Papers by Julio J . Nogues
World Bank policy research working paper, Jun 18, 2003
On December 10, 2001 the U.S. Department of under the regulatory arrangements of the DOC, Commerc... more On December 10, 2001 the U.S. Department of under the regulatory arrangements of the DOC, Commerce (DOC) imposed steep antidumping duties Argentina's beekeepers never had a chance of defending against honey imports from Argentina and China ranging themselves. For example, responding to the DOC's froIm 32.6 percent to 183.8 percent, and a countervailing lengthy and sophisticated questionnaires that sought to duty against Argentina of 5.9 percent. A previous determine cost of production went beyond the capacities antidumping investigation in 1995 ended with a of poor beekeepers. In the absence of information, the suspension "agreement" that curtailed U.S. imports from DOC resorted to evidence presented by the petitioners China by around 30 percent. Millions of beekeepers which was riddled with errors. The available evidence around the world, most of them poor, make a living suggests that had beekeepers been capable of responding from honey production, and a free and competitive to the questionnaires, the margin of dumping would had world market would help raise their standards of living. been lower, if at all existent. This and other evidence Nevertheless, the sequential pattern of increasing and discussed by Nogues suggest the urgent need to widening protectionism followed by the United States, introduce reforms into the World Trade Organization the world's top importer, to include successful exporters antidumping and subsidy agreements. At the minimum under the effects of its contingent protection measures what is required is a consensus that all respondents be sends a clear message that other countries should think given the same opportunity by the international trade twice before investing in expandiig honey exports to the rules. The author argues that at present this is not the United States. case and offers suggestions for reforms. In addition to looking into the trade effects of these contingent protection measures, Nogues concludes that This paper-a product of Trade, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to improve trade policy work for development. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank,
Journal of Applied Economics, May 1, 2001
The opening of the capital account was one of the important structural reforms implemented by Arg... more The opening of the capital account was one of the important structural reforms implemented by Argentina. This liberalization increased the linkage of the real economy with the changing conditions of the international financial markets. In particular, recent data show a clear relation between interest rates and the business cycle on the one hand, and sovereign spreads on the other. In order to understand better these linkages, it is necessary to analyze the determinants of these spreads also known as country risk. Using monthly data for the period 1994 to 1998, we find that this spread is explained by: 1) growth expectations, 2) fiscal deficits, 3) the debt service to export ratio and its growth rate, 4) contagion effects, 5) external shocks including movements of international interest rates, and 6) political noise. Based on these findings, we offer a discussion of some of the policies that should be implemented in order for the spreads to start declining and for the country to eventually reach an "investment grade" rating for its sovereign bonds.
The World Economy, Mar 1, 2002
The Uruguay Round involved a grand North-South the South, the new domestic regulations adopted by... more The Uruguay Round involved a grand North-South the South, the new domestic regulations adopted by bargain: The North reduced import barriers, particularly countries of the South could prove costly to those in textiles and agriculture. The South adopted new countries. To begin with, the regulations will be domestic regulations in such areas as services and expensive to implement. And while the cost side of their intellectual property-changes that would lead to impact is secured by a legal obligation (in the case of increased purchases from the North. In mercantilist intellectual property rights, for example, the cost is economics, apples for applesimports for imports. In higher prices for patented goods), the benefits side is not real economics, apples for oranges. so secured. Finger and Nogues argue that while the North's reduction of import barriers benefits both the North and This paper-a product of Trade, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to help developing countries to use the WTO as an effective instrument for development and was supported in part by the World Bank/ Netherlands Partnership. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank,
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2015
This report quantifies the short run impacts of eliminating agricultural export barriers on sever... more This report quantifies the short run impacts of eliminating agricultural export barriers on several variables including treasury revenues, fiscal federalism, farm gate prices, consumer foodstuffs prices and sector employment. In essence estimates are based on comparative static and partial equilibrium analysis. Also by estimating rates of unproductive protectionist rents, the discussion sheds light on the sectors and interests that are likely to loose from this liberalization and oppose it including firms receiving discretionary export permits and politically driven public expenditures financed from the discretionary allocation of revenues from export taxes such as over sizing public employment. Capítulo 5: Barreras, empleo y salarios en el sector agropecuario y agroindustrial 5.1 Introducción 5.2 Tendencias del empleo 5.3 El entorno macroeconómico y los salarios 5.4 Empleo y salarios en el sector agropecuario y agroindustrial 5.5 Impactos de una eliminación de las barreras sobre el empleo: 2016-2019 5.6 Conclusiones, limitaciones y sugerencias Apéndice al capítulo 5: El fracaso de los programas en favor de las PYMES pampeanas Bibliografía Capítulo 6: Identificando los intereses opuestos a la liberalización 6.1 Introducción 6.2 Barreras, rent seeking y el costo social de las políticas discrecionales 6.2 Barreras sobre las exportaciones como generadora de rentas improductivas 6.3 Derechos de exportación y clientelismo político 6.4 Oposición a la liberalización por parte de algunos sectores agroindustriales 6.5 Resumen Capítulo 7: Principales conclusiones
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Dec 31, 2001
The Uruguay Round involved a grand North-South the South, the new domestic regulations adopted by... more The Uruguay Round involved a grand North-South the South, the new domestic regulations adopted by bargain: The North reduced import barriers, particularly countries of the South could prove costly to those in textiles and agriculture. The South adopted new countries. To begin with, the regulations will be domestic regulations in such areas as services and expensive to implement. And while the cost side of their intellectual property-changes that would lead to impact is secured by a legal obligation (in the case of increased purchases from the North. In mercantilist intellectual property rights, for example, the cost is economics, apples for applesimports for imports. In higher prices for patented goods), the benefits side is not real economics, apples for oranges. so secured. Finger and Nogues argue that while the North's reduction of import barriers benefits both the North and This paper-a product of Trade, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to help developing countries to use the WTO as an effective instrument for development and was supported in part by the World Bank/ Netherlands Partnership. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank,
The World Bank eBooks, Jun 1, 2005
expectation that the WTO Dispute Settlement mechanism will clarify them. Third, an overvalued cur... more expectation that the WTO Dispute Settlement mechanism will clarify them. Third, an overvalued currency heightened the industry's problems. In the case of footwear, the decline in imports following the recent devaluation was more important than that following the implementation of earlier relief measures. Fourth, the political economy of liberalization also indicates the need for regional agreements to include adequate transition mechanisms that will facilitate adjustment to free trade and to maintain support for it.
World Bank Publications, 2006
This book is about policy managers in national capitals, particularly those who created and used ... more This book is about policy managers in national capitals, particularly those who created and used "trade defense" or "contingent protection" mechanisms to support unprecedented programs of trade liberalization. Although such mechanismssafeguards and antidumping in particular-are often associated with international negotiations and trade relations between countries, this book is about the domestic management of trade policy. It is about the management of an agreement between government and domestic producers on what kind and what amount of international competition industry must face. Many investigations of the use of trade defense instruments have been published in the recent past; a survey article by Professor Douglas Nelson of Tulane University (forthcoming) lists more than 200 references. But, as Professor Nelson points out, this research has been conducted in large part from the perspective of safeguards and antidumping being used as instruments for creating protection. That work focuses on the temptations to seek protection that these mechanisms arouse. The literature, he notes, sees trade defense as villain rather than as hero. The work we report here comes from the more heroic perspective. This work focuses on how creation of these World Trade Organization-sanctioned mechanisms closed off other opportunities to seek protection and on how the mechanisms helped policy managers to introduce politically effective constraints on pressures that had overcome previous attempts at liberalization. We also depart from the common perception that the existence of detailed international agreements and national codes on safeguards and on antidumping means that using these instruments is no more than a technical matter of "following the rules," an activity that demands no political or managerial skill. The experiences reviewed in this book show, however, that this perception is not correct.
The World Bank eBooks, Dec 2, 2005
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
The journal of world investment & trade, 2005
expectation that the WTO Dispute Settlement mechanism will clarify them. Third, an overvalued cur... more expectation that the WTO Dispute Settlement mechanism will clarify them. Third, an overvalued currency heightened the industry's problems. In the case of footwear, the decline in imports following the recent devaluation was more important than that following the implementation of earlier relief measures. Fourth, the political economy of liberalization also indicates the need for regional agreements to include adequate transition mechanisms that will facilitate adjustment to free trade and to maintain support for it.
Sustaining Trade Reform: Institutional Lessons from Peru and Argentina, Jul 11, 2013
The World Bank eBooks, Jul 11, 2013
World Bank OPolicy Research Working Paper 3587, 2005
In the early 1990s Argentina opened its economy while the flexible GATT rules on antidumping and ... more In the early 1990s Argentina opened its economy while the flexible GATT rules on antidumping and safeguards were still in place. The recently unilateral trade liberalizing policies that had been adopted, triggered a surge in the demand for antidumping and safeguard measures that if applied, would had reversed segments of the liberalizing program.. The only choice that the government had was to turn down several of these requests which it did.
Shortly after the WTO came into existence, the same government adopted WTO plus rules on antidumping and safeguards. Also, in order to minimize the protectionist effects that often arise from these measures, their administration was splitted following the US model: the margin of dumping was to be measured by the Secretariat of Commerce and injury test became now the responsibility of the newly created National Commission on International Trade (Comision Nacional de Comercio Exterior). These changes reduced the the demand for antidumping and safeguards measures quite significantly..
The 1990s witnessed a unique trade liberalizing experiment that returned the trade policy environment to what the country had adopted between the 1870s and the 1990s, the period of fastest economic growth in Argentina history pushed mostly by the growth of foreign trade. Unfortunately this attempt at establishing an outward-oriented economy was short-lived as the peso became highly overvalued and a new and major devaluation came into effect. The crisis dragged the President out of office and opened the door to two additional decades of populist policies.
Social Science Research Network, 2005
expectation that the WTO Dispute Settlement mechanism will clarify them. Third, an overvalued cur... more expectation that the WTO Dispute Settlement mechanism will clarify them. Third, an overvalued currency heightened the industry's problems. In the case of footwear, the decline in imports following the recent devaluation was more important than that following the implementation of earlier relief measures. Fourth, the political economy of liberalization also indicates the need for regional agreements to include adequate transition mechanisms that will facilitate adjustment to free trade and to maintain support for it.
The World Bank eBooks, Jun 1, 2005
we acknowledge the editorial work of Ms. María N. Gondell. In spite of all these contributions, w... more we acknowledge the editorial work of Ms. María N. Gondell. In spite of all these contributions, we remain solely responsible for the contents and interpretations offered in this paper.
The World Bank eBooks, Jul 11, 2013
World Trade Review, Apr 20, 2015
North was a big winner overRound Outcome the South at the Uruguay
Over the past five years, the World Bank has undertaken a major project looking at how to achieve... more Over the past five years, the World Bank has undertaken a major project looking at how to achieve the benefits of open trading through liberalization policies. This has involved very detailed analysis of the experience of 19 countries to uncover the fundamental principles by which governments can achieve neutrality in their countries' trading systems and the demonstrable advantages of an international free market economy. The results of the work are published in seven volumes, two each for each of the three major regions (Latin America, Asia and Pacific and Mediterranean) plus a volume synthesizing the results and acting as a manual of trade liberalization.
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Papers by Julio J . Nogues
Shortly after the WTO came into existence, the same government adopted WTO plus rules on antidumping and safeguards. Also, in order to minimize the protectionist effects that often arise from these measures, their administration was splitted following the US model: the margin of dumping was to be measured by the Secretariat of Commerce and injury test became now the responsibility of the newly created National Commission on International Trade (Comision Nacional de Comercio Exterior). These changes reduced the the demand for antidumping and safeguards measures quite significantly..
The 1990s witnessed a unique trade liberalizing experiment that returned the trade policy environment to what the country had adopted between the 1870s and the 1990s, the period of fastest economic growth in Argentina history pushed mostly by the growth of foreign trade. Unfortunately this attempt at establishing an outward-oriented economy was short-lived as the peso became highly overvalued and a new and major devaluation came into effect. The crisis dragged the President out of office and opened the door to two additional decades of populist policies.
Shortly after the WTO came into existence, the same government adopted WTO plus rules on antidumping and safeguards. Also, in order to minimize the protectionist effects that often arise from these measures, their administration was splitted following the US model: the margin of dumping was to be measured by the Secretariat of Commerce and injury test became now the responsibility of the newly created National Commission on International Trade (Comision Nacional de Comercio Exterior). These changes reduced the the demand for antidumping and safeguards measures quite significantly..
The 1990s witnessed a unique trade liberalizing experiment that returned the trade policy environment to what the country had adopted between the 1870s and the 1990s, the period of fastest economic growth in Argentina history pushed mostly by the growth of foreign trade. Unfortunately this attempt at establishing an outward-oriented economy was short-lived as the peso became highly overvalued and a new and major devaluation came into effect. The crisis dragged the President out of office and opened the door to two additional decades of populist policies.