Papers by Jose Morales-Arilla
Economic Development and Historical Political Economy
Oxford University Press eBooks, Feb 23, 2023
Economics & Politics
Do gains from globalization erode support for economic nationalism? We study how NAFTA-enhanced l... more Do gains from globalization erode support for economic nationalism? We study how NAFTA-enhanced local access to US-markets affected Mexican demands for protectionist platforms. The left-led by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)-under-performed in cities benefiting from export access gains during the 2006 presidential elections. This effect is observed strictly in 2006-the only post-NAFTA election in which debates over trade integration played a salient role. Our findings are robust to controls for import competing pressures from NAFTA and the China Shock. AMLO's 2006 protectionist platform likely cost him that year's election, and campaign media strategies in 2012 map to this earlier backlash.
Identifying Export Side Effects of Law Enforcement During the Mexican Drug War
SSRN Electronic Journal
SSRN Electronic Journal
In a paper titled "Economic sanctions as collective punishment: The case of Venezuela" (Weisbrot ... more In a paper titled "Economic sanctions as collective punishment: The case of Venezuela" (Weisbrot and Sachs, 2019), the authors-henceforth referred to as WS-set out to assess the causal effects of the financial sanctions imposed by the United States on Venezuela in August 2017. The authors conclude that "sanctions reduced the public's caloric intake, increased disease and mortality (for both adults and infants), and displaced millions of Venezuelans who fled the country as a result of the worsening economic depression and hyperinflation." WS also claim that "sanctions have inflicted […] very serious harm to human life and health, including an estimated more than 40,000 deaths from 2017-2018." Venezuela LATAM Emerging Markets Sanctions imposed
Do autocrats favor their supporters during economic shocks? I introduce a model of redistribution... more Do autocrats favor their supporters during economic shocks? I introduce a model of redistribution and regime stability that shows how in-group favors can be a strategic response to economic downturns. The model predicts that, as economic shocks worsen, autocrats may favor their supporters and confront opposition protests to save on appeasement costs. I test the model’s main results in two empirical settings. First, I focus on the Venezuelan blackouts of 2019. Consistent with the model, the Maduro regime was more likely to exempt regime-supporting regions affected by the blackout from later power rationing. Moreover, blackout-induced protests were limited to opposition-leaning regions. I then focus on negative rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa. Droughts magnify differences in development, protests and state-coercion outcomes in favor of leaders’ home regions.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018
Pobreza, cobertura de las Misiones y necesidades de protección social para la reforma económica de Venezuela
Incluso antes de que se iniciara la crisis de los precios petroleros en 2014, los avances en la r... more Incluso antes de que se iniciara la crisis de los precios petroleros en 2014, los avances en la reduccion de la pobreza en Venezuela habian cesado y asi lo demostraban las cifras oficiales. Segun el INE entre 2008 y 2013 el porcentaje de la poblacion en situacion de pobreza se habia mantenido casi igual al pasar de 33,1% a 34,2%. Estas son las ultimas cifras oficiales de pobreza de ingreso que disponemos ya que la ultima contabilizacion oficial de porcentaje de poblacion en situacion de pobreza es la del segundo semestre de 20131. A partir de ese momento la descripcion social de la pobreza en Venezuela ha dependido de estudios independientes realizados entre otros, por un consorcio de varias universidades del pais2 que dan cuenta de la evolucion de la pobreza entre 2014 y 2015 (ENCOVI, 2014 y 2015), anos donde se precipitaron los precios del petroleo hasta un tercio de lo que llegaron a ser durante 2008 acelerando un proceso de deterioro en los indicadores de desempeno economico y b...
Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning (A)
This paper studies the unintended economic consequences of increases in violence following the Me... more This paper studies the unintended economic consequences of increases in violence following the Mexican Drug War. We study the effects on exports in municipalities with different levels of exposure to violence after the policy. A focus on exports allows us to control for demand shocks by comparing exports of the same product to the same country of destination. Building on the close elections identification strategy proposed by Dell (2015), we show that municipalities that are exogenously exposed to the Drug War experience a 40% decrease in export growth on the in- tensive margin. Large exporters suffer larger effects, along with exports of more complex, capital intensive, and skill intensive products. Finally, using firm level data, we provide evidence consistent with violence increasing marginal exporting costs.
Growing Cities That Work for All: A Capability-Based Approach to Regional Economic Competitiveness
We study the effects of local tariff drops for Mexican exports to the US on the local electoral p... more We study the effects of local tariff drops for Mexican exports to the US on the local electoral perfor- mance of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) in Mexico’s 2006 presidential election. In an effort to appeal to his rural base, AMLO proposed to unilaterally retain tariff exemptions on imported corn and beans, which were scheduled to drop under NAFTA by the end of 2008. This elevated protectionism in the public agenda during the campaign. We find that local economic gains due to export tariff drops under NAFTA between 1994 and 2001 led to a drop in AMLO’s local vote share gains in 2006. These effects are contingent to the 2006 election, as similar effects on local vote for the left are not found in previous or later elections. Results are robust to controls for local grain growing and Chinese competition. We predict that AMLO would have been elected in 2006 had protectionism not been a salient electoral issue. Our findings suggest export access gains due to globalization undermine ...
ACM SIGCAS Conference on Computing and Sustainable Societies (COMPASS), 2021
As the COVID-19 pandemic pushed firms to comply with social distancing guidelines, the relative d... more As the COVID-19 pandemic pushed firms to comply with social distancing guidelines, the relative demand for work that could be performed from home was expected to increase. However, while employment in "remotable" occupations was relatively resilient during the pandemic, online job postings-which measure demand for new hires-for these occupations dropped disproportionately. This apparent contradiction is not explained by prior job "churning" in "non-remote" jobs, nor by the recomposition of the labor market across economic sectors. The underperformance of postings in "remotable" jobs during the pandemic concentrates in essential occupations and occupations with high returns to experience. CCS CONCEPTS • Social and professional topics → Employment issues; Economic impact; • General and reference → Empirical studies; Estimation.
Emerging Markets Economics: Industrial Policy & Regulation eJournal, 2016
The economy of Panama has thrived for more than a decade, based on a modern service sector on the... more The economy of Panama has thrived for more than a decade, based on a modern service sector on the activities surrounding the Canal. Panama has inserted its economy into global value chains, providing competitive services in logistics, ship handling, financial intermediation, insurance, communication and trade. The expansion of the modern service sector required significant non-residential construction, including office buildings, commercial outlets, warehouses, and even shopping malls. Large public infrastructure projects such as the expansion of the Canal, the Metro, and Tocumen airport, have provided an additional drive and paved the road for productive diversification. But productive diversification does not spread randomly. A country diversifies towards activities that demand similar capacities than the ones already in place. Current capabilities and know-how can be recombined and redeployed into new, adjacent activities, of higher value added. This report identifies productive ...
SSRN Electronic Journal
Panama has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world over the previous years. The co... more Panama has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world over the previous years. The country has leveraged on the activities surrounding the Canal to duplicate its income per capita in a decade. A modern sector specialized in logistics, financial services, communications and trade, has spurred economic growth and provided a consistent foreign exchange surplus in the balance of services. Building up the service sector has in turn demanded a lot of investment in construction, the leading growing sector in Panama, tripling its share within gross domestic product (GDP) in ten years. Private non-residential construction, and large public infrastructure projects such as the expansion of the Canal and the Metro of Panama City, account for most of the boom. Another pillar of growth over the acceleration period has been trade, namely leveraging on Panama´s excellent trade infrastructure to channel merchandise from Asia to Central America and the Caribbean. A last, a vibrant air traffic hub was created in Panama City.
SSRN Electronic Journal
Panama has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world over the previous years. The co... more Panama has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world over the previous years. The country has leveraged on the activities surrounding the Canal to duplicate its income per capita in a decade. A modern sector specialized in logistics, financial services, communications and trade, has spurred economic growth and provided a consistent foreign exchange surplus in the balance of services. Building up the service sector has in turn demanded a lot of investment in construction, the leading growing sector in Panama, tripling its share within gross domestic product (GDP) in ten years. Private non-residential construction, and large public infrastructure projects such as the expansion of the Canal and the Metro of Panama City, account for most of the boom. Another pillar of growth over the acceleration period has been trade, namely leveraging on Panama´s excellent trade infrastructure to channel merchandise from Asia to Central America and the Caribbean. A last, a vibrant air traffic hub was created in Panama City.
Uploads
Papers by Jose Morales-Arilla