Jump to content

2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia: Difference between revisions

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Browse history interactively
← Previous editNext edit →
Content deleted Content added
VisualWikitext
→Democratic primary: fix ref errors, always check your work for cite errors
No edit summary
Line 52: Line 52:
* Glenn Elliot, Mayor of [[Wheeling, West Virginia]] (2016-present)<ref>{{Cite web |last=Virginian |first=Hoppy Kercheval {{!}} Times West |date=2023-12-05 |title=The political left’s uphill battle in West Virginia
* Glenn Elliot, Mayor of [[Wheeling, West Virginia]] (2016-present)<ref>{{Cite web |last=Virginian |first=Hoppy Kercheval {{!}} Times West |date=2023-12-05 |title=The political left’s uphill battle in West Virginia
|url=https://wvmetronews.com/2023/12/05/the-political-lefts-uphill-battle-in-west-virginia/ |access-date=2023-12-06 |website=[[MetroNews]] |language=en}}</ref>
|url=https://wvmetronews.com/2023/12/05/the-political-lefts-uphill-battle-in-west-virginia/ |access-date=2023-12-06 |website=[[MetroNews]] |language=en}}</ref>
* Ben Salango, [[Kanawha County]] commissioner and nominee for governor in [[2020 West Virginia gubernatorial election|2020]]<ref>{{cite web |last1=McElhinny |first1=Brad |title=Salango says he won't repeat bid for governor; Huntington Mayor Williams says he's closer to launch |url=https://wvmetronews.com/2023/07/05/salango-says-he-wont-repeat-bid-for-governor-huntington-mayor-williams-says-hes-closer-to-launch/ |publisher=[[West Virginia MetroNews]] |date=5 July 2023 |access-date=5 July 2023}}</ref>


====Declined====
====Declined====
*[[Joe Manchin]], incumbent U.S. Senator (2010–present){{r|retire}}
*[[Joe Manchin]], incumbent U.S. Senator (2010–present){{r|retire}}
* [[Stephen T. Williams|Steve Williams]], mayor of [[Huntington, West Virginia|Huntington]] (2013–present) and former [[West Virginia House of Delegates|state delegate]] (1986–1994)<ref>{{Cite web |last=Staff |first=WSAZ News |date=2023-09-04 |title=Huntington Mayor says he plans to file to run for Governor of W.Va. |url=https://www.wsaz.com/2023/09/04/huntington-mayor-says-he-plans-file-run-governor-wva/ |access-date=2023-09-04 |website=WSAZ |language=en}}''([[2024 West Virginia gubernatorial election|running for governor]])''</ref>


===Endorsements===
===Endorsements===

Revision as of 16:39, 6 December 2023

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Joe Manchin
Democratic



Elections in West Virginia
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2000
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Attorney General elections
Secretary of State elections
Auditor elections
Treasurer elections
Senate elections
House of Delegates elections
Local government
Charleston (mayoral elections)
2022
Huntington (municipal elections)
Wheeling (municipal elections)

The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Primary elections will take place on May 14, 2024.[1]

Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin (first elected in 2010) initially filed paperwork for the 2024 election, but announced in November 2023 that he will not seek a third full term in office.[2]

Background

West Virginia was mainly a Democratic stronghold from the New Deal through the 1990s, but like much of rural Appalachia, the state has rapidly swung towards the Republican Party in the years since.[3] It is now staunchly Republican and considered a deeply red state, giving Donald Trump a 38.93 percentage point margin of victory in the 2020 presidential election (winning every county), his second-strongest performance in the nation.[4] However, Manchin had continued to see electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to the state.[5]

The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle.[6] Notable Republicans who have announced candidacies for the seat include U.S. Representative Alex Mooney[7] and Governor Jim Justice.[8]

Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018 (even amidst a national Democratic wave), and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win over the seat even if the incumbent sought reelection.[9] After Jim Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily in labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin.[10] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as a near-certain flip to GOP control. The last time a Republican won this Class 1 Senate seat was in 1956.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Zachary Shrewsbury
State legislators
Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Source: Federal Election Commission[18]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Chris Rose, coal miner[20] (running for state senate)[21]

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Justice
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Alex Mooney
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jim
Justice 		Zane
Lawhorn 		Bryan
McKinney 		Alex
Mooney 		Other/
Undecided
American Pulse Research
& Polling (R)[A] 		November 13–14, 2023 414 (LV) ± 4.8% 46% 1% 2% 20% 22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates[B] September 11–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4/0% 62% – – 23% 15%
Research America August 16–26, 2023 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 58% – – 26% 16%
Orion Strategies[C] June 17–20, 2023 651 (LV) ± 6.0% 56% – – 19% 25%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023 796 (RV) ± 3.7% 53% – – 12% 35%
co/efficient April 24–25, 2023 753 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% – – 17% 38%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jim
Justice 		Alex
Mooney 		Patrick
Morrisey 		Undecided
National Public Affairs (R) March 14-17, 2023 360 (LV) ± 5.2% 43% 21% 10% 24%
Tarrance Group (R) February 5–7, 2023 609 (LV)[b] ± 4.1% 53% 16% 21% 8%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jim Justice (R) $1,547,997 $380,640 $1,167,356
Alex Mooney (R) $2,324,446 $746,431 $1,578,014
Source: Federal Election Commission[18]

Third-party and independent candidates

Independents

Declared

Declined

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Solid R (flip) November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[48] Solid R (flip) November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Safe R (flip) November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[10] Safe R (flip) May 4, 2023
CNalysis[50] Solid R (flip) November 21, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Jim
Justice (R) 		Undecided
Emerson College September 24–26, 2023 539 (RV) ± 4.2% 28% 41% 31%
The Terrance Group (R)[D] September 24–26, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 43%[c] 49% 8%
Research America August 16–26, 2023 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 38% 51% 11%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023 957 (RV) ± 3.7% 32% 54% 14%[d]
co/efficient (R) April 24–25, 2023 974 (LV) ± 3.0% 29% 43% 28%
Tarrance Group (R)[D] February 5–7, 2023 609 (LRV) ± 4.1% 42% 52% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022 762 (RV) ± 3.5% 32% 47% 21%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 37% 22%
Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Alex
Mooney (R) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College Oct 1-4, 2023 539 (RV) ± 4.2% 37% 31% 31%
Research America August 16–26, 2023 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 45% 41% 14%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023 957 (RV) ± 3.7% 40% 41% 1% 18%
co/efficient (R) April 24–25, 2023 974 (LV) ± 3.0% 36% 30% – 34%
Tarrance Group (R)[D] February 5–7, 2023 609 (LRV) ± 4.1% 55% 40% – 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022 762 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 45% 12% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 28% 16% 7%
Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Manchin (D) 		Patrick
Morrisey (R) 		Other Undecided
Tarrance Group (R)[D] February 5–7, 2023 609 (LRV) ± 4.1% 52% 42% – 6%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022 762 (RV) ± 3.5% 36% 50% 9% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 29% 7% 16%

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
  3. ^ This poll asked about a scenario in which Manchin ran as an independent.
  4. ^ Includes Some other candidate with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll commissioned by WMOV.
  2. ^ Poll commissioned by Jim Justice's campaign
  3. ^ Poll commissioned by the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce
  4. ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Republican candidates

References

  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Archived from the original on August 17, 2023. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. ^ a b c Weaver, Al (November 9, 2023). "Manchin won't seek reelection in West Virginia". The Hill. Archived from the original on November 9, 2023. Retrieved November 9, 2023.
  3. ^ Thomas, Zoe (November 2, 2016). "Coal country West Virginia feels forgotten by politics". BBC News. Archived from the original on June 16, 2023. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  4. ^ "Deep in Virginia's craggy coal country, they saw Trump as their only hope". Washington Post. Archived from the original on March 16, 2021. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  5. ^ Edmondson, Catie (October 8, 2018). "Joe Manchin's Yes on Kavanaugh Finds Sympathy in West Virginia (Published 2018)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on June 16, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2021.
  6. ^ Everett, Burgess (August 2, 2022). "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". POLITICO. Archived from the original on August 6, 2022. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
  7. ^ a b "West Virginia Congressman Alex Mooney says he will run for Manchin's Senate seat". WOWK 13 News. November 15, 2022. Archived from the original on November 15, 2022. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
  8. ^ a b Staff, WDTV News (April 27, 2023). "Gov. Justice announces run for U.S. Senate". www.wdtv.com. Archived from the original on April 27, 2023. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  9. ^ Kondik, Kyle (January 24, 2023). "Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Archived from the original on January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  10. ^ a b Cunningham, Eric (May 4, 2023). "Jim Justice's Announcement Moves West Virginia's Senate Race to Safe Republican". Elections Daily. Archived from the original on May 21, 2023. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
  11. ^ Virginian, Esteban Fernandez | Times West (November 18, 2023). "Democracy dinner kicks off election season for Marion County Democrats". Times West Virginian. Retrieved November 19, 2023.
  12. ^ Schott, Bryan (July 11, 2023). "Republican Brad Wilson says he's 'exploring' a run for U.S. Senate next year. He's been an official candidate for nearly three months". The Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on September 21, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  13. ^ Virginian, Hoppy Kercheval | Times West (December 5, 2023). "The political left's uphill battle in West Virginia". MetroNews. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  14. ^ McElhinny, Brad (July 5, 2023). "Salango says he won't repeat bid for governor; Huntington Mayor Williams says he's closer to launch". West Virginia MetroNews. Retrieved July 5, 2023.
  15. ^ Staff, WSAZ News (September 4, 2023). "Huntington Mayor says he plans to file to run for Governor of W.Va". WSAZ. Retrieved September 4, 2023.(running for governor)
  16. ^ "Instagram". Archived from the original on November 8, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2023.
  17. ^ a b Klein, Howie (October 22, 2023). "Can A Real Democrat Defeat Joe Manchin AND Jim Justice?". Blue America. Archived from the original on October 22, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  18. ^ a b "2024 Election United States Senate - West Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original on August 11, 2023. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  19. ^ a b Adams, Steven (November 10, 2023). "Reaction Pours In to Manchin's Impending Senate Retirement". The Intelligencer and Wheeling News-Register. Retrieved November 27, 2023.
  20. ^ "GOP candidates, voters rally in Weirton". Wierton Daily Times. October 17, 2022. Archived from the original on October 17, 2022. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
  21. ^ "West Virginia | Chris Rose For WV Senate". Chris Rose WV Senate. Archived from the original on December 22, 2022. Retrieved August 12, 2023.
  22. ^ Mutnick, Ally (October 12, 2021). "3 members, 2 seats: West Virginia Republicans gird for redistricting showdown". Politico.[dead link]
  23. ^ Everett, Burgess; Beavers, Olivia (December 5, 2022). "Red-state rodeos to set GOP's 2024 Senate chances". Politico. Archived from the original on December 5, 2022. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
  24. ^ Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Archived from the original on July 21, 2023. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  25. ^ "AG Morrisey Announces Run For Governor". April 4, 2023. Archived from the original on April 4, 2023. Retrieved April 4, 2023.
  26. ^ Huynh, Anjali (October 18, 2023). "Trump Endorses Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia Senate Race". The New York Times. Archived from the original on October 19, 2023. Retrieved October 19, 2023.
  27. ^ a b "Republican Gov. Jim Justice jumps into West Virginia 2024 Senate race. What did Mitt Romney say?". Deseret News. April 28, 2023. Archived from the original on May 9, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  28. ^ Tsirkin, Julie; Bowman, Bridget (April 27, 2023). "Gov. Jim Justice announces West Virginia Senate run, kicking off heated GOP primary". NBC News. Archived from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
  29. ^ "Justice Begins Campaign For U.S. Senate". West Virginia Public Broadcasting. April 27, 2023. Archived from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
  30. ^ "U.S. Senator Tom Cotton Endorses Governor Jim Justice for U.S. Senate". October 21, 2023. Archived from the original on November 10, 2023. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
  31. ^ "Moore Capito endorses Justice, and Justice doesn't yet say if he'll return that". September 13, 2023. Archived from the original on November 10, 2023. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
  32. ^ a b Adams, Steven Allen (April 28, 2023). "Justice all in on US senate race". The Inter-Mountain. Archived from the original on April 28, 2023. Retrieved April 28, 2023.
  33. ^ "WV Coal Association Endorses Slate of Pro-Coal Candidates for 2024 Election". www.wvcoal.com. Archived from the original on September 2, 2023. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  34. ^ Elkin, Elizabeth (April 21, 2023). "Cruz backs Alex Mooney in West Virginia Senate race as GOP works to unseat Joe Manchin". Fox News. Archived from the original on April 23, 2023. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
  35. ^ a b c Adams, Steven (July 8, 2023). "U.S. Sen. Rand Paul rallies for Mooney in Huntington". Weirton Daily Times. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  36. ^ Campbell, Chase (March 8, 2023). "Political rally with congressmen Alex Mooney and Jim Jordan to take place". www.wtap.com. Archived from the original on May 7, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  37. ^ a b c d e McElhinny, Brad (April 19, 2023). "As Senate race heats up, Justice says he's not bothered by Mooney's early endorsements from legislators". Archived from the original on May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  38. ^ a b c d Adkins, Roger (April 23, 2023). "Mooney picking up support in US Senate race; Justice says he's unconcerned". The Herald-Dispatch. Archived from the original on May 1, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  39. ^ "Alex Mooney Endorsed By Citizens United Political Victory Fund In West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Primary Election". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. October 30, 2013. Archived from the original on April 14, 2023. Retrieved April 14, 2023.
  40. ^ "Club for Growth moves to stop Jim Justice for Senate coronation". Politico. April 4, 2023. Archived from the original on April 4, 2023. Retrieved April 4, 2023.
  41. ^ Bowman, Jessico (August 28, 2023). "The Republican Liberty Caucus endorses Alex Mooney for U.S. Senate in West Virginia". Republican Liberty Caucus. Archived from the original on August 29, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
  42. ^ "Mooney outraises Manchin in U.S. Senate campaign reports". Archived from the original on April 20, 2023. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  43. ^ Telegraph, CHARLES OWENS Bluefield Daily (September 26, 2023). "West Virginia Republican Assembly endorses Mooney for U.S. Senate". Bluefield Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on September 30, 2023. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  44. ^ "Veterans For Trump Endorsement of Rep Alex Mooney for West Virginia Senate 2024". www.pr.com. May 27, 2023. Archived from the original on October 22, 2023. Retrieved October 15, 2023.
  45. ^ {{cite news |work=Ballotpedia |access-date=December 6, 2023 |url=https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2024
  46. ^ "Democratic Senator Joe Manchin says he's been thinking seriously about becoming an independent". Associated Press. August 11, 2023. Archived from the original on September 26, 2023. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  47. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on November 30, 2018. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  48. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  49. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Archived from the original on January 26, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  50. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
Official campaign websites
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia&oldid=1188624042"