Papers by Timur Khayrullin
Палестино-израильский конфликт 2023 года: реакция глобальных и региональных игроков/The Palestinian-Israeli Conflict of 2023: The Response of Global and Regional Actors, 2024
В статье анализируется реакция стран арабского региона, а также мировых держав на очередной палес... more В статье анализируется реакция стран арабского региона, а также мировых держав на очередной палестино-израильский конфликт, вспыхнувший 7 октября 2023 г. Возникновение конфликтной ситуации произвело колоссальный информационный эффект, приведший к неоднозначной оценке событий со стороны официальных властей разных стран. В региональном отношении большинство стран выступило с единой позицией – возложением ответственности за нападения на Израиль. Лишь малая часть стран региона осудила любое насилие и призвала конфликтующие стороны начать мирные переговоры. Жесткая риторика наблюдалась со стороны одного из неарабских игроков региона – Турции, которая открыто объявила о поддержке ХАМАС и осудила действия Израиля. Эскалационный тон содержался и в официальных заявлениях Ирана. Глобальные игроки в лице США и его союзников по Европейскому Союзу выступили на стороне Израиля, заявив о праве израильтян на самооборону. Позиция России и Китая заключалась в скорейшем прекращении огня, а также в необходимости реализации решения о сосуществовании двух государств и создании независимого палестинского государства.
The article considers the formation of the Turkish-Qatari-Ikhwani alliance, which attained intern... more The article considers the formation of the Turkish-Qatari-Ikhwani alliance, which attained international prominence and strengthened its leadership position in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) during the events of the Arab Spring. While some researchers posit the formation of this alliance just before the Arab Spring, this study argues that cooperation between Türkiye, Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood (al-Ikhwan) has deeper roots, going back to the 1960s. Further, the article argues that the most important factor in the rapprochement between Qatar and Türkiye was their cooperation with the Muslim Brotherhood, a transnational Islamist organisation. Despite the rise of the counterweight Saudi-Emerati alliance, Doha and Ankara continue to play an important role in the region, with the mediation role of Qatar in the context of the renewed conflict between Hamas and Israel a particular focus.
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economic Development of North African countries. Preliminary Analysis. , 2023
Работа посвящена анализу влияния пандемии COVID-19 на экономики стран Северной Африки. Показано, ... more Работа посвящена анализу влияния пандемии COVID-19 на экономики стран Северной Африки. Показано, что пандемия оказала существенное влияние на экономики государств рассматриваемого региона. Несмотря на принятие правительствами североафриканских стран решительных мер по ограничению социального контактирования с целью замедлить распространение вируса, пандемийные последствия существенным образом затормозили экономические и социальные проекты, ухудшив внутреннюю ситуацию. Ведущая страна региона – Египет, в силу своей густонаселенности столкнулась с высокой динамикой распространения коронавируса, однако, лучше всех была подготовлена к финансово-экономической турбулентности, вызванной последствиями COVID-19. Относительно безболезненно с ковидными ограничениями справилась экономика Марокко, показав хорошие темпы восстановительного роста. Экономика Алжира показала медленные темпы экономического роста накануне, во время и после пандемии. Хуже всех пандемийные последствия ощутила на себе экономика Туниса, находившаяся на момент ее начала в глубокой стагнации. Стимулирующие меры привели к кратковременному эффекту и не оказали решающего влияния на тунисскую экономику, которая продолжает показывать низкие темпы экономического развития. Представленные авторами графики динамики общей ВВП и ВВП по покупательной способности наглядно демонстрируют приведенные выводы.
Traditional clan-tribal structures and modern political system of Somalia, 2024
В ходе данного исследования мы пытаемся выявить, какое влияние традиционная кланово-племенная сис... more В ходе данного исследования мы пытаемся выявить, какое влияние традиционная кланово-племенная система оказывает на организацию политической власти в современном Сомали. Для этого производится анализ кланово-племенной принадлежности первых лиц сомалийского государства. Дается описание традиционной кланово-племенной организации сомалийцев, а также современная клановая ситуация в стране. Предпринимается попытка выяснить как кланово-племенная организация влияет на распределение высших государственных должностей. Предлагается объяснение того факта, что представители кланово-племенного объединения раханвейн обычно не занимают посты президента и премьер-министра Сомали и даже не выдвигают своих кандидатов. Приоритетное право на занятие постов президента и премьера на федеральном уровне сохраняется за представителями «благородных» верблюдоводческих суперкланов хавийе и дарод. С другой стороны, за представителями раханвейн зарезервирована позиция спикера парламента, который к тому же должен исполнять функции главы государства-президента в критически важные моменты, когда прежний президент по тем или иным причинам оказывается неспособным выполнять свои обязанности, вплоть до следующих президентских выборов. В целом, проведенное нами исследование показывает, что достигнутые в 2000 г. неформальные артинские договоренности, обеспечившие более или менее приемлемое для всех основных кланово-племенных игроков распределение власти между основными сомалийскими суперкланами, соблюдались в последующие годы с удивительной точностью, и это, несмотря на все те колоссальные потрясения, которые данная страна испытала в XXI веке. Имеются основания полагать, что данное обстоятельство внесло свой вклад в определенную стабилизацию федеральной политической структуры Сомали, сумевшей выдержать ожесточенный натиск со стороны радикальных исламистов.
ОАЭ в борьбе за региональное лидерство, 2023
В статье анализируется эволюция внешней и внутренней политики Объединенных Арабских Эмиратов со в... more В статье анализируется эволюция внешней и внутренней политики Объединенных Арабских Эмиратов со времени образования государства по настоящее время. Продемонстрировано, что практически непрерывный рост экономического развития способствовал привлечению в страну крупных инвестиций и превращению ОАЭ в ведущий финансовый центр Арабского мира. Достижению такого успеха сопутствовал ряд факторов: эффективное управление, предприимчивость элит, а также взаимовыручка двух ведущих эмиратов – Абу-Даби и Дубая. Более того, достигнутая экономическая мощь, сопоставимая с мощью Саудовской Аравии, позволила Эмиратам включиться с борьбу за региональное лидерство в период событий «арабской весны». Важным представляется использование ОАЭ силовых инструментов, которые были ярко проявились в ливийском, сирийском и йеменском кризисах. Отметим, что до «арабской весны» ОАЭ были сосредоточены на укреплении региональных позиций посредством мирной дипломатии и опоры на финансовые ресурсы. При проведении исследования были использованы системный и количественный методы.
Борьба между катарско-турецким и саудовско-эмиратским блоком за влияние в Афганистане, 2022
Th e article is devoted to the analysis of the confrontation between the Qatari-Turkish and Saudi... more Th e article is devoted to the analysis of the confrontation between the Qatari-Turkish and Saudi-Emirate blocs for the influence in the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. It was found out that with the change of power in August 2021 in Afghanistan, a number of regional players tried to assert their infl uence in the country. Qatar was particularly active in strengthening its positions, having managed to close the negotiation process between the United States and the Taliban before they came to power. It is also important that Saudi Arabia and the UAE claimed the role of a diplomatic mediator, but the approval of Qatar's candidacy led to the strengthening of the positions of the Qatari-Turkish alliance. Turkey provided impressive humanitarian assistance to the country, and also jointly with Qatar defended the right to restore an important infrastructure facility – the Kabul airport, which was also claimed by the UAE. Pakistan, which is the military wing of the Taliban, continues to have an important influence on the internal political situation in Afghanistan. The formation of a new Afghan government in the fall of 2021 determined the balance of power in the country in favor of Qatar and Pakistan, which support the political and power bloc, respectively. Saudi Arabia has failed to fi nd the necessary levers of influence on the new Afghan government, but does not lose hope of using Pakistan as its proxy for pressure on the Taliban, in order to prevent the strengthening of the Iranian positions in Afghanistan. Thus, Afghanistan continues to be an arena of struggle for regional influence.
Uchenie zapiski Instituta Afriki RAN
The article presents the results of a historiographical review of foreign scientific literature o... more The article presents the results of a historiographical review of foreign scientific literature on the nature of Islamism in the 21st century. An important role in the foreign discourse of the 21st century was played by the study of the radical component in Islamism, which has various modifications and shades. In addition to studying radicalism and studying the issue of the social base of Islamism, special attention is paid to its political features and definition. The events of the Arab Spring led to speculation about another «decline of Islamism». According to foreign scholars, Islamism failed to achieve the main goal of building an Islamic state in the shortest possible time and underwent revision, resulting in more liberal post–Islamist ideas. There is an attempt to systematize the accumulated knowledge about Islamist ideology.
Uchenie zapiski Instituta Afriki RAN
The article analyzes the role of ideology in building a postcolonial order in the Arab world. Ide... more The article analyzes the role of ideology in building a postcolonial order in the Arab world. Ideology traditionally plays a significant role in the formation of public policy, both foreign and domestic. The formation of the ideological system and its subsequent influence on political processes began after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the early 20th century. The intensified pan-Islamic and pan-Arab tendencies led to national liberation wars and the formation of sovereign states. However, the actual colonial dependence of the countries of the Arab world on the West persisted, which reflected the impossibility of the development and implementation of pan-Arab ideas. In general, pan–Islamic and pan-Arab ideas did not help to get rid of colonial dependence, but became an important basis for the formation of post-colonial ideologies – Arab nationalism and Islamism. The process of decolonization entered an active phase only after the Second World War. The post-war movement of Ara...
Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences
The evolution of Islamism/political Islam as an ideological system is analyzed. This system was f... more The evolution of Islamism/political Islam as an ideological system is analyzed. This system was formed in the 1970s‒1980s and initially played the role of a progressive and alternative model, replacing the previously dominant ideas of Arab nationalism. However, the Islamists failed to fully achieve one of their main goals—the creation of an Islamic state—because of the deterrence of secular authoritarian states. The events in the Persian Gulf and the temporary drop in oil prices in the late 1990s aggravated the ideological crisis of Islamism and led to its rethinking. As a solution, a more liberal version of Islamism was proposed in the form of post-Islamism, which combined Islamic and democratic principles and was focused on duties rather than human rights. The next milestone in liberalizing Islamist ideas was the events of the Arab Spring, which led to a rethinking of post-Islamist ideas, as well as the liberalization and politization of the Salafi doctrine. Moreover, the failures...
Aziâ i Afrika segodnâ, 2022
The article is devoted to the analysis of the confrontation between the Qatari-Turkish and Saudi ... more The article is devoted to the analysis of the confrontation between the Qatari-Turkish and Saudi Emirati blocs for influence in the Republic of Sudan. It was found out that in addition to the traditional struggle for the promotion of interests between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Sudan, a new player appeared in the geopolitical arena in the person of Qatar and Turkey. The Qatari-Turkish bloc was particularly active in strengthening its positions during the events of the "Arab Spring", provoking a reaction from Saudi Arabia and its ally, the United Arab Emirates. To weaken Turkish-Qatari-Sudanese relations, the Saudi-Emirati bloc provided financial and material assistance to Khartoum, which was in a difficult socio-economic situation as a result of the secession of South Sudan. However, the efforts of Saudi Arabia and the UAE did not lead to the desired result and forced them to resort to more decisive actions. As a result of sabotage by the military and economic elites supported by the Saudi-Emirati bloc in the spring of 2019, the thirty-year-old Sudanese regime of O. al-Bashir was overthrown. The military elite came to power, which managed to ease the socio-economic tension in the country. Financial and military assistance from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi played an important role in this. The fall of the regime of O. al-Bashir dealt a serious blow to the positions of Qatar and Turkey in Sudan, simultaneously strengthening the Saudi-Emirati positions. Despite this, Qatar and Turkey have not lost hope of restoring their influence in Sudan and continue to try to establish diplomatic, financial, military and cultural relations.
This article analyses the norms of the Constitution of the Republic of Yemen in 1991, relating to... more This article analyses the norms of the Constitution of the Republic of Yemen in 1991, relating to Sharia and Islam in general. For this purpose, a comparative analysis of the current Constitution of the Republic of Yemen to the previous constitutions of the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen and the Yemen Arab Republic in 1978 and 1970 respectively. It is shown that in the 1991 Constitution the Sharia of Islam was given quite a modest place compared with the previous constitutions of the north and south Yemen. This result is largely due to just a certain compromise between Northern and South Yemeni elites. Parallel analysis of political development allows one to understand the causes of quantitative and qualitative changes in the rules of Islam in these constitutions, as well as gives an approximate forecast of constitutional development.
The work is the result of a conference held on December 2, 2020 by the Center for Civilizational ... more The work is the result of a conference held on December 2, 2020 by the Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies of the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences on the topic «Prospects for destabilization processes in the Middle East and North Africa: before and after the pandemic». The conference program consisted of four working sessions. The problems of the organized conference went beyond the issues stated for discussion and were of an interdisciplinary nature. In particular, several conflict points were identified that arose during the events of the Arab Spring and have not been resolved until today. First of all, these are the Syrian, Libyan and Yemeni crises. COVID-19 has not spared any region of the world. For obvious reasons, developing countries have been particularly hard hit. This includes the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The effects of years of poverty, authoritarianism, corruption and other serious long-term shortcomings have...
Islam in the modern world, 2018
The article is devoted to the analysis of the ideological features of the movement of Arab nation... more The article is devoted to the analysis of the ideological features of the movement of Arab nationalism, which took shape and became popular after the Second world war. Particular attention is paid to the ideas that contributed to the unifi cation of the Arab population throughout the Arab region. These ideas led to the formation of nationalist projects that were aimed to some extent at consolidating the Arab population within one or several countries. Among the most successful nationalist projects are the Egyptian, Iraqi, Syrian, and Algerian and Libyan projects.
Islam in the modern world, 2020
The article is devoted to the analysis of Salafi Islamism. Conservative Salafi Islamism during th... more The article is devoted to the analysis of Salafi Islamism. Conservative Salafi Islamism during the events of the Arab spring received a new development. In particular, the fall of authoritarian regimes and the beginning of the democratic process in the Middle East and North Africa led to the creation of Salafi political parties. The Salafi sts believed, that in a favorable political environment, they would be able to defend their legal status and gain some privileges through participating in parliamentary elections. However, the creation of parties has deepened internal divisions within the Salafi movements. In particular, there were supporters among the Salafi sts, who defended the combination of student and political activities against those who considered participation in the political struggle as a temporary tactical action. The result of the disagreement was the emergence of a reformist movement, that began to see participation in politics as a tool for strengthening the positi...
Islam in the modern world, 2017
егодня Ливанская Республика остается едва ли не единственной страной, которая, пребывая в статусе... more егодня Ливанская Республика остается едва ли не единственной страной, которая, пребывая в статусе подмандатного государства, приняла конституцию, действующую по сей день. Как известно, многие страны Ближнего Востока долгое время находились под протекторатом французских либо английских властей. Одержав победу в борьбе за независимость, бывшие колонии принимали конституции, которые закрепляли новый государственный статус, общественно-политический уклад и т. д. В качестве примера можно привести национально-освободительные движения 1952 г. в Египте, 1958 г. в Ираке, 1954-1962 гг. в Алжире и 1962 г. в Йемене 1 , а также более поздние революционные процессы в Ливии и Судане, которые открыли путь к независимости и принятию новых Основных Законов. Ливанское государство в данной ситуации оказалось исключением. Конституция Ливана была принята 1926 году, во время действия французского мандата на
Vestnik of the Mari State University. Chapter “History. Law”, 2020
The article attempts to analyze projects based on the ideas of Arab nationalism, socialism and Ar... more The article attempts to analyze projects based on the ideas of Arab nationalism, socialism and Arab unity, which were promoted by Arab States to strengthen their own positions in the Arab region. Purpose is to determine the effectiveness of nationalist ideas in integration projects in the Arab region in the second half of the twentieth century. Materials and methods. To reveal the essence of the issue under study, a method of comparative analysis was required, which allowed to consider nationalist projects and identify common and specific features. The systematic method allowed to analyze integration projects based on Arab nationalism and their formation, as well as the features of their application by the States of the Arab region. Results, discussion. By promoting integration projects based on Arab nationalism, Egypt has managed to achieve the status of a regional power. Iraq, Syria, Libya, Tunisia and Algeria have also significantly strengthened their regional positions. However, nationalist projects promoted by the States of the Arab world differed in their duration of existence, most of which were short-lived. One of the main reasons for the short-term projects was the internecine struggle and the lack of a unified development strategy among the members of the Union entity. Conclusion. The analysis revealed that integration projects based on the ideas of Arab nationalism were highly effective. Egypt played a leading role in promoting integration projects during the reign of G.A. Nasser. Among the most successful projects are the United Arab Republic, the Federation of Arab Republics and the Arab Maghreb Union. In addition, Arab nationalism became the ideological basis for uniting Arab States into military coalitions during the Arab-Israeli wars.
Islam in the modern world, 2019
The article is devoted to the analysis of non-violent elements in the anti-terrorist approach of ... more The article is devoted to the analysis of non-violent elements in the anti-terrorist approach of Saudi Arabiaat the present stage. The article consists of three thematic parts. First of all, the authors considered several main factors, leading to the radicalization of the partisans of political Islam. Second, they pointed out some preventive measures that could prevent the dissemination of radical ideas among the Muslim population. The final stage was the consideration of the direct deradicalization program used by Saudi Arabiaagainst those accused of religious terrorism and extremism. The analysis, which had been made, showed that the program of deradicalization used in Saudi Arabiahad demonstrated quite impressive results. Apparently, Saudi Arabia is seriously trying to play a leading role in the middle East, strengthening its position not only through military operations against Islamist radicalism, but also paying great attention to the reasons for the growth of radical convictio...
Islam in the modern world, 2019
The article is devoted to the analysis of the features of a rather specifi c project of Islamism ... more The article is devoted to the analysis of the features of a rather specifi c project of Islamism promoted by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iranian Islamism is based on the ideas of Ayatollah Khomeini about the ideal “Islamic state”, in which Islam has close contact with politics, with the government of the country. However, after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini, the country’s new elite became more pragmatic about the mission of spreading the Shi‘ite version of Islam. In particular, emphasis was placed on rapprochement with those countries and groups that showed friendly feelings to Tehran. In many respects this concerned the countries of the Arab region in which the Shi‘a community was present or prevailed. One of these states is Yemen. In particular, Iran’s participation in the Yemeni crisis, in which Tehran is trying to strengthen its own positions and prevent the strengthening of Saudi positions in Yemen by means of the Zaydi group of the Houthi, is being considered.
Новая и новейшая история, 2019
The article deals with the interaction of the ideas of Arab nationalism and Islam. After the Seco... more The article deals with the interaction of the ideas of Arab nationalism and Islam. After the Second World War, the ideas of Arab nationalism began to gain popularity. The peak movement of Arab nationalism reached in 50-e – 60th years of the twentieth century. With the rise to power of the nationalist elites, Islamist ideas were persecuted because they were incompatible with the ideas of Arab nationalism and socialism. During this period, Islamist ideas have not yet received a full organizational design and were in a deep crisis. In the course of the analysis, it was found that with the establishment of a one-party system, parties and movements of a religious nature were banned or oppressed. In addition, Islamic theological institutions, whose ideas were not comparable to the official ideas of Arab nationalism, were pushed to the background and were persecuted. At the legislative level, the norms relating to Islam and the Sharia as a whole were reduced to the maximum possible extent, with a parallel increase in the norms relating to socialist rhetoric.
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Papers by Timur Khayrullin
Книга предназначена как специалистам в области истории, политологии, так и работникам российского госаппарата, преподавателям и студентам вузов, а также всем, кто интересуется Ближним Востоком и влиянием исламистских движений и исламизма в целом на ситуацию в Ближневосточном регионе.