Department of Statistics

The paper addresses the problem of evaluation of the effectiveness of Active Labour Policies in the province of Bologna, a manufacturing district in Northern Italy, during the period 2004/2006. Using surviving analysis through Kaplan Meier filter and a new ...

After the publication of the results of the Advertising Research Foundation's Copy Research Validity Project, ad liking has been extensively used as copy test predictor of campaign's performance. Less favourable findings have been recently presented on the basis of its delayed effects. This paper addresses the question of carryover effects of ad liking on the recall, jointly modelling the patterns of recall, ad pressure and ad liking, by means of the specification of a vector autoregressive model with GRPs acting as exogenous variable. The approach is innovative since literature has mainly investigated until now only the simultaneous relationship between advertising, recall and liking. The analysis is carried out for the markets of small automobiles, deodorants and shampoos. Main empirical findings for the analysed categories highlight that: 1) carryover effects of ad liking on the recall measures may be detected 2 but not systematically, and 2) the ad liking role of ad likeability on memorial responses varies among product categories. Moreover 3) a further finding shows that, whereas positive influences are thoroughly retrievable (in the small car category), ad likeability influences more advertising than brand awareness and more total than unaided awareness.

This paper examines whether sales promotions effectiveness depends upon the consumer's brand loyalty and her buying behaviour and whether consumer's behavioural characteristics in term of purchase frequency and level affect the response to promotional activities and moderate the effect of brand loyalty during the consumer choice process. Different specifications for the utility function, exploiting information on selling price, promotional activities such as displays usage, ad features in the store, 3x2 and discount, and differently brand loyalty measures have been estimated into a discrete choice framework, that is into the rational brand choice paradigm, paying attention to their effects on individuals' probabilities to choose the specific brand during each purchase occasion. The application is run on a ACNielsen dataset of Italian households consumer panel, observed to buy at least two yoghurt packages during a year, matched to store panel data with respect to quantities, prices and promotions.

This study examines the nature of competition between the two leading brands of a national small size market by estimating short-and long-term competitive reactions via a Structural VAR (SVAR) model. The primary findings indicate how the two competitors react, which marketing instruments are used, and when competitive reactions affect cross-and own-sales. The empirical results suggest that competitive reactions are either simple or complex, whether through advertising or through promotions, but the reactions exhibit dynamic patterns that are quite symmetric across brands. The results further suggest that the follower weakly reacts to a leader's assault and that the nature of competition in this market deviates from symmetric behaviours toward a dominant-fringe pattern in which the leader firm is retaliatory, and the follower is accommodating or passive.

A cura di: responsabile Giorgio Tassinari (Dipartimento Scienze Statistiche) Furio Camillo (Dipartimento Scienze Statistiche) Marzia Freo (Dipartimento Scienze Statistiche) Andrea Guizzardi (Dipartimento Scienze Statistiche) Claudio Natali (Ce.Trans. srl) si ringraziano per la collaborazione prestata Patrizia Paganini, Marica Viscomi, Elena Martignani, Fabrizia Paltrinieri "Servizio di supporto alla programmazione, progettazione, monitoraggio e valutazione di azione e servizi" Rif. P.A. n° 2008-652 (progetto 1 -CE.TRANS. S.R.L. e progetto 2 -T.D. GROUP S.P.A.) DETERMINA DIRIGENZIALE CON IMPEGNO DI SPESA N° 34 DEL 18/12/2008 -ESECUTIVA DAL 23/12/2008 CONTRATTO REPERTORIO N° 17736 DEL 12/02/2009 e e allargamento ex art 57, comma 5, lettera b) del d.lgs. n. 163/2006 DETERMINA DIRIGENZIALE CON IMPEGNO DI SPESA N. 12 DEL 11/