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Next Extremaduran regional election

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Next Extremaduran regional election

← 2023 No later than 27 June 2027

All 65 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura
33 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Miguel Ángel Gallardo María Guardiola Ángel Pelayo
Party PSOE PP Vox
Leader since 23 March 2024 16 July 2022 1 February 2023
Leader's seat Badajoz Cáceres Badajoz
Last election 28 seats, 39.9% 28 seats, 38.8% 5 seats, 8.1%
Current seats 28 28 5
Seats needed Green arrow up5 Green arrow up5 Green arrow up28

 
Leader Irene de Miguel
Party Podemos–IU–AV
Leader since 27 November 2018
Leader's seat Cáceres
Last election 4 seats, 6.0%
Current seats 4
Seats needed Green arrow up29

Incumbent President

María Guardiola
PP



The next Extremaduran regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 27 June 2027, to elect the 12th Assembly of the autonomous community of Extremadura. All 65 seats in the Assembly will be up for election.

Overview

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Electoral system

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The Assembly of Extremadura is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Extremadura, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Extremaduran Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Extremadurans abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 65 members of the Assembly of Extremadura are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Alternatively, parties failing to reach the threshold in one of the constituencies are also entitled to enter the seat distribution as long as they run candidates in both districts and reach five percent regionally. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[1][3]

Election date

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The term of the Assembly of Extremadura expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree must be published in the DOE no later than 4 May 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 27 June 2027.[1][3][4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

Parliamentary composition

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The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups at the present time.

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 28 28
People's Parliamentary Group PP 28 28
Vox Parliamentary Group Vox 5 5
United for Extremadura
Parliamentary Group
IU 3 4
Podemos 1

Parties and candidates

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The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least two percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances
Candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE Miguel Ángel Gallardo Social democracy 39.90% 28 ☒N [5]
PP
List
María Guardiola Conservatism
Christian democracy
38.78% 28 checkY
Vox
List
Ángel Pelayo Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism
8.13% 5 ☒N
Podemos–
IU–AV
Irene de Miguel Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism
6.01% 4 ☒N

Opinion polls

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The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.

Voting intention estimates

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The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSOE PP Vox
Podemos
JUEx CS Sumar Lead
NC Report/La Razón[p 1] 18–23 Jul 2024 1,000 72.1 39.4
29
43.5
32
6.8
4
2.4
0
2.9
0
4.1
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 46.9 36.6
(27)
41.4
(31)
10.0
(7)
2.2
(0)
0.5
(0)
0.5
(0)
2.5
(0)
4.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 2] 25 Nov–23 Dec 2023 1,295 ? 42.5
31
36.7
27
9.0
6
0.9
0
2.0
0
1.0
0
5.0
1
5.8
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 71.7 39.1
(27)
37.9
(25)
13.6
(9)
[a] 6.9
(4)
1.2
PSOE[p 3] 22 Jun 2023 ? ? ?
30
?
28
?
3/4
?
3/4
?
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4] 28 May–22 Jun 2023 1,000 ? 42.2
30
37.0
27
8.5
5
5.2
3
2.7
0
0.9
0
5.2
Data10/OKDiario[p 5] 21 Jun 2023 1,500 65.8 42.9
31
41.1
30
6.6
4
4.6
0
1.8
2023 regional election 28 May 2023 70.4 39.9
28
38.8
28
8.1
5
6.0
4
2.5
0
0.9
0
1.1

Notes

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  1. ^ Within Sumar.

References

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Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "El PP rompe el empate con el PSOE en Extremadura y se queda a un escaño de la mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 August 2024.
  2. ^ "ElectoPanel Extremadura (26dic): la división en la izquierda beneficia a Guardiola". Electomanía (in Spanish). 26 December 2023.
  3. ^ "El PSOE ve la repetición electoral en Extremadura como una baza para "resucitar" tras el 23-J". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 22 June 2023.
  4. ^ "ElectoPanel Extremadura (24J): La izquierda ganaría la Junta en una repetición". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 June 2023.
  5. ^ "La repetición de elecciones no cambia nada: Vara volverá a ganar y el PP necesitaría a Vox para gobernar". OKDiario (in Spanish). 22 June 2023.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 1/2011, de 28 de enero, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad Autónoma de Extremadura (Organic Law 1) (in Spanish). 28 January 2011. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  2. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ^ a b c Ley 2/1987, de 16 de marzo, de Elecciones a la Asamblea de Extremadura (Law 2) (in Spanish). 16 March 1987. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  4. ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  5. ^ Barrena, José Emiliano (2 March 2024). "Miguel Ángel Gallardo, elegido sucesor de Fernández Vara al frente del PSOE extremeño". El País (in Spanish). Mérida. Retrieved 2 August 2024.