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2019 European Parliament election

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SCREW BREXIT! STUPID IDEA!

2019 European Parliament election
← 2014 23–26 May 2019[1][2] 2024 →
All 751 seats to the European Parliament
376 seats needed for a majority
Turnout50.95%[3] Increase 8.34 pp
 
Leader Manfred Weber Frans Timmermans Margrethe Vestager
Alliance EPP S&D ALDE
Leader's seat Germany Netherlands Denmark
Last election 221 seats, 23.8% 191 seats, 24.4% 67 seats, 7.0%
Seats before 217 187 68
Seats won 179 153 105
Seat change Decrease 38 Decrease 34 Increase 37
  File:Nicolas Bay 07 (cropped).jpg
Leader Bas Eickhout
Ska Keller 		Jan Zahradil Nicolas Bay (pictured)
Marcel de Graaff
(defeated)
Alliance Greens/EFA ECR ENF
Leader's seat Netherlands
Germany 		Czech Republic France
Netherlands
(lost seat)
Last election 50 seats, 7.3% 70 seats, 5.2% New group
Seats before 52 76 36
Seats won 69 63 58
Seat change Increase 17 Decrease 13 Increase 22
 
Leader Nigel Farage[4] Violeta Tomić
(defeated)
Nico Cué
Alliance EFDD GUE/NGL
Leader's seat South East England Slovenia
(lost seat)
Belgium (French)
Last election 48 seats, 6.6% 52 seats, 5.6%
Seats before 41 52
Seats won 54 38
Seat change Increase 13 Decrease 14
Map of Europe showing the European party leading in each member country. In countries where some parties have had the same number of seats, the party with the most votes (all cumulative lists) is displayed.

  EPP   S&D   ALDE   ENF   ECR

  EFDD
President of the European Commission before election

Jean-Claude Juncker
EPP

Elected President of the European Commission

TBD

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An election to the European Parliament was held between 23 and 26 May 2019, the ninth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979. As of 2018, a total of 751 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) represent more than 512 million people from 28 member states. In February 2018, the European Parliament had voted to decrease the number of MEPs from 751 to 705 if the United Kingdom were to withdraw from the European Union on 29 March 2019.[5] However, the United Kingdom participated alongside other EU member states after an extension of Article 50 to 31 October 2019.[6]

On 26 May 2019, European People's Party Leader Manfred Weber won the most seats in the European Parliament, making Weber the lead candidate to become the next President of the European Commission.[7][8] The centre-left, far-left and centre-right parties suffered significant losses as environmentalist, pro-EU centrist liberal, Eurosceptic and far-right parties made substantial gains.[9]

New law

On 7 June 2018, the Council agreed at ambassador level to change the EU electoral law and to reform old laws from the 1976 Electoral Act. The purpose of the reform is to increase participation in elections, raise understanding of their European character and prevent irregular voting while at the same time respecting the constitutional and electoral traditions of the member states.[10] The reform forbids double voting and voting in third countries, thus improving the visibility of European political parties.[10] To avoid double voting, contact authorities are established to exchange data on voters, a process that has to start at least six weeks before the elections.[10]

The European Parliament gave its consent on 4 July 2018 and the Act was adopted by the Council on 13 July 2018. However, member states were not able to ratify the Act prior to the 2019 elections and therefore this election took place in line with the previous rules.[11]

Political groups and candidates

See also: Spitzenkandidat

The Spitzenkandidat process involves the nomination by European political parties of candidates for the role of Commission President, the party winning the most seats in the European Parliament receiving the first opportunity to attempt to form a majority to back their candidate (akin to how heads of government are elected in national parliamentary democracies). This process was first used in 2014 and was opposed by some in the European Council. The future of the process is uncertain, but the European Parliament has attempted to codify the process and the parties are almost certain to select the candidates again.[12] On 23 January 2018, the Constitutional Affairs Committee adopted a text stating that the Spitzenkandidat process could not be overturned, and that Parliament "will be ready to reject any candidate in the investiture procedure of the Commission President who was not appointed as a Spitzenkandidat in the run-up to the European elections".[13]

In May 2018 a Eurobarometer poll suggested that 49% of the 27,601 individuals from all 28 EU countries surveyed think that the Spitzenkandidat process will help them vote in the next European elections while 70% also think that the process requires a real debate on European issues.[14]

European People's Party

Incumbent Jean-Claude Juncker has stated he will not seek a second term as President of the European Commission.[15]

Two candidates sought the nomination of the EPP:

At their 2018 Congress in Helsinki, the EPP elected Manfred Weber as their Spitzenkandidat for President of the European Commission.[18]

Party of European Socialists

Previous candidate Martin Schulz left the European Parliament in 2017 to head the Social Democratic Party of Germany, but he stepped down from the latter position in 2018.

Two candidates were nominated by PES member parties and organisations:

  • Maroš Šefčovič (Vice-President of the Commission) announced in September his bid to head the Commission.[19]
  • Frans Timmermans (first Vice-President of the Commission, previous Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister) announced in October his bid to head Commission.[20]

Šefčovič announced his withdrawal in November and supported Frans Timmermans as the Common Candidate.[21]

The party will convene an extraordinary Congress in Lisbon to ratify the election of the candidate and to vote upon the manifesto.

European Conservatives and Reformists

Jan Zahradil, an MEP for the Czech Civic Democratic Party, is the Spitzenkandidat of the European Conservatives and Reformists.

European Green Party

As in 2014, the Greens adopted the principle of having two leading candidates for the European Elections 2019.[22] Unlike in 2014, where the candidates were chosen through an open online primary elections, the two leading candidates were elected by the Council of the Party in Berlin in November 2018.[23] Four people, two of them being currently MEPs, have declared their candidacy:[23]

At their 2018 Congress in Berlin, the party elected Ska Keller and Bas Eickhout as their Spitzenkandidat for the President of the European Commission.

European Free Alliance

Oriol Junqueras, a Catalan historian, academic and former Vice President of Catalonia who is currently imprisoned because of his involvement in the 2017 Catalan independence referendum, is the Spitzenkandidat of the European Free Alliance.[24][25]

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats

Rather than present a single candidate, the ALDE group presented a 'Team Europe' of seven people as the alliance's leading candidates.[26]

Party of the European Left

The designated candidates are Violeta Tomič from Slovenia and Belgian trade-unionist Nico Cué.[30]

Right-wing populist and Eurosceptic groups

The Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy was widely expected to disband after the election. One reason was that its biggest share of MEPs came from the United Kingdom, which was long expected to leave the EU before the election. The second was that the second-biggest partner, Italy's Five Star Movement (M5S), felt uneasy about this alliance anyway, having unsuccessfully tried to join the Greens/EFA or ALDE group instead. In February 2019, M5S alongside partners from Croatia, Finland, Greece and Poland presented a new alliance of anti-establishment parties that claim to be neither left nor right.[31]

The Movement is an alliance of right-wing populist parties set up by Steve Bannon in 2018 with the purpose of contesting the European elections. Participating parties included, at least temporarily, Lega Nord, People's Party of Belgium and Brothers of Italy and possibly French National Rally. Originally envisioned as an attempt to unite the right-wing populist parties in Europe, The Movement has so far been snubbed by the Alternative for Germany,[32] the Freedom Party of Austria[33] and the UK Independence Party.[34] In March 2019, reporters assessed Bannon's project as a failure.[35][36] Shortly ahead of the election, Marine Le Pen of the French National Rally distanced herself from Bannon, clarifying that he played no role in her party's campaign.[37]

In April 2019, Matteo Salvini of Italy's Lega launched the European Alliance of People and Nations as a new coalition of right-wing populist, hard Eurosceptic and anti-immigration parties. It has been joined by most of the members of the outgoing Europe of Nations and Freedom group (including Lega, the French National Rally, Freedom Party of Austria and the Dutch Party for Freedom) as well as some former EFDD (Alternative for Germany) and ECR parties (Danish People's Party, Finns Party). It has been predicted to become the fourth largest group in parliament with an estimate of more than 80 MEPs.[38]

New parties

2019 will see the debut of new parties such as Wiosna of Poland, Czech Pirate Party of Czech Republic, USR and PLUS of Romania, Human Shield and Most of Croatia, ĽSNS and Progressive Slovakia of Slovakia. Some of the new parties have already joined European parties, e.g. LMŠ of Slovenia is a member of ALDE.

Probably the biggest new party is La République En Marche! (LREM) of French President Emmanuel Macron, that was formed in 2016 and won the French presidential and parliamentary elections of the following year. Initially, it balked at joining any of the existing party families, instead trying to form a new parliamentary group of pro-European centrists who support Macron's plans to reform the European institutions, thus drawing away members from ALDE, EPP and S&D.[39][40] Possible partners for such a project were expected to include Spanish Ciudadanos, Progressive Slovakia and the Hungarian Momentum Movement.[39] However, the hypothetical group was considered to have dificulties to find MEPs from at least seven member states, as is required to form a new group.[39] In November 2018, LREM decided to cooperate with the liberal ALDE group instead. Nevertheless, Macron stressed that this was merely a loose alliance and his party is not a member of the ALDE Europarty. He bluntly criticised ALDE for accepting donations from the Bayer-Monsanto chemical group while LREM's campaign chief threatened to recall the alliance.[41] In April and May 2019, LREM continued its efforts to build a broader group, including ALDE but also centrist and centre-left parties outside of ALDE.[42][43]

The European Spring initiated from the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 will run as a pan-European party alliance with one unified vision for Europe, the European Green New Deal.[44] The most prominent figure is the former Greek minister Yanis Varoufakis, who will run as candidate in the constituency of Germany.

Televised debates

European Commission presidency debate candidates. Left to right: Zahradil, Cué, Keller, Vestager, Timmermans, Weber
Date Time (CEST) Institute Participants Location Language Main presenter(s)
17 April 2019 21:00 France 24 and RFI[45] Timmermans and Weber Strasbourg French Caroline de Camaret (France 24) and Dominique Baillard (RFI)
17 April 2019 22:00 France 24[46][47] Timmermans and Weber Strasbourg English Catherine Nicholson (France 24)
29 April 2019 19:00 Politico Europe[48] Eickhout, Timmermans, Tomić, Verhofstadt and Zahradil Maastricht English Ryan Heath (Politico Europe) and Rianne Letschert (Maastricht University)
2 May 2019 18:00 Financial Times[49] Keller, Timmermans, Verhofstadt and Weber Florence English Martin Sandbu (Financial Times)
7 May 2019 20:15 ARD[50] Timmermans and Weber Cologne German Ellen Ehni and Andreas Cichowicz (both ARD)
15 May 2019 21:00 EBU[51] Cué, Keller, Timmermans, Vestager, Weber, and Zahradil Brussels English Emilie Tran Nguyen (France Television), Markus Preiss (ARD Germany), and Annastiina Heikkilä (YLE Finland)
16 May 2019 20:15 ZDF and ORF[52] Timmermans and Weber Berlin German Peter Frey (ZDF) and Ingrid Thurnher (ORF)
21 May 2019 22:00 NOS and NTR[53] Timmermans and Weber Hilversum German and Dutch Jeroen Wollaars (NOS)

Apportionment of seats

Potential post-Brexit reallocation of seats

See also: Impact of Brexit on the European Union § European Parliament seats

If the United Kingdom leaves the European Union before the newly-elected MEPs are seated on 1 July 2019, the numbers of seats will be altered to what is considered by the S&D co-rapporteur Pedro Silva Pereira as "a fairer allocation of seats, finally complying with the Lisbon Treaty and the principle of degressive proportionality".[54]

Apportionment in the European Parliament
Country 2007 2009 Dec.

2011[55]

July
2013 		2014 2019 Proposals for 2019 after the
removal of UK seats[56][57]
Cambridge Compromise Decision
(Feb 2018) 		Change
from 2014
Minimising
Gini 		Minimising
malapportionment
Germany 99 99 99 99 96 96 96 96 96 Steady
France 78 72 74 74 74 74 79 96 79 Increase 5
United Kingdom 78 72 73 73 73 73 — — — Decrease 73
Italy 78 72 73 73 73 73 73 89 76 Increase 3
Spain 54 50 54 54 54 54 57 70 59 Increase 5
Poland 54 50 51 51 51 51 47 58 52 Increase 1
Romania 35 33 33 33 32 32 27 33 33 Increase 1
Netherlands 27 25 26 26 26 26 24 29 29 Increase 3
Belgium 24 22 22 22 21 21 18 21 21 Steady
Czech Republic 24 22 22 22 21 21 17 20 21 Steady
Greece 24 22 22 22 21 21 17 20 21 Steady
Hungary 24 22 22 22 21 21 16 19 21 Steady
Portugal 24 22 22 22 21 21 17 20 21 Steady
Sweden 19 18 20 20 20 20 16 19 21 Increase 1
Austria 18 17 19 19 18 18 15 18 19 Increase 1
Bulgaria 18 17 18 18 17 17 13 15 17 Steady
Denmark 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 14 Increase 1
Finland 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 14 Increase 1
Slovakia 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 14 Increase 1
Ireland 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 Increase 2
Croatia – – – 12 11 11 10 11 12 Increase 1
Lithuania 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 11 Steady
Latvia 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 Steady
Slovenia 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Steady
Estonia 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 Increase 1
Cyprus 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 Steady
Luxembourg 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Steady
Malta 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Steady
Total 785 736 754 766 751 751 639 736 705 Decrease 46
Main article: Apportionment in the European Parliament

Decisions on the apportionment of seats in the Parliament are governed by article 14 of the Treaty of Lisbon. This article lays down that "[t]he European Parliament shall be composed of representatives of the Union's citizens. They shall not exceed seven hundred and fifty in number, plus the President. Representation of citizens shall be degressively proportional, with a minimum threshold of six members per Member State. No Member State shall be allocated more than ninety-six seats".

Due to the Brexit process, the United Kingdom's 73 MEPs were expected to be removed a few months before the 2019 European Parliament election, but did not happen because of the Brexit extension until October 31. In April 2017, a group of European lawmakers discussed what should be done about the vacated seats. One plan, supported by Enrico Letta, Gianni Pittella and Emmanuel Macron, was to replace the 73 seats with a pan-European constituency list. Other options which were considered include dropping the British seats without replacement and reassigning some or all of the existing seats from other countries to reduce inequality of representation.[56] A plan to reduce the number of seats to 705 was approved by the Parliament in February 2018. It involves redistributing 27 seats to under-represented members and reserving the remaining 46 for future EU expansions. A proposal by the Constitutional Affairs Committee to create a pan-member constituency was rejected by the Parliament at the same time.[5]

Other changes

In January 2018, the French government unveiled a bill which would switch the country from using regional constituencies to a single nationwide constituency.[58] The allocation of seats for Ireland increased from 11 to 13. There had been a proposal that the two additional seats be allocated to Irish citizens living in Northern Ireland. This was supported by Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party, and also by Guy Verhofstadt, but was strongly resisted by the Democratic Unionist Party.[59] Danuta Hübner (Committee on Constitutional Affairs) said: "It is amazing what you are saying because it is the Republic of Ireland which is against this idea of giving the right to vote to nationals in third countries – so we have a problem here".[59] The two additional seats were instead allocated to two of the three constituencies in Ireland, with a special provision that the last candidate elected in these constituencies be designated to account for circumstances where the United Kingdom had not left the European Union at the time of the sitting of the Parliament.

Seat projections

There are no pan-European polls for the European elections. However, there are several organisations calculating the theoretical seat distribution in the European Parliament based on national polls in all member states. The table below displays these different projections. Since the United Kingdom notified its intention to leave the European Union in March 2017, the United Kingdom was expected not to participate in the European elections and was therefore excluded from projections. Due to recent political developments, some organisations have started providing projections for a with-UK scenario. On 10 April 2019, the European Council extended the Brexit deadline to 31 October 2019, or the first day of the month after that in which the Withdrawal Agreement is passed, whichever comes first. Consequently, the UK has to participate in the European elections. The political and legal situation remains highly uncertain.[60]

Percent

Some observers[who?] consider that the European People's Party might remain the dominant political force in the chamber while populists might be stronger than they were.[156] However, Eurosceptics could be the first force in the chamber according to Charles de Marcilly[156] whilst centrist parties such as European People's Party and the continent's Socialists could decline.[157] The following table shows projections with percentages instead of seats.

Results

Preliminary results

Preliminary 2019 results by political group[182]
Name Seats
Christian democrats and liberal conservatives EPP 179
Social democrats S&D 153
Classical liberals and social liberals ALDE 105
Ecologists and regionalists Greens/EFA 69
National conservatives and sovereignists ECR 63
Far-right politics and hard Eurosceptics ENF 58
Right-wing populists and Eurosceptics EFDD 54
Communists and democratic socialists GUE/NGL 38
Non-inscrits Non-Inscrits 8
Others and new parties N/A 24
Total 751

Groups

Key
‡ with lime background and bold text means a given group has a majority of seats for the given country.
† with yellow background and italic text means a given group has a plurality of seats for the given country.
State election Polling day Political group MEPs New parties w/o affiliation[a]
EPP (EPP) S&D (PES) ECR (AECR, ECPM) ALDE–R (ALDE, EDP) GUE/NGL (EL, NGLA, EACL) G–EFA (EGP, EFA) EFDD (MELD) ENF (EAPN) NI
Δ # % Δ # % Δ # % Δ # % Δ # % Δ # % Δ # % Δ # % Δ # % Δ #
Germany 26 May † 29 30% 16 17% 1 1% 7 7% 5 5% 22 23% 11 11% 0 0% 5 5% 96 Human Environment Animal Protection, Volt Europa, Pirate Party Germany
France 25/26 May 8 11% 5 7% 0 0% 21 28% 6 8% 12 16% 0 0% † 22 30% 0 0% 74
United Kingdom 23 May 0 0% 10 14% 4 5% 17 23% 1 1% 11 15% † 29 40% 0 0% 1 1% 73
Italy 26 May 7 10% 19 26% 5 7% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 14 19% † 28 38% 0 0% 73
Spain[183] 26 May 12 22% † 20 37% 0 0% 8 15% 6 11% 3 6% 0 0% 0 0% 5 9% 54 Vox
JUNTS
Poland 26 May 17 33% 8 16% ‡ 26 51% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 51
Romania 26 May † 14 44% 9 28% 1 3% 8 25% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 32
Netherlands 23 May 4 15% 6 23% 5 19% 6 23% 1 4% 3 12% 0 0% 0 0% 1 4% 26 50Plus
Belgium[184] 26 May 4 19% 3 14% 3 14% 4 19% 1 5% 3 14% 0 0% 3 14% 0 0% 21
Czech Republic 24/25 May 5 24% 0 0% 4 19% † 6 29% 1 5% 0 0% 0 0% 2 10% 3 14% 21 Pirate Party
Greece[185] 26 May 8 38% 2 9.5% 0 0% 0 0% 6 28.5% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 5 24% 21 Greek Solution
Hungary 26 May ‡ 13 52% 5 24% 0 0% 2 10% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 5% 21
Portugal 26 May 7 33% † 9 43% 0 0% 0 0% 4 19% 1 5% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 21
Sweden 26 May † 6 30% 5 25% 3 15% 3 15% 1 5% 2 10% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 20
Austria 26 May † 7 39% 5 28% 0 0% 1 6% 0 0% 2 11% 0 0% 3 17% 0 0% 18
Bulgaria 26 May † 7 41% 5 29% 2 12% 3 18% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 17
Finland[186] 26 May 3 23% 2 15% 2 15% 3 23% 1 8% 2 15% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 13
Denmark 26 May 1 8% 3 23% 1 8% † 5 38% 1 8% 2 15% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 13
Slovakia 25 May 3 23% 3 23% 3 23% 2 15% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2 15% 13 Slovak National Party
Croatia[187] 26 May † 4 36% 3 27% 1 9% 1 9% 0 0% 0 0% 1 9% 0 0% 1 9% 11 Independent
Ireland 24 May † 5 45% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2 18% 2 18% 0 0% 0 0% 2 18% 11 Independent
Lithuania 26 May † 3 27% 2 18% 1 9% 2 18% 0 0% 2 18% 0 0% 0 0% 1 9% 11 Independent
Latvia 25 May 2 25% 2 25% 2 25% 0 0% 0 0% 1 13% 0 0% 0 0% 1 13% 8 Development/For!
Slovenia 26 May † 4 50% 2 25% 0 0% 2 25% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 8
Cyprus[188] 26 May 2 33% 2 33% 0 0% 0 0% 2 33% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 6
Estonia 26 May 0 0% 2 33% 0 0% † 3 50% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 17% 0 0% 6
Luxembourg[189] 26 May 2 33% 1 17% 0 0% 2 33% 0 0% 1 17% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 6
Malta 25 May 2 33% ‡ 4 67% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 6
Total N/A † 179 24% 153 20% 64 8% 106 14% 38 5% 69 9% 55 7% 59 8% 28 3% 751

Notes

  1. ^ Highlight colours show declared group affiliation in the incoming parliament.

References

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See also

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