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Computer Science > Multiagent Systems

arXiv:2307.12186 (cs)
[Submitted on 22 Jul 2023 (v1), last revised 11 Sep 2023 (this version, v2)]

Title:Inferring epidemic dynamics using Gaussian process emulation of agent-based simulations

Authors:Abdulrahman A. Ahmed, M. Amin Rahimian, Mark S. Roberts
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Abstract:Computational models help decision makers understand epidemic dynamics to optimize public health interventions. Agent-based simulation of disease spread in synthetic populations allows us to compare and contrast different effects across identical populations or to investigate the effect of interventions keeping every other factor constant between ``digital twins''. FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics) is an agent-based modeling system with a geo-spatial perspective using a synthetic population that is constructed based on the U.S. census data. In this paper, we show how Gaussian process regression can be used on FRED-synthesized data to infer the differing spatial dispersion of the epidemic dynamics for two disease conditions that start from the same initial conditions and spread among identical populations. Our results showcase the utility of agent-based simulation frameworks such as FRED for inferring differences between conditions where controlling for all confounding factors for such comparisons is next to impossible without synthetic data.
Comments: To be presented in Winter Simulation Conference 2023, repository link: this https URL
Subjects: Multiagent Systems (cs.MA); Social and Information Networks (cs.SI); Applications (stat.AP)
Cite as: arXiv:2307.12186 [cs.MA]
  (or arXiv:2307.12186v2 [cs.MA] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2307.12186

Submission history

From: Abdulrahman Ahmed [view email]
[v1] Sat, 22 Jul 2023 23:59:55 UTC (1,654 KB)
[v2] Mon, 11 Sep 2023 05:06:35 UTC (1,738 KB)
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