Maximas Avenidas

Ejemplo de Clculo de Mximas Avenidas Mediante los Mtodos Estadsticos
(Uso de los Factores de Frecuencia)

Informacin de Descargas Mximas para 28 aos de registro
Ao
Q
m3/s
Q
m3/s
Posicin
m
P >= Q (%)
m/(N+1)
T (aos)
(N+1)/m
Y=Log Q
1
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
2230.0
3220.0
2246.0
1804.0
2737.0
2070.0
3682.0
4240.0
2367.0
7061.0
2489.0
2350.0
3706.0
7430.0
7061.0
6900.0
6267.0
6000.0
5971.0
5565.0
4744.0
4240.0
4060.0
3706.0
3682.0
3220.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
3.45
6.90
10.34
13.79
17.24
20.69
24.14
27.59
31.03
34.48
37.93
41.38
44.83
29.00
14.50
9.67
7.25
5.80
4.83
4.14
3.63
3.22
2.90
2.64
2.42
2.23
3.8710
3.8489
3.8388
3.7971
3.7782
3.7760
3.7455
3.6761
3.6274
3.6085
3.5689
3.5661
3.5079
1983
2675.0
3130.0
14
48.28
2.07
3.4955
1984
6267.0
2737.0
15
51.72
1.93
3.4373
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
5971.0
4744.0
6000.0
4060.0
6900.0
5565.0
3130.0
2414.0
1796.0
7430.0
2675.0
2489.0
2414.0
2367.0
2350.0
2246.0
2230.0
2070.0
1804.0
1796.0
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
55.17
58.62
62.07
65.52
68.97
72.41
75.86
79.31
82.76
86.21
1.81
1.71
1.61
1.53
1.45
1.38
1.32
1.26
1.21
1.16
3.4273
3.3960
3.3827
3.3742
3.3711
3.3514
3.3483
3.3160
3.2562
3.2543
Media
3886.16
Media
3.5448
Desv. Est.
1825.91
Des. Est.
0.1999
Cof. Asim.
0.6778
Cof. Asim.
0.2514
Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo Log-Normal

T
K=Z
aos
Q (m3/s)
estimado
antilog(Y)
0.50000
0.0000
3.5448
3506.13
0.20000
0.8415
3.7130
5164.73
10
0.10000
1.2817
3.8011
6325.06
25
0.04000
1.7511
3.8949
7850.45
50
0.02000
2.0542
3.9555
9025.91
75
0.01333
2.2168
3.9880
9727.48
100
0.01000
2.3268
4.0100
10232.62
150
0.00667
2.4752
4.0396
10955.94
200
0.00500
2.5762
4.0599
11477.73
300
0.00333
2.7134
4.0873
12225.98
400
0.00250
2.8074
4.1061
12766.38
500
0.00200
2.8785
4.1203
13191.19
1000
0.00100
3.0905
4.1627
14543.51
Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo de Gumbel

T
Q (m3/s)
aos
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
150
200
300
400
500
1000
0.50000
0.20000
0.10000
0.04000
0.02000
0.01333
0.01000
0.00667
0.00500
0.00333
0.00250
0.00200
0.00100
-0.1643
0.7195
1.3046
2.0438
2.5923
2.9111
3.1367
3.4541
3.6791
3.9959
4.2205
4.3947
4.9355
3586.21
5199.82
6268.17
7618.03
8619.44
9201.49
9613.45
10193.08
10603.83
11182.26
11592.42
11910.45
12897.96
Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo Log-Pearson Tipo III

T
aos
Q (m3/s)
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
150
0.50000
0.20000
0.10000
0.04000
0.02000
0.01333
0.01000
0.00667
-0.0418
0.8266
1.3053
1.8345
2.1867
2.3791
2.5106
2.6897
estimado
3.5365
3.7101
3.8058
3.9116
3.9820
4.0204
4.0467
4.0825
antilog(Y)
3439.28
5129.64
6394.21
8157.72
9593.60
10481.99
11136.02
12093.31
500
0.00200
3.1870
4.1820
15204.27
1000
0.00100
3.4546
4.2354
17196.70
Comparacin de los Valores de Caudales Mximos Obtenidos

T
aos
Q (m3/s)
Q (m3/s)
Q (m3/s)
Q (m3/s)
observado
Log-Normal
Gumbel
Log-Pearson
0.50000
169.00
3506.13
3586.21
3439.28
0.20000
189.00
5164.73
5199.82
5129.64
10
0.10000
210.00
6325.06
6268.17
6394.21
25
0.04000
255.00
7850.45
7618.03
8157.72
50
0.02000
9025.91
8619.44
9593.60
75
0.01333
9727.48
9201.49
10481.99
100
0.01000
10232.62
9613.45
11136.02
150
0.00667
10955.94
10193.08
200
0.00500
11477.73
10603.83
#REF!
300
0.00333
12225.98
11182.26
#REF!
400
0.00250
12766.38
11592.42
#REF!
500
0.00200
13191.19
11910.45
15204.27
1000
0.00100
14543.51
12897.96
17196.70
12093.31
Clculo de los Lmites de Confianza - Mtodo Log-Normal

Grados de libertad: 28 - 2 =
26
K=Z
t (estad.) =
IC(Y)
2.056
LCI(Y)
LCS(Y)
LCI(Q)
LCS(Q)
aos
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
150
200
300
400
500
1000
0.50000
0.20000
0.10000
0.04000
0.02000
0.01333
0.01000
0.00667
0.00500
0.00333
0.00250
0.00200
0.00100
0.0000
0.8415
1.2817
1.7511
2.0542
2.2168
2.3268
2.4752
2.5762
2.7134
2.8074
2.8785
3.0905
3.5448
3.7130
3.8011
3.8949
3.9555
3.9880
4.0100
4.0396
4.0599
4.0873
4.1061
4.1203
4.1627
0.0777
0.0904
0.1048
0.1236
0.1370
0.1444
0.1496
0.1566
0.1614
0.1681
0.1727
0.1762
0.1867
3.4672
3.6227
3.6962
3.7713
3.8185
3.8436
3.8604
3.8831
3.8984
3.9192
3.9334
3.9441
3.9760
3.6225
3.8034
3.9059
4.0185
4.0925
4.1324
4.1595
4.1962
4.2213
4.2553
4.2787
4.2964
4.3493
2931.92
4194.32
4968.59
5905.63
6584.31
6975.48
7251.58
7639.66
7914.74
8302.70
8578.49
8792.85
9462.21
4192.80
6359.66
8051.87
10435.72
12372.89
13565.21
14439.13
15711.76
16644.66
18003.11
18998.75
19789.65
22353.51
Clculo de los Lmites de Confianza - Mtodo de Gumbel

26
t (estad.) =
Q (m3/s)
IC(Q)
2.056
LCI(Q)
LCS(Q)
aos
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
150
0.50000
0.20000
0.10000
0.04000
0.02000
0.01333
0.01000
0.00667
-0.1643
0.7195
1.3046
2.0438
2.5923
2.9111
3.1367
3.4541
3586.21
5199.82
6268.17
7618.03
8619.44
9201.49
9613.45
10193.08
714.22
795.98
965.20
1246.83
1481.37
1623.57
1726.08
1872.40
2871.99
4403.84
5302.97
6371.20
7138.06
7577.92
7887.37
8320.68
4300.44
5995.80
7233.37
8864.86
10100.81
10825.06
11339.53
12065.48
500
0.00200
4.3947
11910.45
1000
0.00100
4.9355
12897.96
2315.97
9594.48
14226.42
2575.58
10322.38
15473.55
Clculo de los Lmites de Confianza - Mtodo Log-Pearson Tipo III

25
t (estad.) =
IC(Y)
2.06
LCI(Y)
LCS(Y)
LCI(Q)
LCS(Q)
aos
2
0.50000
-0.0418
3.5365
0.0779
3.4586
3.6143
2874.79
4114.62
0.20000
0.8266
3.7101
0.0901
3.6199
3.8002
4168.11
6312.99
10
0.10000
1.3053
3.8058
0.1059
3.6999
3.9117
5010.41
8160.18
25
0.04000
1.8345
3.9116
0.1275
3.7841
4.0390
6082.70
10940.61
50
0.02000
2.1867
3.9820
0.1433
3.8387
4.1253
6897.13
13344.26
75
0.01333
2.3791
4.0204
0.1523
3.8681
4.1728
7381.28
14885.24
100
0.01000
2.5106
4.0467
0.1586
3.8882
4.2053
7729.56
16043.73
150
0.00667
2.6897
4.0825
0.1672
3.9153
4.2498
8228.30
17773.82
200
0.00500
2.8129
4.1072
0.1733
3.9339
4.2804
8588.36
19073.96
300
0.00333
2.9817
4.1409
0.1816
3.9593
4.3225
9105.43
21014.61
400
0.00250
3.0983
4.1642
0.1874
3.9768
4.3516
9479.60
22472.16
500
0.00200
3.1870
4.1820
0.1919
3.9901
4.3738
9774.24
23650.94
1000
0.00100
3.4546
4.2354
0.2054
4.0300
4.4409
10715.66
27597.58
FACTOR DE FRECUENCIA K = Z
DISTRIBUCION NORMAL
T
FACTOR DE FRECUENCIA K
DISTRIBUCION TIPO I - GUMBEL
aos
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
125
150
175
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
7500
8000
10000
aos
1.00000
0.50000
0.33333
0.25000
0.20000
0.16667
0.12500
0.10000
0.06667
0.05000
0.04000
0.03333
0.02857
0.02500
0.02222
0.02000
0.01818
0.01667
0.01538
0.01429
0.01333
0.01250
0.01176
0.01111
0.01053
0.01000
0.00800
0.00667
0.00571
0.00500
0.00400
0.00333
0.00286
0.00250
0.00222
0.00200
0.00182
0.00167
0.00154
0.00143
0.00133
0.00125
0.00118
0.00111
0.00105
0.00100
0.00067
0.00050
0.00040
0.00033
0.00029
0.00025
0.00022
0.00020
0.00013
0.00013
0.00010
infinito
1.1774
1.4823
1.6651
1.7941
1.8930
2.0393
2.1460
2.3273
2.4477
2.5373
2.6081
2.6666
2.7162
2.7592
2.7971
2.8310
2.8616
2.8894
2.9150
2.9385
2.9604
2.9808
2.9999
3.0179
3.0349
3.1075
3.1656
3.2140
3.2552
3.3231
3.3775
3.4228
3.4616
3.4955
3.5255
3.5524
3.5769
3.5992
3.6197
3.6387
3.6564
3.6729
3.6885
3.7031
3.7169
3.8245
3.8989
3.9558
4.0016
4.0399
4.0728
4.1017
4.1273
4.2244
4.2396
4.2919
infinito
0.0000
0.4303
0.6742
0.8415
0.9674
1.1504
1.2817
1.5014
1.6452
1.7511
1.8343
1.9026
1.9604
2.0103
2.0542
2.0933
2.1285
2.1605
2.1898
2.2168
2.2418
2.2652
2.2870
2.3075
2.3268
2.4093
2.4752
2.5297
2.5762
2.6525
2.7134
2.7641
2.8074
2.8451
2.8785
2.9084
2.9355
2.9603
2.9830
3.0041
3.0236
3.0419
3.0591
3.0753
3.0905
3.2090
3.2908
3.3530
3.4031
3.4450
3.4809
3.5124
3.5402
3.6458
3.6624
3.7191
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
125
150
175
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
7500
8000
10000
1.00000
0.50000
0.33333
0.25000
0.20000
0.16667
0.12500
0.10000
0.06667
0.05000
0.04000
0.03333
0.02857
0.02500
0.02222
0.02000
0.01818
0.01667
0.01538
0.01429
0.01333
0.01250
0.01176
0.01111
0.01053
0.01000
0.00800
0.00667
0.00571
0.00500
0.00400
0.00333
0.00286
0.00250
0.00222
0.00200
0.00182
0.00167
0.00154
0.00143
0.00133
0.00125
0.00118
0.00111
0.00105
0.00100
0.00067
0.00050
0.00040
0.00033
0.00029
0.00025
0.00022
0.00020
0.00013
0.00013
0.00010
infinito
-0.1643
0.2538
0.5214
0.7195
0.8770
1.1198
1.3046
1.6347
1.8658
2.0438
2.1887
2.3108
2.4163
2.5093
2.5923
2.6673
2.7358
2.7987
2.8569
2.9111
2.9617
3.0093
3.0541
3.0965
3.1367
3.3115
3.4541
3.5747
3.6791
3.8535
3.9959
4.1163
4.2205
4.3125
4.3947
4.4691
4.5370
4.5994
4.6573
4.7111
4.7614
4.8087
4.8533
4.8955
4.9355
5.2518
5.4762
5.6502
5.7924
5.9126
6.0167
6.1086
6.1907
6.5069
6.5572
6.7312

Maximas Avenidas

Cargado por

Copyright:

Formatos disponibles

Maximas Avenidas

Cargado por

Información del documento

Título original

Derechos de autor

Formatos disponibles

Compartir este documento

Compartir o incrustar documentos

Opciones para compartir

¿Le pareció útil este documento?

¿Este contenido es inapropiado?

Copyright:

Formatos disponibles

Maximas Avenidas

Cargado por

Copyright:

Formatos disponibles

Ejemplo de Clculo de Mximas Avenidas Mediante los Mtodos Estadsticos

(Uso de los Factores de Frecuencia)

Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo Log-Normal

Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo de Gumbel

Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo Log-Pearson Tipo III

Comparacin de los Valores de Caudales Mximos Obtenidos

Clculo de los Lmites de Confianza - Mtodo Log-Normal

Clculo de los Lmites de Confianza - Mtodo de Gumbel

Clculo de los Lmites de Confianza - Mtodo Log-Pearson Tipo III

También podría gustarte