Bingöl üniversitesi iktisadi ve idari bilimler fakültesi dergisi, Mar 23, 2023
Bu çalışmanın amacı Ukrayna-Rusya savaşı nedeniyle Avrupa Birliği’nin Rusya’dan doğal gaz alımını... more Bu çalışmanın amacı Ukrayna-Rusya savaşı nedeniyle Avrupa Birliği’nin Rusya’dan doğal gaz alımını kısıtlaması ile ortaya çıkan gelişmeler çerçevesinde, Balkan ülkelerini de kapsayan Avrupa’nın Güneydoğu bölgesindeki doğal gaz piyasasının ekopolitik açıdan incelenmesidir. Çalışmada Türkiye’nin de aralarında olduğu sekiz ülkenin doğal gaz kaynakları, ithalatları ve doğal gaz projeleriyle birlikte doğal gaz tüketimleri ekonomik açıdan incelenmiş ve Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) modelinden faydalanılarak bu ülkelerin potansiyel doğal gaz tüketimleri tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre yıllık olarak bölgenin gözlenen tüketimi 111,5 Bcm iken ima edilen tüketimi 216,9 Bcm’dir. Diğer taraftan Rusya’dan doğal gaz satın alınmadığı bir senaryo göz önüne alındığında, Güneydoğu Avrupa bölgesinin doğal gaz ihtiyacının mevcut yatırım ve imkânlarla karşılanmasının mümkün olmadığı; bölgenin LNG tesisleri ve mevcut boru hatları ile temin edilebilecek doğal gaz miktarının kendi başına yeterli olmadığı gözlemlenmiştir. Ayrıca, bölgenin enerji merkezi olma hedefi olan Yunanistan’ın LNG tesisleri ve mevcut boru hatları ile sağlayabileceği gaz miktarı da yeterli değildir. Bu nedenlerle Rusya, Güneydoğu Avrupa bölgesi doğal gaz pazarında güçlü bir oyuncu olmaya devam ederken, mevcut konjonktürde Türkiye’nin enerji merkezi olma potansiyelinin giderek arttığı söylenebilir.
This study aims to analyze the causes of price volatility transmission between natural gas and su... more This study aims to analyze the causes of price volatility transmission between natural gas and substitute energy commodities in different markets after accounting the natural gas price interdependency. Besides, it is intended to contribute to the understanding of natural gas price volatility and transmission of price volatility in energy markets and present empirical findings by applying DCC-GARCH model to the system of recent natural gas, oil, and coal price data that would be of use to academic literature as well as energy market participants, international trade parties, and policymakers. The oil and coal are substitutes for natural gas, so as the prices of the substitutes change, they affect the price and volatility of natural gas. Hence, the examination is carried out with National Balancing Point, Henry Hub, Title Transfer Facility, Zeebrugge Hub, and Japan Korean Marker prices as endogenous set of natural gas variables with prices of Brent Oil, West Texas Intermediate Oil, and Newcastle Coal as exogenous variables. Accordingly, coal prices are found to be more effective in terms of natural gas price volatility as a substitute, and the higher the coal prices, the higher the volatility of the natural gas prices. These findings are also compatible with the other exogenous variables of oil prices, but the relationship is more effective in coal prices because natural gas mainly replaces coal as a close substitute. This situation creates a source of perception in terms of pricing and price fluctuations concerning volatility in natural gas markets.
In economics, some transactions are conducted by the bid rate, and some are conducted by the ask ... more In economics, some transactions are conducted by the bid rate, and some are conducted by the ask rate. The spread between these two rates creates an essential cost and inefficiency for the economy. Taking these problems into account, the purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of macroeconomic and financial variables on the USD/TL exchange rate bid–ask spread for Türkiye using daily data spanning the period between 2 January 1990 and 2 August 2022. The quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) model was drawn upon to capture possible asymmetry in parameters and distinguish the results between different locations. The results obtained in this study may differ from the linear model and may change by the location, implying that the spread is reduced by the volume while it is increased by volatility and interest rates in the long run for some quantiles. Stock prices stir it in the long run, yet they decline it in the short run, indicating an asymmetry. Following the examp...
As it is commonly believed that the planet is facing environmental disasters as a consequence of ... more As it is commonly believed that the planet is facing environmental disasters as a consequence of climate change problematics, the European Union intends to inspire a sustainable green transition. The European Commission presented "The European Green Deal" as an indicator of this leading mission, which is a reaction to a warming atmosphere, climate change and air pollution. The European Green Deal aims to transform the countries and citizens of the European Union into a fair and competitive environment where greenhouse gas emissions will be zero by 2050. Above all, the European Green Deal is also committed to transforming the greenhouse gas emissions of other countries. Turkey, one of the leading countries in terms of the volume of trade with Europe, is required to examine the issue of carbon emissions in detail. If it were not, the European Union and Turkey could end the commercial agreements under the carbon-border adjustment mechanism of the Commission aimed at reducing carbon leakage risk, where the electricity sector is one of Turkey's most associated greenhouse gas emissions sectors. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of the Green Deal on Turkey's electricity market from both the supply and demand side, which will be affected by the Deal's carbon limits or enforcement. In addition, in this study, a road map for Turkey's electricity market is offered via comparative analysis method under the requirements of The European Green Deal.
Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2021
Para, tarihi süreç içerisinde mal para sisteminden itibari para sistemine dönüşmüş ve günümüzde d... more Para, tarihi süreç içerisinde mal para sisteminden itibari para sistemine dönüşmüş ve günümüzde dijital paralar hayatımıza girmiştir. Dijital paralar, paranın evriminde en son aşamadır ve bu teknoloji ile mümkün olmuştur. Dijital paralar, işlemleri güvence altına almak, doğrulamak ve belirli bir kriptopara biriminin yeni birimlerinin oluşturulmasını kontrol etmek için kriptografi kullanan bir değişim aracı olarak oluşturulmuştur. Bu çalışma, paranın evriminde kriptoparaların gelişimini incelemektedir. Bu bağlamda giriş bölümünde paranın gelişimi anlatıldıktan sonra ilk bölümde serbest bankacılık sistemi üzerinde durulacaktır. Çalışma, ikinci ve üçüncü bölümlerde sırasıyla Blokzinciri teknolojisini ve kriptopara sistemini karşılaştırmalı bir analiz ile açıklamaya çalışacaktır. Son olarak, çalışma sonuç ve tartışma bölümü ile bitirilecektir.
This paper analyzes how short-run interest rates are used to manage expectations of market partic... more This paper analyzes how short-run interest rates are used to manage expectations of market participants in Turkey. The dynamic effects of short-run interest rates on the expected inflation, growth, exchange rate and interest rate for the period from August, 2001 to March, 2009 using Turkish data are investigated. It is claimed that the response of expected growth of the economy is negative to short-run interest rate increases, expected inflation is positive. When an interest rate shock is given to the expected exchange rate and interest rate, both exhibit persistent properties.
The Journal of Business, Economic and Management Research, 2021
As it is commonly believed that the planet is facing environmental disasters as a consequence of ... more As it is commonly believed that the planet is facing environmental disasters as a consequence of climate change problematics, the European Union intends to inspire a sustainable green transition. The European Commission presented "The European Green Deal" as an indicator of this leading mission, which is a reaction to a warming atmosphere, climate change, and air pollution. The European Green Deal aims to transform the countries and citizens of the European Union into a fair and competitive environment where greenhouse gas emissions will be zero by 2050. Above all, the European Green Deal is also committed to transforming the greenhouse gas emissions of other countries. Turkey, one of the leading countries in terms of the volume of trade with Europe, is required to examine the issue of carbon emissions in detail. If it were not, the European Union and Turkey could end the commercial agreements under the carbon-border adjustment mechanism of the Commission aimed at reducing carbon leakage risk, where the electricity sector is one of Turkey's most associated greenhouse gas emissions sectors. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of the Green Deal on Turkey's electricity market from both the supply and demand side, which will be affected by the Deal's carbon limits or enforcement. In addition, in this study, a road map for Turkey's electricity market is offered via comparative analysis method under the requirements of The European Green Deal.
Avrupa Birliği, küresel ölçekte yaşanan ve ciddi çevresel sorunlarla karşı karşıya kalınmasına ne... more Avrupa Birliği, küresel ölçekte yaşanan ve ciddi çevresel sorunlarla karşı karşıya kalınmasına neden olan iklim değişikliğine çözüm sunabilmeyi ve ayrıca sürdürülebilir yeşil dönüşüm hususunda küresel anlamda öncülük etmeyi hedeflemektedir. Bu hedef doğrultusunda, Avrupa Komisyonu tarafından küresel çaptaki iklim ve çevre sorunlarına çözüm getirilmesi amacıyla “Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı” gerçekleştirilmiştir. Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı ile birlikte 2050 yılına kadar sıfır sera gazı emisyonunun söz konusu olduğu adil ve rekabetçi bir ortamda Avrupa Birliği ve diğer ülkelerin dönüşümü hedeflenmektedir. Söz konusu bu dönüşümün, AB üyelik sürecinde olan Türkiye için de bazı etkileri olacağı ve buna bağlı olarak çeşitli fırsatlar ortaya çıkartacağı aşikârdır. Çalışmada; Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı kapsamında atık yönetimi, sera gazı emisyonu ve Türkiye’ye yönelik muhtemel etkiler değerlendirilmiş ve öneriler sunulmuştur. Ayrıca, bir eylem araştırması ile Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı kapsamındaki atık emisyonlarının Avrupa Birliği ve Türkiye'deki etkileri analitik bir bakış açısıyla karşılaştırmalı biçimde analiz edilmiştir. Gerçekleştirilen analiz sonucunda Türkiye’nin, Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı kapsamında atık yönetimi hakkında detaylı ve objektif çalışmalar gerçekleştirerek olası fırsatları değerlendirmesi ve bunun yanı sıra olumsuz etkilere karşı tesirli önlemler alması gerekliliği ortaya konulmuştur. Yeni bir olgu olan Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı ile ilgili olarak literatürde özellikle Türkiye’deki atık yönetimi sektörü açısından sera gazı emisyonu etkilerinin incelendiği bir çalışmaya rastlanmamıştır ve bu alanda ulusal ve uluslararası literatüre katkı yapılması amaçlanmıştır.
The International Journal of Applied Economics and Finance, 2014
Exchange rate affects the manufacturing sector through investment and balance sheet channels. The... more Exchange rate affects the manufacturing sector through investment and balance sheet channels. The second channel seems to be dominant for Turkey where an increase in exchange rate increases the costs of firms and may diminish their profits. A possible common explanation for this phenomenon is the high degree of liability dollarization, supply side. That is apparent from the real sector balance sheet items especially when the capital inflows are reversed and domestic currency depreciates. On the other hand, it is not a homogenous effect for importing and exporting sectors. It depends on the production and financial dependency structure of each sector. Taking into account the importance of negativities in micro basis may convert to a macro scale negativity in the long-run. This study provides sectoral liability dollarization ratios during the years 2009-2012 for the Turkish economy. The ratios are calculated for total companies, total manufacturing and 22 sub-sectors in manufacturing and they are compared according to their total, short-run and long-run liability structures. The scales of the companies are taken into account and possible diversifications among the sectors in manufacturing are discussed. Possible effects of the domestic currency depreciation on the liability dollarization of the sectors are evaluated.
Journal of Third Sector Social Economic Review, 2020
In this study, it was intended to capture a better relationship between the determined macroecono... more In this study, it was intended to capture a better relationship between the determined macroeconomic variables and natural gas prices via the long-term natural gas contracts of Turkey, due to the upcoming expiry dates for some of the long-term natural gas contracts that Turkey signed before. Especially, the long-term contracts between Turkey and Russia are taken as a basis and examined because Turkey mostly imports natural gas as well as crude oil and products from Russia, and the nearest long-term natural gas contract expiry date is the one with them. The main underlying cause of such a study is based on Turkey's need of ensuring energy supply security for its ever-growing population and economy as well as accessing clean and cheaper energy sources like natural gas, as a net energy importer country via alternative long-term natural gas contracts more suitable for both sides. Exclusively with the help of the Historical Decomposition Method by benefitting the Near-VAR Model, the missing part about the quantitative examination of long-term natural gas contracts and economic performance of Turkey was attempted to be executed by applying econometric techniques explained in the methodology part of the paper. These econometric techniques implemented in three different scenarios and, besides, five different natural gas price formulas are offered for Turkey's long-term natural gas contracts to be discussed in detail. The scenarios are based on concerning different energy commodities and different regional benchmarks by considering the effects on many macroeconomic variables or vice versa. Consequently, as an empirical finding, it has been obtained that a better performance can be demonstrated in terms of industrial production with one of the formulas produced as an alternative.
Bingöl üniversitesi iktisadi ve idari bilimler fakültesi dergisi, Mar 23, 2023
Bu çalışmanın amacı Ukrayna-Rusya savaşı nedeniyle Avrupa Birliği’nin Rusya’dan doğal gaz alımını... more Bu çalışmanın amacı Ukrayna-Rusya savaşı nedeniyle Avrupa Birliği’nin Rusya’dan doğal gaz alımını kısıtlaması ile ortaya çıkan gelişmeler çerçevesinde, Balkan ülkelerini de kapsayan Avrupa’nın Güneydoğu bölgesindeki doğal gaz piyasasının ekopolitik açıdan incelenmesidir. Çalışmada Türkiye’nin de aralarında olduğu sekiz ülkenin doğal gaz kaynakları, ithalatları ve doğal gaz projeleriyle birlikte doğal gaz tüketimleri ekonomik açıdan incelenmiş ve Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) modelinden faydalanılarak bu ülkelerin potansiyel doğal gaz tüketimleri tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre yıllık olarak bölgenin gözlenen tüketimi 111,5 Bcm iken ima edilen tüketimi 216,9 Bcm’dir. Diğer taraftan Rusya’dan doğal gaz satın alınmadığı bir senaryo göz önüne alındığında, Güneydoğu Avrupa bölgesinin doğal gaz ihtiyacının mevcut yatırım ve imkânlarla karşılanmasının mümkün olmadığı; bölgenin LNG tesisleri ve mevcut boru hatları ile temin edilebilecek doğal gaz miktarının kendi başına yeterli olmadığı gözlemlenmiştir. Ayrıca, bölgenin enerji merkezi olma hedefi olan Yunanistan’ın LNG tesisleri ve mevcut boru hatları ile sağlayabileceği gaz miktarı da yeterli değildir. Bu nedenlerle Rusya, Güneydoğu Avrupa bölgesi doğal gaz pazarında güçlü bir oyuncu olmaya devam ederken, mevcut konjonktürde Türkiye’nin enerji merkezi olma potansiyelinin giderek arttığı söylenebilir.
This study aims to analyze the causes of price volatility transmission between natural gas and su... more This study aims to analyze the causes of price volatility transmission between natural gas and substitute energy commodities in different markets after accounting the natural gas price interdependency. Besides, it is intended to contribute to the understanding of natural gas price volatility and transmission of price volatility in energy markets and present empirical findings by applying DCC-GARCH model to the system of recent natural gas, oil, and coal price data that would be of use to academic literature as well as energy market participants, international trade parties, and policymakers. The oil and coal are substitutes for natural gas, so as the prices of the substitutes change, they affect the price and volatility of natural gas. Hence, the examination is carried out with National Balancing Point, Henry Hub, Title Transfer Facility, Zeebrugge Hub, and Japan Korean Marker prices as endogenous set of natural gas variables with prices of Brent Oil, West Texas Intermediate Oil, and Newcastle Coal as exogenous variables. Accordingly, coal prices are found to be more effective in terms of natural gas price volatility as a substitute, and the higher the coal prices, the higher the volatility of the natural gas prices. These findings are also compatible with the other exogenous variables of oil prices, but the relationship is more effective in coal prices because natural gas mainly replaces coal as a close substitute. This situation creates a source of perception in terms of pricing and price fluctuations concerning volatility in natural gas markets.
In economics, some transactions are conducted by the bid rate, and some are conducted by the ask ... more In economics, some transactions are conducted by the bid rate, and some are conducted by the ask rate. The spread between these two rates creates an essential cost and inefficiency for the economy. Taking these problems into account, the purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of macroeconomic and financial variables on the USD/TL exchange rate bid–ask spread for Türkiye using daily data spanning the period between 2 January 1990 and 2 August 2022. The quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) model was drawn upon to capture possible asymmetry in parameters and distinguish the results between different locations. The results obtained in this study may differ from the linear model and may change by the location, implying that the spread is reduced by the volume while it is increased by volatility and interest rates in the long run for some quantiles. Stock prices stir it in the long run, yet they decline it in the short run, indicating an asymmetry. Following the examp...
As it is commonly believed that the planet is facing environmental disasters as a consequence of ... more As it is commonly believed that the planet is facing environmental disasters as a consequence of climate change problematics, the European Union intends to inspire a sustainable green transition. The European Commission presented "The European Green Deal" as an indicator of this leading mission, which is a reaction to a warming atmosphere, climate change and air pollution. The European Green Deal aims to transform the countries and citizens of the European Union into a fair and competitive environment where greenhouse gas emissions will be zero by 2050. Above all, the European Green Deal is also committed to transforming the greenhouse gas emissions of other countries. Turkey, one of the leading countries in terms of the volume of trade with Europe, is required to examine the issue of carbon emissions in detail. If it were not, the European Union and Turkey could end the commercial agreements under the carbon-border adjustment mechanism of the Commission aimed at reducing carbon leakage risk, where the electricity sector is one of Turkey's most associated greenhouse gas emissions sectors. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of the Green Deal on Turkey's electricity market from both the supply and demand side, which will be affected by the Deal's carbon limits or enforcement. In addition, in this study, a road map for Turkey's electricity market is offered via comparative analysis method under the requirements of The European Green Deal.
Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2021
Para, tarihi süreç içerisinde mal para sisteminden itibari para sistemine dönüşmüş ve günümüzde d... more Para, tarihi süreç içerisinde mal para sisteminden itibari para sistemine dönüşmüş ve günümüzde dijital paralar hayatımıza girmiştir. Dijital paralar, paranın evriminde en son aşamadır ve bu teknoloji ile mümkün olmuştur. Dijital paralar, işlemleri güvence altına almak, doğrulamak ve belirli bir kriptopara biriminin yeni birimlerinin oluşturulmasını kontrol etmek için kriptografi kullanan bir değişim aracı olarak oluşturulmuştur. Bu çalışma, paranın evriminde kriptoparaların gelişimini incelemektedir. Bu bağlamda giriş bölümünde paranın gelişimi anlatıldıktan sonra ilk bölümde serbest bankacılık sistemi üzerinde durulacaktır. Çalışma, ikinci ve üçüncü bölümlerde sırasıyla Blokzinciri teknolojisini ve kriptopara sistemini karşılaştırmalı bir analiz ile açıklamaya çalışacaktır. Son olarak, çalışma sonuç ve tartışma bölümü ile bitirilecektir.
This paper analyzes how short-run interest rates are used to manage expectations of market partic... more This paper analyzes how short-run interest rates are used to manage expectations of market participants in Turkey. The dynamic effects of short-run interest rates on the expected inflation, growth, exchange rate and interest rate for the period from August, 2001 to March, 2009 using Turkish data are investigated. It is claimed that the response of expected growth of the economy is negative to short-run interest rate increases, expected inflation is positive. When an interest rate shock is given to the expected exchange rate and interest rate, both exhibit persistent properties.
The Journal of Business, Economic and Management Research, 2021
As it is commonly believed that the planet is facing environmental disasters as a consequence of ... more As it is commonly believed that the planet is facing environmental disasters as a consequence of climate change problematics, the European Union intends to inspire a sustainable green transition. The European Commission presented "The European Green Deal" as an indicator of this leading mission, which is a reaction to a warming atmosphere, climate change, and air pollution. The European Green Deal aims to transform the countries and citizens of the European Union into a fair and competitive environment where greenhouse gas emissions will be zero by 2050. Above all, the European Green Deal is also committed to transforming the greenhouse gas emissions of other countries. Turkey, one of the leading countries in terms of the volume of trade with Europe, is required to examine the issue of carbon emissions in detail. If it were not, the European Union and Turkey could end the commercial agreements under the carbon-border adjustment mechanism of the Commission aimed at reducing carbon leakage risk, where the electricity sector is one of Turkey's most associated greenhouse gas emissions sectors. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of the Green Deal on Turkey's electricity market from both the supply and demand side, which will be affected by the Deal's carbon limits or enforcement. In addition, in this study, a road map for Turkey's electricity market is offered via comparative analysis method under the requirements of The European Green Deal.
Avrupa Birliği, küresel ölçekte yaşanan ve ciddi çevresel sorunlarla karşı karşıya kalınmasına ne... more Avrupa Birliği, küresel ölçekte yaşanan ve ciddi çevresel sorunlarla karşı karşıya kalınmasına neden olan iklim değişikliğine çözüm sunabilmeyi ve ayrıca sürdürülebilir yeşil dönüşüm hususunda küresel anlamda öncülük etmeyi hedeflemektedir. Bu hedef doğrultusunda, Avrupa Komisyonu tarafından küresel çaptaki iklim ve çevre sorunlarına çözüm getirilmesi amacıyla “Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı” gerçekleştirilmiştir. Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı ile birlikte 2050 yılına kadar sıfır sera gazı emisyonunun söz konusu olduğu adil ve rekabetçi bir ortamda Avrupa Birliği ve diğer ülkelerin dönüşümü hedeflenmektedir. Söz konusu bu dönüşümün, AB üyelik sürecinde olan Türkiye için de bazı etkileri olacağı ve buna bağlı olarak çeşitli fırsatlar ortaya çıkartacağı aşikârdır. Çalışmada; Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı kapsamında atık yönetimi, sera gazı emisyonu ve Türkiye’ye yönelik muhtemel etkiler değerlendirilmiş ve öneriler sunulmuştur. Ayrıca, bir eylem araştırması ile Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı kapsamındaki atık emisyonlarının Avrupa Birliği ve Türkiye'deki etkileri analitik bir bakış açısıyla karşılaştırmalı biçimde analiz edilmiştir. Gerçekleştirilen analiz sonucunda Türkiye’nin, Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı kapsamında atık yönetimi hakkında detaylı ve objektif çalışmalar gerçekleştirerek olası fırsatları değerlendirmesi ve bunun yanı sıra olumsuz etkilere karşı tesirli önlemler alması gerekliliği ortaya konulmuştur. Yeni bir olgu olan Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı ile ilgili olarak literatürde özellikle Türkiye’deki atık yönetimi sektörü açısından sera gazı emisyonu etkilerinin incelendiği bir çalışmaya rastlanmamıştır ve bu alanda ulusal ve uluslararası literatüre katkı yapılması amaçlanmıştır.
The International Journal of Applied Economics and Finance, 2014
Exchange rate affects the manufacturing sector through investment and balance sheet channels. The... more Exchange rate affects the manufacturing sector through investment and balance sheet channels. The second channel seems to be dominant for Turkey where an increase in exchange rate increases the costs of firms and may diminish their profits. A possible common explanation for this phenomenon is the high degree of liability dollarization, supply side. That is apparent from the real sector balance sheet items especially when the capital inflows are reversed and domestic currency depreciates. On the other hand, it is not a homogenous effect for importing and exporting sectors. It depends on the production and financial dependency structure of each sector. Taking into account the importance of negativities in micro basis may convert to a macro scale negativity in the long-run. This study provides sectoral liability dollarization ratios during the years 2009-2012 for the Turkish economy. The ratios are calculated for total companies, total manufacturing and 22 sub-sectors in manufacturing and they are compared according to their total, short-run and long-run liability structures. The scales of the companies are taken into account and possible diversifications among the sectors in manufacturing are discussed. Possible effects of the domestic currency depreciation on the liability dollarization of the sectors are evaluated.
Journal of Third Sector Social Economic Review, 2020
In this study, it was intended to capture a better relationship between the determined macroecono... more In this study, it was intended to capture a better relationship between the determined macroeconomic variables and natural gas prices via the long-term natural gas contracts of Turkey, due to the upcoming expiry dates for some of the long-term natural gas contracts that Turkey signed before. Especially, the long-term contracts between Turkey and Russia are taken as a basis and examined because Turkey mostly imports natural gas as well as crude oil and products from Russia, and the nearest long-term natural gas contract expiry date is the one with them. The main underlying cause of such a study is based on Turkey's need of ensuring energy supply security for its ever-growing population and economy as well as accessing clean and cheaper energy sources like natural gas, as a net energy importer country via alternative long-term natural gas contracts more suitable for both sides. Exclusively with the help of the Historical Decomposition Method by benefitting the Near-VAR Model, the missing part about the quantitative examination of long-term natural gas contracts and economic performance of Turkey was attempted to be executed by applying econometric techniques explained in the methodology part of the paper. These econometric techniques implemented in three different scenarios and, besides, five different natural gas price formulas are offered for Turkey's long-term natural gas contracts to be discussed in detail. The scenarios are based on concerning different energy commodities and different regional benchmarks by considering the effects on many macroeconomic variables or vice versa. Consequently, as an empirical finding, it has been obtained that a better performance can be demonstrated in terms of industrial production with one of the formulas produced as an alternative.
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