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2016 Indiana gubernatorial election

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2016 Indiana gubernatorial election

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
 
Nominee Eric Holcomb John R. Gregg
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Suzanne Crouch Christina Hale
Popular vote 1,397,396 1,235,503
Percentage 51.38% 45.42%

Holcomb:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Gregg:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data

Governor before election

Mike Pence
Republican

Elected Governor

Eric Holcomb
Republican

The 2016 Indiana gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Indiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on May 3, 2016. Republican lieutenant governor Eric Holcomb won the race with 51.4% of the vote.

Incumbent Republican governor Mike Pence was running for reelection to a second term in office until July 15, 2016, when then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump selected Pence as his vice presidential running mate.[1] As Pence was barred by Indiana law from simultaneously running for both offices, he subsequently withdrew from the gubernatorial election.[2] Pence went on to be elected Vice President of the United States. He was replaced on the ballot for governor by his former running mate, incumbent lieutenant governor Eric Holcomb, who was selected by the Indiana Republican State Committee as the nominee on July 26, 2016.[3] Holcomb later selected State Auditor Suzanne Crouch on August 1, 2016, to be his running mate as the nomination for lieutenant governor was made vacant by the decision of Holcomb to seek the gubernatorial nomination; she was confirmed at a subsequent meeting of the Indiana Republican State Committee later that day.[3][4]

John Gregg, the former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives, was the Democratic nominee. Gregg previously ran for Governor in 2012, but was defeated by Pence.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Results

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Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Pence (incumbent) 815,699 100.00%
Total votes 815,699 100.00%

Republican State Committee selection

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On July 15, 2016, Donald Trump announced that Pence would be his running mate as vice president in the 2016 presidential election. Under Indiana law, Pence was unable to run for both governor and vice president simultaneously; he therefore withdrew from the gubernatorial election, creating a vacancy on the Republican ticket. On July 26, the chairman of the Indiana Republican Party, Jeff Cardwell, announced that Eric Holcomb had been nominated by the Indiana Republican State Committee to replace Pence on the ballot for governor. The vote totals were not released. Holcomb later selected Suzanne Crouch on August 1, 2016, to be his running mate as the nomination for lieutenant governor was made vacant by the decision of Holcomb to seek the gubernatorial nomination; she was then confirmed by the Committee at a meeting later that day.[3][4]

Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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Endorsements

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John Gregg
Politicians
Organizations

Results

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Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John R. Gregg 547,375 100.00
Total votes 547,375 100.00

Libertarian Party convention

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Rex Bell, businessman[27]
  • Jim Wallace[27]

Nominated

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  • Rex Bell, businessman[27]
    • Running mate: Karl Tatgenhorst

General election

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Candidates

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Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[28] Tossup August 12, 2016
Daily Kos[29] Tossup November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[30] Tilt R November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] Lean D (flip) November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[32] Tossup November 1, 2016
Governing[33] Tossup October 27, 2016

Polling

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Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Eric
Holcomb (R)
John
Gregg (D)
Other/Undecided
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics October 27 – November 3, 2016 November 3, 2016 40.7% 44.0% 15.3% Gregg +3.3%
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Eric
Holcomb (R)
John
Gregg (D)
Rex
Bell (L)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,700 ± 4.6% 47% 49% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 1,383 ± 4.6% 46% 49% 5%
WTHR/Howey November 1–3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 42% 42% 5% 11%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 923 ± 4.6% 47% 47% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 790 ± 4.6% 48% 47% 5%
Gravis Marketing October 30 – November 1, 2016 399 ± 4.9% 38% 42% 4% 16%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 638 ± 4.6% 49% 47% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 674 ± 4.6% 47% 48% 5%
Monmouth University October 27–30, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 42% 48% 4% 5%
Gravis Marketing October 22–24, 2016 596 ± 2.3% 38% 42% 4% 16%
Ball State University (PSRAI) October 10–16, 2016 544 ± 4.8% 43% 48%
Monmouth University October 11–13, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 38% 50% 4% 7%
BK Strategies (R-Holcomb) October 11–13, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 42% 42% 3% 13%
WTHR/Howey[permanent dead link] October 3–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 39% 41% 5% 15%
WTHR/Howey Archived October 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 6–8, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 35% 40% 6% 19%
Monmouth University August 13–16, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 42% 41% 4% 13%
Expedition Strategies (D-Gregg) August 1–3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 39% 46% 6% 9%
The Tarrance Group July 20–21, 2016 503 ± 4.4% 34% 42% 24%
Hypothetical polling
with Mike Pence
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mike
Pence (R)
John
Gregg (D)
Other Undecided
Bellwether Research May 11–15, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 40% 36% 24%
WTHR/Howey April 18–21, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 49% 45% 1% 5%
Bellwether Research May 29–June 3, 2015 800 ± 3.5% 40% 41% 19%
Bellwether Research Archived April 16, 2015, at the Wayback Machine April 12–14, 2015 607 ± 4.0% 43% 37% 21%
GQR Research April 7–9, 2015 500 ± 4.4% 47% 47% 6%
with Susan Brooks
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Susan
Brooks (R)
John
Gregg (D)
Other Undecided
The Tarrance Group July 20–21, 2016 503 ± 4.4% 36% 41% 23%
with Todd Rokita
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Rokita (R)
John
Gregg (D)
Other Undecided
The Tarrance Group July 20–21, 2016 503 ± 4.4% 36% 41% 23%
Public Opinion Strategies July 16–18, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 45% 43% 12%
with Baron Hill
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mike
Pence (R)
Baron
Hill (D)
Undecided
Bellwether Research Archived April 16, 2015, at the Wayback Machine April 12–14, 2015 607 ± 4% 43% 36% 21%
with Glenda Ritz
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mike
Pence (R)
Glenda
Ritz (D)
Other Undecided
Bellwether Research May 29–June 3, 2015 800 ± 3.5% 42% 42% 16%
Bellwether Research Archived April 16, 2015, at the Wayback Machine April 12–14, 2015 607 ± 4% 42% 39% 18%

Results

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Holcomb won with 51.4% of the votes, with Gregg taking 45.4%, and Libertarian Rex Bell finishing with 3.2%.[34]

2016 Indiana gubernatorial election[35]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Eric Holcomb/Suzanne Crouch 1,397,396 51.38% +1.89%
Democratic John R. Gregg/Christina Hale 1,235,503 45.42% −1.14%
Libertarian Rex Bell 87,025 3.20% −0.75%
Write-in 44 0.00% 0.00%
Total votes 2,719,968 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Holcomb won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[36]

District Holcomb Gregg Representative
1st 36% 62% Pete Visclosky
2nd 53% 43% Jackie Walorski
3rd 60% 37% Marlin Stutzman
4th 58% 39% Todd Rokita
5th 52% 45% Susan Brooks
6th 59% 36% Luke Messer
7th 34% 63% André Carson
8th 52% 45% Larry Bucshon
9th 56% 41% Todd Young

Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

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  1. ^ a b "Donald Trump selects Mike Pence as VP". Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  2. ^ "Mike Pence officially withdraws from Indiana governor's race". WDRB.com. July 15, 2016. Archived from the original on November 10, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  3. ^ a b c Eason, Brian; Tony, Cook; Briggs, James (July 26, 2016). "Indiana GOP panel nominates Eric Holcomb for governor". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved July 26, 2016.
  4. ^ a b c "Holcomb introduces Crouch as his running mate in governor's race". Fox 59. August 1, 2016. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
  5. ^ Weidenbener, Lesley (April 22, 2015). "Brooks to run for House reelection, not Senate". The Statehouse File. Retrieved April 22, 2015.
  6. ^ a b Joseph, Cameron (March 24, 2015). "Coats retirement in Indiana shakes up 2016 battle for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  7. ^ a b Brian Howey (January 30, 2015). "If Sen. Coates doesn't run, who does?". kokomoperspective.com. Retrieved February 3, 2015.[permanent dead link]
  8. ^ Howey, Brian (May 26, 2015). "A fascinating U.S. Senate race is setting up". News and Tribune. Retrieved June 4, 2015.
  9. ^ a b "Indiana Primary Election, May 3, 2016". Pennsylvania Secretary of State. Retrieved July 20, 2016.
  10. ^ a b c d e f "Holcomb, Rokita, Brooks in; Bosma out of race to be GOP gubernatorial nominee". Indiana Business Journal. July 15, 2016. Archived from the original on July 16, 2016. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  11. ^ Osowski, Zach (July 19, 2016). "Tomes says despite odds, "It's in my heart to run" for governor". Evansville Courier & Press. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  12. ^ LoBianco, Tom (April 30, 2015). "Source: Democrat John Gregg set to announce governor bid". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved April 30, 2015.
  13. ^ "John Gregg Announces Rep. Christina Hale as Running Mate | News - Indiana Public Media". Archived from the original on May 26, 2016. Retrieved May 25, 2016.
  14. ^ Cook, Tony; Schneider, Chelsea (August 7, 2015). "Glenda Ritz drops out of governor's race". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved August 7, 2015.
  15. ^ Carden, Dan (August 17, 2015). "Tallian drops out of governor's race". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved August 17, 2015.
  16. ^ a b "Bayh not running for governor in 2016". nwi.com. September 13, 2014. Retrieved October 26, 2014.
  17. ^ Blasko, Erin (February 25, 2014). "Buttigieg: 'Zero interest' in governor's seat". South Bend Tribune. Retrieved February 23, 2015.
  18. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al "36 Indiana Mayors Endorse John Gregg for Governor". Gregg for Governor. August 13, 2015. Archived from the original on August 16, 2015. Retrieved August 14, 2015.
  19. ^ Spehler, Dan (February 13, 2015). "Potential candidate for governor talks education, healthcare". WXIN. Retrieved February 20, 2015.
  20. ^ Hayden, Maureen (December 3, 2014). "Former Congressman Hill mulls run for governor". News and Tribune. Retrieved December 3, 2014.
  21. ^ Cahn, Emily (May 15, 2015). "Ousted Democrat Announces Indiana Senate Bid". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 17, 2015. Retrieved May 15, 2015.
  22. ^ Carden, Dan (May 27, 2015). "Pelath rules out run for governor". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved May 28, 2015.
  23. ^ Schneider, Chelsea (August 7, 2015). "Long-time Bayh aide mulling run for governor". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved August 7, 2015.
  24. ^ Schneider, Chelsea (September 21, 2015). "Tom Sugar will not run for governor". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved September 21, 2015.
  25. ^ "Former Indiana governor candidate Glenda Ritz lends support to John Gregg". The News-Sentinel. Associated Press. August 11, 2015. Retrieved August 17, 2015.[dead link]
  26. ^ "Indiana State AFL-CIO Endorses John Gregg for Governor". Indiana State AFL-CIO. August 17, 2015. Archived from the original on August 22, 2015. Retrieved August 17, 2015.
  27. ^ a b c Staff (April 28, 2016). "Libertarian Party of Indiana nominates Rex Bell for Governor". Greensburg Daily News. Retrieved May 13, 2016.
  28. ^ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  29. ^ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  30. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  31. ^ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  32. ^ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  33. ^ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  34. ^ Indiana Secretary of State Election Results
  35. ^ "Indiana Secretary of State Election Results". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 4, 2017.
  36. ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.
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Official campaign websites (archived)