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2023 Manitoba general election

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2023 Manitoba general election
← 2019 October 3, 2023 44th →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Turnout55%
Reporting
99.59%
as of October 6, 8:45 CDT
  First party Second party Third party
 
Wab Kinew (crop 2).jpg
Heather Stefanson Consulate Winnipeg Independence Day Celebration 2022 (cropped).jpg
Dougald_Lamont,_Manitoba_Liberal_Leader.jpg
Leader Wab Kinew Heather Stefanson Dougald Lamont
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since September 16, 2017 October 30, 2021 October 21, 2017
Leader's seat Fort Rouge Tuxedo St. Boniface (lost re-election)
Last election 18 seats, 31.38% 36 seats, 47.07% 3 seats, 14.48%
Seats before 18 35 3
Seats won 34 22 1
Seat change Increase 16 Decrease 13 Decrease 2
Popular vote 221,363 204,835 51,691
Percentage 45.5% 42.1% 10.6%
Swing Increase 14.1pp Decrease 5.0pp Decrease 3.9pp
Popular vote by riding.
Premier before election

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative

Premier after election

Wab Kinew
New Democratic

The 2023 Manitoba general election was held on October 3, 2023, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba had attempted to win a third term in government, having previously won the 2016 and 2019 elections. They were defeated by the New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Wab Kinew. Following the election, Kinew became the first First Nations person to become premier of a Canadian province.

This was the first time since the 1981 Manitoba general election that an incumbent government failed to secure to a third term in office.

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1] As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date.[2] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.

On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Heather Stefanson was chosen by Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba members to succeed Premier Kelvin Goertzen, who served as interim leader of the party after Pallister's departure.[3][4] During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead had tightened during the campaign period.

Campaign

Stefanson primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans.[5] Kinew led the NDP into the election.[6] The NDP campaign has focused on healthcare reform.[7][8] In addition, Dougald Lamont led the Liberals and Janine Gibson led the Green party, having been elected leader in March.

The PCs have promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helped WestJet launch direct flights from Los Angeles to Winnipeg.[9] The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services.[9] They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes.[10] The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors including establishing a minimum income for people over 60.[11] They also promised new debt relief system if elected.[12] The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting.[13]

Other campaign issues included; crime,[14] agriculture[15] and affordable housing.[16] Indigenous issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign.[17]

In recent history Manitoba has elected majority governments so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP.[18] In the final days of the campaign the Manitoba government reported a $270M surplus in the provincial budget.[19]

Riding contests, by number of candidates (2023)
Candidates NDP PC Lib Grn KP Comm Ind Total
2 4 4 8
3 34 34 30 3 1 102
4 16 16 16 7 4 2 3 64
5 3 3 3 3 3 15
Total 57 57 49 13 5 5 3 189

Legislature summary

Elections to the 43rd Manitoba Legislature[20]
Party[21] Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Dissolution Elected % +/– Votes % Change
(pp)
New Democratic Wab Kinew 57 18 18 34 59.65 +16
Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson 57 36 35 22 38.60 –14
Liberal Dougald Lamont 49 3 3 1 1.75 –2
  Keystone Kevin Friesen 5 – – – –
Green Janine Gibson 13 – – – –
Communist Andrew Taylor 5 – – – –
  Independents 3 – – – –
  Vacant 1
Valid votes
Blank and invalid votes
Total 189 57 57 –
Registered voters/turnout

Incumbents not running for reelection

Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee New MLA
Agassiz   Eileen Clarke[22]
 Jodie Byram Jodie Byram
Brandon West   Reg Helwer[23] Wayne Balcaen Wayne Balcaen
Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard[24] Paramjit Shahi Jennifer Chen
Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox[25] Alana Vannahme Rachelle Schott
Lakeside   Ralph Eichler[26] Trevor King Trevor King
La Verendrye   Dennis Smook[27] Konrad Narth Konrad Narth
McPhillips   Shannon Martin[28] Sheilah Restall Jasdeep Devgan
Midland   Blaine Pedersen[29]
 Lauren Stone Lauren Stone
Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart[30] Jeff Bereza Jeff Bereza
Roblin   Myrna Driedger[31] Kathleen Cook Kathleen Cook
Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen[32] Grant Jackson Grant Jackson
Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere[33] Richard Perchotte   Richard Perchotte

Candidates

See also: List of candidates of the 2023 Manitoba general election

The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively.[34][35][36]

Marginal seats

Seats in the 2019 general election which were won by under 10%

Seat 2019 held 2023 Winner
Party Margin Party Margin
McPhillips   PC 1.00%   NDP 3.02%
Transcona   NDP 1.29%   NDP 23.06%
Southdale   PC 4.56%   NDP 14.32%
Rossmere   PC 8.06%   NDP 8.29%
Dauphin   PC 8.13%   NDP 3.28%
Assiniboia   PC 8.79%   NDP 9.69%
Riel   PC 9.36%   NDP 16.61%
St. Vital   NDP 9.58%   NDP 30.79%
The Maples   NDP 9.75%   NDP 32.33%
Wolseley   NDP 9.98%   NDP 65.42%

Results

Results will be declared on October 3.[37]

Results overview

Popular vote
NDP
 
 45.5%
PC
 
 42.1%
Liberal
 
 10.6%
Others
 
 1.8%
Seats
NDP
 
 59.65%
PC
 
 38.60%
Liberal
 
 1.75%

Synopsis of results

2023 Manitoba general election - synopsis of riding results (unofficial)[38]
Riding[a 1] 2019 Winning party Turnout
[a 2] 		Votes
Party Votes Share Margin
# 		Margin
% 		NDP PC Lib KP Grn Ind Comm Total
 
Agassiz   PC   PC 4,692 64.04% 3,105 42.38% 56% 1,587 4,692 327 721 - - - 7,327
Assiniboia   PC   NDP 4,721 50.02% 915 9.69% 55% 4,721 3,806 911 - - - - 9,438
Borderland   PC   PC 4,405 72.83% 3,503 57.92% 51% 902 4,405 741 - - - - 6,048
Brandon East   PC   NDP 3,736 55.40% 1,028 15.24% 45% 3,736 2,708 300 - - - - 6,744
Brandon West   PC   PC 3,805 48.80% 95 1.22% 51% 3,710 3,805 - - 282 - - 7,797
Burrows   NDP   NDP 2,999 45.84% 925 14.14% 44% 2,999 1,469 2,074 - - - - 6,542
Concordia   NDP   NDP 4,203 64.46% 2,367 36.30% 43% 4,203 1,836 481 - - - - 6,520
Dauphin   PC   NDP 5,097 51.68% 332 3.37% 64% 5,097 4,765 - - - - - 9,862
Dawson Trail   PC   PC 5,436 52.09% 923 8.84% 67% 4,513 5,436 - - 487 - - 10,436
Elmwood   NDP   NDP 4,927 62.21% 2,741 34.61% 48% 4,927 2,186 430 - 303 - 74 7,920
Flin Flon   NDP   NDP 2,843 76.55% 1,972 53.10% 42% 2,843 871 - - - - - 3,714
Fort Garry   NDP   NDP 5,307 58.81% 2,927 32.44% 59% 5,307 2,380 1,100 - 237 - - 9,024
Fort Richmond   PC   NDP 4,556 53.74% 1,515 17.87% 58% 4,556 3,041 881 - - - - 8,478
Fort Rouge   NDP   NDP 6,759 70.62% 5,197 54.30% 58% 6,759 1,562 1,149 - - - 101 9,571
Fort Whyte   PC   PC 5,442 47.86% 1,230 10.82% 67% 1,716 5,442 4,212 - - - - 11,370
Interlake-Gimli   PC   PC 5,126 49.63% 682 6.60% 67% 4,444 5,126 367 391 - - - 10,328
Keewatinook   NDP   NDP 1,702 58.63% 671 23.11% 39% 1,702 1,031 170 - - - - 2,903
Kildonan-River East   PC   NDP 5,728 49.35% 778 6.70% 64% 5,728 4,950 930 - - - - 11,608
Kirkfield Park   PC   NDP 5,169 44.68% 687 5.94% 64% 5,169 4,482 1,710 - 209 - - 11,570
La Verendrye   PC   PC 4,585 60.99% 3,028 40.28% 58% 1,557 4,585 640 736 - - - 7,518
Lac du Bonnet   PC   PC 5,402 59.96% 2,299 25.52% 58% 3,103 5,402 - - 504 - - 9,009
Lagimodière   PC   NDP 5,674 46.22% 103 0.84% 63% 5,674 5,571 1,030 - - - - 12,275
Lakeside   PC   PC 6,143 61.66% 3,437 34.50% 64% 2,706 6,143 1,114 - - - - 9,963
McPhillips   PC   NDP 4,906 47.32% 333 3.21% 54% 4,906 4,573 888 - - - - 10,367
Midland   PC   PC 6,240 69.40% 4,225 46.99% 58% 2,015 6,240 737 - - - - 8,992
Morden-Winkler   PC   PC 5,648 74.39% 3,969 52.28% 47% 1,679 5,648 265 - - - - 7,592
Notre Dame   NDP   NDP 3,871 75.68% 3,134 61.27% 38% 3,871 737 319 - 107 - 81 5,115
Point Douglas   NDP   NDP 3,347 73.46% 2,608 57.24% 32% 3,347 739 470 - - - - 4,556
Portage la Prairie   PC   PC 3,808 59.57% 1,891 29.58% 47% 1,917 3,808 301 - 366 - - 6,392
Radisson   PC   NDP 5,944 52.29% 1,141 10.04% 57% 5,944 4,803 621 - - - - 11,368
Red River North   PC   PC 5,933 60.34% 2,034 20.69% 61% 3,899 5,933 - - - - - 9,832
Riding Mountain   PC   PC 5,522 63.25% 2,688 30.79% 57% 2,834 5,522 374 - - - - 8,730
Riel   PC   NDP 6,155 54.60% 1,872 16.61% 65% 6,155 4,283 834 - - - - 11,272
River Heights   Lib   NDP 5,042 44.20% 636 5.58% 67% 5,042 1,805 4,406 - 155 - - 11,408
Roblin   PC   PC 6,082 49.70% 1,114 9.10% 62% 4,968 6,082 1,188 - - - - 12,238
Rossmere   PC   NDP 4,856 50.69% 792 8.27% 60% 4,856 4,064 478 - 181 - - 9,579
Seine River   PC   NDP 5,395 52.22% 1,431 13.85% 63% 5,395 3,964 842 - - 130 - 10,331
Selkirk   PC   PC 4,963 52.47% 467 4.94% 56% 4,496 4,963 - - - - - 9,459
Southdale   PC   NDP 5,565 48.48% 1,645 14.33% 64% 5,565 3,920 1,860 - - 135 - 11,480
Springfield-Ritchot   PC   PC 5,746 54.91% 1,923 18.38% 59% 3,823 5,746 896 - - - - 10,465
Spruce Woods   PC   PC 4,998 61.81% 3,056 37.79% 58% 1,942 4,998 1,146 - - - - 8,086
St. Boniface   Lib   NDP 5,565 53.25% 2,149 20.56% 60% 5,565 1,396 3,416 - - - 73 10,450
St. James   NDP   NDP 5,444 64.81% 3,119 37.13% 54% 5,444 2,325 631 - - - - 8,400
St. Johns   NDP   NDP 4,252 60.74% 3,135 44.79% 47% 4,252 1,097 534 - - 1,117 - 7,000
St. Vital   NDP   NDP 5,191 60.09% 2,657 30.76% 56% 5,191 2,534 913 - - - - 8,638
Steinbach   PC   PC 5,868 74.32% 4,646 58.84% 47% 1,222 5,868 801 - 5 - - 7,896
Swan River   PC   PC 4,798 63.02% 2,377 31.22% 59% 2,421 4,798 - 394 - - - 7,613
The Maples   NDP   NDP 3,788 55.46% 2,208 32.33% 49% 3,788 1,580 1,462 - - - - 6,830
The Pas-Kameesak   NDP   NDP 3,498 67.15% 2,000 38.40% 58% 3,498 1,498 213 - - - - 5,209
Thompson   NDP   NDP 2,800 67.91% 1,597 38.73% 35% 2,800 1,203 120 - - - - 4,123
Transcona   NDP   NDP 5,232 58.51% 2,062 23.06% 51% 5,232 3,170 540 - - - - 8,942
Turtle Mountain   PC   PC 4,749 55.23% 2,809 32.67% 55% 1,940 4,749 420 1,489 - - - 8,598
Tuxedo   PC   PC 3,991 40.16% 263 2.65% 60% 3,728 3,991 2,219 - - - - 9,938
Tyndall Park   Lib   Lib 4,017 54.97% 2,117 28.97% 49% 1,900 1,390 4,017 - - - - 7,307
Union Station   NDP   NDP 3,681 70.67% 2,772 53.22% 41% 3,681 909 619 - - - - 5,209
Waverley   PC   NDP 4,046 44.15% 119 1.30% 54% 4,046 3,927 995 - 197 - - 9,165
Wolseley   NDP   NDP 6,544 75.30% 5,685 65.42% 53% 6,544 859 587 - 548 - 152 8,690
  1. ^ sorted as per results summary
  2. ^ including rejected and declined ballots
  = open seat
  = turnout is above provincial average
  = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
  = other incumbents renominated

Results by riding

Riding Outgoing MLA Elected MLA
Agassiz   Eileen Clarke   Jodie Byram
Assiniboia   Scott Johnston   Nellie Kennedy
Borderland   Josh Guenter   Josh Guenter
Brandon East   Len Isleifson   Glen Simard
Brandon West   Reg Helwer   Wayne Balcaen
Burrows   Diljeet Brar   Diljeet Brar
Concordia   Matt Wiebe   Matt Wiebe
Dauphin   Brad Michaleski   Ron Kostyshyn
Dawson Trail   Bob Lagassé   Bob Lagassé
Elmwood   Jim Maloway   Jim Maloway
Flin Flon   Tom Lindsey   Tom Lindsey
Fort Garry   Mark Wasyliw   Mark Wasyliw
Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard   Jennifer Chen
Fort Rouge   Wab Kinew   Wab Kinew
Fort Whyte   Obby Khan   Obby Khan
Interlake-Gimli   Derek Johnson   Derek Johnson
Keewatinook   Ian Bushie   Ian Bushie
Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox   Rachelle Schott
Kirkfield Park   Kevin Klein   Logan Oxenham
La Verendrye   Dennis Smook   Konrad Narth
Lac du Bonnet   Wayne Ewasko   Wayne Ewasko
Lagimodière   Andrew Smith   Tyler Blashko
Lakeside   Ralph Eichler   Trevor King
McPhillips   Shannon Martin   Jasdeep Devgan
Midland   Blaine Pedersen   Lauren Stone
Morden-Winkler   Cameron Friesen   Carrie Hiebert
Notre Dame   Malaya Marcelino   Malaya Marcelino
Point Douglas   Bernadette Smith   Bernadette Smith
Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart   Jeff Bereza
Radisson   James Teitsma   Jelynn Dela Cruz
Red River North   Jeff Wharton   Jeff Wharton
Riding Mountain   Greg Nesbitt   Greg Nesbitt
Riel   Rochelle Squires   Mike Moyes
River Heights   Jon Gerrard   Mike Moroz
Roblin   Myrna Driedger   Kathleen Cook
Rossmere   Andrew Micklefield   Tracy Schmidt
Seine River   Janice Morley-Lecomte   Billie Cross
Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere   Richard Perchotte
Southdale   Audrey Gordon   Renée Cable
Springfield-Ritchot   Ron Schuler   Ron Schuler
Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen   Grant Jackson
St. Boniface   Dougald Lamont   Robert Loiselle
St. James   Adrien Sala   Adrien Sala
St. Johns   Nahanni Fontaine   Nahanni Fontaine
St. Vital   Jamie Moses   Jamie Moses
Steinbach   Kelvin Goertzen   Kelvin Goertzen
Swan River   Rick Wowchuk   Rick Wowchuk
The Maples   Mintu Sandhu   Mintu Sandhu
The Pas-Kameesak   Amanda Lathlin   Amanda Lathlin
Thompson   Eric Redhead   Eric Redhead
Transcona   Nello Altomare   Nello Altomare
Turtle Mountain   Doyle Piwniuk   Doyle Piwniuk
Tuxedo   Heather Stefanson   Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park   Cindy Lamoureux   Cindy Lamoureux
Union Station   Uzoma Asagwara   Uzoma Asagwara
Waverley   Jon Reyes   David Pankratz
Wolseley   Lisa Naylor   Lisa Naylor

Analysis

Party candidates in 2nd place
Party in 1st place Party in 2nd place Total
NDP PC Lib Ind
New Democratic 30 3 1 34
Progressive Conservative 21 1 22
Liberal 1 1
Total 22 30 4 1 57
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party
Parties 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
█ New Democratic 34 22 1
█ Progressive Conservative 22 30 5
█ Liberal 1 4 38 6
█ Independent 1 2
█ Keystone 5
█ Green 4 9
█ Communist 2 3
Resulting composition of the 43rd Manitoba Legislature
Source Party
NDP PC Lib Total
Seats retained Incumbents returned 18 12 1 31
Open seats held 10 10
Seats changing hands Incumbents defeated 12 12
Open seats gained 4 4
Total 34 22 1 57

Aftermath

Liberal leader Dougald Lamont resigned on election night following a dismal performance for his party. Both he and Jon Gerrard lost their seats leaving Cindy Lamoureux as the sole Liberal in the legislative assembly.[39] Outgoing premier and PC leader Heather Stefanson also announced her resignation as party leader on election night.

Seats changing hands

Defeated MLAs

Constituency Party Name Year elected Seat held by party since Defeated by Party
St. Boniface █ Liberal Dougald Lamont 2018 b.e 2018 b.e Robert Loiselle █ New Democratic
River Heights █ Liberal Jon Gerrard 1999 1999 Mike Moroz █ New Democratic
Southdale █ Progressive Conservative Audrey Gordon 2019 2016 Renée Cable █ New Democratic
Kirkfield Park █ Progressive Conservative Kevin Klein 2022 b.e 2016 Logan Oxenham █ New Democratic
Radisson █ Progressive Conservative James Teitsma 2016 2016 Jelynn Dela Cruz █ New Democratic
Seine River █ Progressive Conservative Janice Morley-Lecomte 2016 2016 Billie Cross █ New Democratic
Waverley █ Progressive Conservative Jon Reyes 2016 2019 (District Created) David Pankratz █ New Democratic
Brandon East █ Progressive Conservative Len Isleifson 2016 2016 Glen Simard █ New Democratic
Riel █ Progressive Conservative Rochelle Squires 2016 2016 Mike Moyes █ New Democratic
Assiniboia █ Progressive Conservative Scott Johnston 2019 2016 Nellie Kennedy █ New Democratic
Rossmere █ Progressive Conservative Andrew Micklefield 2016 2016 Tracy Schmidt █ New Democratic

Open seats

Riding Party Candidate Incumbent retiring from the House Won by Party
Fort Richmond █ Progressive Conservative Paramjit Shahi Sarah Guillemard[24] Jennifer Chen █ New Democratic
Kildonan-River East █ Progressive Conservative Alana Vannahme Cathy Cox[25] Rachelle Schott █ New Democratic
McPhillips █ Progressive Conservative Sheilah Restall Shannon Martin Jasdeep Devgan █ New Democratic
Dauphin █ Progressive Conservative Gord Wood Brad Michaleski Ron Kostyshyn █ New Democratic

Opinion polls

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.

Template:Import-blanktable

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
Polling firm Dates conducted Source PC NDP Liberal Green Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Forum Research Oct 2, 2023 [p 1] 41.3% 44.7% 12.3% 0.9% 0.8% 3.3% 910 IVR 3.4%
Research Co. Sep 30–Oct 2, 2023 [p 2] 39% 48% 10% 2% 1% 4% 600 Online 9%
Mainstreet Research Sep 28–Oct 1, 2023 [p 3] 41% 47% 10% 1% 1% 3.7% 698 Smart IVR 6%
Sovereign North Strategies Sep 17–19, 2023 [p 4] 42.5% 39.4% 15.9% 2.2% N/A 3.9% 852 Telephone 3.1%
Angus Reid Sep 13–19, 2023 [p 5] 41% 47% 9% 2% 1% 4% 990 Online 6%
Probe Research Sep 7–18, 2023 [p 6] 38% 49% 9% 2% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Online 11%
Research Co. Sep 15–17, 2023 [p 7] 39% 41% 14% 3% 2% 4% 600 Online 2%
Counsel Public Affairs Sep 11–16, 2023 [p 8] 39% 44% 13% 2% 2% 4% 505 Online 5%
Mainstreet Research Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2023 [p 9] 43% 42% 9% 3% 3% 4% 601 Smart IVR 1%
Mainstreet Research Jul 26–28, 2023 [p 10] 42% 38% 12% 3% 4% 4% 597 Smart IVR 4%
Probe Research May 31 – Jun 13, 2023 [p 11] 41% 41% 10% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Online Tie
Angus Reid May 30 – Jun 3, 2023 [p 12] 39% 44% 10% 4% 4% 4% 515 Online 5%
March 26, 2023 Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba
Probe Research Mar 8–20, 2023 [p 13] 38% 44% 9% 4% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Online 6%
Mainstreet Research Jan 24–26, 2023 [p 14] 36.2% 41.5% 14.6% 5.1% 2.1% 4.3% 514 Smart IVR 5.3%
Probe Research Nov 22 – Dec 5, 2022 [p 15] 35% 46% 13% 3% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone/Online 11%
Probe Research Sep 8–18, 2022 [p 16] 37% 44% 15% 3% 1% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Angus Reid Jun 7–13, 2022 [p 17] 38% 40% 13% 3% 6% 5% 468 Online 2%
Probe Research Jun 1–12, 2022 [p 18] 35% 45% 13% 3% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Mar 9–21, 2022 [p 19] 34% 44% 15% 2% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Angus Reid Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 20][p 21] 39% 40% 14% 3% 5% 4% 475 Online 1%
Angus Reid Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 22] 36% 42% 12% 3% 6% 5% 407 Online 6%
Probe Research Nov 23 – Dec 5, 2021 [p 23] 37% 42% 12% 4% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 5%
October 30, 2021 Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Innovative Research Sep 24 – Oct 5, 2021 [p 24] 41% 32% 18% 5% 3% N/A 678 Online 9%
Angus Reid Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2021 [p 25] 38% 43% 11% 4% 5% N/A 435 Online 5%
Probe Research Sep 7–20, 2021 [p 26] 35% 42% 12% 3% 8% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2021 [p 27] 29% 47% 14% 5% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 18%
Angus Reid Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 28] 39% 42% 11% 4% 4% 4.0% 504 Online 3%
Probe Research Mar 10–26, 2021 [p 29] 36% 42% 11% 7% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
Probe Research Nov 24 – Dec 4, 2020 [p 30] 37% 41% 14% 6% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 4%
Angus Reid Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 31] 39% 40% 12% 5% 4% 4.8% 420 Online 1%
Probe Research Sep 8–17, 2020 [p 32] 43% 34% 16% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 9%
EKOS Jul 24 – Aug 26, 2020 [p 33] 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 2.9% 1,154 HD-IVR 13%
EKOS Jun 16 – Jul 23, 2020 [p 34] 43% 27% 18% 7% 5% 2.4% 1,691 HD-IVR 16%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2020 [p 35] 38% 36% 18% 7% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 2%
Innovative Research May 29 – Jun 3, 2020 [p 36] 38% 26% 26% 10% N/A N/A 200 Online 12%
Probe Research Mar 10–24, 2020 [p 37] 43% 33% 14% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Nov 27 – Dec 10, 2019 [p 38] 42% 36% 13% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
2019 general election September 10, 2019 — 47.1% 31.4% 14.5% 6.4% 0.6% — — — 15.7%
Polling firm Dates conducted Source Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
PC NDP Liberal Green

See also

Notes

References

  1. ^ Elections Act, CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
  2. ^ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
  3. ^ Petz, Sarah (August 11, 2021). "Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election". CBC News. Archived from the original on August 30, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  4. ^ Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021). "Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin". CBC News. Archived from the original on October 30, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  5. ^ "Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign". September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  6. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  7. ^ "NDP's Kinew promises to boost health care, balance the budget". October 16, 2022. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
  8. ^ "Economy, health care continue to draw focus of Manitoba election campaign". Winnipeg. September 14, 2023. Archived from the original on September 26, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  9. ^ a b "Manitoba's election campaign will focus on the economy and health care Thursday – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on September 25, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  10. ^ "Manitoba New Democrats promise to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  11. ^ "Manitoba Liberals urge voters to choose a different option this election – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  12. ^ "Manitoba Liberals promise new debt relief tools if elected". CBC News. September 27, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  13. ^ "Manitoba Chamber wants you to vote for prosperity". The Graphic Leader. September 27, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  14. ^ Gowriluk, Caitlyn (September 22, 2023). "Fact-checking Wab Kinew's promises on crime during Manitoba party leaders' debate". CBC News. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  15. ^ "Candidates encouraged to recognize the importance of Manitoba's pork industry". PortageOnline. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  16. ^ "New poll sheds light on Manitoba housing issues – REMI Network". REMINET. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  17. ^ Kives, Bartley (October 2, 2023). "Weaponized by PCs, sidelined by NDP: Indigenous concerns largely absent from Manitoba election". CBC News. Archived from the original on October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  18. ^ "Winners of recent Manitoba elections have seen sizable majority governments – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  19. ^ Hobson, Brittany; Modified, The Canadian Press Posted: Last (September 29, 2023). "Manitoba reports $270M surplus days ahead of vote". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  20. ^ Unofficial Results
  21. ^ "Political Parties". Elections Manitoba. Archived from the original on August 15, 2023. Retrieved July 10, 2023.
  22. ^ Clarke, Eileen (August 21, 2022). "I will be retiring from my political life as of the 2023 provincial election". Facebook. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  23. ^ Darren Bernhardt, Ian Froese, "Add Reg Helwer to growing list of Manitoba Tory MLAs bowing out of provincial politics" Archived January 6, 2023, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, January 6, 2023.
  24. ^ a b "Manitoba cabinet minister Sarah Guillemard won't run for re-election for health reasons". CBC Manitoba. The Canadian Press. June 13, 2023. Archived from the original on June 13, 2023. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  25. ^ a b Darren Bernhardt (January 5, 2023). "Cathy Cox becomes the latest Tory MLA to decide against re-election bid". CBC Manitoba. Archived from the original on January 5, 2023. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
  26. ^ The Canadian Press, "Former Manitoba cabinet minister Ralph Eichler won't seek re-election" Archived October 4, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. Winnipeg Free Press, October 4, 2022.
  27. ^ Jordan Ross, "Smook to retire from legislature" Archived October 19, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. Winnipeg Free Press, October 17, 2022.
  28. ^ Steve Lambert, The Canadian Press (February 22, 2023). "Shannon Martin is the latest Manitoba Tory to opt out of upcoming election". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on February 23, 2023. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
  29. ^ Blaine Pedersen [@BlainePedersen] (July 15, 2021). "I will not be seeking re-election in the next provincial election" (Tweet). Retrieved July 15, 2021 – via Twitter.
  30. ^ Michael Blume, "Portage MLA Ian Wishart won't be running in next election" Archived December 29, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. Portage Online, December 16, 2022.
  31. ^ Ian Froese, "Veteran Tory MLA Myrna Driedger won't run in 2023 Manitoba election" Archived January 4, 2023, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, January 4, 2023.
  32. ^ Bartley Kives, "Deputy premier Cliff Cullen won't seek another term in Manitoba legislature" Archived December 29, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, December 29, 2022.
  33. ^ Ian Froese, "Indigenous reconciliation minister Alan Lagimodiere won't seek re-election in 2023" Archived January 4, 2023, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, January 3, 2023.
  34. ^ "Candidates". Elections Manitoba. Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
  35. ^ "Our Team". Manitoba NDP. Archived from the original on May 31, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  36. ^ Froese, Ian (April 11, 2023). "PCs, NDP place candidates in competitive Manitoba election races as polling gap narrows". CBC. Archived from the original on May 9, 2023. Retrieved May 30, 2023.
  37. ^ "Manitoba's 43rd General Election - October 3, 2023". electionsmanitoba.ca. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  38. ^ "Manitoba's 43rd General Election - October 3, 2023 (Unofficial Results)". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved October 5, 2023.
  39. ^ "Dougald Lamont stepping down as Manitoba Liberal leader". Winnipeg. October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 4, 2023.

Opinion poll sources

  1. ^ "NDP Majority Government Likely" (PDF). Forum Research. October 2, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  2. ^ "Voters in Manitoba Give NDP the Lead Before Election Day". Research Co. October 2, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  3. ^ Martin, Robert (October 2, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, October 2023 Public". Mainstreet Research. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  4. ^ "Voter Intention Survey for Manitoba & Winnipeg September 17–19,23". Sovereign North Strategies. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  5. ^ "Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign". Angus Reid. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  6. ^ "With election day nearing, latest polling shows NDP surging ahead in Manitoba". CTV News. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  7. ^ "Voters in Manitoba Deeply Divided as Campaign Continues". Research Co. September 18, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  8. ^ "Manitoba Public Opinion Report September 26, 2023" (PDF). Counsel Public Affairs. September 26, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
  9. ^ Fric, Curtis (September 7, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, August 2023 Public". Archived from the original on September 7, 2023. Retrieved September 7, 2023.
  10. ^ Fric, Curtis (August 2, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, July 2023 Public". Archived from the original on August 3, 2023. Retrieved August 3, 2023.
  11. ^ "NDP, PCs Head Into Pre-Election Period In a Dead Heat (June 2023 Provincial Voting Intentions)". Probe Research. June 21, 2023. Archived from the original on June 22, 2023. Retrieved June 23, 2023.
  12. ^ "Double-digit advantage in Winnipeg has Manitoba NDP comfortably ahead in lead-up to October election". Angus Reid Institute. June 13, 2023. Archived from the original on June 13, 2023. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  13. ^ "Manitoba Provincial Party Support" (PDF). probe-research.com. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 28, 2023. Retrieved March 28, 2023.
  14. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey – Manitoba" (PDF). ipolitics.ca. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 1, 2023. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
  15. ^ "NDP Lead Inches Slightly Higher (December 2022 Omnibus) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 12, 2022. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
  16. ^ "Support for Manitoba PCs has slipped since last election, NDP holds the lead | CTV News". ctvnews.ca. September 25, 2022. Archived from the original on September 26, 2022. Retrieved September 27, 2022.
  17. ^ "Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. July 8, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 9, 2022. Retrieved July 19, 2022.
  18. ^ "NDP Maintains Lead Over PCs In Manitoba (June 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Archived from the original on July 19, 2022. Retrieved June 19, 2022.
  19. ^ "Gap Between NDP, PCs Widens (March 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on July 19, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  20. ^ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  21. ^ "Detailed Results" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  22. ^ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  23. ^ "No Bounce for New PC Leader and Premier | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 16, 2021. Retrieved December 16, 2021.
  24. ^ "Canada This Month: Manitoba Politics" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on October 9, 2021. Retrieved October 11, 2021.
  25. ^ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments | Angus Reid Institute" (PDF). www.angusreid.org. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  26. ^ "Progressive Conservative Support Rebounds in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on October 2, 2021. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
  27. ^ "NDP Lead Widens Further in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on June 18, 2021. Retrieved June 18, 2021.
  28. ^ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity and political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management | Angus Reid Institute". www.angusreid.org. June 9, 2021. Archived from the original on June 13, 2021. Retrieved June 13, 2021.
  29. ^ "NDP Extends Lead as Pallister Plumbs Lower Levels of Popularity | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on March 31, 2021. Retrieved March 31, 2021.
  30. ^ "NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on January 17, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  31. ^ "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, The CCP virus management". Angus Reid Institute. December 10, 2020. Archived from the original on January 13, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  32. ^ "Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on January 27, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  33. ^ "Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. September 2, 2020. Archived from the original on January 14, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  34. ^ "Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  35. ^ "PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 3, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  36. ^ "Manitoba Politics in the Time of The CCP virus: June 2020 Update" (PDF). innovativeresearch.ca. Archived from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  37. ^ "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 3, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  38. ^ Robertson, Dylan (December 27, 2019). "Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on September 17, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
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