Unemployment has increased sharply in many countries and has become more persistent. Thus, unempl... more Unemployment has increased sharply in many countries and has become more persistent. Thus, unemployment is widely accepted as a major indicator for the performance of a country's labor market. As a closely watched economic indicator, the unemployment rate
The aim of this paper is to examine whether the First Law of Petropol-itics denominated by Friedm... more The aim of this paper is to examine whether the First Law of Petropol-itics denominated by Friedman in 2006 is valid for OPEC countries. To do this, this paper analyses the relationship between political risk and oil supply by applying the asymmetric panel causality test suggested by Hatemi-J (2011) to these countries for the period 1984-2014. The results show that the First Law of Petropolitics is valid for Angola, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qa-tar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, given that positive oil supply shocks significantly lead to negative political stability shocks, and negative oil supply shocks significantly lead to positive shocks in political stability.
International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2015
In this research, the relationship between income inequality and the KOF index of globalization i... more In this research, the relationship between income inequality and the KOF index of globalization is determined using panel data covering G7 countries 1970-2010. This study applying Kónya (2006)'s bootstrap panel Granger causality test, which takes into account cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity simultaneously, analyzes the impact of globalization on income inequality in terms of economic, social, political and overall dimensions among examined countries. Empirical results indicate one-way causality from economic globalization to income inequality in Canada and France, two-way causality between economic globalization to income inequality in only the UK; one-way causality from social globalization to income inequality in France and the UK; one-way causality from political globalization to income inequality in only France. When analyzing the causality between the aggregate globalization and income inequality, it is observed that overall globalization positively causes income inequality in Canada and the UK and negatively in France, while in the case of Germany, Italy, Japan and the USA there is no empirical evidence of causality between globalization indices and income inequality in either direction.
Life expectancy is one of the fundamental determinants of population health and economic developm... more Life expectancy is one of the fundamental determinants of population health and economic development of a country. This study determines the impact of life expectancy according to the sex difference on economic growth. We construct a simple growth model which includes the gender disaggregated effect of life expectancy, energy use per capita and trade openness. Results from Pooled Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression estimation using data from 10 Newly Industrialized countries covering period 1980-2012 suggest that male life expectancy has a significant positive effect on economic growth while female life expectancy has a significant negative effect on economic growth. Additionally, results suggest that increasing energy use per capita and trade openness is associated with higher growth.
This study examines the relationship between the total fertility rate and per capita GDP based on... more This study examines the relationship between the total fertility rate and per capita GDP based on the Demographic-Economic Paradox in 10 Newly Industrialized Countries for the period 1980-2012. Using the Panel Ordinary Least Squares method, the results of the study support the existence of the Demographic-Economic Paradox, which is described that nations or subpopulations with higher GDP per capita are observed to have fewer children, even though a richer population can support more children. Also, this study examines the causal relationship between fertility and per capita GDP through the Granger non-causality test developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012). The panel causality test results indicate the presence of bilateral causality relationship between the two variables.
Using panel least squares estimation method, this study examines the links between both the busin... more Using panel least squares estimation method, this study examines the links between both the business cycles-the components of political stability and the business cycles-aggregate political index (overall score) in the Fragile Five countries, namely Turkey, Indonesia, India, South Africa and Brazil for the period 1986-2013. According to the empirical findings, higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP. Moreover, the results suggest that law and order, socio-economic conditions and internal conflict have a positive impact on GDP growth rate. In other words, countries with a lower political risk related to these three indicators had greater GDP growth rate in the period 1986 to 2013. In addition, other findings suggest that high inflation and greater population growth are associated with lower GDP growth, while GDP growth rate in a previous year are positively associated with the business cycles. So, we concluded that political stability is playing an important role in shaping of the business cycles of the Fragile Five countries.
This study examines the dynamic linkages between crude petroleum imports and GDP of Turkey. The v... more This study examines the dynamic linkages between crude petroleum imports and GDP of Turkey. The vector autoregression analysis is carried on quarterly data for the period 1998Q1 to 2013Q2. This study utilized the generalized approach to forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis which have many advantages against the traditional orthogonalized approach. The empirical results suggest that petroleum imports have positive impact on GDP until the second quarter. But, after the second quarter crude petroleum imports have negative impact on GDP. The results of the Granger causality test showed that crude petroleum imports granger caused GDP at 5% significance level, but not vice versa. Moreover, the generalized variance decomposition analysis exerted that the imports of crude petroleum shocks have only a small effect on GDP initially. However, after eighth quarters, the imports of crude petroleum shocks explain 31.7 pct. of the GDP, whereas 26.46 pct. of the variation in imports of crude petroleum shocks is explained by GDP shocks.
Reducing exchange rate and inflation, transaction costs and achieving the economic convergence am... more Reducing exchange rate and inflation, transaction costs and achieving the economic convergence among member countries are major causes of establishing a monetary union. This paper examines the effects of European Economic and Monetary Union on inflows of foreign direct investments to the Eurozone by using panel data from 16 Group of 20 countries for the period 1999-2012. We found that real GDP, GDP growth rate and exchange rates of 16 Group20 countries affect inflows of real foreign direct investment positively while exchange rate volatility, inflation volatility and distance affects inflows of real foreign direct investment negatively. So European Economic and Monetary Union contribute to the inflows of foreign direct investment by reducing the exchange rate volatility, inflation volatility and distance and supporting economic growth.
The relationship between economic freedom and economic growth has always been discussed and inves... more The relationship between economic freedom and economic growth has always been discussed and investigated in the economic literature. This study investigates both the relationship among economic freedom, inflation rate, economic growth and, separately, economic freedom indices, inflation rate and economic growth in 23 uppermiddle income countries during 1995-2010. Pooled Least Squares and Two-way Panel Least Squares methods are used to estimate two different models. According to the results of these tests, economic freedom has a significantly positive effect, while inflation rate has a significantly negative effect on economic growth. When the components of economic freedom are examined separately, it was found that the coefficient of some components of economic freedom, such as government size index and business freedom index, were not significant variables. All other components of economic freedom are significantly related to economic growth.
Unemployment has increased sharply in many countries and has become more persistent. Thus, unempl... more Unemployment has increased sharply in many countries and has become more persistent. Thus, unemployment is widely accepted as a major indicator for the performance of a country's labor market. As a closely watched economic indicator, the unemployment rate
The aim of this paper is to examine whether the First Law of Petropol-itics denominated by Friedm... more The aim of this paper is to examine whether the First Law of Petropol-itics denominated by Friedman in 2006 is valid for OPEC countries. To do this, this paper analyses the relationship between political risk and oil supply by applying the asymmetric panel causality test suggested by Hatemi-J (2011) to these countries for the period 1984-2014. The results show that the First Law of Petropolitics is valid for Angola, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qa-tar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, given that positive oil supply shocks significantly lead to negative political stability shocks, and negative oil supply shocks significantly lead to positive shocks in political stability.
International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2015
In this research, the relationship between income inequality and the KOF index of globalization i... more In this research, the relationship between income inequality and the KOF index of globalization is determined using panel data covering G7 countries 1970-2010. This study applying Kónya (2006)'s bootstrap panel Granger causality test, which takes into account cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity simultaneously, analyzes the impact of globalization on income inequality in terms of economic, social, political and overall dimensions among examined countries. Empirical results indicate one-way causality from economic globalization to income inequality in Canada and France, two-way causality between economic globalization to income inequality in only the UK; one-way causality from social globalization to income inequality in France and the UK; one-way causality from political globalization to income inequality in only France. When analyzing the causality between the aggregate globalization and income inequality, it is observed that overall globalization positively causes income inequality in Canada and the UK and negatively in France, while in the case of Germany, Italy, Japan and the USA there is no empirical evidence of causality between globalization indices and income inequality in either direction.
Life expectancy is one of the fundamental determinants of population health and economic developm... more Life expectancy is one of the fundamental determinants of population health and economic development of a country. This study determines the impact of life expectancy according to the sex difference on economic growth. We construct a simple growth model which includes the gender disaggregated effect of life expectancy, energy use per capita and trade openness. Results from Pooled Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression estimation using data from 10 Newly Industrialized countries covering period 1980-2012 suggest that male life expectancy has a significant positive effect on economic growth while female life expectancy has a significant negative effect on economic growth. Additionally, results suggest that increasing energy use per capita and trade openness is associated with higher growth.
This study examines the relationship between the total fertility rate and per capita GDP based on... more This study examines the relationship between the total fertility rate and per capita GDP based on the Demographic-Economic Paradox in 10 Newly Industrialized Countries for the period 1980-2012. Using the Panel Ordinary Least Squares method, the results of the study support the existence of the Demographic-Economic Paradox, which is described that nations or subpopulations with higher GDP per capita are observed to have fewer children, even though a richer population can support more children. Also, this study examines the causal relationship between fertility and per capita GDP through the Granger non-causality test developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012). The panel causality test results indicate the presence of bilateral causality relationship between the two variables.
Using panel least squares estimation method, this study examines the links between both the busin... more Using panel least squares estimation method, this study examines the links between both the business cycles-the components of political stability and the business cycles-aggregate political index (overall score) in the Fragile Five countries, namely Turkey, Indonesia, India, South Africa and Brazil for the period 1986-2013. According to the empirical findings, higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP. Moreover, the results suggest that law and order, socio-economic conditions and internal conflict have a positive impact on GDP growth rate. In other words, countries with a lower political risk related to these three indicators had greater GDP growth rate in the period 1986 to 2013. In addition, other findings suggest that high inflation and greater population growth are associated with lower GDP growth, while GDP growth rate in a previous year are positively associated with the business cycles. So, we concluded that political stability is playing an important role in shaping of the business cycles of the Fragile Five countries.
This study examines the dynamic linkages between crude petroleum imports and GDP of Turkey. The v... more This study examines the dynamic linkages between crude petroleum imports and GDP of Turkey. The vector autoregression analysis is carried on quarterly data for the period 1998Q1 to 2013Q2. This study utilized the generalized approach to forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis which have many advantages against the traditional orthogonalized approach. The empirical results suggest that petroleum imports have positive impact on GDP until the second quarter. But, after the second quarter crude petroleum imports have negative impact on GDP. The results of the Granger causality test showed that crude petroleum imports granger caused GDP at 5% significance level, but not vice versa. Moreover, the generalized variance decomposition analysis exerted that the imports of crude petroleum shocks have only a small effect on GDP initially. However, after eighth quarters, the imports of crude petroleum shocks explain 31.7 pct. of the GDP, whereas 26.46 pct. of the variation in imports of crude petroleum shocks is explained by GDP shocks.
Reducing exchange rate and inflation, transaction costs and achieving the economic convergence am... more Reducing exchange rate and inflation, transaction costs and achieving the economic convergence among member countries are major causes of establishing a monetary union. This paper examines the effects of European Economic and Monetary Union on inflows of foreign direct investments to the Eurozone by using panel data from 16 Group of 20 countries for the period 1999-2012. We found that real GDP, GDP growth rate and exchange rates of 16 Group20 countries affect inflows of real foreign direct investment positively while exchange rate volatility, inflation volatility and distance affects inflows of real foreign direct investment negatively. So European Economic and Monetary Union contribute to the inflows of foreign direct investment by reducing the exchange rate volatility, inflation volatility and distance and supporting economic growth.
The relationship between economic freedom and economic growth has always been discussed and inves... more The relationship between economic freedom and economic growth has always been discussed and investigated in the economic literature. This study investigates both the relationship among economic freedom, inflation rate, economic growth and, separately, economic freedom indices, inflation rate and economic growth in 23 uppermiddle income countries during 1995-2010. Pooled Least Squares and Two-way Panel Least Squares methods are used to estimate two different models. According to the results of these tests, economic freedom has a significantly positive effect, while inflation rate has a significantly negative effect on economic growth. When the components of economic freedom are examined separately, it was found that the coefficient of some components of economic freedom, such as government size index and business freedom index, were not significant variables. All other components of economic freedom are significantly related to economic growth.
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Papers by Feyza Arıca