Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau in November or December 2024.[1][2] Incumbent president Umaro Sissoco Embaló is eligible for a second term.[3]
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Background
editIn 2019 Umaro Sissoco Embaló won the presidential election runoff vote against Domingos Simões Pereira, 54% to 46%. Simões Pereira disputed the results.[4] Although neither the supreme court of Guinea-Bissau nor the parliament had given its approval for the official swearing-in ceremony, Sissoco Embaló had organized an alternative swearing-in ceremony in a hotel in Bissau to announce himself as legal president of Guinea-Bissau.[5] Several politicians in Guinea-Bissau, including prime minister Aristides Gomes, accused Sissoco Embaló of arranging a coup d'état, although outgoing president Vaz stepped down to allow Embaló to take power.[6]
Incumbent president Embaló dissolved the opposition controlled parliament on 4 December 2023, saying an "attempted coup" had prevented him from returning home from COP28 climate conference.[7] This was the second early dissolution by Embaló, with his first dissolution of parliament being in 2022, leading to an opposition victory in the 2023 parliamentary election.[8] In response to the dissolution, parliamentary speaker Domingos Simões Pereira accused the president of carrying out a "constitutional coup d'état."[9] Incumbent president Embaló would go on to fire the prime minister Geraldo Martins, who was appointed by the PAIGC-led National Assembly and instead appoint Rui Duarte de Barros by presidential decree.[10]
Sissoco Embaló, who is eligible to run for a second term, has given contradictory signs about his intentions. In September 2024, after a meeting of the Council of Ministers, he announced that he decided not to run after a conversation with his wife[11], but in November 2024 he stated his intention to remain as president "for many years", beyond 2030.[12]
Electoral system
editThe President is elected using the two-round system.[13] Article 33 of Guinea-Bissau's Electoral Law prohibits the publishing of any opinion polls.[14]
Issues
editVarious opposition parties have criticized incumbent president Embaló, accusing him of authoritarianism and wanting to establish a dictatorship.[10] Beyond the outcome of the elections, the broader narrative in Guinea-Bissau in 2024 will revolve around the imperative of establishing and maintaining momentum for a stable system of governance. Central to this narrative will be the efforts to fortify institutional frameworks that serve as guardrails against the abuse of power.[15]
According to observers, the conditions for elections in 2024 have not been met due to organisational challenges. One major issue is the expiration of the terms of the commission members responsible for overseeing elections. Typically, these members would be appointed by parliament, however since the parliament has been dissolved, there is no entity in place to facilitate the appointment of new commission members.[10]
References
edit- ^ Studies, the Africa Center for Strategic. "Guinea-Bissau: December 2024 Elections". Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Retrieved 2024-03-26.
- ^ "2024 Guinea Bissau Presidential Election". National Democratic Institute. 5 October 2023. Retrieved 2024-03-26.
- ^ "Guinea-Bissau", The World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency, 21 February 2024, retrieved 2024-03-26
- ^ "Guinea Bissau ex-PM Embalo declared winner of runoff". Africanews. 2020-02-05. Retrieved 2021-02-11.
- ^ "Umaro Sissoco Embalo swears himself in as Guinea-Bissau president". BusinessLIVE. Retrieved 2021-02-11.
- ^ "Em meio a contencioso judicial, Sissoco toma "posse simbólica" como Presidente da Guiné-Bissau". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 11 February 2021.
- ^ "Guinea-Bissau's president dissolves parliament after 'attempted coup'". France 24. 2023-12-04. Retrieved 2024-03-26.
- ^ "Guinea-Bissau's president issues a decree dissolving the opposition-controlled parliament". AP News. 2023-12-04. Retrieved 2024-03-26.
- ^ "Guinea-Bissau: President dissolves parliament after coup bid". Deutsche Welle. 4 December 2023. Retrieved 2024-03-26.
- ^ a b c "Guinea-Bissau opposition fears 'dictatorship'". Deutsche Welle. 22 March 2024. Retrieved 2024-03-26.
- ^ "Sissoco Embaló diz que não se recandidata". VOA Português. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
- ^ "Umaro Sissoco Embalo diz que vai ficar na presidência "por muitos anos". RFI. Retrieved 7 November 2024.
- ^ Electoral system IPU
- ^ "Holding of Elections Brings Guinea Bissau Closer to Constitutional Normalcy" (PDF). European Union Election Observation Mission. Hotel Azalai, Bissau. 14 April 2014.
- ^ Cook, Joseph Siegle and Candace. "Africa's 2024 Elections: Challenges and Opportunities to Regain Democratic Momentum". Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Retrieved 2024-03-26.