2016 Republican Party presidential primaries: Difference between revisions
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|[[File:MarcoRubioColorEnhanced112thCongress.jpg|100px]]<br /><big>'''[[Marco Rubio]]'''</big>|| style="background:#C60E3B;" | ||'''[[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]] from [[Florida]]'''<br>(2011–''present'') |
|[[File:MarcoRubioColorEnhanced112thCongress.jpg|100px]]<br /><big>'''[[Marco Rubio]]'''</big>|| style="background:#C60E3B;" | ||'''[[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]] from [[Florida]]'''<br>(2011–''present'') |
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|[[File:Marcorubio.svg|185x185px]]<br /><small>([[Marco Rubio presidential campaign, 2016|Campaign]] • [[Political positions of Marco Rubio|Positions]])</small> |
|[[File:Marcorubio.svg|185x185px]]<br /><small>([[Marco Rubio presidential campaign, 2016|Campaign]] • [[Political positions of Marco Rubio|Positions]])</small> |
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||9 || 239,143<br/><small>(19.78%)</small> || None (as yet) |
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Revision as of 10:42, 23 February 2016
Template:Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016
2016 U.S. presidential election | |
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The 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses are a series of ongoing electoral contests taking place within the 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories, occurring between February 1 and June 7, 2016. Sanctioned by the Republican Party, this series of elections are designed to select the 2,472 delegates to the Republican National Convention, which will select the Republican Party's nominee for President of the United States.
In the lead-up to the primary season, there was considerable speculation as to who the candidates would be to contest the maze of caucuses and primaries, to become the Republican nominee to fill the Presidency which will be vacated by Barack Obama in January 2017 following his two terms. Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the party's nominee in 2012, hinted at a possible third bid for the presidency at the onset of 2015, but by January 30 announced he would not seek the nomination.
On March 23, 2015, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas formally announced his candidacy at Liberty University, and in the following months, sixteen more candidates (bringing the total to 17) entered the race: Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, neurosurgeon Ben Carson of Maryland, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, businesswoman Carly Fiorina of Virginia, Governor Jim Gilmore of Virginia, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Governor John Kasich of Ohio, Governor George Pataki of New York, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, Governor Rick Perry of Texas, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, businessman Donald Trump of New York, and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin.
Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, candidates Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham, and Pataki withdrew due to low polling numbers. While leading many polls entering the Iowa caucuses, Trump came in second behind Senator Cruz. Afterwards, candidates Huckabee, Paul and Santorum withdrew due to poor performance at the ballot box. Following the New Hampshire primary, which was a sizable victory for Trump, candidates Christie, Fiorina and Gilmore withdrew. After the conclusion of the South Carolina primary, Governor Bush withdrew from the race following a second win for Trump.
As of February 22, 2016, five major candidates remain active in the Republican primary: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Ben Carson.
Candidates and results
The following seventeen candidates have been listed in major independent nationwide polls and have filed as candidates with the Federal Election Commission. See the main article for other notable candidates. There are a total of 2,472 delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention.
Candidate | Most recent position | Campaign | Projected delegates[1] |
Popular vote[2] | States won (with most delegates) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump |
Chairman of The Trump Organization (1971–present) |
(Campaign • Positions) |
68 | 385,686 (31.90%) |
NH, SC | ||||
Ted Cruz |
U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present) |
(Campaign • Positions) |
11 | 249,646 (20.65%) |
IA | ||||
Marco Rubio |
U.S. Senator from Florida (2011–present) |
(Campaign • Positions) |
9 | 239,143 (19.78%) |
None (as yet) | ||||
John Kasich |
69th Governor of Ohio (2011–present) |
(Campaign • Positions) |
5 | 104,590 (8.65%) |
None (as yet) | ||||
Ben Carson |
Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery for Johns Hopkins Hospital (1984–2013) |
(Campaign • Positions) |
3 | 77,230 (6.39%) |
None (as yet) | ||||
Jeb Bush |
43rd Governor of Florida (1999-2007) |
(Campaign • Positions) Withdrew: February 20, 2016 |
4 | 94,413 (7.81%) |
None | ||||
Jim Gilmore |
68th Governor of Virginia (1998-2002) |
(Campaign) Withdrew: February 12, 2016 |
0 | 145 (0.01%) |
None | ||||
Carly Fiorina |
CEO of Hewlett-Packard (1999-2005) |
(Campaign • Positions) Withdrew: February 10, 2016 |
1 | 15,191 (1.26%) |
None | ||||
Chris Christie |
55th Governor of New Jersey (2010-present) |
(Campaign • Positions) Withdrew: February 10, 2016 |
0 | 24,353 (2.01%) |
None | ||||
Rand Paul |
United States Senator from Kentucky (2011-present) |
(Campaign • Positions) Withdrew: February 3, 2016 |
1 | 10,381 (0.86%) |
None | ||||
Rick Santorum |
United States Senator from Pennsylvania (1995-2007) |
(Campaign) Withdrew: February 3, 2016 (Endorsed Marco Rubio) |
0 | 1,934 (0.16%) |
None | ||||
Mike Huckabee |
44th Governor of Arkansas (1996-2007) |
(Campaign • Positions) Withdrew: February 1, 2016 |
1 | 3,560 (0.29%) |
None | ||||
Withdrawn candidates shaded in this color |
Withdrew before the primaries
Results by county
Timeline of the race
Background
2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney lost the election to incumbent President Barack Obama. Fearing a long, drawn-out primary season could hurt the 2016 nominee like it may have hurt Romney, the RNC drafted plans to condense the season, with the 2016 Republican National Convention to be held July 18–21,[3] the earliest since Republicans nominated Thomas Dewey in June 1948.[4][5] By comparison, the 2012 Republican National Convention was held August 27–30.
With Ohio Governor John Kasich's announcement on July 21, the field reached sixteen candidates,[6] and thus officially became the largest presidential field in the history of the Republican Party, surpassing the 1948 primaries. Lastly, with former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore's announcement on July 30,[7] the field reached seventeen candidates, and thus became the largest presidential field in American history, surpassing the sixteen candidates in the Democratic Party presidential primaries of both 1972 and 1976.[8][9] The seventeen major candidates and the lack of a clear front-runner formed the most open presidential primary contest in American history. As of February 21, 2016, five major candidates are left in the race.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who was widely seen as a possible frontrunner for the nomination due to his relatively moderate stances, record as governor of a crucial swing state, name recognition, and access to high-paying donors, was the first candidate to form a political action committee (PAC) and exploratory committee, in mid-December 2014.[10] Many other candidates followed suit, and the first candidate to declare his candidacy was Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who is popular among grassroots conservatives due to his association with the Tea Party movement.[11][12]
The 2016 candidates originate in several Republican Party tendencies, with the grassroots conservatives represented by Cruz and Ben Carson, the Christian right represented by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and the moderates or establishment, represented by Bush and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, among others. In addition, some candidates are seen as appealing to both conservatives and moderates; these candidates include Kasich, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Two notable candidates from the previous primaries in 2012 returned for a second consecutive run in 2016: Santorum and former Texas Governor Rick Perry. Lastly, there are candidates with minimal to no political experience, including Carson, businessman Donald Trump, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who tout their lack of political experience as a positive while others criticize it as making them unqualified for the office.[13][14][15]
The field has been noted for its diversity, and has even been called the most diverse presidential field in American history. This included two Latinos (Cruz and Rubio), a woman (Fiorina), an Indian-American (Jindal), and an African-American (Carson); Cruz, Jindal, Rubio, Santorum, and Trump are the sons of immigrants.[16][17][18][19]
Overview
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Active campaigns | |
Campaigns ended during the primaries | |
Campaigns ended before the primaries |
Early states primaries starts | |
Super Tuesday | |
Convention 2016 | |
Election Day | |
Inauguration Day |
2012–14: Fluctuating polls
After Mitt Romney's failed 2012 campaign, the potential 2016 field was left without a clear future nominee, similarly to 2008. Different speculations began rising from all sides of the right-leaning political spectrum as to who would make the best possible nominee: One faction of candidates included young freshmen senators, some with alliances to the Tea Party movement, which was represented by Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Rubio in particular was the focus of attention immediately following 2012; in most national polls from late 2012 to mid-2013, Rubio was leading due to being young, articulate, having a broad appeal among conservatives and moderates, and also for his Latino heritage and continued efforts on immigration reform, which many viewed as possible tools to draw Hispanic voters to the GOP.[20][21][22]
However, another narrative for the nomination, similarly to what drove Romney's campaign, was that the nominee needed to be a governor in a traditionally Democratic or swing state, with a proven record that would stand as proof that such a governor could be president as well. The possible candidates that fit this criteria included former Florida governor Jeb Bush, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, Ohio governor John Kasich, former New York governor George Pataki, and New Jersey governor Chris Christie. Christie in particular had been rising in popularity due to his loud and blunt manner of speaking at public events, which was championed by some as challenging conventional political rhetoric.[23][24][25] With his record as governor of New Jersey, a heavily Democratic state, factored in, Christie overtook Rubio in the polls from mid-2013 up until early 2014, when the "Bridgegate" scandal was first revealed and started to damage Christie's reputation and poll standing.[26] Although Christie was later cleared of personal responsibility in the subsequent investigation, he never regained frontrunner status.[27]
After Christie's fall in the polls, the polls fluctuated from January 2014 to November 2014; candidates who often performed well included Rand Paul, Wisconsin congressman and 2012 vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, and former candidates such as former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and then-governor of Texas Rick Perry, further reflecting the uncertainty of the upcoming race for the nomination.[28][29]
2014–15: Jeb Bush leading the polls
In April 2014, Robert Costa and Philip Rucker of The Washington Post reported that the period of networking and relationship-building that they dubbed the "credentials caucus" had begun, with prospective candidates "quietly study[ing] up on issues and cultivat[ing] ties to pundits and luminaries from previous administrations."[30]
Throughout all of the previous polling, Jeb Bush had often polled in the low double digits or higher, always considered a prominent candidate due to his high fundraising ability, record as governor of Florida (a crucial swing state), and being viewed as electable in the general election, while criticisms included his moderate stances and establishment ties, as well as his family name possibly being the target of Democratic attacks evoking the memory of his older brother George's presidency.[31][32] By November 2014, Bush had finally solidified his lead in the polls, but often rivaled other candidates in a manner that some analysts claimed was similar to Mitt Romney's status prior to the 2012 primaries.[33][34] Around this time there were talks of the possibility of former nominee Mitt Romney making a third run for the presidency. During this period from November 2014 until late January 2015, the speculation fueled Romney's rise in many national polls as well, challenging Bush.[35] Although Romney admitted he was entertaining the idea after initially declining, he ultimately reaffirmed his decision not to run on January 30.[36]
However, by the end of February, less than a month after Romney ruled himself out, another challenger rose to match Bush in the polls: Wisconsin governor Scott Walker. Walker often touted his record as governor in a traditionally Democratic state, particularly noting his victory in a recall election in 2012 (the first governor in American history to do so), combined with his reelection in 2014. Walker and Bush balanced out in the polls from late February until about mid-June.[37] Walker's challenge to Bush also allowed other candidates to briefly resurge in some polls from late April up until mid-June, including former top performers Rubio, Paul, and Huckabee, in addition to several newcomers to the top tier of polling, including Ted Cruz and former neurosurgeon Ben Carson.[28][29]
Mid-2015: Donald Trump and the rise of the outsiders
Shortly after businessman and reality TV host Donald Trump announced his candidacy on June 16, many pundits quickly began noting his uniquely outspoken nature, blunt language, and often directly contradicting traditional political rhetoric. This style was seen as resonating strongly with potential Republican primary voters, and Trump began to rise in the polls.[38] After a few weeks of briefly matching Bush, Trump surged into first place in all major national polls by mid-July, quickly extending his lead into the largest margins in the primary field at that point, from the high 20s to the 30s, and even briefly reaching 40% in some polls.[39][40]
A survey conducted by The Economist/YouGov released July 9, 2015, became significant as the first major nationwide poll to show Trump as the 2016 Republican presidential front-runner.[41] Following that poll, from July to November 2015, Trump was consistently at the top of most opinion polls for the GOP nomination. Trump also polled well in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, often leading or coming in second in those states.
With the surge of Trump, a man who had never held political office, the general focus began to shift over to other non-politician candidates, known as "outsiders," and the other two outsiders in the field quickly rose in the polls as well in the wake of the first two debates: Ben Carson rose into second place after a well-received performance in the first debate, while former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina rose into the top three after her performance in the second debate.[42][43][44] The rising popularity of non-politician outsiders has shocked many political analysts, and fueled a new conversation about how those with no political experience or prior runs for office could appeal more to potential primary voters than lifelong career politicians, and what it means for the future of the Republican party and American politics in general.[45][46][47]
In mid-September, the first two major candidates dropped out of the race. Former Texas governor Rick Perry suspended his campaign on September 11, citing his failure to qualify for the primetime debates, his subsequent failure to raise a significant amount of money, and his indictment as reasons for dropping out.[48][49] Only ten days later, Scott Walker suspended his campaign on September 21, mainly due to his own poll numbers dropping after two lackluster debate performances.[50]
End of 2015: The field stabilizes
By September, most polling averages indicated that the field was finally stabilizing in terms of public opinion, and six candidates in particular were gaining traction and pulling away from the rest of the field by considerable margins. Polling averages indicated the top six as Trump, Carson, Rubio, Fiorina, Bush, and Cruz. Trump and Carson were consistently first and second, respectively, while Fiorina was initially in third before being surpassed by Rubio, and Bush and Cruz remained in fifth and sixth, respectively.[51][52][53] The other candidates who had been in the top ten of polling (Christie, Huckabee, Paul, and Kasich) all leveled out at roughly 3% or less, while the five remaining candidates outside the top ten (Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, and Jim Gilmore) were consistently polling below 1%.
By the time of the third debate in late October, Bush and Fiorina's numbers were also beginning to fade, while Cruz was on the rise and began coming in fourth by most poll averages. The third debate only solidified these numbers – Bush and Fiorina's numbers and support continued to fall as both were considered lackluster, while Cruz was widely held as the winner and rose even further.[54][55] Throughout this period, Trump and Carson alone had pulled well ahead of the rest of the field, and with Trump often registering in the low 30s and high 20s, and Carson in the low 20s, the two of them combined often made up well over 50% of the electorate in a vast majority of national polls. Later in October and in early November, Carson began to match even with Trump by most polling averages, rising into the mid 20s and often finishing either just behind or just ahead of Trump.[28][56][57]
By October, with the polls reflecting a field that seemed to be stabilizing, most commentators began to claim that the field had already established who the final four candidates – those who were in the race for the long-term, and had the best chance of actually becoming the nominee – would be.[58] The four were listed as being Trump, Carson, Rubio, and Cruz – Trump and Carson for their appeal as outsiders, as well as their opposite personalities – with Trump's blunt nature and tough foreign policy stances, against Carson's soft-spoken nature and personal favorability; Rubio for his appeal to Hispanics and his moderate stances on such issues as immigration reform, combined with strong debate performances and significant donor backing; and Cruz for his appeal to Tea Party and Christian Conservative voters, which was seen as possibly having a strong impact in the southern states.[58][59][60][61]
On November 17, then-Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal became the third major Republican candidate to drop out, roughly two months after Walker in late September.[62]
The November 2015 Paris attacks were widely seen as having a significant impact on the 2016 presidential race, particularly on the Republican side.[63] The attacks were seen as boosting the campaigns of those with tough stances on immigration like Trump and Cruz, as well as the foreign policy hawks like Rubio.[64][65] Possibly as a result, Carson – who had previously been perceived as uninformed and relatively inarticulate on foreign policy – began to suffer in the polls, with Trump once again solidifying a double-digit lead over everyone else, while Rubio and Cruz began to steadily rise as Carson's numbers declined.[66]
By December, Cruz had overtaken Carson, solidified a base of support among Christian Conservatives, and become second-place with an average national polling of 18%.[67] The non-interventionist Paul also continued to fail to make traction at this juncture, while Carson fell down to about 10%, roughly even with Rubio. On December 15, there was another presidential debate, which saw no major changes in the perceptions of the candidates.
On December 21, which was the deadline to withdraw from the ballot in his home state of South Carolina, Graham suspended his campaign. Eight days later, on December 29, Pataki, who was struggling to poll above the margin of error, suspended his campaign.[68]
January 2016: The road to the early primaries
2016 dawned with the several-month-long truce between Trump and Cruz being broken.[69] Cruz accused Trump of not being a consistent conservative or an ethical businessman, while Trump questioned the Canadian-born Cruz's constitutional eligibility to be President while noting Cruz's past calls for immigration reform.[70][71] This occurred as Trump and Cruz were vying for supremacy at the top of Iowa polls, in addition to both being the top two candidates in all national polls, ahead of the rest of the field by significant margins.[72][73] In the closing weeks before Iowa, Trump and Cruz ran dueling television commercials, each attacking the other's record.[74] Meanwhile, there was conflict between "establishment" candidates Rubio, Christie, Bush and Kasich, largely due to a media-reinforced belief that only a single establishment candidate could remain in the race past the early primaries. The establishment candidates staked their bids on strong showings in New Hampshire, and both Christie and Kasich saw upticks in their polling in the weeks before the primary.[75][76] Both the Trump-Cruz conflict and the squabbling between establishment candidates was evident at the Republican debate on January 14. The Republican debate of January 28, devoid of Trump due to conflicts with moderator Megyn Kelly, was the candidates' last shot at honing their message before the Iowa caucuses. Immigration and foreign policy featured prominently in this debate, and many candidates used the opportunity to criticize the second-place Cruz, who was also being heavily criticized by prominent Republican leaders in the weeks before Iowa.[77][78]
February 2016: Early states
Candidate | Trump | Cruz | Rubio | Kasich | Carson | Bush | Gilmore | Christie | Fiorina | Paul | Huckabee | Santorum | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Delegates won | 68 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
Popular vote | 385,686 (31.9%) |
249,646 (20.6%) |
239,143 (19.8%) |
104,590 (8.7%) |
77,230 (6.4%) |
94,413 (7.8%) |
145 (0.01%) |
24,353 (2.0%) |
15,191 (1.3%) |
10,381 (0.9%) |
3,560 (0.3%) |
1,934 (0.2%) | |
States won | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Feb. 1 | Iowa | 24% | 28% | 23% | 2% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
Feb. 9 | New Hampshire | 35% | 12% | 11% | 16% | 2% | 11% | 0% | 7% | 4% | — | ||
Feb. 20 | South Carolina | 33% | 22% | 23% | 8% | 7% | 8% | — | |||||
Feb. 23 | Nevada | — |
In the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, Ted Cruz won a narrow victory over Trump and Rubio.[79] Following poor performances in Iowa, three candidates suspended their campaigns: Huckabee (the winner of the caucuses in 2008), Santorum (the winner of the caucuses in 2012), and Paul, narrowing the field of candidates to 9.[80][81][82] Despite coming third in the Iowa caucuses, the media quickly painted Rubio as the candidate most likely to pick up the establishment mantle and ride it to the nomination following a strong performance in New Hampshire, much as John McCain and Mitt Romney had done in 2008 and 2012. Rubio used this narrative to pick up a number of endorsements in the days following the Iowa caucuses. However, in the New Hampshire debate of February 6, Rubio repeated a talking point four times almost verbatim during an exchange with Chris Christie, which led to sharp criticism of his performance in the aftermath.[83]
In the New Hampshire primary, Trump scored a decisive victory over the rest of the field, winning the primary with 35% of the vote. Kasich, who had held over 100 town halls in the state, finished second in a surprise to many in the media. Cruz coming in 3rd in the contest was also a shock to many, while Rubio slipped to 5th, behind Trump, Kasich, Cruz, and Jeb Bush, whose campaign appeared to be revitalized following several months of apparent stagnation. After coming in 7th place in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Fiorina suspended her campaign on February 10.[84] Later that same day, Christie, whose campaign was staked almost entirely on getting a strong showing in New Hampshire, suspended his campaign after coming in sixth in New Hampshire, thus failing to reach the minimum 10% vote threshold required to be allocated delegates from the state, and also failing to qualify for the next debate on CBS.[85][86] Later that week, Jim Gilmore, who had failed to gain traction, win delegates, or be invited to most of the debates, suspended his campaign, narrowing the field to six.[87]
The third contest was in South Carolina. Trump again won by double digits, garnering 33% of the vote with a 10% margin over the runner-up, Rubio, who edged Cruz to second place by 0.2%. Since Trump carried the vote both statewide and in each congressional district, his result netted him all 50 delegates available in the state.[88][89] Following disappointing finishes in the first three contests despite outspending his competitors, Jeb Bush suspended his campaign.[90]
Campaign finance
This is an overview of the money used in the campaign as it is reported to Federal Election Committee and released on January 31. Outside groups are Independent expenditure only committees also called PACs and SuperPACs. Several such groups normally support each candidate but the numbers in the tablet are a total of all of them. This means that a group of committees can be shown as technical insolvent (shown in red) even though it is not the case of all of them. The Campaign Committees debt are shown in red if the campaign is technical insolvent. The source of all the numbers is Center for Responsive Politics.[91] Jim Gilmore's information is not currently available.
Candidate | Campaign Committee (as of December 31) | Outside Groups (as of January 31) | Total Spent | Suspended Campaign | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Money Spent | Cash on Hand | Debt | Money Spent | Cash on Hand | |||||||||||||||||
Donald Trump | $12,440,892 | $6,964,325 | $12,620,297# | $1,733,144 | $161,365 | $14,174,036 | Active | ||||||||||||||
Ted Cruz | $28,352,063 | $18,734,794 | $862,620 | $10,677,649 | $31,778,188 | $39,029,712 | Active | ||||||||||||||
Marco Rubio | $22,649,953 | $10,398,593 | $0 | $17,528,134 | $14,323,588 | $40,178,086 | Active | ||||||||||||||
John Kasich | $5,045,064 | $2,537,301 | $0 | $8,080,028 | $-4,624,165 | $13,125,093 | Active | ||||||||||||||
Ben Carson | $47,468,963 | $6,567,647 | $0 | $13,907,158 | $-174,609 | $61,376,121 | Active | ||||||||||||||
Jeb Bush | $24,332,242 | $7,589,858 | $155,989 | $59,754,823 | $58,607,172 | $84,087,065 | February 20 | ||||||||||||||
Chris Christie | $6,033,171 | $1,126,158 | $61,918 | $15,662,075 | $3,836,683 | $21,695,246 | February 10 | ||||||||||||||
Carly Fiorina | $6,864,749 | $4,484,307 | $0 | $8,394,669 | $4,620,982 | $15,259,418 | February 10 | ||||||||||||||
Rick Santorum | $1,265,912 | $56,153 | $617,802 | $1,032,269 | $-393,119 | $2,298,181 | February 3 | ||||||||||||||
Rand Paul | $10,138,694 | $1,270,072 | $248,368 | $7,350,952 | $3,186,990 | $17,489,646 | February 3 | ||||||||||||||
Mike Huckabee | $3,816,902 | $133,244 | $49,471 | $3,435,479 | $2,278,648 | $7,252,380 | February 1 | ||||||||||||||
George Pataki | $524,850 | $19,332 | $20,000# | $1,510,759 | $36,915 | $2,035,609 | December 29 | ||||||||||||||
Lindsey Graham | $3,110,901 | $1,651,309 | $0 | $4,263,809 | $124,495 | $7,374,710 | December 21 | ||||||||||||||
Bobby Jindal | $1,442,464 | $0 | $0 | $4,517,855 | $-648 | $5,960,318 | November 17 | ||||||||||||||
Scott Walker | $7,820,291 | $153,460 | $1,207,082 | $24,393,632 | $42,686 | $32,213,923 | September 21 | ||||||||||||||
Rick Perry | $1,766,819 | $2,403 | $0 | $15,356,117 | $-125,050 | $17,122,936 | September 11 | ||||||||||||||
Active campaigns highlighted in this color |
Notes
- #This is mainly a personal loan from the candidate to the campaign as part of the candidate's self-financing.
Process and schedule
The Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses are indirect elections in which voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention. These delegates in turn directly elect the Republican Party's presidential nominee. Depending on each state's law and each state's party rules, when voters cast ballots for a candidate, they may be voting to directly award delegates bound to vote for a particular candidate at the state or national convention (binding primary or caucus), or they may simply be expressing an opinion that the state party is not bound to follow in selecting delegates to the national convention (non-binding primary or caucus).
Under the party's delegate selection rules, the number of pledged delegates allocated to each of the 50 U.S. states is 10, plus three delegates for each congressional district. For the District of Columbia and the U.S. territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands, fixed numbers of pledged delegates are allocated. Each state and U.S territory will be awarded bonus pledged delegates based on whether it has a Republican governor, it has Republican majorities in one or all chambers of its state legislature, and whether it has Republican majorities in its delegation to the U.S. Congress, among other factors. A state or territory may then either use a winner-take-all system, wherein the candidate that wins a plurality of votes wins all of that state's allocated pledged delegates; or use a proportional representation system, where the delegates are awarded proportionally to the election results. Many of the states using a proportional system require candidates to meet a certain threshold before receiving delegates; for example, a candidate receiving less than 20 percent of the vote in Texas would receive no delegates.[92][93]
Unpledged delegates will include three top party officials from each state and territory.[92]
The Republican National Committee has imposed strict new rules for states wishing to hold early contests in 2016.[94] Under these rules, no state will be permitted to hold a primary or caucus in January; and only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada are entitled to February contests. States with early-March primaries or caucuses must award their delegates proportionally. Any state that violates these rules will have their delegation to the 2016 convention severely cut: states with more than 30 delegates will be deprived of all but nine, plus RNC members from that state; states with fewer than 30 will be reduced to six, plus RNC members.[94]
As of February 2016[update], the tentative schedule for 2016 and results is as follows:[95][96][97][98]
Schedule of primaries and caucuses
Date[99][100] | State/ territory |
Election Type[101] | Open or Closed[95][a] |
Winner | Pledged/ Unpledged/ Total Delegates[102] |
Delegate breakdown |
Allocation method |
Inclusion threshold | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
February 1 | Iowa | Caucuses | Closed | Template:Cruz16 | Cruz | 30 / 0 / 30 | 12 district 15 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional (all based on statewide vote) |
none |
February 9 | New Hampshire | Primary | Mixed | Template:Trump16 | Trump | 23 / 0 / 23 | 6 district 14 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional (all based on statewide vote) |
10% |
February 20 | South Carolina | Primary | Open | Template:Trump16 | Trump | 50 / 0 / 50 | 21 district 26 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all (by district and statewide) |
N/A |
February 23 | Nevada | Caucuses | Closed | 30 / 0 / 30 | 12 district 15 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional (all based on statewide vote) |
none | ||
March 1 Super Tuesday |
Alabama | Primary | Open | 50 / 0 / 50 | 21 district 26 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional with 50% winner-take-all threshold
(by district and statewide) |
20% | ||
Alaska | Caucuses | Closed | 28 / 0 / 28 | 3 district 22 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional (all based on statewide vote) |
13% | |||
Arkansas | Primary | Open | 40 / 0 / 40 | 12 district 25 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional
(by district and statewide)
At-large delegates: All candidates who win at least 15% of the statewide vote are allocated one delegate. If one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, he or she is awarded the remaining delegates. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, the remaining delegates are allocated proportionally. |
At-large: 15%
District: none | |||
Georgia | Primary | Open | 76 / 0 / 76 | 42 district 31 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional with 50% winner-take-all threshold
(by district and statewide) If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in a district, the highest vote-getter wins two of the district's delegates, and one delegate is awarded to the second-place candidate. |
At-large: 20%
District: none | |||
Massachusetts | Primary | Mixed | 42 / 0 / 42 | 27 district 12 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional (all based on statewide vote) |
5% | |||
Minnesota | Caucuses | Open | 38 / 0 / 38 | 24 district 11 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional with 85% winner-take-all threshold
(by district and statewide) |
10% | |||
Oklahoma | Primary | Closed | 43 / 0 / 43 | 15 district 25 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional with 50% winner-take-all threshold
(by district and statewide) If only one candidate in a district wins more than 15% of the vote, he or she is awarded all of the district's delegates. If two candidates win more than 15% in a district, the first-place finisher is awarded two of the district's three delegates and the second-place finisher is awarded one. If three or more candidates receive more than 15% of the vote in a district, each of the top three candidates is awarded one delegate a piece. If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in a district, he or she is awarded all of the district's delegates. |
15% | |||
Tennessee | Primary | Open | 58 / 0 / 58 | 27 district 28 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional with 66% winner-take-all threshold
(by district and statewide) If the winning candidate in a district receives between 20% and 66% of the vote in the district, he or she is awarded two of the district's three delegates. The second-place finisher is awarded one delegate (if the second-place finisher wins less than 20% of the vote, then the first-place finisher is awarded all of the district's delegates). If no candidate wins more than 20% of the vote, the top three finishers each are awarded one delegate. |
20% | |||
Texas | Primary | Open | 155 / 0 / 155 | 108 district 44 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional with 50% winner-take-all threshold
(by district and statewide) |
20% | |||
Vermont | Primary | Open | 16 / 0 / 16 | 3 district 10 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional with 50% winner-take-all threshold (all based on statewide vote) |
20% | |||
Virginia | Primary | Open | 49 / 0 / 49 | 33 district 13 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional (all based on statewide vote) |
none | |||
Wyoming | Caucuses | Closed | 26 / 3 / 29 | 3 district 23 at-large 3 RNC |
No preference poll. Delegates are bound to a candidate for whom they declare themselves at state or district conventions. | N/A | |||
March 5 | Kansas | Caucuses | Closed | 40 / 0 / 40 | 12 district 25 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional
(by district and statewide) |
10% | ||
Kentucky | Caucuses | Closed | 45 / 0 / 45 | 18 district 24 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional (all based on statewide vote) |
5% | |||
Louisiana | Primary | Closed | 47 / 0 / 47 | 18 district 26 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional
(by district and statewide) |
At-large: 20%
District: none | |||
Maine | Caucuses | Closed | 23 / 0 / 23 | 6 district 14 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional with 50% winner-take-all threshold (all based on statewide vote) |
10% | |||
March 6 | Puerto Rico | Primary | Open | 23 / 0 / 23 | 3 RNC 20 at-large |
Proportional with 50% winner-take-all threshold
(by district and statewide) |
20% | ||
March 8 | Hawaii | Caucuses | Closed | 19 / 0 / 19 | 6 district 10 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional
(by district and statewide) |
none | ||
Idaho | Primary | Closed | 32 / 0 / 32 | 6 district 23 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional with 50% winner-take-all threshold
(by district and statewide) |
20% | |||
Michigan | Primary | Open | 59 / 0 / 59 | 42 district 14 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional with 50% winner-take-all threshold (all based on statewide vote) |
15% | |||
Mississippi | Primary | Open | 40 / 0 / 40 | 12 district 25 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional
(by district and statewide) District delegates have a 50% winner-take-all threshold. Otherwise, the candidate who wins the greatest number of votes in a district is awarded two of that district's delegates, and the second-place finisher receives one delegate. |
At-large: 15%
District: none | |||
March 12 | Guam | Territorial convention | Closed | 0 / 9 / 9 | 3 RNC 6 at-large |
No preference poll. Delegates are bound to a candidate for whom they declare themselves at state or district conventions. | N/A | ||
District of Columbia | Convention | Closed | 19 / 0 / 19 | 3 RNC 16 at-large |
Proportional
(by district and statewide) |
15% | |||
March 15 | Florida | Primary | Closed | 99 / 0 / 99 | 81 district 15 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all (all based on statewide vote) |
N/A | ||
Illinois | Primary | Open | 69 / 0 / 69 | 54 district 12 at-large 3 RNC |
At-large delegates: Winner-take-all
District delegates: Directly elected at the primary; district delegates are bound to a candidate for whom they declare themselves. |
N/A | |||
Missouri | Primary | Open | 52 / 0 / 52 | 24 district 25 at-large 3 RNC |
The winner candidate in each district is awarded five delegates (three district delegates and two at-large delegates). The remaining at-large delegates are awarded to the statewide winner. If a candidate receives more than 50% of the statewide vote, he or she is awarded all of the state's at-large and district delegates. | none | |||
North Carolina | Primary | Mixed | 72 / 0 / 72 | 39 district 30 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional (all based on statewide vote) |
none | |||
Marianas | Caucuses | Closed | 9 / 0 / 9 | 3 RNC 6 at-large |
Winner-take-all
(by district and statewide) |
N/A | |||
Ohio | Primary | Mixed | 66 / 0 / 66 | 48 district 15 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all (all based on statewide vote) |
N/A | |||
March 19 | US Virgin Islands | Caucuses | Closed | 9 / 0 / 9 | 3 RNC 6 at-large |
Winner-take-all
(by district and statewide) |
N/A | ||
March 22 | American Samoa | Territorial convention | Open | 0 / 9 / 9 | 3 RNC 6 at-large |
No preference poll. Delegates are bound to a candidate for whom they declare themselves at state or district conventions. | N/A | ||
Arizona | Primary | Closed | 58 / 0 / 58 | 27 district 28 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all (all based on statewide vote) |
N/A | |||
Utah | Caucuses | Closed | 40 / 0 / 40 | 12 district 25 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional with 50% winner-take-all threshold (all based on statewide vote) |
15% | |||
April 1 | North Dakota | Caucuses | Closed | 0 / 28 / 28 | 3 district 22 at-large 3 RNC |
No preference poll. Delegates are bound to a candidate for whom they declare themselves at state or district conventions. | N/A | ||
April 5 | Wisconsin | Primary | Open | 42 / 0 / 42 | 24 district 15 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all
(by district and statewide) |
N/A | ||
April 8 | Colorado | Caucuses | Closed | 37 / 0 / 37 | 21 district 13 at-large 3 RNC |
No preference poll. Delegates are bound to a candidate for whom they declare themselves at state or district conventions. | N/A | ||
April 19 | New York | Primary | Closed | 95 / 0 / 95 | 81 district 11 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional with 50% winner-take-all threshold
If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in a district, the highest vote-getter in a district receives two of the district's three delegates, and the second-place finisher receives one delegate. |
20% | ||
April 26 | Connecticut | Primary | Closed | 28 / 0 / 28 | 15 district 10 at-large 3 RNC |
At-large delegates: Proportional
District delegates: Winner-take-all At-large and district delegates are allocated on a winner-take-all basis if a candidate wins more than 50% of the statewide vote. |
At-large: 20%
District: N/A | ||
Delaware | Primary | Closed | 16 / 0 / 16 | 3 district 10 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all
(by district and statewide) |
N/A | |||
Maryland | Primary | Closed | 38 / 0 / 38 | 24 district 11 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all
(by district and statewide) |
N/A | |||
Pennsylvania | Primary | Closed | 17 / 54 / 71 | 54 district 14 at-large 3 RNC |
At-large delegates: Winner-take-all
District delegates: Directly elected as unbound delegates |
N/A | |||
Rhode Island | Primary | Mixed | 19 / 0 / 19 | 6 district 10 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional
District delegates have a 67% winner-take-all threshold. Otherwise, if three candidates each win more than 10% of the vote in a district, each is awarded one of the district's three delegates. |
10% | |||
May 3 | Indiana | Primary | Open | 57 / 0 / 57 | 27 district 27 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all
(by district and statewide) |
N/A | ||
May 10 | Nebraska | Primary | Closed | 36 / 0 / 36 | 9 district 24 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all (all based on statewide vote) |
N/A | ||
West Virginia | Primary | Mixed | 34 / 0 / 34 | 9 district 22 at-large 3 RNC |
Direct election | N/A | |||
May 17 | Oregon | Primary | Closed | 28 / 0 / 28 | 15 district 10 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional (all based on statewide vote) |
none | ||
May 24 | Washington | Primary | Closed | 44 / 0 / 44 | 30 district 11 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional
District delegates: 50% winner-take-all threshold Also, if only one candidate wins more than 20% of the vote in a district, he or she is awarded all of the district's delegates. |
20% | ||
June 7 | California | Primary | Closed | 172 / 0 / 172 | 159 district 10 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all
(all by district and statewide) |
N/A | ||
Montana | Primary | Open | 27 / 0 / 27 | 3 district 21 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all (all based on statewide vote) |
N/A | |||
New Jersey | Primary | Mixed | 51 / 0 / 51 | 36 district 12 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all (all based on statewide vote) |
N/A | |||
New Mexico | Primary | Closed | 24 / 0 / 24 | 9 district 12 at-large 3 RNC |
Proportional (all based on statewide vote) |
15% | |||
South Dakota | Primary | Closed | 29 / 0 / 29 | 3 district 23 at-large 3 RNC |
Winner-take-all (all based on statewide vote) |
N/A | |||
Concluded contests highlighted in this color |
See also
- Republican Party presidential primaries
- Republican Party presidential candidates, 2016
- Republican Party presidential debates, 2016
- 2016 Republican National Convention
- Results of the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016
- Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2016 presidential primaries
- Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016
- Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016
Notes
- ^ Differences between types:
- Open: Anyone can vote regardless of their registered party affiliation.
- Closed: You must be registered as a Republican to vote in this election.
- Mixed: As long as you are not registered as a Democrat you can vote in this election.
References
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