Tarea 3 2022

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CAPM ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA

10%
Precio = 20.00 0 1 2 3 4 5
CVU = 12.00 PVU 20.00 22.00 24.20 26.62 29.28
C.fijo = 50,000 CVU 12.00 13.20 14.52 15.97 17.57
Cantidad = 100,000 Ventas 2,000,000 2,200,000 2,420,000 2,662,000 2,928,200
T= 30% (-) Costo variable -1,200,000 -1,320,000 -1,452,000 -1,597,200 -1,756,920
(-) Costo fijo -50,000 -50,000 -50,000 -50,000 -50,000
(-) Depreciación -100,000 -100,000 -100,000 -100,000 -100,000
EBIT 650,000 730,000 818,000 914,800 1,021,280
(-) Impuesto -195,000 -219,000 -245,400 -274,440 -306,384
Depreciación 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000
Flujo operativo 555,000 611,000 672,600 740,360 814,896
Inversion -800,000
CTN -160,000
A) FCLD -960,000 555,000 611,000 672,600 740,360 814,896

ESCENARIO NORMAL
5%
0 1 2 3 4 5
PVU 20.00 21.00 22.05 23.15 24.31
CVU 12.00 12.60 13.23 13.89 14.59
Ventas 2,000,000 2,100,000 2,205,000 2,315,250 2,431,013
(-) Costo variable -1,200,000 -1,260,000 -1,323,000 -1,389,150 -1,458,608
(-) Costo fijo -50,000 -50,000 -50,000 -50,000 -50,000
(-) Depreciación -112,500 -112,500 -112,500 -112,500 -112,500
EBIT 637,500 677,500 719,500 763,600 809,905
(-) Impuesto -191,250 -203,250 -215,850 -229,080 -242,972
Depreciación 112,500 112,500 112,500 112,500 112,500
Flujo operativo 558,750 586,750 616,150 647,020 679,434
Inversion -900,000
CTN -200,000
A) FCLD -1,100,000 558,750 586,750 616,150 647,020 679,434

ESCENARIO PESIMISTA
-10%
0 1 2 3 4 5
PVU 20.00 18.00 16.20 14.58 13.12
CVU 12.00 10.80 9.72 8.75 7.87
Ventas 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,620,000 1,458,000 1,312,200
(-) Costo variable -1,200,000 -1,080,000 -972,000 -874,800 -787,320
(-) Costo fijo -50,000 -50,000 -50,000 -50,000 -50,000
(-) Depreciación -187,500 -187,500 -187,500 -187,500 -187,500
EBIT 562,500 482,500 410,500 345,700 287,380
(-) Impuesto -168,750 -144,750 -123,150 -103,710 -86,214
Depreciación 187,500 187,500 187,500 187,500 187,500
Flujo operativo 581,250 525,250 474,850 429,490 388,666
Inversion -1,500,000
CTN -800,000
A) FCLD -2,300,000 581,250 525,250 474,850 429,490 388,666
6 7 8 COK = 10.00%
32.21 35.43 38.97
19.33 21.26 23.38
3,221,020 3,543,122 3,897,434 WACC
-1,932,612 -2,125,873 -2,338,461 D= 0.2 16.67% 7.00%
-50,000 -50,000 -50,000 E= 1 83.33% 10.00%
-100,000 -100,000 -100,000 V= 1.2
1,138,408 1,267,249 1,408,974
-341,522 -380,175 -422,692 B) WACC = 9.15%
100,000 100,000 100,000
896,886 987,074 1,086,282
-400,000 C) VANE = 3,111,423 X 25% = 777,856
160,000
896,886 987,074 846,282

6 7 8 COK = 15.00%
25.53 26.80 28.14
15.32 16.08 16.89
2,552,563 2,680,191 2,814,201 WACC
-1,531,538 -1,608,115 -1,688,521 D= 0.75 42.86% 7.00%
-50,000 -50,000 -50,000 E= 1 57.14% 15.00%
-112,500 -112,500 -112,500 V= 1.75
858,525 909,577 963,180
-257,558 -272,873 -288,954 B) WACC = 10.67%
112,500 112,500 112,500
713,468 749,204 786,726
-300,000 C) VANE = 2,240,862 X 50% = 1,120,431
200,000
713,468 749,204 686,726

6 7 8 COK = 30.00%
11.81 10.63 9.57
7.09 6.38 5.74
1,180,980 1,062,882 956,594 WACC
-708,588 -637,729 -573,956 D= 1 50.00% 7.00%
-50,000 -50,000 -50,000 E= 1 50.00% 30.00%
-187,500 -187,500 -187,500 V= 2
234,892 187,653 145,138
-70,468 -56,296 -43,541 B) WACC = 17.45%
187,500 187,500 187,500
351,924 318,857 289,096
-375,000 C) VANE = -296,937 X 25% = -74,234
800,000
351,924 318,857 714,096

D) VANE ESPERADO = 1,824,052 Es viable por ser mayor a 0


TIEMPO DEL PROYECTO 4
VIDA UTIL DE HORNO 5
VIDA UTIL DE BATIDORA 5
VIDA UTIL DE MUEBLES Y EQUIPAMIENTO 4
VIDA UTIL DE LANZAMIENTO COMERCIAL 4
TASA DE IMPUESTO 35%
TASA DE IGV 18%

ACTIVO COSTO DEP. ANUAL DEP. TOTAL V.LIBROS V.COMERCIAL V.RECUPERO


Horno industrial 60,000 12,000 48,000 12,000
25,500 24,275
Batidora 50,000 10,000 40,000 10,000
Muebles y equipamiento 30,000 7,500 30,000 0 5,000 3,250
Lanzamiento comercial 7,627 1,907 7,627 0
TOTAL 147,627 31,407 125,627 22,000 30,500 27,525

Unidades a vender 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 A)


Valor de venta unitario S/. 50.85 S/. 50.85 S/. 50.85 S/. 50.85
Costo unitario de producción S/. 18.00 S/. 18.00 S/. 18.00 S/. 18.00

Flujo de caja 0 1 2 3 4
Ventas 305,085 305,085 305,085 305,085
(-) Costo de producción -108,000 -108,000 -108,000 -108,000
(-) Gastos de planillas -20,000 -21,000 -22,050 -23,153
(-) Depreciación/Amortización -31,407 -31,407 -31,407 -31,407
EBIT 145,678 144,678 143,628 142,525
(-) Impuesto a la renta -50,987 -50,637 -50,270 -49,884
IGV ventas 54,915 54,915 54,915 54,915
IGV costos -19,440 -19,440 -19,440 -19,440
(-) Pago de IGV -8,902 -35,475 -35,475 -40,430
Depreciación 31,407 31,407 31,407 31,407
Flujo de caja operativo 152,670 125,447 124,765 119,094
(-) Inversiones -147,627
(-) IGV Inversiones -26,573
Valor de recupero 27,525
IGV de Recuperación 4,955
(-) Capital de trabajo -12,089 -94 -99 -104 12,387 30%
B) Flujo de caja de libre disponibilidad -186,289 152,576 125,348 124,661 163,960
PRESTAMO 55,887
CUOTA -24,776 -22,727 -20,678
ESCUDO FISCAL 2,152 1,434 717
C) FLUJO DE CAJA FINANCIERO 55,887 -22,625 -21,293 -19,961 0
D) FCNI -130,402 129,951 104,055 104,700 163,960

COK = 15.00%
WACC = 8.00%

E) VANE = 281,926 > 0 ES VIABLE ECONOMICAMENTE


F) VANF = 223,866 > 0 ES VIABLE PARA EL ACCIONISTA
TIRE = 65.98% > WACC ES VIABLE ECONOMICAMENTE
TIRF = 85.61% > COK ES VIABLE PARA EL ACCIONISTA
Liquidación IGV 0 1 2 3 4
IGV Ventas 54,915 54,915 54,915 54,915
IGV Activos -26,573 4,955
IGV Costos -19,440 -19,440 -19,440 -19,440
Diferencia -26,573 35,475 35,475 35,475 40,430
Crédito Fiscal 26,573 -26,573
IGV por pagar 0 8,902 35,475 35,475 40,430

Capital de trabajo 0 1 2 3 4
Costo y gasto total 128,000 129,000 130,050 131,153
Cuentas por cobrar 18
Inventarios 36
Cuentas por pagar -20
Desfase (días) 34
CTN requerido 12,089 12,183 12,283 12,387
CTN incremental 12,089 94 99 104
Inversión en CTN -12,089 -94 -99 -104 12,387

PRESTAMO

MONTO = 55,887 N SALDO AMORTIZACION INTERES CUOTA E. FISCAL


TEA = 11.00% 0 55,887
1 37,258 18,629 6,148 24,776 2,152
2 18,629 18,629 4,098 22,727 1,434
3 0 18,629 2,049 20,678 717

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