as high as 1,016 civilians have been killed by the regime during the siege, mostly through bombings and artillery. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a pro-rebel outfit, claims 457 killed by regime artillery and air power during the first phase of the offensive (between the end and beginning of two ceasefires, Sept 19 to Oct 19), 96 killed during the rebel counteroffensive stage (Oct 28th to Nov 14th), and 463 killed between then and now in the final phase. This does not include the 82 people the UN claims have been executed summarily by regime militias in the last 48 hours of the battle, including 11 women and 13 children, but for which no physical evidence has yet emerged. This is absolutely a tragedy, and evidence of a morally bereft means of fighting war that emphasizes the use of saturation bombing against enemies without regard for civilian life, and which has convinced the pro-regime militias it holds little control over that everybody left in Eastern Aleppo is a terrorist or terrorist sympathizer whom it is okay to brutalize. It is not however evidence of a genocide. If there were such an event, the regime would not have spent the last few months trying to evacuate civilians to safer areas. If anything, the regime understands that its international patronage depends on it looking like the good guy fighting against terrorists who have undermined the state and decimated civil society. That’s why for months it claimed that the UN and rebel groups were vastly overestimating the amount of people left in Eastern Aleppo by a factor of 5 to 10 (250-75,000 by the UN’s estimates, 25-60,000 by the regime and other independent experts), then suddenly claimed it had evacuated 100,000 people when it had shortly before been saying it saved half that amount. It’s rather unlikely 50,000 people had been packed into 7% of the half of the city that had housed a quarter of a million people in 2012, most of whom fled when the rebels invaded that year. The regime is inflating its own numbers so that it looks humane, and has even given rebels who surrendered bus rides out of the city and allowed them to keep their guns. Syrian rebels want people using the word genocide in particular because it helps reinforce their propaganda claim, that the Syrian Civil War is in fact a “Shi’ite/Alawite/Christian genocide against Sunnis”, which helps them win backers internationally. This is exactly what the regime wants to avoid, meaning the almost certain explanation for these killings is that they were the indirect result of the two aforementioned policies of the Syrian state (the use of air and artillery in urban areas to lessen the risk of military casualties even as it increased the risk of civilian ones, and the use of poorly trained and disciplined militia members as ground troops who have been told over and over that everybody in East Aleppo is a terrorist).
There’s some other aspects of this battle that remain unmentioned in the posts I see being reblogged. First, as mentioned in the SOHR posts, the rebel side has also been using its own artillery to shell the regime-controlled West Aleppo, not even in support of any offensive but simply to terrorize the population there. The estimates by that group claim 309 civilians killed by rebel shelling over the same time period. Why is this not considered a genocide, especially since this was at least partially motivated by sectarian ideals? Second, the regime opened up evacuation corridors for civilians and rebels willing to surrender during the ceasefire periods, but the rebels shelled and shot at these routes, preventing civilians from escaping. Doesn’t that make them at least partially culpable for civilian deaths? Thirdly, the largest contingents of rebel forces on the ground in East Aleppo were from Jaish Al-Fatah, an umbrella group that includes the Al Qaeda franchise Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Al-Nusra) and Ahrar ash-Sham, “Syria’s Taliban”. These groups have been linked to numerous indiscriminate bombings and sectarian massacres, including the 2012 triple suicide car bombing in downtown Aleppo, and the 2016 killing of 42 Alawites in the village of Zarah “in revenge for Aleppo”. Many of the 1 million people living in West Aleppo were religious minorities who fled from the surrounding countryside after a Jabhat Fatah al-Sham massacre in the village of Khan al-Assal in 2013, who were then caught in the FSA siege of West Aleppo. It’s likely that there would have been a much greater amount of killing had the situation been reversed.
There have been videos of celebrations by the people of West Aleppo, who are happy not to live under the threat of rebel forces. That seems quite reasonable. There are also regime supporters going off on Twitter about how happy they are, which seems quite atrocious given their lack of connection to the conflict. As’ad AbuKhalil writes
No battle ground developments in Syria, and no changes in control of
cities, and no “victory” by one side or another or “defeat” by one side
or another, should be reason for jubilation by anyone. The human cost
is far too big to warrant celebration by anyone. I know I am alone in
this.
There has been an intense amount of posting about who did what killings without any evidence even emerging that these killings have occurred in the first place. Aleppo hasn’t even had any internet connection for most of the conflict, and virtually all internet connections in East Aleppo are limited-bandwidth rebel-controlled satellite connections. The idea that the rebels are giving up their only links to their commanders so that random civilians can tweet their final farewells is a joke (and this idea that a 7 year old girl is tweeting on those lines? Apparently regime reporter Maytham Alashkar tried to arrange an escape for her and found that whoever is running her Twitter account doesn’t speak Arabic). We may see some evidence of larger massacres come out, or we might not. We’re certainly well aware that both sides are capable of such atrocities, but we’ve got nothing to go on other than that. Please, wait to reblog and retweet until we get some evidence. And for god’s sake, don’t post that hackneyed, offensive hashtag #AleppoHolocaust that the rebels love.
honestly all the conspiracy theories about Bana are dumb. it’s her mother Fatima tweeting for her and no one ever claimed otherwise. I don’t know if Fatima speaks Arabic or not (I don’t know anything about her background but it’s possible she’s foreign, she might be Turkmen like her husband but from outside Syria) but Bana clearly does. I don’t know what that’s supposed to prove. whether or not all or any of the tweets are from Bana, she’s still a 7-year-old girl in East Aleppo exposed to constant death and destruction, a fate non 7-year-old should suffer.
that said, I do agree that comparing Aleppo to the Holocaust or Srebrenica is in really poor taste (that’s mostly directed at ppl outside Syria and dogs like Labib al Nahhas, not civilians in East Aleppo, it’s not their fault no one cares about Aleppo otherwise – people didn’t care much about Grozny and that was a much worse siege). At the same time, though, as long as this makes people donate towards humanitarian relief instead of, like, supporting the Zenki child beheaders, the damage is pretty limited imo.
as a sidenote, BBC misreported what the UN Commissioner said re: 82 civilians “shot on the spot” (they’ve now revised the article). The UN received reports of “tens of civilians” being shot dead in two separate neighbourhoods (al-Kallaseh and Bustan
al-Qasr) but the 82 number refers to total reported civilian deaths in East Aleppo, including those killed by shelling or crossfire. Which is not that surprising, the SAA have always preferred torturing people to death in prisons to mass executions out in the open.