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2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary

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The 2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary took place on February 27 in the U.S. state of South Carolina, marking the Democratic Party's fourth nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary
← 2008 February 27, 2016 (2016-02-27) 2020 →
 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 39 14
Popular vote 272,379 96,498
Percentage 73.44% 26.02%
County results
Clinton:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%

Clinton won the South Carolina Democratic primary by a landslide margin of more than 47%, receiving a larger percentage of the African American vote than Obama, the first black President, did in 2008.[1]

With the Republican Party having already held its South Carolina primary a week earlier on February 20, the Democratic primary in South Carolina was the only presidential primary on that day.

Debates and forums

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November 2015 forum in Rock Hill

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See also: Democratic Party presidential debates, 2016

Rachel Maddow was selected to moderate the First in the South Candidates Forum with Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley, which was held at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on November 6, co-sponsored by the Democratic Parties of 13 southern states.[2] The forum was not in debate format; instead, each candidate was interviewed individually and sequentially.[3] Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb were also invited, but their campaigns never responded to the invitations,[4] and both have since withdrawn from the race. A Public Policy Poll of South Carolina Democratic voters conducted from November 7–8, after the forum, discovered that 67% of viewers thought Clinton won the forum, 16% thought Sanders won, and 6% thought O'Malley won, with 11% unsure.[5]

January 2016 debate in Charleston, South Carolina

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Main article: Fourth Democratic Party presidential debate, January 2016 in Charleston, South Carolina

On January 17, 2016, the Democratic Party held a fourth debate at the Gaillard Center in Charleston, South Carolina. Hosted by Lester Holt and Andrea Mitchell, the debate aired on NBC News and was streamed on YouTube. It was also sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus. It was notable as being the final debate before the start of precinct caucuses and primary voting. Participants were Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley. It was the final debate appearance of O'Malley, who suspended his campaign on February 1.

Both before and after the debate, commentators said the debate was focused on Sanders and his voting record on gun control and slights against President Obama, among other issues. During the debate, O'Malley interrupted to take 30 seconds to talk about "homeland security and preparedness".[6] Also during the debate, Clinton and Sanders had some back-and-forth exchanges to define themselves on Wall Street, foreign policy, and gun control.[6]

Opinion polling

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See also: Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016

Delegate count: 53 Pledged, 6 Unpledged

Winner:   Hillary Clinton
Primary date: 27 February 2016

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Official Primary results[7] February 27, 2016 Hillary Clinton
73.4% 		Bernie Sanders
26.0% 		Others
0.6%
Clemson[8]

Margin of error: 3.0%
Sample size: 650

February 20–25, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64% 		Bernie Sanders
14% 		Others / Undecided
22%
Emerson College[9]

Margin of error: 6.0%
Sample size: 266

February 22–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60% 		Bernie Sanders
37% 		Others / Undecided
3%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[10]

Margin of error: 4.8%
Sample size: 425

February 15–17, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60% 		Bernie Sanders
32% 		Other
8%
Bloomberg Politics[11]

Margin of error: 4.9%
Sample size: 403

February 13–17,
2016 		Hillary Clinton
53% 		Bernie Sanders
31% 		Not sure
16%
ARG[12]

Margin of error: 5%
Sample size: 400

February 14–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61% 		Bernie Sanders
31% 		Someone else 1% No opinion 7%
Public Policy Polling[13]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 525

February 14–15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55% 		Bernie Sanders
34% 		Undecided 12%
CNN/ORC[14]

Margin of error: 6%
Sample size: 289

February 10–15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56% 		Bernie Sanders
38% 		Someone else 3% No opinion 4%
ARG[15]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

February 12–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
65% 		Bernie Sanders
27% 		Other 1%, Undecided 7%
YouGov/CBS News[16]

Margin of error: ± 8.7%
Sample size: 404

February 10–12, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59% 		Bernie Sanders
40% 		No Preference 1%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[17]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 446

January 17–23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64% 		Bernie Sanders
27% 		Martin O'Malley
2% 		Undecided 7%
YouGov/CBS News[18]

Margin of error: ± 9.4%
Sample size: 388

January 17–21, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60% 		Bernie Sanders
38% 		Martin O'Malley
0% 		Undecided 2%
SC New Democrats[19]

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 583

January 12–15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47% 		Bernie Sanders
28% 		Martin O'Malley
2% 		Undecided 22%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
YouGov/CBS News[20]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 420

December 13–17, 2015 Hillary Clinton
67% 		Bernie Sanders
31% 		Martin O'Malley
2% 		No Preference 0%
Fox News[21]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 364

December 5–8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
65% 		Bernie Sanders
21% 		Martin O'Malley
3% 		Other 1%, None of the Above 7%, DK 3%
YouGov/CBS News[22]

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 420

November 15–19, 2015 Hillary Clinton
72% 		Bernie Sanders
25% 		Martin O'Malley
2% 		Undecided 1%
Public Policy Polling[23]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

November 7–8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
72% 		Bernie Sanders
18% 		Martin O'Malley
5% 		Unsure 5%
Monmouth University[24]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

November 5–8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
69% 		Bernie Sanders
21% 		Martin O'Malley
1% 		Other 1% No Preference 8%
Winthrop University[25]

Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 832

October 24 – November 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton
71% 		Bernie Sanders
15% 		Martin O'Malley
2% 		Refused 2% Undecided 9% Wouldn't Vote 1%
YouGov/CBS News[26]

Margin of error: ± 8.2%
Sample size: 427

October 15–22, 2015 Hillary Clinton
68% 		Bernie Sanders
25% 		Martin O'Malley
1% 		Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Lawrence Lessig 0%, No preference 4%
Clemson Palmetto[27]

Margin of error: 4.0%
Sample size: 600

October 13–23, 2015 Hillary Clinton
43% 		Bernie Sanders
6% 		Martin O'Malley
1% 		Undecided 50%
CNN/ORC[28]

Margin of error: 5.5%
Sample size: 301

October 3–10, 2015 Hillary Clinton
49% 		Joe Biden
24% 		Bernie Sanders
18% 		Martin O'Malley 3%, Someone else 1%, None/No one 1%, No opinion 4%
Gravis Marketing[29]

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: ?

September 25–27, 2015 Hillary Clinton
50% 		Joe Biden
19% 		Bernie Sanders
13% 		Lincoln Chafee 1%, Jim Webb <1%, Martin O'Malley <1%, Unsure 17%
YouGov/CBS News[30]

Margin of error: ± 6.8%
Sample size: 528

Sep. 3–10, 2015 Hillary Clinton
46% 		Bernie Sanders
23% 		Joe Biden
22% 		No preference 8%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Martin O'Malley 0%
Public Policy Polling[31]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

Sep. 3–6, 2015 Hillary Clinton
54% 		Joe Biden
24% 		Bernie Sanders
9% 		Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb 2%; Lincoln Chafee 1%
Gravis Marketing[32]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 209

July 29–30, 2015 Hillary Clinton
78% 		Bernie Sanders
8% 		Elizabeth Warren
6% 		Joe Biden 6%, Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1%
Morning Consult[33]

Margin of error: ?
Sample size: 309

May 31 – June 8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
56% 		Joe Biden
15% 		Bernie Sanders
10% 		Martin O'Malley 3%, Jim Webb 2%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Someone else 2% Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling[34]

Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 252

February 12–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton
59% 		Joe Biden
18% 		Elizabeth Warren
10% 		Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other/Undecided 8%
NBC News/Marist[35]

Margin of error: ± 5.2%
Sample size: 352

February 3–10, 2015 Hillary Clinton
65% 		Joe Biden
20% 		Bernie Sanders
3% 		Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Undecided 8%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Clemson University[36]

Margin of error: ±6%
Sample size: 400

May 26 – June 2, 2014 Hillary Clinton
50% 		Joe Biden
12% 		Andrew Cuomo
2% 		Martin O'Malley 1%, Deval Patrick 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Undecided/Don't know 35%


Results

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South Carolina Democratic primary, February 27, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 272,379 73.44% 39 5 44
Bernie Sanders 96,498 26.02% 14 0 14
Willie Wilson 1,314 0.35%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 713 0.19%
Uncommitted 0 1 1
Total votes 370,904 100% 53 6 59
Sources: [37][38]

Results by county

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Clinton won every county.[39]

County Clinton % Sanders % Others Total votes cast Turnout as % of total registered electors Margin as % of votes cast in primary
Abbeville 1,508 81.91% 312 16.95% 21 1,841 12.45% 64.96%
Aiken 6,889 70.17% 2,877 29.31% 51 9,883 9.41% 40.87%
Allendale 1,022 90.84% 95 8.44% 8 1,137 19.43% 82.40%
Anderson 5,576 66.79% 2,712 32.48% 61 8,401 7.54% 34.30%
Bamberg 1,710 89.20% 197 10.28% 10 1,928 20.08% 78.93%
Barnwell 1,561 87.45% 209 11.71% 15 1,800 13.50% 75.74%
Beaufort 9,970 73.30% 3,575 26.28% 56 13,664 13.21% 47.02%
Berkeley 9,485 71.96% 3,592 27.25% 104 13,264 12.04% 44.71%
Calhoun 1,536 86.05% 241 13.50% 8 1,809 17.31% 72.55%
Charleston 26,625 65.97% 13,527 33.47% 228 40,508 15.34% 32.50%
Cherokee 1,877 77.95% 514 21.35% 17 2,427 7.91% 56.60%
Chester 1,962 79.63% 492 19.97% 10 2,477 12.23% 59.66%
Chesterfield 2,209 82.80% 446 16.72% 13 2,696 10.71% 66.08%
Clarendon 3,571 90.87% 337 8.58% 22 3,976 17.17% 82.29%
Colleton 2,939 81.86% 584 16.40% 37 3,592 14.89% 66.15%
Darlington 4,990 81.86% 1,081 17.73% 25 6,148 14.49% 64.12%
Dillon 1,659 84.00% 302 15.29% 14 1,993 10.33% 68.71%
Dorchester 6,934 70.21% 2,885 29.21% 57 9,929 10.54% 41.00%
Edgefield 1,474 81.80% 301 16.70% 27 1,822 11.46% 65.09%
Fairfield 3,265 87.46% 440 11.76% 28 3,754 24.35% 75.68%
Florence 9,433 78.00% 2,594 21.45% 67 12,196 14.53% 55.55%
Georgetown 4,941 77.82% 1,350 21.26% 58 6,402 15.69% 56.56%
Greenville 19,966 63.95% 11,118 35.61% 138 31,398 10.56% 28.34%
Greenwood 3,623 77.46% 987 21.10% 67 4,710 11.82% 56.36%
Hampton 1,933 87.98% 241 10.97% 23 2,202 17.27% 77.01%
Horry 11,316 67.25% 5,457 32.43% 54 16,916 8.95% 34.82%
Jasper 2,195 85.08% 355 13.76% 30 2,594 15.48% 71.32%
Kershaw 3,761 77.10% 1,093 22.41% 24 4,914 12.32% 54.69%
Lancaster 3,346 72.96% 1,221 26.62% 19 4,615 8.98% 46.34%
Laurens 2,978 78.53% 801 21.12% 13 3,831 10.25% 57.41%
Lee 2,209 87.66% 288 11.43% 23 2,548 21.40% 76.23%
Lexington 8,847 60.93% 5,611 38.65% 61 14,572 8.69% 22.29%
Marion 3,361 85.37% 552 14.05% 23 3,978 18.42% 71.32%
Marlboro 2,137 88.97% 253 10.53% 12 2,412 13.60% 78.43%
McCormick 973 85.05% 162 14.16% 9 1,161 17.18% 70.89%
Newberry 2,121 80.92% 471 17.97% 29 2,641 11.77% 62.95%
Oconee 1,960 59.61% 1,304 39.66% 24 3,305 6.93% 19.95%
Orangeburg 11,872 88.64% 1,473 11.00% 49 13,515 23.74% 77.64%
Pickens 2,503 55.43% 1,995 44.18% 18 4,528 6.90% 11.25%
Richland 39,332 75.75% 12,354 23.79% 238 52,136 21.73% 51.96%
Saluda 1,023 83.72% 192 15.71% 7 1,237 10.97% 68.00%
Spartanburg 10,674 70.27% 4,467 29.41% 49 1,237 9.17% 40.86%
Sumter 9,830 86.61% 1,443 12.71% 77 15,239 17.42% 73.89%
Union 1,690 83.37% 332 16.38% 5 11,432 11.99% 67.00%
Williamsburg 4,613 88.52% 557 10.69% 41 5,272 23.90% 77.84%
York 8,890 63.40% 5,127 36.20% 57 14,216 9.26% 27.20%
Total 272,379 73.44% 96,498 26.02% 2,027 373,063 12.60% 47.42%

Delegates[40]

Analysis

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As South Carolina's majority-black Democratic electorate had dealt a severe death-blow to Clinton's 2008 presidential effort against Barack Obama, it gave her campaign new life in 2016. Clinton won the primary in a 47-point routing thanks to ardent support from African American voters. According to exit polls, Clinton won the black vote 86–14, which comprised 61% of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina; she won among black women 89-11 who comprised 37% of the electorate. Clinton's near-unanimous support from black voters was fueled by their interest in a continuation of President Obama's policies,[41] and by black women who wanted to see a woman elected.[42]

Clinton won every county statewide. She won in upcountry 66–34, Piedmont 74–25, Central South Carolina, including the region which is majority African American 78–22, Pee dee/Waccamaw 83–17, and lowcountry 70–30.[43] She also swept the major cities of Charleston, Columbia, Greenville, and Rock Hill.

References

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  1. ^ "Black Voters Boost Clinton in South Carolina". ABC News. February 28, 2016. Retrieved May 20, 2016.
  2. ^ "MSNBC's Rachel Maddow to moderate 2016 Democratic forum at Winthrop". The State. October 7, 2015.
  3. ^ "MSNBC's Rachel Maddow will bring Southern focus to forum". Charlotte Observer. November 4, 2015.
  4. ^ "S.C. Democrats to host three presidential candidates in Rock Hill". Greenvilleonline.com. October 7, 2015. Retrieved January 17, 2016.
  5. ^ "Three Republican candidates speak at anti-gay pastor's rally". MSNBC. Retrieved November 23, 2015.
  6. ^ a b Fix, Team (January 17, 2016). "The 4th Democratic debate transcript, annotated: Who said what and what it meant". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved January 18, 2016.
  7. ^ Official Primary Results
  8. ^ "Clemson University Palmetto Poll Democratic primary summary". Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  9. ^ "EMERSON POLL: CLINTON LEADS SANDERS BY A WIDE MARGIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA, WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM AFRICAN AMERICANS" (PDF). Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  10. ^ "Donald Trump's Lead Slashed in South Carolina: Poll". Retrieved February 19, 2016.
  11. ^ "Clinton Strong in South Carolina But Warning Signs Ahead, Bloomberg Poll Shows". Retrieved February 18, 2016.
  12. ^ "South Carolina primary: ARG Poll". Retrieved February 17, 2016.
  13. ^ http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article60547281.html
  14. ^ "South Carolina primary: CNN/ORC poll full results". Retrieved February 16, 2016.
  15. ^ http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23748
  16. ^ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF). CBS News. February 14, 2016. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  17. ^ "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll January 2016 South Carolina Questionnaire" (PDF). Retrieved February 5, 2016.
  18. ^ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF). CBS News. January 24, 2016. Retrieved January 24, 2016.
  19. ^ SC New Democrats
  20. ^ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF).
  21. ^ Fox News
  22. ^ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker Iowa" (PDF).
  23. ^ "Trump Still Leads But Declining in SC; Clinton Dominant" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. November 10, 2015. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  24. ^ "South Carolina: Clinton with Big Lead" (PDF). Monmouth University Poll. November 10, 2015. Retrieved January 22, 2015.
  25. ^ "Winthrop University: Winthrop Poll – Current Findings". winthrop.edu.
  26. ^ "PDF file" (PDF). Retrieved October 12, 2015.
  27. ^ "SC Poll". Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  28. ^ "CNN SC poll". Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  29. ^ "The Buzz". Retrieved October 1, 2015.
  30. ^ Will Jordan. "Sanders up big in New Hampshire and Iowa; Carson trails Trump". YouGov.
  31. ^ "The Buzz". Retrieved September 9, 2015.
  32. ^ "SC polling" (PDF). Retrieved August 4, 2015.
  33. ^ "Morning Consult SC" (PDF). morningconsult.com. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
  34. ^ Public Policy Polling
  35. ^ NBC News/Marist
  36. ^ Clemson University
  37. ^ The Green Papers
  38. ^ South Carolina State Election Commission
  39. ^ "South Carolina Election Results 2016: President Live Map by County, Real-Time Voting Updates - POLITICO".
  40. ^ The South Carolina Democratic Party - State Election Results Archived October 26, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  41. ^ Chozick, Amy; Healy, Patrick (February 27, 2016). "Hillary Clinton Wins South Carolina Primary". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 18, 2016.
  42. ^ Hannah-jones, Nikole (February 26, 2016). "For Black Women in South Carolina, It's Clinton's Turn". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 18, 2016.
  43. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved October 18, 2016.
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