Cruceros Simulacion Monte Carlo

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Una cuidad recibe un numero de cruceros por dia, de acuerdo con la ta

turistas que visitan la zona se muestra en la tabla 2. Se conoce ademas


a la cuidad, en promedio, por 5 dolares. Simular el ingreso de una sema
ingresos por una semana de acuerdo con 100 corridas.

Tabla 1. Llegada de cruceros dia.

No. Cruceros Probabilidad


0 0.20
1 0.50
2 0.20
3 0.10

Tabla 1. Con probabilidades acumuladas.

No. Crucero P(x) f(x) Li Ls


0 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.20
1 0.50 0.70 0.20 0.70
2 0.20 0.90 0.70 0.90
3 0.10 1.00 0.90 1.00

ITERACION ALEATORIO No. CRUCEROS ALEATORIO No. TURISTAS ING/DIA


1 0.2831978627 1 0.81596706 1500 $ 7,500.00
2 0.973563147 3 0.10887423 500 $ 7,500.00
3 0.6371203779 1 0.97965632 2000 $ 10,000.00
4 0.0154764976 0 0.40033469 1000 $ -
5 0.1988987109 0 0.06975484 500 $ -
6 0.8058172512 2 0.73860545 1500 $ 15,000.00
7 0.3109217591 1 0.68470812 1500 $ 7,500.00
TOTAL = $ 47,500.00

SIMULACION

INGRESOS
Dia 1 2 3 4 5
1 $ 15,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $ -
2 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00
3 $ 15,000.00 $ 10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ 10,000.00
4 $ 2,500.00 $ 15,000.00 $ - $ - $ 10,000.00
5 $ 5,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $20,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 10,000.00
6 $ - $ 7,500.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 10,000.00
7 $ 15,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 22,500.00
TOTAL $ 57,500.00 $ 50,000.00 $47,500.00 $ 30,000.00 $ 67,500.00

PROMEDIO INGRESOS SEMANALES == $ 52,275.00


de acuerdo con la tabla 1. Ademas, la probabilidad de
. Se conoce ademas, que cada turista genera ingresos
ingreso de una semana y calcular el promedio de los

Tabla 2. Turistas que visitan la ciudad por crucero

No. Cruceros Probabilidad


500 0.15
1000 0.40 Ingreso por persona $ 5.00
1500 0.35
2000 0.10

Tabla 2. Con probabilidades acumuladas.

No. Crucero P(x) f(x) Li Ls


500 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.15
1000 0.40 0.55 0.15 0.55
1500 0.35 0.90 0.55 0.90
2000 0.10 1.00 0.90 1.00

SIMULACION

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
$ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $22,500.00 $15,000.00 $ 2,500.00
$ 15,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ - $ - $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00
$ - $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $22,500.00 $ - $ 2,500.00 $ - $ 7,500.00
$ 15,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $20,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ - $ 2,500.00
$ - $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ 2,500.00 $ - $ -
$ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $22,500.00 $10,000.00
$ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $15,000.00 $10,000.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$ 50,000.00 $55,000.00 $70,000.00 $65,000.00 $32,500.00 $45,000.00 $50,000.00 $37,500.00
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
$ - $15,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ -
$ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $22,500.00 $20,000.00 $15,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ - $ - $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00
$ - $ - $15,000.00 $20,000.00 $15,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ - $10,000.00
$ 5,000.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00 $ - $ - $ 7,500.00 $22,500.00 $22,500.00
$ - $ - $ 5,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00
$ 2,500.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$20,000.00 $65,000.00 $62,500.00 $42,500.00 $50,000.00 $60,000.00 $70,000.00 $72,500.00
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
$ 2,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$22,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$20,000.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$15,000.00 $20,000.00 $15,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $20,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00
$10,000.00 $ - $ - $22,500.00 $ 2,500.00 $22,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00
$ - $ - $10,000.00 $22,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00
$15,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $30,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $22,500.00 $10,000.00
$85,000.00 $37,500.00 $57,500.00 ### $40,000.00 $82,500.00 $75,000.00 $60,000.00
30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37
$22,500.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ - $15,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ -
$ 5,000.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $22,500.00 $22,500.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $22,500.00
$15,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00
$ 5,000.00 $ - $ 2,500.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $22,500.00
$ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $15,000.00
$ - $22,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $ - $10,000.00 $15,000.00 $ -
$ - $ 2,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $22,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $15,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$52,500.00 $40,000.00 $47,500.00 $57,500.00 $50,000.00 $52,500.00 $60,000.00 $72,500.00
38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
$15,000.00 $30,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $ -
$22,500.00 $10,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ - $ - $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00
$ 2,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $22,500.00 $10,000.00 $ - $15,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$ 7,500.00 $ - $10,000.00 $ - $15,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $ -
$ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $ - $10,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00
$70,000.00 $67,500.00 $62,500.00 $35,000.00 $22,500.00 $42,500.00 $57,500.00 $40,000.00
46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
$ 2,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00
$10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ - $15,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ -
$22,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$10,000.00 $15,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $22,500.00 $10,000.00
$ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $22,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$22,500.00 $ - $10,000.00 $ - $ - $10,000.00 $15,000.00 $ -
$ - $ 7,500.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $15,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00
$75,000.00 $50,000.00 $60,000.00 $32,500.00 $52,500.00 $50,000.00 $82,500.00 $45,000.00
54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61
$22,500.00 $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ - $22,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ -
$ 5,000.00 $ - $ 2,500.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $20,000.00 $15,000.00
$ - $22,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $15,000.00
$ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $22,500.00 $20,000.00 $10,000.00 $30,000.00
$ - $15,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ 5,000.00
$ 5,000.00 $ - $22,500.00 $ - $ - $10,000.00 $20,000.00 $ 5,000.00
$ - $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $30,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00
$37,500.00 $60,000.00 $57,500.00 $15,000.00 $67,500.00 $72,500.00 $67,500.00 $75,000.00
62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69
$ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00
$ - $10,000.00 $ - $ - $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $15,000.00
$ - $15,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $20,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00
$ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $ - $ - $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00
$ 7,500.00 $22,500.00 $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00
$ - $22,500.00 $ - $ - $10,000.00 $10,000.00 $ - $ -
$ 5,000.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $ 2,500.00 $15,000.00 $ - $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00
$25,000.00 $87,500.00 $32,500.00 $12,500.00 $72,500.00 $42,500.00 $40,000.00 $60,000.00
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77
$ 7,500.00 $ 2,500.00 $20,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $10,000.00
$10,000.00 $22,500.00 $ 2,500.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00
$ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $10,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ - $ 7,500.00
$15,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $10,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $ 5,000.00
$ 5,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $10,000.00 $20,000.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $15,000.00
$ 5,000.00 $ - $ - $ 5,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00 $10,000.00
$15,000.00 $10,000.00 $ - $ - $ - $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $ 5,000.00
$62,500.00 $52,500.00 $40,000.00 $40,000.00 $35,000.00 $57,500.00 $62,500.00 $57,500.00
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85
$ - $ - $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $ 2,500.00
$15,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $ - $ - $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $ - $ 7,500.00
$ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ 7,500.00
$ - $ - $15,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ - $15,000.00 $ 5,000.00
$ 5,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $10,000.00
$ 2,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 5,000.00
$ - $ 7,500.00 $ - $10,000.00 $15,000.00 $ - $10,000.00 $ 2,500.00
$30,000.00 $25,000.00 $32,500.00 $47,500.00 $45,000.00 $35,000.00 $42,500.00 $40,000.00
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93
$ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $22,500.00
$ 5,000.00 $15,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $30,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00
$10,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $10,000.00 $10,000.00 $22,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $ -
$ - $15,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $ -
$ 7,500.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 7,500.00
$15,000.00 $30,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $10,000.00
$ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ - $ - $15,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00
$52,500.00 $77,500.00 $40,000.00 $65,000.00 $62,500.00 $50,000.00 $42,500.00 $50,000.00
94 95 96 97 98 99 100
$ 7,500.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $20,000.00 $ - $15,000.00 $10,000.00
$ - $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 5,000.00
$ 7,500.00 $ - $15,000.00 $15,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 5,000.00
$10,000.00 $ - $ 5,000.00 $10,000.00 $ 2,500.00 $10,000.00 $ -
$22,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $ 2,500.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 7,500.00 $ - $ 5,000.00
$ 7,500.00 $ 7,500.00 $15,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $ 5,000.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00
$ - $ 5,000.00 $ - $15,000.00 $ - $ - $ 7,500.00
$55,000.00 $25,000.00 $52,500.00 $75,000.00 $30,000.00 $57,500.00 $47,500.00

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