Predictions of cervical cancer burden and the impact of measures taken to control this cancer are... more Predictions of cervical cancer burden and the impact of measures taken to control this cancer are usually data-demanding and based on complex assumptions. We propose a predictive method (PANDORA) based on HPV prevalence, measured 1993-2008, and cervical cancer incidence (CCI), measured 1993-2012, in the same birth cohorts from different worldwide locations, informed by data on age at high-risk human papillomavirus (HR HPV) detection and sexual debut. The model can predict CCI among HR HPV-positive women and predict CCI up to 14 years following HR HPV detection. We found CCI to increase during the 14 years following HR HPV detection in unscreened women <35 years, but to remain mainly constant among women ≥ 35 years. Age at sexual debut was a significant modifier of CCI. Using our model, we accurately reproduced CCI among HR HPV-positive women as observed in cohort studies and in the general population of multiple countries. We also predicted the annual number of cervical cancer ca...
The field of distributional ecology has seen considerable recent attention, particularly surround... more The field of distributional ecology has seen considerable recent attention, particularly surrounding the theory, protocols, and tools for Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) or Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). Such analyses have grown steadily over the past two decades-including a maturation of relevant theory and key concepts-but methodological consensus has yet to be reached. In response, and following an online course taught in Spanish in 2018, we designed a comprehensive English-language course covering much of the underlying theory and methods currently applied in this broad field. Here, we summarize that course, ENM2020, and provide links by which resources produced for it can be accessed into the future. ENM2020 lasted 43 weeks, with presentations from 52 instructors, who engaged with >2500 participants globally through >14,000 hours of viewing and >90,000 views of instructional video and question-and-answer sessions. Each major topic was introduced by an "Overview" talk, followed by more detailed lectures on subtopics. The hierarchical and modular format of the course permits updates, corrections, or alternative viewpoints, and generally facilitates revision and reuse, including the use of only the Overview lectures for introductory courses. All course materials are free and openly accessible (CC-BY license) to ensure these resources remain available to all interested in distributional ecology.
Predictions of cervical cancer burden and the impact of measures taken to control this cancer are... more Predictions of cervical cancer burden and the impact of measures taken to control this cancer are usually data-demanding and based on complex assumptions. We propose a predictive method (called PANDORA) based on human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence, measured 1993–2008, and cervical cancer incidence (CCI), measured 1993–2012, in the same birth cohorts from different worldwide locations, informed by data on age at detection of high-risk HPV and sexual debut. The model can predict CCI among high-risk HPV–positive women and predict CCI up to 14 years following high-risk HPV detection. We found CCI to increase during the 14 years following high-risk HPV detection in unscreened women aged <35 years but to remain mainly constant among women ≥35 years. Age at sexual debut was a significant modifier of CCI. Using our model, we accurately reproduced CCI among high-risk HPV–positive women as observed in cohort studies and in the general population of multiple countries. We also predicted t...
Purpose: The two main subtypes of primary liver cancer are hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and int... more Purpose: The two main subtypes of primary liver cancer are hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA). We aimed to produce worldwide and regional estimates of the distribution of these subtypes based on high quality data. Methods: Population-based cancer registry data were used to compute sex-specific proportions of HCC, iCCA, and other specified histology. The proportions were applied to sex- and age-specific liver cancer estimates from GLOBOCAN 2018 and age-standardized incidence rates were calculated. Results: Of an estimated 826,000 cases of liver cancer in 2018, 661,000 (80.0%) were HCC, 123,000 (14.9%) were iCCA and 42,000 (5.1%) were other specified histology. In nearly all world regions, HCC was more common than iCCA, except in women in Northern Europe where iCCA was more common than HCC. The highest rates of HCC were found in Eastern Asia (14.8 cases per 100,000 person-years), Northern Africa (13.2) and South-Eastern Asia (9.5). The highest ra...
Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species com... more Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability e289
Background Predictions of cervical cancer burden and impact of control measures are often modelle... more Background Predictions of cervical cancer burden and impact of control measures are often modelled from HPV prevalence. However, predictions could be improved by data on time between prevalent HPV detection and cervical cancer occurrence. Methods Based upon high-risk (HR) HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence in the same birth cohorts from 17 worldwide locations, and informed by individual-level data on age at HR HPV detection and on sexual debut, we built a mixed model to predict cervical cancer incidence up to 14 years following prevalent HR HPV detection. Findings Cervical cancer incidence increased significantly during the 14 years following HR HPV detection in women <35 years, e.g. from 0.02 (95% CI 0.003-0.06) per 1000 within 1 year to 2.8 (1.2-6.5) at 14 years for unscreened women, but remained relatively constant following prevalent HR HPV detection above 35 years, e.g. from 5.4 (2.5-11) per 1000 within 1 year to 6.4 (2.4-17.1) at 14 years for unscreened HR HPV pos...
Background Infectious pathogens are strong and modifiable causes of cancer. The aim of this study... more Background Infectious pathogens are strong and modifiable causes of cancer. The aim of this study was to improve estimates of the global and regional burden of infection-attributable cancers to inform research priorities and facilitate prevention efforts. Methods We used the GLOBOCAN 2018 database of cancer incidence and mortality rates and estimated the attributable fractions and global incidence for specific anatomical cancer sites, subsites, or histological subtypes known to be associated with ten infectious pathogens classified as human carcinogens. We calculated absolute numbers and age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) of infection-attributable cancers at the country level. Estimates were stratified for sex, age group, and country, and were aggregated according to geographical regions and World Bank income groups. Findings We found that, for 2018, an estimated 2•2 million infection-attributable cancer cases were diagnosed worldwide, corresponding to an infection-attributable ASIR of 25•0 cases per 100 000 person-years. Primary causes were Helicobacter pylori (810 000 cases, ASIR 8•7 cases per 100 000 person-years), human papillomavirus (690 000, 8•0), hepatitis B virus (360 000, 4•1) and hepatitis C virus (160 000, 1•7). Infection-attributable ASIR was highest in eastern Asia (37•9 cases per 100 000 person-years) and sub-Saharan Africa (33•1), and lowest in northern Europe (13•6) and western Asia (13•8). China accounted for a third of worldwide cancer cases attributable to infection, driven by high ASIR of H pylori (15•6) and hepatitis B virus (11•7) infection. The cancer burden attributed to human papillomavirus showed the clearest relationship with country income level (from ASIR of 6•9 cases per 100 000 personyears in high-income countries to 16•1 in low-income countries). Interpretation Infection-attributable cancer incidence, in addition to the absolute number of cases, allows for refined geographic analyses and identification of populations with a high infection-associated cancer burden. When cancer prevention is largely considered in a non-communicable disease context, there is a crucial need for resources directed towards cancer prevention programmes that target infection, particularly in high-risk populations. Such interventions can markedly reduce the increasing cancer burden and associated mortality.
AimTranslocation remains a controversial strategy in species conservation. Here, we utilise the u... more AimTranslocation remains a controversial strategy in species conservation. Here, we utilise the unusual scenario of invasive alien species (IAS) threatened with extinction in their native range to address key challenges in deciding ‘whether’, ‘where’, and ‘when’ to implement translocation, and how best to approach conservation under seemingly contradictory circumstances.LocationIberian Peninsula, NW EuropeMethodsRhododendron ponticum ssp. baeticum was selected as a model IAS for case study analysis. We used species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with dynamic simulations of migration to assess: 1. the extinction risk posed to this species in its native Iberian range under climate change; 2. whether SDMs calibrated on the native range (replicating typical translocation planning) could predict invasive capacity in NW Europe; and 3. the extent to which recommended biogeographical constrains on translocations may limit available options. Insights gained on the above were used to buil...
Global change impacts on the Earth System are typically evaluated using biome classifications bas... more Global change impacts on the Earth System are typically evaluated using biome classifications based on trees and forests. However, during the Cenozoic, many terrestrial biomes were transformed through the displacement of trees and shrubs by grasses. While grasses comprise 3% of vascular plant species, they are responsible for more than 25% of terrestrial photosynthesis. Critically, grass dominance alters ecosystem dynamics and function by introducing new ecological processes, especially surface fires and grazing. However, the large grassy component of many global biomes is often neglected in their descriptions, thereby ignoring these important ecosystem processes. Furthermore, the functional diversity of grasses in vegetation models is usually reduced to C3 and C4 photosynthetic plant functional types, omitting other relevant traits. Here, we compile available data to determine the global distribution of grassy vegetation and key traits related to grass dominance. Grassy biomes (whe...
International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management
The European Union (EU) 2020 Biodiversity strategy aims at guaranteeing and enhancing the future ... more The European Union (EU) 2020 Biodiversity strategy aims at guaranteeing and enhancing the future supply of ecosystem services ('ES') in the member states. In an ex-ante assessment of plausible environmental policies, we projected the supply of 10 ES under 3 policy alternatives of land-use change ('Nature Protection', 'Payment for carbon sequestration' and 'Payment for recreational services') in the 27 EU member states (EU27). We assessed changes in supply of individual services across administrative units (at the NUTS-2 and EU27 levels) as well as bundles (at the EU27 level) between 2010 and 2040. Results show that the policy options only marginally affected ES bundles but several services could change substantially at the EU27 level (e.g. energy content from agricultural production and pollination). Wood supply, carbon sequestration and moderation of wind disturbance responded very differently across policy alternatives. At the NUTS-2 level, biocontrol of pests, carbon sequestration, moderation of wind disturbance and wood supply showed the most contrasted deviation from their regional supply in 2010. Finally, while payments for carbon sequestration benefited carbon sequestration as expected, specific payments for recreation services failed to promote them. Our analyses suggest that protecting nature appeared to be the best way of fostering ES supply within Europe.
The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications... more The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem functioning. Here we explore the biome-wide relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits both across space and over three decades of warming at 117 tundra locations. Spatial temperature-trait relationships were generally strong but soil moisture had a marked influence on the strength and direction of these relationships, highlighting the potentially important influence of changes in water availability on future trait shifts in tundra plant communities. Community height increased with warming across all sites over the past three decades, but other traits lagged far behind predicted rates of change. Our f...
Globally accelerating trends in societal development and human environmental impacts since the mi... more Globally accelerating trends in societal development and human environmental impacts since the mid-twentieth centuryare known as the Great Acceleration and have been discussed as a key indicator of the onset of the Anthropocene epoch. While reports on ecological responses (for example, changes in species range or local extinctions) to the Great Acceleration are multiplying, it is unknown whether such biotic responses are undergoing a similar acceleration over time. This knowledge gap stems from the limited availability of time series data on biodiversity changes across large temporal and geographical extents. Here we use a dataset of repeated plant surveys from 302 mountain summits across Europe, spanning 145 years of observation, to assess the temporal trajectory of mountain biodiversity changes as a globally coherent imprint of the Anthropocene. We find a continent-wide acceleration in the rate of increase in plant species richness, with five times as much species enrichment betwe...
Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to tr... more Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species' range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species' responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due to maladaptation occurs faster than the contraction of the species range, especially for the...
Predictions of cervical cancer burden and the impact of measures taken to control this cancer are... more Predictions of cervical cancer burden and the impact of measures taken to control this cancer are usually data-demanding and based on complex assumptions. We propose a predictive method (PANDORA) based on HPV prevalence, measured 1993-2008, and cervical cancer incidence (CCI), measured 1993-2012, in the same birth cohorts from different worldwide locations, informed by data on age at high-risk human papillomavirus (HR HPV) detection and sexual debut. The model can predict CCI among HR HPV-positive women and predict CCI up to 14 years following HR HPV detection. We found CCI to increase during the 14 years following HR HPV detection in unscreened women <35 years, but to remain mainly constant among women ≥ 35 years. Age at sexual debut was a significant modifier of CCI. Using our model, we accurately reproduced CCI among HR HPV-positive women as observed in cohort studies and in the general population of multiple countries. We also predicted the annual number of cervical cancer ca...
The field of distributional ecology has seen considerable recent attention, particularly surround... more The field of distributional ecology has seen considerable recent attention, particularly surrounding the theory, protocols, and tools for Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) or Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). Such analyses have grown steadily over the past two decades-including a maturation of relevant theory and key concepts-but methodological consensus has yet to be reached. In response, and following an online course taught in Spanish in 2018, we designed a comprehensive English-language course covering much of the underlying theory and methods currently applied in this broad field. Here, we summarize that course, ENM2020, and provide links by which resources produced for it can be accessed into the future. ENM2020 lasted 43 weeks, with presentations from 52 instructors, who engaged with >2500 participants globally through >14,000 hours of viewing and >90,000 views of instructional video and question-and-answer sessions. Each major topic was introduced by an "Overview" talk, followed by more detailed lectures on subtopics. The hierarchical and modular format of the course permits updates, corrections, or alternative viewpoints, and generally facilitates revision and reuse, including the use of only the Overview lectures for introductory courses. All course materials are free and openly accessible (CC-BY license) to ensure these resources remain available to all interested in distributional ecology.
Predictions of cervical cancer burden and the impact of measures taken to control this cancer are... more Predictions of cervical cancer burden and the impact of measures taken to control this cancer are usually data-demanding and based on complex assumptions. We propose a predictive method (called PANDORA) based on human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence, measured 1993–2008, and cervical cancer incidence (CCI), measured 1993–2012, in the same birth cohorts from different worldwide locations, informed by data on age at detection of high-risk HPV and sexual debut. The model can predict CCI among high-risk HPV–positive women and predict CCI up to 14 years following high-risk HPV detection. We found CCI to increase during the 14 years following high-risk HPV detection in unscreened women aged <35 years but to remain mainly constant among women ≥35 years. Age at sexual debut was a significant modifier of CCI. Using our model, we accurately reproduced CCI among high-risk HPV–positive women as observed in cohort studies and in the general population of multiple countries. We also predicted t...
Purpose: The two main subtypes of primary liver cancer are hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and int... more Purpose: The two main subtypes of primary liver cancer are hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA). We aimed to produce worldwide and regional estimates of the distribution of these subtypes based on high quality data. Methods: Population-based cancer registry data were used to compute sex-specific proportions of HCC, iCCA, and other specified histology. The proportions were applied to sex- and age-specific liver cancer estimates from GLOBOCAN 2018 and age-standardized incidence rates were calculated. Results: Of an estimated 826,000 cases of liver cancer in 2018, 661,000 (80.0%) were HCC, 123,000 (14.9%) were iCCA and 42,000 (5.1%) were other specified histology. In nearly all world regions, HCC was more common than iCCA, except in women in Northern Europe where iCCA was more common than HCC. The highest rates of HCC were found in Eastern Asia (14.8 cases per 100,000 person-years), Northern Africa (13.2) and South-Eastern Asia (9.5). The highest ra...
Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species com... more Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability e289
Background Predictions of cervical cancer burden and impact of control measures are often modelle... more Background Predictions of cervical cancer burden and impact of control measures are often modelled from HPV prevalence. However, predictions could be improved by data on time between prevalent HPV detection and cervical cancer occurrence. Methods Based upon high-risk (HR) HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence in the same birth cohorts from 17 worldwide locations, and informed by individual-level data on age at HR HPV detection and on sexual debut, we built a mixed model to predict cervical cancer incidence up to 14 years following prevalent HR HPV detection. Findings Cervical cancer incidence increased significantly during the 14 years following HR HPV detection in women <35 years, e.g. from 0.02 (95% CI 0.003-0.06) per 1000 within 1 year to 2.8 (1.2-6.5) at 14 years for unscreened women, but remained relatively constant following prevalent HR HPV detection above 35 years, e.g. from 5.4 (2.5-11) per 1000 within 1 year to 6.4 (2.4-17.1) at 14 years for unscreened HR HPV pos...
Background Infectious pathogens are strong and modifiable causes of cancer. The aim of this study... more Background Infectious pathogens are strong and modifiable causes of cancer. The aim of this study was to improve estimates of the global and regional burden of infection-attributable cancers to inform research priorities and facilitate prevention efforts. Methods We used the GLOBOCAN 2018 database of cancer incidence and mortality rates and estimated the attributable fractions and global incidence for specific anatomical cancer sites, subsites, or histological subtypes known to be associated with ten infectious pathogens classified as human carcinogens. We calculated absolute numbers and age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) of infection-attributable cancers at the country level. Estimates were stratified for sex, age group, and country, and were aggregated according to geographical regions and World Bank income groups. Findings We found that, for 2018, an estimated 2•2 million infection-attributable cancer cases were diagnosed worldwide, corresponding to an infection-attributable ASIR of 25•0 cases per 100 000 person-years. Primary causes were Helicobacter pylori (810 000 cases, ASIR 8•7 cases per 100 000 person-years), human papillomavirus (690 000, 8•0), hepatitis B virus (360 000, 4•1) and hepatitis C virus (160 000, 1•7). Infection-attributable ASIR was highest in eastern Asia (37•9 cases per 100 000 person-years) and sub-Saharan Africa (33•1), and lowest in northern Europe (13•6) and western Asia (13•8). China accounted for a third of worldwide cancer cases attributable to infection, driven by high ASIR of H pylori (15•6) and hepatitis B virus (11•7) infection. The cancer burden attributed to human papillomavirus showed the clearest relationship with country income level (from ASIR of 6•9 cases per 100 000 personyears in high-income countries to 16•1 in low-income countries). Interpretation Infection-attributable cancer incidence, in addition to the absolute number of cases, allows for refined geographic analyses and identification of populations with a high infection-associated cancer burden. When cancer prevention is largely considered in a non-communicable disease context, there is a crucial need for resources directed towards cancer prevention programmes that target infection, particularly in high-risk populations. Such interventions can markedly reduce the increasing cancer burden and associated mortality.
AimTranslocation remains a controversial strategy in species conservation. Here, we utilise the u... more AimTranslocation remains a controversial strategy in species conservation. Here, we utilise the unusual scenario of invasive alien species (IAS) threatened with extinction in their native range to address key challenges in deciding ‘whether’, ‘where’, and ‘when’ to implement translocation, and how best to approach conservation under seemingly contradictory circumstances.LocationIberian Peninsula, NW EuropeMethodsRhododendron ponticum ssp. baeticum was selected as a model IAS for case study analysis. We used species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with dynamic simulations of migration to assess: 1. the extinction risk posed to this species in its native Iberian range under climate change; 2. whether SDMs calibrated on the native range (replicating typical translocation planning) could predict invasive capacity in NW Europe; and 3. the extent to which recommended biogeographical constrains on translocations may limit available options. Insights gained on the above were used to buil...
Global change impacts on the Earth System are typically evaluated using biome classifications bas... more Global change impacts on the Earth System are typically evaluated using biome classifications based on trees and forests. However, during the Cenozoic, many terrestrial biomes were transformed through the displacement of trees and shrubs by grasses. While grasses comprise 3% of vascular plant species, they are responsible for more than 25% of terrestrial photosynthesis. Critically, grass dominance alters ecosystem dynamics and function by introducing new ecological processes, especially surface fires and grazing. However, the large grassy component of many global biomes is often neglected in their descriptions, thereby ignoring these important ecosystem processes. Furthermore, the functional diversity of grasses in vegetation models is usually reduced to C3 and C4 photosynthetic plant functional types, omitting other relevant traits. Here, we compile available data to determine the global distribution of grassy vegetation and key traits related to grass dominance. Grassy biomes (whe...
International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management
The European Union (EU) 2020 Biodiversity strategy aims at guaranteeing and enhancing the future ... more The European Union (EU) 2020 Biodiversity strategy aims at guaranteeing and enhancing the future supply of ecosystem services ('ES') in the member states. In an ex-ante assessment of plausible environmental policies, we projected the supply of 10 ES under 3 policy alternatives of land-use change ('Nature Protection', 'Payment for carbon sequestration' and 'Payment for recreational services') in the 27 EU member states (EU27). We assessed changes in supply of individual services across administrative units (at the NUTS-2 and EU27 levels) as well as bundles (at the EU27 level) between 2010 and 2040. Results show that the policy options only marginally affected ES bundles but several services could change substantially at the EU27 level (e.g. energy content from agricultural production and pollination). Wood supply, carbon sequestration and moderation of wind disturbance responded very differently across policy alternatives. At the NUTS-2 level, biocontrol of pests, carbon sequestration, moderation of wind disturbance and wood supply showed the most contrasted deviation from their regional supply in 2010. Finally, while payments for carbon sequestration benefited carbon sequestration as expected, specific payments for recreation services failed to promote them. Our analyses suggest that protecting nature appeared to be the best way of fostering ES supply within Europe.
The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications... more The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem functioning. Here we explore the biome-wide relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits both across space and over three decades of warming at 117 tundra locations. Spatial temperature-trait relationships were generally strong but soil moisture had a marked influence on the strength and direction of these relationships, highlighting the potentially important influence of changes in water availability on future trait shifts in tundra plant communities. Community height increased with warming across all sites over the past three decades, but other traits lagged far behind predicted rates of change. Our f...
Globally accelerating trends in societal development and human environmental impacts since the mi... more Globally accelerating trends in societal development and human environmental impacts since the mid-twentieth centuryare known as the Great Acceleration and have been discussed as a key indicator of the onset of the Anthropocene epoch. While reports on ecological responses (for example, changes in species range or local extinctions) to the Great Acceleration are multiplying, it is unknown whether such biotic responses are undergoing a similar acceleration over time. This knowledge gap stems from the limited availability of time series data on biodiversity changes across large temporal and geographical extents. Here we use a dataset of repeated plant surveys from 302 mountain summits across Europe, spanning 145 years of observation, to assess the temporal trajectory of mountain biodiversity changes as a globally coherent imprint of the Anthropocene. We find a continent-wide acceleration in the rate of increase in plant species richness, with five times as much species enrichment betwe...
Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to tr... more Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species' range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species' responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due to maladaptation occurs faster than the contraction of the species range, especially for the...
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Papers by Damien Georges