Observado.org es la plataforma europea de Ciencia Ciudadana con mayor actividad de recogida de ob... more Observado.org es la plataforma europea de Ciencia Ciudadana con mayor actividad de recogida de observaciones del medio ambiente, con 13 años de experiencia y más de 86 millones de observaciones. Numerosos grupos de trabajo, instituciones y asociaciones, tanto de aficionados como de científicos profesionales, utilizan Observado.org para la recogida y consulta de datos sobre biodiversidad a nivel mundial. Observado.es, el portal local para España, en 2 años de vida ha superado el millón de observaciones de más de 6600 especies. Los usuarios introducen sus observaciones de campo en la plataforma a través del portal Web o desde la aplicación móvil, quedando bajo custodia en los servidores para su consulta y aprovechamiento. Las aplicaciones móviles son elementos fundamentales de Observado.org. Como novedad, la aplicación de Android incluye la funcionalidad de transectos y muestreos puntuales, recopilando información de la ruta seguida, observaciones individuales georeferenciadas y tiemp...
This paper develops and applies a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for environ... more This paper develops and applies a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for environmental and energy policy in a federal state. This regional CGE model differs from the national CGE models by taking into account the interregional mobility of labor, the common product market for the regions and the relations in the multi-level government of the federal state. We illustrate our
The paper studies a regional environmental tax reform in a federal state. In a model with immobil... more The paper studies a regional environmental tax reform in a federal state. In a model with immobile labour, mobile capital and mobile polluting input in the production function, one region increases its pollution taxes and recycles the excess tax revenues by lowering either pre-existing distorting labour or capital taxes. This choice determines whether the non-environmental efficiency of the regional tax system improves or gets worse. Moreover, the regional tax reform changes the level of the federal budget through the vertical tax externality effect. We illustrate the magnitude of the different effects with simulations for a country with only 2 regions (Belgium) and a country with 50 regions (US).
This report analyses global transition pathways to a low Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions economy. ... more This report analyses global transition pathways to a low Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions economy. The main scenarios presented have been designed to be compatible with the 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets put forward in the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, in order to minimise irreversible climate damages. Reaching these targets requires action from all world countries and in all economic sectors. Global net GHG emissions would have to drop to zero by around 2080 to limit temperature increase to 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times (by around 2065 for the 1.5°C limit). The analysis shows that this ambitious low-carbon transition can be achieved with robust economic growth, implying small mitigation costs. Results furthermore highlight that the combination of climate and air policies can contribute to improving air quality across the globe, thus enabling progress on the UN Sustainable Development Goals for climate action, clean energy and good health. Key uncertainties in future pathways ...
This paper presents a model-based assessment of the United Nations-led round of international cli... more This paper presents a model-based assessment of the United Nations-led round of international climate change negotiations in Paris in December 2015 (COP21). We combine a technology-rich bottom-up energy system model with a top-down economic model that captures economy-wide interactions. We analyse the impact of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) by the individual countries put forward in the run-up to COP21 on greenhouse gas emissions, energy demand and supply, and the wider economic effects, including the implications for trade flows and employment levels. We also illustrate how the gap between the Paris pledges and a pathway that is likely to restrict global warming to 2°C can be bridged, taking into account both equity and efficiency considerations. Results indicate that energy demand reduction and a decarbonisation of the power sector are important contributors to overall emission reductions up to 2050. Further, the analysis shows that global action to cut ...
The report describes the importance of oil for oil exporting countries and analyses the potential... more The report describes the importance of oil for oil exporting countries and analyses the potential economic effects that current low oil prices may have in their economy and political stability. Firstly, the report describes the main drivers that have led to the present low oil prices. Secondly, descriptive statistics are employed to show the exposure of the main oil exporting countries to the oil price, where GDP and government revenue is found to be closely correlated to the oil price. In general, several Sub-Saharan African and North African countries show high risk due to the high exposure of their economy and of their government revenue combined with limited reserves per capita. Secondly, the macro-economic effects of a 60% fall in the price of oil is analysed with the GEM-E3 model, which is an stylized representation of the oil market change over the last two years. The results show that such an oil price drop has different effects across oil exporting countries, unsurprisingly...
This paper develops and applies a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for environ... more This paper develops and applies a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for environmental and energy policy in a federal state. This regional CGE model differs from the national CGE models by taking into account the interregional mobility of labor, the common product market across the regions and the explicit modeling of two government levels within one nation. We illustrate our regional CGE model with an analysis of the NEC Directive 1 in Belgium. The NEC Directive sets upper limits for each EU member state in 2010 for the total emissions of four pollutants, responsible for acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone pollution. These pollutants are sulphur dioxide (SO 2), nitrogen oxides (NO x), volatile organic compounds (VOC), and ammonia (NH 3). Whereas the earliest policy-oriented computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies were developed in the 1970s 2 , CGE models applied to regional economies are more recent. One possible reason for the scarcity and late start of regional CGE modeling is its complexity and implementation cost. The costs of regional CGE models may outweigh the benefits. First, CGE models are very data intensive, requiring data on industry output, industry technology, consumption and investment expenditures, government expenditures and taxes, trade flows, 1 Officially known as Directive 2001/81/EC of the European Parliament and the Council on National Emission Ceilings for certain pollutants (NECs). 2 For an overview, see Partridge and Rickman (1998).
The Paris Agreement reinforced the objective of keeping global temperature rise well below 2°C, a... more The Paris Agreement reinforced the objective of keeping global temperature rise well below 2°C, and of pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Such low stabilization requires swift action and an almost full-scale decarbonization of energy systems worldwide. Over the past four years ADVANCE has improved Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) to better quantify the requirements for climate stabilization and the implications of international climate agreements, including the implications of the Paris Climate Agreement.
The report describes the importance of oil for the EU economy and analyses the potential economic... more The report describes the importance of oil for the EU economy and analyses the potential economic effects that current low oil prices since mid-2014 may have in the EU28 economy. Further it assesses how the current oil price decrease may evolve up to 2020 and the consequences for global oil consumption. The analysis shows that a decrease of the oil price from US$100 to US$50 may lead to a GDP gain of about 0.7%, both on a global level and in the EU28, driven by private consumption and investment. The global gains are not evenly distributed. Net oil importing countries gain, whereas oil exporting countries lose. The analysis mainly focuses on the EU28 and it shows that the more oil-intensive countries and sectors gain more than the rest of the economy. A 50% decrease of the oil price may generate up to 3 million additional jobs (1.3% of the total labour force). Interestingly, oil-intensive sectors do not necessarily improve their competitiveness vis-A -vis their competitors in other ...
This paper considers a metropolitan area where residents can commute between several jurisdiction... more This paper considers a metropolitan area where residents can commute between several jurisdictions. These residents show NIMBY behavior (Not-In-My-Backyard). They try to preserve their living quality by pushing their polluting economic activity to the neighboring jurisdictions, while keeping their labor income as commuters. This induces a race-to-the-top among jurisdictions. Fiercer competition due to a higher number of jurisdictions intensifies this race-to-the-top; commuting costs, pollution taxes, payroll taxes and bigger jurisdictions increase rather than decrease the incentive for more pollution.
This paper analyses the instrument choice of special interest groups for suburban environmental p... more This paper analyses the instrument choice of special interest groups for suburban environmental policy in a metropolitan area, consisting of a suburb and a business centre. In our theoretical model, we show that when special interest groups set suburban policy, the specific nature of their endowments determines their instrument preferences. The degree of commuting and initial tax levels may influence the ranking of the instruments. Further, our paper discusses how commuting affects the income distribution in both suburb and business region. An appropriate instrument choice allows the suburb to shift a part of the costs of environmental policy to the business centre. These results may be relevant in terms of regional environmental policy.
There are increasing numbers of published articles in the field of input–output analysis and mode... more There are increasing numbers of published articles in the field of input–output analysis and modelling that use the GTAP input–output database; particularly, in relation to the estimation of carbon, energy and water footprints and the analysis of global value chains and international trade. The policy relevance of those topics is also increasing, thus calling for consistently linking these databases with official statistics. Although, so far, GTAP has been using their own classification and reconciliation methods, this paper develops a new conversion method for the EU that guarantees that the EU-GTAP database respects the new statistical standards and Eurostat official statistics. We recommend for future updates, a shift of the current GTAP classification of industries to the new official standard classifications to which countries are progressively moving to. Otherwise, the lack of matching official data would jeopardize the usefulness of such database. This method can be extended ...
From a price range between 100 and 120 USD (U.S. dollars) per barrel in 2011-2014, the crude oil ... more From a price range between 100 and 120 USD (U.S. dollars) per barrel in 2011-2014, the crude oil price fell from mid-2014 onwards, reaching a level of 26 USD per barrel in January 2016. Here we assess the economic consequences of this strong decrease in the oil price. A retrospective analysis based on data of the past 25 years sheds light on the vulnerability of oil-producing regions to the oil price volatility. Gross domestic product (GDP) and government revenues in many Gulf countries exhibit a strong dependence on oil, while more diversified economies improve resilience to oil price shocks. The lack of a sovereign wealth fund, in combination with limited oil reserves, makes parts of Sub-Saharan Africa particularly vulnerable to sustained periods of low oil prices. Next, we estimate the macroeconomic impacts of a 60% oil price drop for all regions in the world. A numerical simulation yields a global GDP increase of roughly 1% and illustrates how the regional impact on GDP relates to oil export dependence. Finally, we reflect on the broader implications (such as migration flows) of macroeconomic responses to oil prices and look ahead to the challenge of structural change in a world committed to limiting global warming.
Observado.org es la plataforma europea de Ciencia Ciudadana con mayor actividad de recogida de ob... more Observado.org es la plataforma europea de Ciencia Ciudadana con mayor actividad de recogida de observaciones del medio ambiente, con 13 años de experiencia y más de 86 millones de observaciones. Numerosos grupos de trabajo, instituciones y asociaciones, tanto de aficionados como de científicos profesionales, utilizan Observado.org para la recogida y consulta de datos sobre biodiversidad a nivel mundial. Observado.es, el portal local para España, en 2 años de vida ha superado el millón de observaciones de más de 6600 especies. Los usuarios introducen sus observaciones de campo en la plataforma a través del portal Web o desde la aplicación móvil, quedando bajo custodia en los servidores para su consulta y aprovechamiento. Las aplicaciones móviles son elementos fundamentales de Observado.org. Como novedad, la aplicación de Android incluye la funcionalidad de transectos y muestreos puntuales, recopilando información de la ruta seguida, observaciones individuales georeferenciadas y tiemp...
This paper develops and applies a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for environ... more This paper develops and applies a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for environmental and energy policy in a federal state. This regional CGE model differs from the national CGE models by taking into account the interregional mobility of labor, the common product market for the regions and the relations in the multi-level government of the federal state. We illustrate our
The paper studies a regional environmental tax reform in a federal state. In a model with immobil... more The paper studies a regional environmental tax reform in a federal state. In a model with immobile labour, mobile capital and mobile polluting input in the production function, one region increases its pollution taxes and recycles the excess tax revenues by lowering either pre-existing distorting labour or capital taxes. This choice determines whether the non-environmental efficiency of the regional tax system improves or gets worse. Moreover, the regional tax reform changes the level of the federal budget through the vertical tax externality effect. We illustrate the magnitude of the different effects with simulations for a country with only 2 regions (Belgium) and a country with 50 regions (US).
This report analyses global transition pathways to a low Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions economy. ... more This report analyses global transition pathways to a low Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions economy. The main scenarios presented have been designed to be compatible with the 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets put forward in the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, in order to minimise irreversible climate damages. Reaching these targets requires action from all world countries and in all economic sectors. Global net GHG emissions would have to drop to zero by around 2080 to limit temperature increase to 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times (by around 2065 for the 1.5°C limit). The analysis shows that this ambitious low-carbon transition can be achieved with robust economic growth, implying small mitigation costs. Results furthermore highlight that the combination of climate and air policies can contribute to improving air quality across the globe, thus enabling progress on the UN Sustainable Development Goals for climate action, clean energy and good health. Key uncertainties in future pathways ...
This paper presents a model-based assessment of the United Nations-led round of international cli... more This paper presents a model-based assessment of the United Nations-led round of international climate change negotiations in Paris in December 2015 (COP21). We combine a technology-rich bottom-up energy system model with a top-down economic model that captures economy-wide interactions. We analyse the impact of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) by the individual countries put forward in the run-up to COP21 on greenhouse gas emissions, energy demand and supply, and the wider economic effects, including the implications for trade flows and employment levels. We also illustrate how the gap between the Paris pledges and a pathway that is likely to restrict global warming to 2°C can be bridged, taking into account both equity and efficiency considerations. Results indicate that energy demand reduction and a decarbonisation of the power sector are important contributors to overall emission reductions up to 2050. Further, the analysis shows that global action to cut ...
The report describes the importance of oil for oil exporting countries and analyses the potential... more The report describes the importance of oil for oil exporting countries and analyses the potential economic effects that current low oil prices may have in their economy and political stability. Firstly, the report describes the main drivers that have led to the present low oil prices. Secondly, descriptive statistics are employed to show the exposure of the main oil exporting countries to the oil price, where GDP and government revenue is found to be closely correlated to the oil price. In general, several Sub-Saharan African and North African countries show high risk due to the high exposure of their economy and of their government revenue combined with limited reserves per capita. Secondly, the macro-economic effects of a 60% fall in the price of oil is analysed with the GEM-E3 model, which is an stylized representation of the oil market change over the last two years. The results show that such an oil price drop has different effects across oil exporting countries, unsurprisingly...
This paper develops and applies a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for environ... more This paper develops and applies a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for environmental and energy policy in a federal state. This regional CGE model differs from the national CGE models by taking into account the interregional mobility of labor, the common product market across the regions and the explicit modeling of two government levels within one nation. We illustrate our regional CGE model with an analysis of the NEC Directive 1 in Belgium. The NEC Directive sets upper limits for each EU member state in 2010 for the total emissions of four pollutants, responsible for acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone pollution. These pollutants are sulphur dioxide (SO 2), nitrogen oxides (NO x), volatile organic compounds (VOC), and ammonia (NH 3). Whereas the earliest policy-oriented computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies were developed in the 1970s 2 , CGE models applied to regional economies are more recent. One possible reason for the scarcity and late start of regional CGE modeling is its complexity and implementation cost. The costs of regional CGE models may outweigh the benefits. First, CGE models are very data intensive, requiring data on industry output, industry technology, consumption and investment expenditures, government expenditures and taxes, trade flows, 1 Officially known as Directive 2001/81/EC of the European Parliament and the Council on National Emission Ceilings for certain pollutants (NECs). 2 For an overview, see Partridge and Rickman (1998).
The Paris Agreement reinforced the objective of keeping global temperature rise well below 2°C, a... more The Paris Agreement reinforced the objective of keeping global temperature rise well below 2°C, and of pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Such low stabilization requires swift action and an almost full-scale decarbonization of energy systems worldwide. Over the past four years ADVANCE has improved Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) to better quantify the requirements for climate stabilization and the implications of international climate agreements, including the implications of the Paris Climate Agreement.
The report describes the importance of oil for the EU economy and analyses the potential economic... more The report describes the importance of oil for the EU economy and analyses the potential economic effects that current low oil prices since mid-2014 may have in the EU28 economy. Further it assesses how the current oil price decrease may evolve up to 2020 and the consequences for global oil consumption. The analysis shows that a decrease of the oil price from US$100 to US$50 may lead to a GDP gain of about 0.7%, both on a global level and in the EU28, driven by private consumption and investment. The global gains are not evenly distributed. Net oil importing countries gain, whereas oil exporting countries lose. The analysis mainly focuses on the EU28 and it shows that the more oil-intensive countries and sectors gain more than the rest of the economy. A 50% decrease of the oil price may generate up to 3 million additional jobs (1.3% of the total labour force). Interestingly, oil-intensive sectors do not necessarily improve their competitiveness vis-A -vis their competitors in other ...
This paper considers a metropolitan area where residents can commute between several jurisdiction... more This paper considers a metropolitan area where residents can commute between several jurisdictions. These residents show NIMBY behavior (Not-In-My-Backyard). They try to preserve their living quality by pushing their polluting economic activity to the neighboring jurisdictions, while keeping their labor income as commuters. This induces a race-to-the-top among jurisdictions. Fiercer competition due to a higher number of jurisdictions intensifies this race-to-the-top; commuting costs, pollution taxes, payroll taxes and bigger jurisdictions increase rather than decrease the incentive for more pollution.
This paper analyses the instrument choice of special interest groups for suburban environmental p... more This paper analyses the instrument choice of special interest groups for suburban environmental policy in a metropolitan area, consisting of a suburb and a business centre. In our theoretical model, we show that when special interest groups set suburban policy, the specific nature of their endowments determines their instrument preferences. The degree of commuting and initial tax levels may influence the ranking of the instruments. Further, our paper discusses how commuting affects the income distribution in both suburb and business region. An appropriate instrument choice allows the suburb to shift a part of the costs of environmental policy to the business centre. These results may be relevant in terms of regional environmental policy.
There are increasing numbers of published articles in the field of input–output analysis and mode... more There are increasing numbers of published articles in the field of input–output analysis and modelling that use the GTAP input–output database; particularly, in relation to the estimation of carbon, energy and water footprints and the analysis of global value chains and international trade. The policy relevance of those topics is also increasing, thus calling for consistently linking these databases with official statistics. Although, so far, GTAP has been using their own classification and reconciliation methods, this paper develops a new conversion method for the EU that guarantees that the EU-GTAP database respects the new statistical standards and Eurostat official statistics. We recommend for future updates, a shift of the current GTAP classification of industries to the new official standard classifications to which countries are progressively moving to. Otherwise, the lack of matching official data would jeopardize the usefulness of such database. This method can be extended ...
From a price range between 100 and 120 USD (U.S. dollars) per barrel in 2011-2014, the crude oil ... more From a price range between 100 and 120 USD (U.S. dollars) per barrel in 2011-2014, the crude oil price fell from mid-2014 onwards, reaching a level of 26 USD per barrel in January 2016. Here we assess the economic consequences of this strong decrease in the oil price. A retrospective analysis based on data of the past 25 years sheds light on the vulnerability of oil-producing regions to the oil price volatility. Gross domestic product (GDP) and government revenues in many Gulf countries exhibit a strong dependence on oil, while more diversified economies improve resilience to oil price shocks. The lack of a sovereign wealth fund, in combination with limited oil reserves, makes parts of Sub-Saharan Africa particularly vulnerable to sustained periods of low oil prices. Next, we estimate the macroeconomic impacts of a 60% oil price drop for all regions in the world. A numerical simulation yields a global GDP increase of roughly 1% and illustrates how the regional impact on GDP relates to oil export dependence. Finally, we reflect on the broader implications (such as migration flows) of macroeconomic responses to oil prices and look ahead to the challenge of structural change in a world committed to limiting global warming.
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