Jump to content

2024 California's 45th congressional district election: Difference between revisions

Add links
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Browse history interactively
← Previous editNext edit →
Content deleted Content added
VisualWikitext
Removing non-notable endorser per WP:ENDORSE
update
(44 intermediate revisions by 18 users not shown)
Line 6: Line 6:
| country = California
| country = California
| type = presidential
| type = presidential
| ongoing = yes
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in California#District 45
| previous_election = 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in California#District 45
| previous_year = 2022
| previous_year = 2022
Line 16: Line 16:
| candidate1 = [[Michelle Steel]]
| candidate1 = [[Michelle Steel]]
| party1 = Republican Party (United States)
| party1 = Republican Party (United States)
| popular_vote1 =
| popular_vote1 = 151,395
| percentage1 =
| percentage1 = 50.1%
| image2 = 3x4.svg
| image2 = 3x4.svg
| candidate2 = Derek Tran
| candidate2 = Derek Tran
| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)
| party2 = Democratic Party (United States)
| popular_vote2 =
| popular_vote2 = 151,046
| percentage2 =
| percentage2 = 49.9%
| map_image =
| map_image =
| map_size =
| map_size =
Line 31: Line 31:
| after_election =
| after_election =
| after_party =
| after_party =
| reporting = 93
| last_update = Nov. 13, 5:24 PM
| time_zone = [[Pacific Time Zone|PST]]
}}
}}
{{Elections in California}}
{{Elections in California}}
The '''2024 California's 45th congressional district election''' will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the [[United States representative]] for [[California's 45th congressional district]], concurrently with [[2024 United States House of Representatives elections in California|elections for the other U.S. House districts in California]] and the [[2024 United States House of Representatives elections|rest of the country]], as well as the [[2024 United States Senate election in California|2024 U.S. Senate race in California]], other [[2024 United States Senate elections|elections]] to the [[United States Senate]], and various [[2024 United States elections#State elections|state]] and [[2024 United States elections#Local elections|local elections]]. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the [[Super Tuesday]] presidential primaries.
The '''2024 California's 45th congressional district election''' was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the [[United States representative]] for [[California's 45th congressional district]], concurrently with [[2024 United States House of Representatives elections in California|elections for the other U.S. House districts in California]] and the [[2024 United States House of Representatives elections|rest of the country]], as well as the [[2024 United States Senate election in California|2024 U.S. Senate race in California]], other [[2024 United States Senate elections|elections]] to the [[United States Senate]], and various [[2024 United States elections#State elections|state]] and [[2024 United States elections#Local elections|local elections]]. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the [[Super Tuesday]] presidential primaries.


Based in [[Orange County, California|Orange County]] and [[Los Angeles County]], the 45th district contains all of [[Fountain Valley, California|Fountain Valley]], [[Westminster, California|Westminster]], [[Garden Grove, California|Garden Grove]], [[Cypress, California|Cypress]], [[Buena Park]], [[Cerritos, California|Cerritos]], [[Artesia, California|Artesia]], [[La Palma, California|La Palma]], [[Placentia, California|Placentia]], [[Hawaiian Gardens]], [[Los Alamitos, California|Los Alamitos]], and [[Rossmoor, California|Rossmoor]], as well as portions of [[Brea, California|Brea]], [[Lakewood, California|Lakewood]], [[Fullerton, California|Fullerton]], and [[Yorba Linda]].<ref>{{cite web |url=https://steel.house.gov/about/our-district |title=Our District |website=[[United States House of Representatives]] Page of Congresswoman Steel |date=January 3, 2021 |access-date=May 1, 2023}}</ref> One-third of all registered voters in the district are [[Asian American]], with [[Vietnamese Americans]] alone comprising 16% of the district's voters.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1134121891/why-a-southern-california-congressional-race-hinges-on-asian-american-voters |title=Why a Southern California congressional race hinges on Asian American voters |website=[[NPR]] |date=November 9, 2022 |last=Chan |first=Melissa |publisher=The Morning Edition |language=en-US |access-date=May 1, 2023}}</ref>
Based in [[Orange County, California|Orange County]] and [[Los Angeles County]], the 45th district contains all of [[Fountain Valley, California|Fountain Valley]], [[Westminster, California|Westminster]], [[Garden Grove, California|Garden Grove]], [[Cypress, California|Cypress]], [[Buena Park]], [[Cerritos, California|Cerritos]], [[Artesia, California|Artesia]], [[La Palma, California|La Palma]], [[Placentia, California|Placentia]], [[Hawaiian Gardens]], [[Los Alamitos, California|Los Alamitos]], and [[Rossmoor, California|Rossmoor]], as well as portions of [[Brea, California|Brea]], [[Lakewood, California|Lakewood]], [[Fullerton, California|Fullerton]], and [[Yorba Linda]].<ref>{{cite web |url=https://steel.house.gov/about/our-district |title=Our District |website=[[United States House of Representatives]] Page of Congresswoman Steel |date=January 3, 2021 |access-date=May 1, 2023}}</ref> One-third of all registered voters in the district are [[Asian American]], with [[Vietnamese Americans]] alone comprising 16% of the district's voters.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1134121891/why-a-southern-california-congressional-race-hinges-on-asian-american-voters |title=Why a Southern California congressional race hinges on Asian American voters |website=[[NPR]] |date=November 9, 2022 |last=Chan |first=Melissa |publisher=The Morning Edition |language=en-US |access-date=May 1, 2023}}</ref>
Line 69: Line 72:
;Organizations
;Organizations
*[[Patriotic Millionaires]]<ref name="patmillsfirstendorse">{{Cite web |date=2024-02-05 |title=Patriotic Millionaires Endorse First Candidates of 2024 |url=https://patrioticmillionaires.org/press-release/patriotic-millionaires-endorse-first-candidates-of-2024/ |access-date=2024-02-27 |website=Patriotic Millionaires |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Patriotic Millionaires]]<ref name="patmillsfirstendorse">{{Cite web |date=2024-02-05 |title=Patriotic Millionaires Endorse First Candidates of 2024 |url=https://patrioticmillionaires.org/press-release/patriotic-millionaires-endorse-first-candidates-of-2024/ |access-date=2024-02-27 |website=Patriotic Millionaires |language=en-US}}</ref>
}}{{Endorsements box
| title = Aditya Pai (D)
| list =
;Organizations
*[[Democrats Serve]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=RELEASE: Democrats Serve endorses six candidates running in competitive House races for 2023-24 |url=https://democratsserve.org/press-releases/democrats-serve-endorses-six-house-candidates-2023-24 |access-date=2024-03-02 |website=Democrats Serve |language=en-US}}</ref>
}}{{Endorsements box
}}{{Endorsements box
| title = Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D)
| title = Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D)
Line 95: Line 93:
*[[Cottie Petrie-Norris]], [[California State Assembly|state assemblywoman]] from the [[California's 73rd State Assembly district|73rd district]] (2018–present)<ref name=nabtuoc />
*[[Cottie Petrie-Norris]], [[California State Assembly|state assemblywoman]] from the [[California's 73rd State Assembly district|73rd district]] (2018–present)<ref name=nabtuoc />
*[[Sharon Quirk-Silva]], [[California State Assembly|state assemblywoman]] from the [[California's 65th State Assembly district|65th district]] (2012–2014, 2016–present)<ref name=newsantaana />
*[[Sharon Quirk-Silva]], [[California State Assembly|state assemblywoman]] from the [[California's 65th State Assembly district|65th district]] (2012–2014, 2016–present)<ref name=newsantaana />
*[[Avelino Valencia]], [[California State Assembly|state assemblyman]] from the [[California's 68th State Assembly district|68th district]] (2022–present)<ref name=nwpc>{{Cite web |url=https://theliberaloc.com/2023/10/03/national-womens-political-caucus-nwpc-endorses-kim-nguyen-for-congress/ |title=National Women’s Political Caucus (NWPC) Endorses Kim Nguyen for Congress |last=Chmielewski |first=Dan |website=The Liberal OC |date=October 3, 2023 |access-date=October 4, 2023 |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Avelino Valencia]], [[California State Assembly|state assemblyman]] from the [[California's 68th State Assembly district|68th district]] (2022–present)<ref name=nwpc>{{Cite web |url=https://theliberaloc.com/2023/10/03/national-womens-political-caucus-nwpc-endorses-kim-nguyen-for-congress/ |title=National Women's Political Caucus (NWPC) Endorses Kim Nguyen for Congress |last=Chmielewski |first=Dan |website=The Liberal OC |date=October 3, 2023 |access-date=October 4, 2023 |language=en-US}}</ref>


;Municipal officials
;Municipal officials
Line 101: Line 99:


;Local officials
;Local officials
*Valerie Amezcua, mayor of [[Santa Ana, California|Santa Ana]] (2022–present)<ref name=newsantaana />
*José Trinidad Castañeda, [[Buena Park, California|Buena Park]] city councilor (2022–present)<ref name=newsantaana />
*[[Farrah Khan]], mayor of [[Irvine, California|Irvine]] (2020–present)<ref name=newsantaana />
*[[Farrah Khan]], mayor of [[Irvine, California|Irvine]] (2020–present)<ref name=newsantaana />
*Jimmy Pham, member of the [[Westminster, California|Westminster]] Traffic Commission (2022–present) and former candidate for this seat in 2024<ref name=pham4nguyen />
*Jimmy Pham, member of the [[Westminster, California|Westminster]] Traffic Commission (2022–present) and former candidate for this seat in 2024<ref name=pham4nguyen />
*Mark Pulido, former mayor of [[Cerritos, California|Cerritos]] (2014–2015, 2018–2019)<ref name=ctanea>{{Cite web |url=https://theliberaloc.com/2023/11/30/california-teachers-and-national-education-association-endorse-kim-nguyen-penaloza-for-congress/ |title=California Teachers and National Education Association Endorse Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress |website=The Liberal OC |date=November 30, 2023 |access-date=December 1, 2023 |language=en-US |last=Chmielewski |first=Dan}}</ref>
*6 other local officials<ref name=ctanea>{{Cite web |url=https://theliberaloc.com/2023/11/30/california-teachers-and-national-education-association-endorse-kim-nguyen-penaloza-for-congress/ |title=California Teachers and National Education Association Endorse Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress |website=The Liberal OC |date=November 30, 2023 |access-date=December 1, 2023 |language=en-US |last=Chmielewski |first=Dan}}</ref><ref name=newsantaana /><ref name=tokuda />
*Luis Roa, former mayor of [[Hawaiian Gardens, California|Hawaiian Gardens]] (2020–2023)<ref name=ctanea />
*Susan Sonne, [[Buena Park, California|Buena Park]] city councilor (2020–present)<ref name=newsantaana />
*John Stephens, mayor of [[Costa Mesa, California|Costa Mesa]] (2021–present)<ref name=ctanea />
*Connor Traut, [[Buena Park, California|Buena Park]] city councilor (2018–present)<ref name=newsantaana />
*Jocelyn Yow, [[Eastvale, California|Eastvale]] city councilor (2018–present)<ref name=tokuda />


;Individuals
;Individuals
*[[Maria Cardona]], political strategist<ref name=correa />
*[[Maria Cardona]], political strategist<ref name=correa />


;Party chapters
;Political parties
*[[California Democratic Party]]<ref>{{cite web |work=California Democratic Party |date=November 19, 2023 |access-date=November 20, 2023 |title=Primary Endorsements |url=https://cadem.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Primary-Election-Endorsements.pdf}}</ref>
*[[California Democratic Party]]<ref>{{cite web |work=California Democratic Party |date=November 19, 2023 |access-date=November 20, 2023 |title=Primary Endorsements |url=https://cadem.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Primary-Election-Endorsements.pdf}}</ref>
*Los Angeles County Democratic Party<ref name=lacdp>{{cite web |title=Endorsed Candidates {{!}} 2024 Presidential Primary Election |website=Los Angeles County Democratic Party |access-date=March 5, 2024 |url=https://www.lacdp.org/candidates?filter=county-wide}}</ref>
*Los Angeles County Democratic Party<ref name=lacdp>{{cite web |title=Endorsed Candidates {{!}} 2024 Presidential Primary Election |website=Los Angeles County Democratic Party |access-date=March 5, 2024 |url=https://www.lacdp.org/candidates?filter=county-wide}}</ref>
Line 129: Line 120:
*[[International Longshore and Warehouse Union]] Southern California District Council<ref name=unite11 />
*[[International Longshore and Warehouse Union]] Southern California District Council<ref name=unite11 />
*[[International Union of Painters and Allied Trades]] District Council 36<ref name=nabtuoc />
*[[International Union of Painters and Allied Trades]] District Council 36<ref name=nabtuoc />
*[[Laborers' International Union of North America]]<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://theliberaloc.com/2023/11/30/laborers-international-union-of-north-america-liuna-endorses-kim-nguyen-penaloza-for-congress/ |title=Laborers’ International Union of North America (LIUNA) Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress |website=The Liberal OC |language=en-US |last=Chmielewski |first=Dan |date=November 30, 2023 |access-date=December 1, 2023}}</ref>
*[[Laborers' International Union of North America]]<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://theliberaloc.com/2023/11/30/laborers-international-union-of-north-america-liuna-endorses-kim-nguyen-penaloza-for-congress/ |title=Laborers' International Union of North America (LIUNA) Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress |website=The Liberal OC |language=en-US |last=Chmielewski |first=Dan |date=November 30, 2023 |access-date=December 1, 2023}}</ref>
*[[North America's Building Trades Unions|Los Angeles/Orange County Building and Construction Trades Council]]<ref name=nabtuoc />
*[[North America's Building Trades Unions|Los Angeles/Orange County Building and Construction Trades Council]]<ref name=nabtuoc />
*[[National Education Association]]<ref name=ctanea />
*[[National Education Association]]<ref name=ctanea />
Line 173: Line 164:
*[[California Rifle and Pistol Association]]<ref name="calirifleandgunendorse">{{Cite web |title=CRPA PAC Endorsed Federal Candidates |url=https://crpa.org/crpa-endorsed-federal-candidate-profiles/ |access-date=2024-02-14 |website=CRPA |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[California Rifle and Pistol Association]]<ref name="calirifleandgunendorse">{{Cite web |title=CRPA PAC Endorsed Federal Candidates |url=https://crpa.org/crpa-endorsed-federal-candidate-profiles/ |access-date=2024-02-14 |website=CRPA |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association]] PAC<ref name=HJTAPAC>{{Cite web |title=Endorsements by the HJTA PAC |url=https://www.hjta.org/endorsements-by-the-hjta-pac/ |access-date=2024-01-29 |website=Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association]] PAC<ref name=HJTAPAC>{{Cite web |title=Endorsements by the HJTA PAC |url=https://www.hjta.org/endorsements-by-the-hjta-pac/ |access-date=2024-01-29 |website=Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Huck PAC]]<ref name="HUCK">{{Cite web |title=Huck PAC endorses 19 new candidates in 12 states - Blog - Huck PAC |url=https://www.huckpac.com/blog_1?ID=80C38336-4BA1-4E7C-81D4-EC92DDA6C9FF |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230906160052/https://www.huckpac.com/blog_1?ID=80C38336-4BA1-4E7C-81D4-EC92DDA6C9FF |archive-date=September 6, 2023 |access-date=September 6, 2023 |date=September 5, 2023 |website=[[Huck PAC]] |language=en}}</ref>
*[[International Franchise Association]]<ref name="Franchiseassociationendorsments">{{Cite web |date=2024-02-28 |title=IFA Endorses Congressional Candidates Ahead of Primary Elections {{!}} International Franchise Association |url=https://www.franchise.org/media-center/press-releases/ifa-endorses-congressional-candidates-ahead-of-primary-elections |access-date=2024-03-01 |website=www.franchise.org |language=en}}</ref>
*[[International Franchise Association]]<ref name="Franchiseassociationendorsments">{{Cite web |date=2024-02-28 |title=IFA Endorses Congressional Candidates Ahead of Primary Elections {{!}} International Franchise Association |url=https://www.franchise.org/media-center/press-releases/ifa-endorses-congressional-candidates-ahead-of-primary-elections |access-date=2024-03-01 |website=www.franchise.org |language=en}}</ref>
*[[Maggie's List]]<ref name="magies">{{Cite web |title=The Messenger: A PAC Dedicated to Electing GOP Women Issues First Wave of 2024 Endorsements (Exclusive) |url=http://maggieslist.org/press/the-messenger-a-pac-dedicated-to-electing-gop-women-issues-first-wave-of-2024-endorsements-exclusive |access-date=September 6, 2023 |date=June 15, 2023 |last=Holt |first=Matt |website=[[The Messenger (website)|The Messenger]] via Maggie's List |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Maggie's List]]<ref name="magies">{{Cite web |title=The Messenger: A PAC Dedicated to Electing GOP Women Issues First Wave of 2024 Endorsements (Exclusive) |url=http://maggieslist.org/press/the-messenger-a-pac-dedicated-to-electing-gop-women-issues-first-wave-of-2024-endorsements-exclusive |access-date=September 6, 2023 |date=June 15, 2023 |last=Holt |first=Matt |website=[[The Messenger (website)|The Messenger]] via Maggie's List |language=en-US}}</ref>
Line 180: Line 170:
*[[Republican Jewish Coalition]]<ref name="RJC">{{Cite web |title=RJC Announces 11 House Endorsements |url=https://www.rjchq.org/rjc_announces_11_house_endorsements |access-date=2023-12-24 |website=Republican Jewish Coalition |language=en}}</ref>
*[[Republican Jewish Coalition]]<ref name="RJC">{{Cite web |title=RJC Announces 11 House Endorsements |url=https://www.rjchq.org/rjc_announces_11_house_endorsements |access-date=2023-12-24 |website=Republican Jewish Coalition |language=en}}</ref>


;Party chapters
;Political parties
*[[California Republican Party]]<ref name="cagop">{{Cite web |title=CAGOP Releases Several Endorsements for 2024 Election
*[[California Republican Party]]<ref name="cagop">{{Cite web |title=CAGOP Releases Several Endorsements for 2024 Election
|url=https://www.cagop.org/s/blog/cagop-releases-several-endorsements-for-2024-election-MCPCSMW4KP2FDJZAJQWS7LYY7HCU |access-date=2023-07-23 |website=California Republican Party |language=English}}</ref>
|url=https://www.cagop.org/s/blog/cagop-releases-several-endorsements-for-2024-election-MCPCSMW4KP2FDJZAJQWS7LYY7HCU |access-date=2023-07-23 |website=California Republican Party |language=English}}</ref>
Line 202: Line 192:
*[[AAPI Victory Fund]]<ref name="aapi01">{{cite web|url=https://www.aapivictoryfund.com/candidates|title=Endorsed Candidates|access-date=February 20, 2024}}</ref>
*[[AAPI Victory Fund]]<ref name="aapi01">{{cite web|url=https://www.aapivictoryfund.com/candidates|title=Endorsed Candidates|access-date=February 20, 2024}}</ref>
*[[ASPIRE PAC]]<ref name="aspiregiltran" />
*[[ASPIRE PAC]]<ref name="aspiregiltran" />
*[[New Politics (political non-profit)|New Politics]]<ref name=LiberalOC>{{Cite web |url=https://theliberaloc.com/2023/10/31/new-politics-endorses-derek-tran-in-ca45/ |title=New Politics Endorses Derek Tran In CA45 |access-date=November 13, 2023 |date=October 31, 2023 |website=The Liberal OC |last=Chmielewski |first=Dan}}</ref>
*[[NewDem Action Fund]]<ref name="newdem01">{{Cite web |date=2023-12-12 |title=NewDem Action Fund Announces Latest Red-to-Blue Candidate Endorsement Slate for 2024 |url=http://newdemactionfund.com/press-releases/2023/12/12/newdem-action-fund-announces-latest-red-to-blue-candidate-endorsement-slate-for-2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231212143840/https://newdemactionfund.com/press-releases/2023/12/12/newdem-action-fund-announces-latest-red-to-blue-candidate-endorsement-slate-for-2024 |archive-date=2023-12-12 |access-date=2023-12-12 |website=NewDem Action Fund |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[NewDem Action Fund]]<ref name="newdem01">{{Cite web |date=2023-12-12 |title=NewDem Action Fund Announces Latest Red-to-Blue Candidate Endorsement Slate for 2024 |url=http://newdemactionfund.com/press-releases/2023/12/12/newdem-action-fund-announces-latest-red-to-blue-candidate-endorsement-slate-for-2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231212143840/https://newdemactionfund.com/press-releases/2023/12/12/newdem-action-fund-announces-latest-red-to-blue-candidate-endorsement-slate-for-2024 |archive-date=2023-12-12 |access-date=2023-12-12 |website=NewDem Action Fund |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[VoteVets]]<ref name="vv01">{{cite web |work=Derek Tran for Congress |access-date=December 1, 2023 |url=https://mailchi.mp/67d89f95463e/release-derek-tran-triples-democratic-field-in-ca45-with-300k-raised-in-two-weeks-6260345?e=1e0b037173 |date=December 1, 2023 |title=VoteVets Endorses Derek Tran for CA-45}}</ref>
*[[VoteVets]]<ref name="vv01">{{cite web |work=Derek Tran for Congress |access-date=December 1, 2023 |url=https://mailchi.mp/67d89f95463e/release-derek-tran-triples-democratic-field-in-ca45-with-300k-raised-in-two-weeks-6260345?e=1e0b037173 |date=December 1, 2023 |title=VoteVets Endorses Derek Tran for CA-45}}</ref>
Line 210: Line 199:
{| class="wikitable sortable"
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|-
|-
! colspan=4 |Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
! colspan=4 |Campaign finance reports as of October 30, 2024
|- style="text-align:center;"
|- style="text-align:center;"
!Candidate
!Candidate
Line 218: Line 207:
|-
|-
|{{party shading/Republican}}|Michelle Steel (R)
|{{party shading/Republican}}|Michelle Steel (R)
|$4,506,57{{efn|$710,000 of this total was self-funded by Steel}}
|$8,971,455{{efn|$1,910,000 of this total was self-funded by Steel}}
|$2,030,991
|$5,675,115
|$2,932,122
|$3,752,876
|-
|-
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Cheyenne Hunt (D)
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Cheyenne Hunt (D)
Line 228: Line 217:
|-
|-
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D)
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D)
|$314,706
|$359,909
|$284,58
|$357,405
|$30,122
|$2,503
|-
|-
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Aditya Pai (D)
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Aditya Pai (D)
|$302,162{{efn|$33,833 of this total was self-funded by Pai}}
|$304,926{{efn|$33,833 of this total was self-funded by Pai}}
|$268,840
|$276,752
|$15,594
|$10,396
|-
|-
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Derek Tran (D)
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Derek Tran (D)
|$646,705
|$4,380,401
|$580,075
|$3,423,836
|$66,630
|$956,564
|-
|-
! colspan="4" |<small>Source: [[Federal Election Commission]]<ref name="FEC44">{{cite web |title=2024 Election United States House - California - District 45 - FEC |url=https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/CA/45/2024/ |website=fec.gov |publisher=[[Federal Election Commission]] |access-date=February 1, 2024}}</ref></small>
! colspan="4" |<small>Source: [[Federal Election Commission]]<ref name="FEC44">{{cite web |title=2024 Election United States House - California - District 45 - FEC |url=https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/CA/45/2024/ |website=fec.gov |publisher=[[Federal Election Commission]] |access-date=February 1, 2024}}</ref></small>
Line 260: Line 249:
! Undecided
! Undecided
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/CA45-Executive-Summary.pdf RMG Research]{{efn-ua|Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/CA45-Executive-Summary.pdf RMG Research]{{efn-ua|Poll sponsored by [[U.S. Term Limits]]}}
|November 14–19, 2023
|November 14–19, 2023
|300 (LV)
|300 (LV)
Line 272: Line 261:
|{{party shading/Undecided}}|'''47%'''
|{{party shading/Undecided}}|'''47%'''
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://prod.cdn.everyaction.com/images/van/NGP/NGP59/1/108787/images/Tran%20for%20CA-45%20-%20Public%20Memo.pdf Tulchin Research]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by Tran's campaign}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://prod.cdn.everyaction.com/images/van/NGP/NGP59/1/108787/images/Tran%20for%20CA-45%20-%20Public%20Memo.pdf Tulchin Research]{{Efn-ua|name=tran|Poll sponsored by Tran's campaign}}
|November 13–19, 2023
|November 13–19, 2023
|500 (LV)
|500 (LV)
Line 286: Line 275:


=== Results ===
=== Results ===
[[File:2024CA45primary.svg|thumb|350px|Results by county and municipality
{{collapsible list
|title={{legend|#e27f7f|Steel}}
|{{legend|#ffb2b2|40–50%}}
|{{legend|#e27f7f|50–60%}}
}}
'''{{legend|#808080|No votes / no data}}'''
]]
{{Election box begin no change |title=2024 California's 45th congressional district primary<ref>{{cite web |title=U.S. House of Representatives District 45 - Districtwide Results |work=California Secretary of State |date=March 22, 2024 |access-date=March 24, 2024 |url=https://pp.electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/45}}</ref>}}
{{Election box begin no change |title=2024 California's 45th congressional district primary<ref>{{cite web |title=U.S. House of Representatives District 45 - Districtwide Results |work=California Secretary of State |date=March 22, 2024 |access-date=March 24, 2024 |url=https://pp.electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/45}}</ref>}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
Line 324: Line 321:
!As of
!As of
|-
|-
| align=left | [[Cook Political Report]]<ref name="Cook Initial">{{cite web | title=2024 House Race Ratings: Another Competitive Fight for Control
| align=left | [[Cook Political Report]]<ref name="Cook Initial">{{cite web |last=Covey |first=Erin |date=September 5, 2024 |title=House Ratings Changes: Several Races Move in Democrats’ Favor |url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-ratings-changes-several-races-move-democrats-favor |access-date=September 13, 2024 |website=[[The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter]] |language=en-US}}</ref>
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}
| url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/2024-house-race-ratings-another-competitive-fight-control|website= [[The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter]] | access-date=February 3, 2023 |date=February 2, 2023 |last=Wasserman |first=David |language=en-US}}</ref>
|September 6, 2024
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}
|February 2, 2023
|-
|-
| align=left | [[Inside Elections]]<ref name="IE Initial">{{cite web |title=First 2024 House Ratings |url=https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house |access-date=May 26, 2023 |website=[[Inside Elections]] |date=May 5, 2023 |last1=Gonzales |first1=Nathan L. |last2=Rubashkin |first2=Jacob |last3=Covey |first3=Erin |last4=Wascher |first4=Bradley |last5=Rothenberg |first5=Stuart}}</ref>
| align=left | [[Inside Elections]]<ref name="IE Initial">{{cite web |last1=Gonzales |first1=Nathan L. |last2=Rubashkin |first2=Jacob |date=October 18, 2024 |title=2024 Elections Coming Down to the Wire |url=https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/2024-elections-coming-down-to-the-wire |access-date=October 22, 2024 |website=[[Inside Elections]]}}</ref>
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}
|March 10, 2023
|October 18, 2024
|-
|-
| align=left | [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]]<ref name="Sabato Initial">{{cite web | title=Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up
| align=left | [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]]<ref name="Sabato">{{cite web | title=Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight
| url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/initial-house-ratings-battle-for-majority-starts-as-a-toss-up/|website=[[University of Virginia Center for Politics]] |publisher=[[Sabato's Crystal Ball]] | access-date=February 23, 2023 |last=Kondik |first=Kyle |date=February 23, 2023}}</ref>
| url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/five-house-ratings-changes-as-overall-battle-for-majority-remains-tight/|website=[[University of Virginia Center for Politics]] |publisher=[[Sabato's Crystal Ball]] | access-date=September 19, 2024 |last=Kondik |first=Kyle |date=September 19, 2024}}</ref>
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}
|February 23, 2023
|November 4, 2024
|-
|-
| align=left | [[Elections Daily]]<ref name="ED">{{Cite web |date=2023-08-09 |title=Election Ratings |url=https://elections-daily.com/election-ratings/ |access-date=2023-08-09 |website=Elections Daily |language=en-US}}</ref>
| align=left | [[Elections Daily]]<ref name="ED">{{Cite web |date=2023-08-09 |title=Election Ratings |url=https://elections-daily.com/election-ratings/ |access-date=2023-08-09 |website=Elections Daily |language=en-US}}</ref>
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}}
|June 8, 2023
|November 4, 2024
|-
|-
| align=left | [[CNalysis]]<ref name="CNalysis">{{cite web|url=https://projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/house|title=2024 House Forecast|date=November 20, 2023|access-date=November 20, 2023}}</ref>
| align=left | [[CNalysis]]<ref name="CNalysis">{{cite web|url=https://projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/house|title=2024 House Forecast|date=November 20, 2023|access-date=November 20, 2023}}</ref>
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|R}}
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D|Flip}}
|November 16, 2023
|November 4, 2024
|}
|}


Line 358: Line 354:
! Undecided
! Undecided
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24736630-ca-45-tulchin-research-for-derek-tran-june-2024 Tulchin Research]{{efn-ua|Poll sponsored by Tran's campaign}}
|style="text-align:left;"| [https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000192-b1eb-de97-a9f6-f1eb58f70000 Normington Petts (D)]{{efn-ua|name=DCCC}}
|October 13-15, 2024
|400 (V)
|±&nbsp;4.4%
|45%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%'''
|7%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"| [https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/10/17/kamala-harris-goes-baier-hunting-00184120 American Viewpoint (R)]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by Steel's campaign and the [[NRCC]]}}{{better source needed|date=October 2024}}
|October 8-10, 2024
|400 (V)
|±&nbsp;4.9%
|{{party shading/Republican}}|'''45%'''
|41%
|14%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"| [https://today.usc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/USC-CSU-California-Elections-and-Policy-Polls-8-US-House-Districts-Sept-14-21-2024-FINAL-09242024-release.pdf USC/CSU]
|September 14–21, 2024
|498 (LV)
|±&nbsp;4.4%
|46%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%'''
|5%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"| [https://x.com/jamesd0wns/status/1838926678602715250 Tulchin Research (D)]{{efn-ua|name=tran}}
|September 14–19, 2024
|600 (LV)
|±&nbsp;4.0%
|45%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''47%'''
|8%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25048483/ca-45-normington-petts-and-associates-d-for-the-dccc-aug-2024.pdf Normington Petts (D)]{{efn-ua|name=DCCC|Poll sponsored by the [[Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee]]}}
|July 29–31, 2024
|500 (LV)
|±&nbsp;4.4%
|'''47%'''
|'''47%'''
|6%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24736630-ca-45-tulchin-research-for-derek-tran-june-2024 Tulchin Research]{{efn-ua|name=tran}}
|May 23 – June 2, 2024
|May 23 – June 2, 2024
|600 (LV)
|600 (LV)
Line 367: Line 403:
|}
|}


=== Endorsements ===
=== Post-primary endorsements ===
Endorsements in '''bold''' were made after the primary election.

{{Endorsements box
{{Endorsements box
| title = Michelle Steel (R)
| title = Michelle Steel (R)
| list =
| list =
;Newspapers
;U.S. representatives
*''[[Orange County Register]]''<ref>{{cite web |title=It’s a no-brainer. Re-elect Michelle Steel to the House of Representatives. Endorsement: Michelle Steel for the 45th Congressional District |url=https://www.ocregister.com/2024/09/19/endorsement-michelle-steel-for-the-45th-congressional-district/ |website=OC Register |access-date=24 September 2024}}</ref>
*[[Elise Stefanik]], [[U.S. Representative]] from {{ushr|NY|21}} (2015–present) and chair of the [[House Republican Conference]] (2021–present)<ref name=StefanikSteel />

;Municipal officials
*[[Andrew Do]], [[Orange County Board of Supervisors|Orange County Supervisor]] from the 1st district (2015–present)<ref name=dosarmiento />

;Local officials
*[[Carl DeMaio]], former [[San Diego city council]]or (2008–2012)<ref name="reform" />

;Organizations
;Organizations
*[[Log Cabin Republicans]] PAC<ref name="logcabinendorsements">{{Cite web |title=2024 Endorsed Candidates |url=http://logcabin.org/2024-endorsed-candidates/ |access-date=2024-04-04 |website=Log Cabin Republicans |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[American Israel Public Affairs Committee]] (AIPAC)<ref name=aipac />
*[[California College Republicans]]<ref name="calicollegerependorse" />
*[[National Right to Life Committee|California ProLife Council]]<ref name="cplcendorse" />
*[[California Rifle and Pistol Association]]<ref name="calirifleandgunendorse" />
*[[Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association]] PAC<ref name=HJTAPAC />
*[[Huck PAC]]<ref name="HUCK" />
*[[International Franchise Association]]<ref name="Franchiseassociationendorsments" />
*'''[[Log Cabin Republicans]] PAC'''<ref name="logcabinendorsements">{{Cite web |title=2024 Endorsed Candidates |url=http://logcabin.org/2024-endorsed-candidates/ |access-date=2024-04-04 |website=Log Cabin Republicans |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Maggie's List]]<ref name="magies" />
*[[National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund]]<ref name="NRAcaliendorse" />
*[[Pro-Israel America]]<ref name="proisraelbiceendorse" />
*[[Republican Jewish Coalition]]<ref name="RJC" />

;Political parties
*[[California Republican Party]]<ref name="cagop" />
*Orange County [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party]]<ref name=OCGOP />
}}
}}
{{Endorsements box
{{Endorsements box
| title = Derek Tran (D)
| title = Derek Tran (D)
| list =
| list =
;Executive Branch Officials
*[[Robert Reich]], former [[U.S. Secretary of Labor]] (1993–1997)<ref>{{Cite news |title=Can Democrats Flip the House? |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UroTf4_Ilps |access-date=October 2, 2024 |work=[[Robert Reich]]}}</ref>
;U.S. representatives
;U.S. representatives
*[[Hakeem Jeffries]], [[House Minority Leader]] (2023–present) from {{ushr|NY|8|NY-08}} (2013–present)<ref>{{cite news |last1=Mascaro |first1=Lisa |title=Democrat Hakeem Jeffries stumps in California in a bid to reclaim House control |url=https://apnews.com/article/house-election-2024-california-hakeem-jeffries-da82b5dad17cc3f02bdb0fbceb8c1d43 |access-date=October 14, 2024 |work=Associated Press |date=October 14, 2024 |language=en}}</ref>
*[[Judy Chu]], {{ushr|CA|28|CA-28}} (2009–present)<ref name=judychu/>
*[[Zoe Lofgren]], {{ushr|CA|18|CA-18}} (1995–present)<ref name="lof01"/>
*[[Grace Meng]], [[U.S. representative]] from {{ushr|NY|6|NY-9}} (2013–present)<ref name="aspiregiltran"/>
*[[Seth Moulton]], [[U.S. representative]] from {{ushr|ma|6}} (2015–present)<ref name="SethMoultonPAC"/>
*[[Mark Takano]], {{ushr|CA|39|CA-39}} (2013–present)<ref name=judychu />


;Newspapers
;Municipal officials
*''[[Los Angeles Times]]''<ref>{{cite web |title=Endorsement: Rep. Michelle Steel needs to go. Derek Tran for the 45th Congressional District |url=https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-09-09/endorsement-gop-michelle-steel-needs-to-go-derek-tran-for-congress |website=[[Los Angeles Times]] |date=September 9, 2024 |access-date=September 26, 2024}}</ref>
*[[Vicente Sarmiento]], [[Orange County Board of Supervisors|Orange County Supervisor]] from the 2nd district (2023–present)<ref name=dosarmiento />


;Organizations
;Organizations
*[[Asian American Action Fund]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=Endorsements |url=https://www.aaafund.org/endorsements |access-date=2024-05-09 |website=AAAFund |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[AAPI Victory Fund]]<ref name="aapi01"/>
*[[Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee|DCCC]] Red to Blue<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.axios.com/2024/03/28/house-democrats-2024-republican-targets|title=Scoop: House Democrats grow their GOP target list for 2024|last=Solander|first=Andrew|date=March 28, 2024|access-date=March 28, 2024|website=[[Axios (website)|Axios]]}}</ref>
*'''[[Asian American Action Fund]]'''<ref>{{Cite web |title=Endorsements |url=https://www.aaafund.org/endorsements |access-date=2024-05-09 |website=AAAFund |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Democratic Majority for Israel]]<ref>{{cite tweet |title=Today, DMFI PAC announced its endorsement of fourteen pro-Israel candidates running for the Democratic nomination in key U.S. House and Senate general election races. These seats are critical to electing a Democratic majority in Congress this November. |author=Democratic Majority for Israel |author-link=Democratic Majority for Israel |user=DemMaj4Israel |number=1833130484768887163 |date=September 9, 2024 |language=en |access-date=September 9, 2024}}</ref>
*[[ASPIRE PAC]]<ref name="aspiregiltran" />
*[[End Citizens United]]<ref name="eculavtran">{{Cite web |date=2024-05-15 |title=End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Slate of No Corporate PAC Congressional Candidates |url=https://endcitizensunited.org/latest-news/press-releases/end-citizens-united-let-america-vote-endorses-slate-of-no-corporate-pac-congressional-candidates/ |access-date=2024-05-16 |website=End Citizens United {{!}} We the People, Not "We the Wealthy" |language=en-US}}</ref>
*'''[[Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee|DCCC]] Red to Blue'''<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.axios.com/2024/03/28/house-democrats-2024-republican-targets|title=Scoop: House Democrats grow their GOP target list for 2024|last=Solander|first=Andrew|date=March 28, 2024|access-date=March 28, 2024|website=[[Axios (website)|Axios]]}}</ref>
*'''[[End Citizens United]]'''<ref name="eculavtran">{{Cite web |date=2024-05-15 |title=End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Slate of No Corporate PAC Congressional Candidates |url=https://endcitizensunited.org/latest-news/press-releases/end-citizens-united-let-america-vote-endorses-slate-of-no-corporate-pac-congressional-candidates/ |access-date=2024-05-16 |website=End Citizens United {{!}} We the People, Not "We the Wealthy" |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Everytown for Gun Safety]]<ref name="everytown926">{{cite web |title=Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Announces New Round of Federal Endorsements |url=https://www.everytown.org/press/everytown-for-gun-safety-action-fund-announces-new-round-of-federal-endorsements/ |website=Everytown for Gun Safety |access-date=September 27, 2024 |language=en-us |date=September 26, 2024}}</ref>
*'''[[Jewish Democratic Council of America]]'''<ref name="jdjoshendorse">{{Cite web |title=Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel |url=https://jewishdems.org/press_release/jewish-dems-endorse-more-house-senate-and-gubernatorial-candidates/ |access-date=2024-05-10 |website=Jewish Democratic Council of America |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Jewish Democratic Council of America]]<ref name="jdjoshendorse">{{Cite web |title=Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel |url=https://jewishdems.org/press_release/jewish-dems-endorse-more-house-senate-and-gubernatorial-candidates/ |access-date=2024-05-10 |website=Jewish Democratic Council of America |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Reproductive Freedom for All]]<ref name=":luzrffa">{{Cite web |date=2024-04-09 |title=Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of California Champions for Election to U.S. House |url=https://reproductivefreedomforall.org/news/reproductive-freedom-for-all-endorses-slate-of-california-champions-for-election-to-u-s-house-2/ |access-date=2024-04-11 |website=Reproductive Freedom for All |language=en-US}}</ref>
*'''[[Let America Vote]]'''<ref name="eculavtran" />
*[[New Politics (political non-profit)|New Politics]]<ref name=LiberalOC/>
*[[NewDem Action Fund]]<ref name="newdem01"/>
*'''[[Reproductive Freedom for All]]'''<ref name=":luzrffa">{{Cite web |date=2024-04-09 |title=Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of California Champions for Election to U.S. House |url=https://reproductivefreedomforall.org/news/reproductive-freedom-for-all-endorses-slate-of-california-champions-for-election-to-u-s-house-2/ |access-date=2024-04-11 |website=Reproductive Freedom for All |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[VoteVets]]<ref name="vv01"/>
}}
}}


=== Results ===
=== Results ===
{{Election box begin |title=2024 California's 45th congressional district election}}
{{Election box begin |title=2024 California's 45th congressional district election<ref>{{cite news |title=California 45th Congressional District Election Results |work=[[The New York Times]] |date=November 5, 2024 |access-date=November 10, 2024 |url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-california-us-house-45.html}}</ref>}}
{{Election box candidate with party link
{{Election box candidate with party link
|party = Republican Party (United States)
|party = Republican Party (United States)
|candidate = [[Michelle Steel]] (incumbent)
|candidate = [[Michelle Steel]] (incumbent)
|votes =
|votes = 137,696
|percentage =
|percentage = 51.3%
|change =
|change =
}}{{Election box candidate with party link
}}{{Election box candidate with party link
|party = Democratic Party (United States)
|party = Democratic Party (United States)
|candidate = Derek Tran
|candidate = Derek Tran
|votes =
|votes = 130,795
|percentage =
|percentage = 48.7%
|change =
|change =
}}{{Election box total
}}{{Election box total
|votes =
|votes = 268,491
|percentage =
|percentage = 100.0%
}}{{Election box end}}
}}{{Election box end}}


Line 456: Line 462:
==External links==
==External links==
;Official campaign websites
;Official campaign websites
*[https://www.cheyennehunt.com/ Cheyenne Hunt (D) for Congress]
*[https://www.votekimnguyen.com/ Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D) for Congress]
*[https://www.paiforcongress.com/ Aditya Pai (D) for Congress]
*[https://michellesteelca.com/ Michelle Steel (R) for Congress]
*[https://michellesteelca.com/ Michelle Steel (R) for Congress]
*[https://www.derektranforcongress.com/ Derek Tran (D) for Congress]
*[https://www.derektranforcongress.com/ Derek Tran (D) for Congress]

Revision as of 04:38, 14 November 2024

For broader coverage of this topic, see California's 45th congressional district.

2024 California's 45th congressional district election
← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
Reporting
93%
as of Nov. 13, 5:24 PM PST
 
Candidate Michelle Steel Derek Tran
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 151,395 151,046
Percentage 50.1% 49.9%
U.S. Representative before election

Michelle Steel
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

TBD

Elections in California
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State government
Executive
Governor
Lieutenant governor
Attorney general
Secretary of state
Treasurer
Controller
Insurance commissioner
Superintendent
Board of equalization
Legislature
Senate
Assembly
Judiciary
Court of appeals
Elections by year
State propositions
1910–1919
1960–1969
1970–1979
1980–1989
1990–1999
2000–2009
2010–2019
2020–2029
Full list
Los Angeles County
Los Angeles County
Board of supervisors
Ballot measures
  • 1980
  • 2008
  • 2012
  • 2016
Elections
Los Angeles
Mayor
City attorney
Ballot measures
  • 1986
  • 2017
Elections
Long Beach
Mayor
Orange County
Orange County
Board of supervisors
District attorney
Anaheim
Mayor
Irvine
Mayor
Costa Mesa
Municipal
Sacramento
Mayor
San Diego County
San Diego County
Board of supervisors
San Diego
Mayor
City attorney
City council
San Francisco
Mayor
District attorney
Board of supervisors
Board of education
Ballot measures
  • 2024
Elections
San Jose
Mayor
Other localities
Bakersfield

Mayoral elections:

Fresno

Mayoral elections:

Oakland

Mayoral elections:

Riverside

Mayoral elections:

San Bernardino

Mayoral elections:

Stockton

Mayoral elections:

The 2024 California's 45th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 45th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries.

Based in Orange County and Los Angeles County, the 45th district contains all of Fountain Valley, Westminster, Garden Grove, Cypress, Buena Park, Cerritos, Artesia, La Palma, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor, as well as portions of Brea, Lakewood, Fullerton, and Yorba Linda.[1] One-third of all registered voters in the district are Asian American, with Vietnamese Americans alone comprising 16% of the district's voters.[2]

The incumbent is Republican Michelle Steel, who was re-elected with 52.4% of the vote in 2022. Steel, who is Korean American, was first elected in 2020, unseating incumbent Democrat Harley Rouda. She previously served as a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors and the California State Board of Equalization.

The race is expected to be highly competitive as it is a purple suburban district. Both House Democrats and House Republicans have listed California's 45th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election.[3][4] Joe Biden carried this district by a 6% margin in the 2020 presidential election.[5] Steel is one of 17 House Republicans representing a Biden-won district.[6] At the local level, however, the 45th district has trended Republican, voting for Republicans in every state race in 2022.[7]

Primary election

Candidates

Kim Nguyen-Penaloza

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Cheyenne Hunt (D)
Individuals
Organizations
Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D)
U.S. representatives
State senators
State assemblymembers
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Party chapters
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Michelle Steel (R)
U.S. representatives
Municipal officials
Local officials
Organizations
Party chapters
Derek Tran (D)
U.S. representatives
Municipal officials
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Michelle Steel (R) $8,971,455[a] $5,675,115 $3,752,876
Cheyenne Hunt (D) $389,534[b] $254,544 $134,990
Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D) $359,909 $357,405 $2,503
Aditya Pai (D) $304,926[c] $276,752 $10,396
Derek Tran (D) $4,380,401 $3,423,836 $956,564
Source: Federal Election Commission[66]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Cheyenne
Hunt (D) 		Kim Nguyen-
Penaloza (D) 		Aditya
Pai (D) 		Michelle
Steel (R) 		Derek
Tran (D) 		Other Undecided
RMG Research[A] November 14–19, 2023 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 4% 10% 1% 28% – 9%[e] 47%
Tulchin Research[B] November 13–19, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.9% 6% 10% 2% 39% 11% – 32%

Results

Results by county and municipality
  Steel
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  No votes / no data
2024 California's 45th congressional district primary[67]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Michelle Steel (incumbent) 78,020 54.9
Democratic Derek Tran 22,544 15.9
Democratic Kim Nguyen-Penaloza 22,178 15.6
Democratic Cheyenne Hunt 11,971 8.4
Democratic Aditya Pai 7,398 5.2
Total votes 142,111 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[68] Tossup September 6, 2024
Inside Elections[69] Tossup October 18, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[70] Lean R November 4, 2024
Elections Daily[71] Lean R November 4, 2024
CNalysis[72] Tilt D (flip) November 4, 2024

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Michelle
Steel (R) 		Derek
Tran (D) 		Undecided
Normington Petts (D)[C] October 13-15, 2024 400 (V) ± 4.4% 45% 48% 7%
American Viewpoint (R)[D][better source needed] October 8-10, 2024 400 (V) ± 4.9% 45% 41% 14%
USC/CSU September 14–21, 2024 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 48% 5%
Tulchin Research (D)[B] September 14–19, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% 8%
Normington Petts (D)[C] July 29–31, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 6%
Tulchin Research[B] May 23 – June 2, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 41% 17%

Post-primary endorsements

Michelle Steel (R)
Newspapers
Organizations
Derek Tran (D)
Executive Branch Officials
U.S. representatives
Newspapers
Organizations

Results

2024 California's 45th congressional district election[85]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Michelle Steel (incumbent) 137,696 51.3%
Democratic Derek Tran 130,795 48.7%
Total votes 268,491 100.0%

Notes

  1. ^ $1,910,000 of this total was self-funded by Steel
  2. ^ $107,000 of this total was self-funded by Hunt
  3. ^ $33,833 of this total was self-funded by Pai
  4. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 8%; "Would not vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits
  2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Tran's campaign
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Steel's campaign and the NRCC

References

  1. ^ "Our District". United States House of Representatives Page of Congresswoman Steel. January 3, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  2. ^ Chan, Melissa (November 9, 2022). "Why a Southern California congressional race hinges on Asian American voters". NPR. The Morning Edition. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  3. ^ Solender, Andrew (November 22, 2022). "House Democrats eye lost ground in 2024". Axios. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  4. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (February 3, 2023). "McCarthy launches 'Protect the House 2024' as he aims to expand the GOP majority". Fox News. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  5. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts". Daily Kos Elections. September 29, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  6. ^ Kondik, Kyle (December 1, 2022). "The New Crossover Members of the House". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  7. ^ "Statement of Vote November 8, 2022 – General Election" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  8. ^ a b Kang, Hanna (April 4, 2023). "25-year-old OC TikTok influencer could become the next Gen Z member of Congress". The Orange County Register. Lance Trover, Steel's campaign manager, said, 'Southern California voters know her record of fighting for lower taxes, standing up to the Chinese Communist Party and ensuring everyone has a shot at the American dream,' maintaining she will be reelected in 2024.
  9. ^ Marans, Daniel (October 2, 2023). "Democrat Derek Tran Announces Bid For Key California House Seat". Huffington Post. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  10. ^ Singer, Jeff (January 25, 2023). "Orange County Democrat launches bid to beat Rep. Michelle Steel in competitive seat Biden carried". The Daily Kos. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  11. ^ Kang, Hanna (April 10, 2023). "Third Democrat jumps into race in attempt to flip Michelle Steel's seat in 2024". The Orange County Register. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  12. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (October 13, 2023). "CA-45 CANDIDATE JIMMY PHAM SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN FOR CONGRESS". The Liberal OC. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
  13. ^ a b Kang, Hanna (October 20, 2023). "Jimmy Pham launches Assembly campaign days after dropping out of congressional race". The Orange County Register. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  14. ^ Kang, Hanna (May 26, 2023). "The race for Rep. Katie Porter's open congressional seat is growing". The Orange County Register. Retrieved May 28, 2023.
  15. ^ a b Klein, Howie (February 3, 2024). "Endorsement Alert In Orange County: Cheyenne Hunt". Blue America. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  16. ^ "Patriotic Millionaires Endorse First Candidates of 2024". Patriotic Millionaires. February 5, 2024. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  17. ^ a b Chmielewski, Dan (September 6, 2023). "Congressman Lou Correa Endorses Kim Nguyen for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  18. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (May 15, 2023). "And Endorsements are Coming In". The Liberal OC. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  19. ^ a b "ASPIRE PAC Announces Two Congressional Endorsements". ASPIRE PAC. August 21, 2023. Retrieved August 28, 2023.
  20. ^ a b c Chmielewski, Dan (June 29, 2023). "Kim Nguyen gets endorsed by Rep. Katie Porter". The Liberal OC. Retrieved July 14, 2023.
  21. ^ a b Castaneda, Diana (May 23, 2023). "CHC BOLD PAC Announces New Endorsements for 2024". CHC BOLD PAC. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  22. ^ a b c d Mill, Sean (January 30, 2023). "Assemblywoman Quirk-Silva and CA-45 Leaders endorse Kim Bernice Nguyen for Congress". New Santa Ana. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  23. ^ a b c d e f g h "Los Angeles/Orange County Building and Construction Trades Council endorses Kim Bernice Nguyen for Congress". Orange County Breeze. March 30, 2023. Archived from the original on March 31, 2023. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  24. ^ a b c d e f Chmielewski, Dan (October 3, 2023). "National Women's Political Caucus (NWPC) Endorses Kim Nguyen for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved October 4, 2023.
  25. ^ a b c Chmielewski, Dan (November 30, 2023). "California Teachers and National Education Association Endorse Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  26. ^ "Primary Endorsements" (PDF). California Democratic Party. November 19, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  27. ^ "Endorsed Candidates | 2024 Presidential Primary Election". Los Angeles County Democratic Party. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  28. ^ a b c d Chmielewski, Dan (February 21, 2024). "UNITE HERE Local 11 Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  29. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (February 20, 2024). "California Federation of Teachers and American Federation of Teachers Endorse Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  30. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (December 6, 2023). "2.2 Million Member Strong California Labor Federation Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  31. ^ "OCLF COPE Recommendations". Orange County Labor Federation. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  32. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (February 5, 2024). "Communication Workers of America Local 9150 Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  33. ^ "Voting Guide 2024 – IBEW". February 5, 2024. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  34. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (November 30, 2023). "Laborers' International Union of North America (LIUNA) Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  35. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (October 6, 2023). "Service Employees International Union (SEIU) California Endorses Kim Nguyen for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved October 7, 2023.
  36. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (February 14, 2024). "Western States Regional Council of Carpenters Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  37. ^ "Endorsement: Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for the 45th Congressional District". Los Angeles Times. January 29, 2024. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  38. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (December 5, 2023). "California Young Democrats (CYD) Endorse Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  39. ^ Orange County Young Democrats [@OCYD] (March 30, 2023). "Join us tonight to support former OCYD Executive Board Member @votekimnguyen!" (Tweet). Retrieved March 31, 2023 – via Twitter.
  40. ^ College Democrats of CSUF [@csufdemocrats] (February 13, 2024). "We have an endorsement: Kim Nguyen-Penaloza". Instagram. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  41. ^ "Election Center". Equality California. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  42. ^ Latino Victory [@latinovictoryus] (February 8, 2024). "We are proud to support Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress. Kim's experience and community leadership are unparalleled" (Tweet). Retrieved February 11, 2024 – via Twitter.
  43. ^ "Candidates: 2024 PODER PAC Endorsements". PODER PAC. Retrieved December 4, 2023.
  44. ^ "House GOP Conference Chair Refuses to Commit to Certifying the 2024 Election – Will Michelle Steel and Young Kim?". DCCC. January 10, 2024. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  45. ^ a b Chmielewski, Dan (February 14, 2024). "OC Supervisor Vincente Sarmiento Endorses Derek Tran". The Liberal OC. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  46. ^ DeMaio, Carl (August 22, 2023). "Reform California Releases Its First Round of Voter Guide Endorsements for the 2024 Election". Reform California. Archived from the original on August 29, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
  47. ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  48. ^ "CA Statewide Guide". www.cacollegegop.org. Retrieved February 10, 2024.
  49. ^ "2024 Voter Guides". californiaprolife.org. Retrieved February 20, 2024.
  50. ^ "CRPA PAC Endorsed Federal Candidates". CRPA. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  51. ^ "Endorsements by the HJTA PAC". Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  52. ^ "IFA Endorses Congressional Candidates Ahead of Primary Elections | International Franchise Association". www.franchise.org. February 28, 2024. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  53. ^ Holt, Matt (June 15, 2023). "The Messenger: A PAC Dedicated to Electing GOP Women Issues First Wave of 2024 Endorsements (Exclusive)". The Messenger via Maggie's List. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  54. ^ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | California". NRA-PVF. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  55. ^ "Pro-Israel America Announces Fourteen New Candidate Endorsements". Pro Israel America. February 15, 2024. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  56. ^ "RJC Announces 11 House Endorsements". Republican Jewish Coalition. Retrieved December 24, 2023.
  57. ^ "CAGOP Releases Several Endorsements for 2024 Election". California Republican Party. Retrieved July 23, 2023.
  58. ^ "Republican Party of Orange County endorses Rep. Michelle Steel for reelection". Orange County Breeze. February 23, 2023. Archived from the original on April 22, 2023. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  59. ^ a b Chmielewski, Dan (November 30, 2023). "Rep. Judy Chu Endorses Derek Tran for CA-45". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  60. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (November 18, 2023). "Rep. Zoe Lofgren Endorses Derek Tran for CA-45". The Liberal OC. Retrieved November 24, 2023.
  61. ^ a b "ASPIRE PAC Announces Two Additional Endorsements | aspirepac.org". aspirepac.org. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  62. ^ "Candidates". Serve America PAC. Retrieved January 2, 2024.
  63. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". Retrieved February 20, 2024.
  64. ^ "NewDem Action Fund Announces Latest Red-to-Blue Candidate Endorsement Slate for 2024". NewDem Action Fund. December 12, 2023. Archived from the original on December 12, 2023. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
  65. ^ "VoteVets Endorses Derek Tran for CA-45". Derek Tran for Congress. December 1, 2023. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  66. ^ "2024 Election United States House - California - District 45 - FEC". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 1, 2024.
  67. ^ "U.S. House of Representatives District 45 - Districtwide Results". California Secretary of State. March 22, 2024. Retrieved March 24, 2024.
  68. ^ Covey, Erin (September 5, 2024). "House Ratings Changes: Several Races Move in Democrats' Favor". The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  69. ^ Gonzales, Nathan L.; Rubashkin, Jacob (October 18, 2024). "2024 Elections Coming Down to the Wire". Inside Elections. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  70. ^ Kondik, Kyle (September 19, 2024). "Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  71. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 9, 2023. Retrieved August 9, 2023.
  72. ^ "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  73. ^ "It's a no-brainer. Re-elect Michelle Steel to the House of Representatives. Endorsement: Michelle Steel for the 45th Congressional District". OC Register. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  74. ^ "2024 Endorsed Candidates". Log Cabin Republicans. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
  75. ^ "Can Democrats Flip the House?". Robert Reich. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  76. ^ Mascaro, Lisa (October 14, 2024). "Democrat Hakeem Jeffries stumps in California in a bid to reclaim House control". Associated Press. Retrieved October 14, 2024.
  77. ^ "Endorsement: Rep. Michelle Steel needs to go. Derek Tran for the 45th Congressional District". Los Angeles Times. September 9, 2024. Retrieved September 26, 2024.
  78. ^ "Endorsements". AAAFund. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  79. ^ Solander, Andrew (March 28, 2024). "Scoop: House Democrats grow their GOP target list for 2024". Axios. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  80. ^ Democratic Majority for Israel [@DemMaj4Israel] (September 9, 2024). "Today, DMFI PAC announced its endorsement of fourteen pro-Israel candidates running for the Democratic nomination in key U.S. House and Senate general election races. These seats are critical to electing a Democratic majority in Congress this November" (Tweet). Retrieved September 9, 2024 – via Twitter.
  81. ^ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Slate of No Corporate PAC Congressional Candidates". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". May 15, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  82. ^ "Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Announces New Round of Federal Endorsements". Everytown for Gun Safety. September 26, 2024. Retrieved September 27, 2024.
  83. ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  84. ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of California Champions for Election to U.S. House". Reproductive Freedom for All. April 9, 2024. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  85. ^ "California 45th Congressional District Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 10, 2024.
Official campaign websites
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2024_California%27s_45th_congressional_district_election&oldid=1257289465"