Papers by Alexey V. Eliseev
Journal of Climate, 2013
ABSTRACT This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models... more ABSTRACT This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to: (i) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories, and (ii) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human timescales. All commitment simulations follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near pre-industrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6–6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP 8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5–8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to pre-industrial levels over 100–1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to pre-industrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Global and Planetary Change, 2015
ABSTRACT Tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSA) may oxidise the photosynthesising tissues if they a... more ABSTRACT Tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSA) may oxidise the photosynthesising tissues if they are taken up by plants. A parametrisation of this impact of tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSA) on the terrestrial gross primary production is suggested. This parametrisation is implemented into the global Earth system model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of the Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). With this coupled model, the simulations are performed which are forced by common anthropogenic and natural climate forcings based on historical reconstructions followed by the RCP 8.5 scenario. The model response to sulphate aerosol loading is subdivided into the climatic (related to the influence of TSA on the radiative transport in the atmosphere) and ecological (related to the toxic influence of sulphate aerosol on terrestrial plants) impacts. We found that the former basically dominates over the latter on the global scale and modifies the responses of the global vegetation and soil carbon stocks to external forcings by 10%. At regional scale, however, ecological impact may be as much important as the climatic one.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Eighth International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics, 2002
ABSTRACT
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Environmental Research Letters, 2014
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Advances in Space Research, 2015
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2010
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Tellus B, 2007
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Tellus B, 2008
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Tellus A, 2007
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Tellus A, 2008
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Geophysical Research, 1999
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Climate, 2013
ABSTRACT This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models... more ABSTRACT This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to: (i) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories, and (ii) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human timescales. All commitment simulations follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near pre-industrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6–6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP 8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5–8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to pre-industrial levels over 100–1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to pre-industrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Global and Planetary Change, 2012
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Climate Dynamics, 2014
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Carbon Balance and Management, 2008
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2011
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2003
ABSTRACT The amplitude phase characteristics (APC) or surface air temperature (SAT) annual cycle ... more ABSTRACT The amplitude phase characteristics (APC) or surface air temperature (SAT) annual cycle (AC) in the Northern Hemisphere are analyzed. From meteorological observations for the 20th century and meteorological reanalyses for its second half, it is found that over land negative correlation of SAT AC amplitude with annual mean SAT dominates. Nevertheless, some exceptions exist. The positive correlation between these two variables is found over the two desert regions: in northern Africa and in Central America. Areas of positive correlations are also found for the northern Pacific and for the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. Southward of the characteristic annual mean snow ice boundary (SIB) position, the shape of the SAT AC becomes more sinusoidal under climate warming. In contrast, northward of it, this shape becomes less sinusoidal. The latter is also found for the above-mentioned two desert regions. In the Far East (southward of about 50°N), the SAT AC shifts as a whole: here its spring and autumn phases occur earlier if the annual mean SAT increases. From energy balance climate considerations, those trends for SAT AC APC in the middle and high latitudes are associated with the influence of the albedo SAT feedback due to the SIB movement. In the Far East the trends are attributed to the interannual cloudiness variability, and in the desert regions, to the influence of a further desertification and/or scattering aerosol loading into the atmosphere. In the north Pacific, the exhibited trends could only be explained as a result of the influence of the greenhouse-gases loading on atmospheric opacity. The trends for SAT AC APC related to the SIB movement are simulated reasonably well by the climate model of intermediate complexity (IAP RAS CM) in the experiment with greenhouse gases atmospheric loading. In contrast, the tendencies resulting from the cloudiness variability are not reproduced by this model. The model also partly simulates the tendencies related to the desertification processes.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Uploads
Papers by Alexey V. Eliseev