The ability to anticipate urbanization impacts on streamflow regimes is critical to developing pr... more The ability to anticipate urbanization impacts on streamflow regimes is critical to developing proactive strategies that protect aquatic ecosystems. We developed an interdisciplinary modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness of integrated stormwater management (i.e., integration of strategic land-use organization with site-scale stormwater BMPs) or its absence, and two regional growth patterns for maintaining streamflow regimes. We applied a three-step sequence to three urbanizing catchment basins in Oregon, to: (1) simulate landscape change under four future development scenarios with the agentbased model Envision; (2) model resultant hydrological change using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT); and (3) assess scenario impacts on streamflow regimes using 10 flow metrics that encompass all major flow components. Our results projected significant flow regime changes in all three basins. Urbanization impacts aligned closely with increases in flow regime flashiness and severity of extreme flow events. Most changes were associated with negative impacts on native aquatic organisms in the Pacific Northwest. Scenario comparisons highlighted the importance of integrated stormwater management for reducing flow alterations, and secondarily, compact growth. Based on a flow metric sensitivity typology, six flow metrics were insensitive to development in multiple basins, and four were sensitive to development and manageable with mitigation in multiple basins. Only three metrics were ever sensitive to development and resistant to mitigation, and only in one basin each. Our findings call for regional flow-ecology research that identifies the ecological significance of each flow metric, explores potential remedies for resistant ones and develops specific targets for manageable ones.
Humans have significantly altered the redistribution of water in intensively managed hydrologic s... more Humans have significantly altered the redistribution of water in intensively managed hydrologic systems, shifting the spatiotemporal patterns of surface water. Evaluating water availability requires integration of hydrologic processes and associated human influences. In this study, we summarize the development and evaluation of an extensible hydrologic model that explicitly integrates water rights to spatially distribute irrigation waters in a semi-arid agricultural region in the Western United States, using the Envision integrated modeling platform. The model captures both human and biophysical systems, particularly the diversion of water from the Boise River, which is the main water source that supports irrigated agriculture in this region. In agricultural areas, water demand is estimated as a function of crop type and local environmental conditions. Surface water to meet crop demand is diverted from the stream reaches, constrained by the amount of water available in the stream, t...
Climate adaptation planning faces three central types of uncertainties: How much climate change w... more Climate adaptation planning faces three central types of uncertainties: How much climate change will occur? How will ecosystems respond to a given level of climate change? How will people respond to resultant changes in ecosystems? We address these issues by ...
Issues facing the EC such as the enlargement of the EU, depopulation of rural areas and improving... more Issues facing the EC such as the enlargement of the EU, depopulation of rural areas and improving the quality of ground and surface water can only be resolved through integrated analysis of the subsystems of a socio-agro-economic system. Integrated analyses frequently involve integrated modelling, but models of these subsystems have typically been developed by researchers from different scientific disciplines, with little attention to the integration across spatial and temporal scales.
Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level... more Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the...
The model described here involves a highly mechanistic view of anaerobic attached growth processe... more The model described here involves a highly mechanistic view of anaerobic attached growth processes, considering a four-culture microbial population interacting with and transforming six metabolic substrates in two distinct reactor regions. These regions include (1) the biofilm zone, which is a thin layer consisting of highly concentrated bacterial mass embedded within a polysaccharide matrix; and (2) the bulk liquid region, corresponding to the interstitial volume surrounding the biomass support media. Mathematical descriptions of bacterial population dynamics and associated substrate transformation rates in both of these regions are presented. This model, because of its detailed description of fundamental processes in attached growth fermentation systems, provides an analytical tool for exploring both porous and solid media anaerobic reactor systems. 42 refs., 8 figs., 5 tabs.
Sea level rise (SLR), changing storminess patterns, and development have exposed coastal communit... more Sea level rise (SLR), changing storminess patterns, and development have exposed coastal communities to chronic coastal change and flooding hazards. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest communities are at high risk from coastal hazards and local decision makers often lack tools for developing adaptive capacity to increase resilience, particularly under climate change. Several sectors (e.g., local community groups, emergency managers, and land use planners) have recently begun to define responses to perceived increases in the frequency and magnitude of coastal hazards. Here we describe the efforts of a group of Oregon State University researchers and students, outreach specialists, and coastal community members in both Tillamook County, OR and Grays Harbor County, WA who are assessing climate change impacts and associated evolving community and ecosystem resilience.
The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with ... more The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with life cycle assessment (LCA) and economic analysis models using a GIS-based integrated platform, ENVISION. The integrated model enables LCA practitioners to conduct integrated economic analysis and LCA on a regional scale while capturing the variability of soil emissions due to variation in regional factors during production of crops and biofuel feedstocks. In order to evaluate the integrated model, the corn-soybean cropping system in Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana was studied and the integrated model was used to first model the soil emissions and then conduct the LCA as well as economic analysis. The results showed that the variation in soil emissions due to variation in weather is high causing some locations to be carbon sink in some years and source of CO in other years. In order to test the model under different scenarios, two tillage scenarios were defined: 1) conventional tillage (C...
The Open Modeling Environment (OME) is an open-source System Dynamics (SD) simulation engine whic... more The Open Modeling Environment (OME) is an open-source System Dynamics (SD) simulation engine which has been created as a joint project between Oregon State University and the US Environmental Protection Agency. It is designed around a modular implementation, and provides a standardized interface for interacting with spatially explicit data while still supporting the standard SD model components. OME can be run as a standalone simulation or as a plugin to a larger simulation framework, and is capable of importing Models from several SD model formats, including Simile model files, Vensim model files, and the XMILE interchange format. While it has been released, OME is still under development, and a number of potential future improvements are discussed. To help illustrate the utility of OME, an example model design process is provided as an Appendix.
The ability to anticipate urbanization impacts on streamflow regimes is critical to developing pr... more The ability to anticipate urbanization impacts on streamflow regimes is critical to developing proactive strategies that protect aquatic ecosystems. We developed an interdisciplinary modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness of integrated stormwater management (i.e., integration of strategic land-use organization with site-scale stormwater BMPs) or its absence, and two regional growth patterns for maintaining streamflow regimes. We applied a three-step sequence to three urbanizing catchment basins in Oregon, to: (1) simulate landscape change under four future development scenarios with the agentbased model Envision; (2) model resultant hydrological change using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT); and (3) assess scenario impacts on streamflow regimes using 10 flow metrics that encompass all major flow components. Our results projected significant flow regime changes in all three basins. Urbanization impacts aligned closely with increases in flow regime flashiness and severity of extreme flow events. Most changes were associated with negative impacts on native aquatic organisms in the Pacific Northwest. Scenario comparisons highlighted the importance of integrated stormwater management for reducing flow alterations, and secondarily, compact growth. Based on a flow metric sensitivity typology, six flow metrics were insensitive to development in multiple basins, and four were sensitive to development and manageable with mitigation in multiple basins. Only three metrics were ever sensitive to development and resistant to mitigation, and only in one basin each. Our findings call for regional flow-ecology research that identifies the ecological significance of each flow metric, explores potential remedies for resistant ones and develops specific targets for manageable ones.
Humans have significantly altered the redistribution of water in intensively managed hydrologic s... more Humans have significantly altered the redistribution of water in intensively managed hydrologic systems, shifting the spatiotemporal patterns of surface water. Evaluating water availability requires integration of hydrologic processes and associated human influences. In this study, we summarize the development and evaluation of an extensible hydrologic model that explicitly integrates water rights to spatially distribute irrigation waters in a semi-arid agricultural region in the Western United States, using the Envision integrated modeling platform. The model captures both human and biophysical systems, particularly the diversion of water from the Boise River, which is the main water source that supports irrigated agriculture in this region. In agricultural areas, water demand is estimated as a function of crop type and local environmental conditions. Surface water to meet crop demand is diverted from the stream reaches, constrained by the amount of water available in the stream, t...
Climate adaptation planning faces three central types of uncertainties: How much climate change w... more Climate adaptation planning faces three central types of uncertainties: How much climate change will occur? How will ecosystems respond to a given level of climate change? How will people respond to resultant changes in ecosystems? We address these issues by ...
Issues facing the EC such as the enlargement of the EU, depopulation of rural areas and improving... more Issues facing the EC such as the enlargement of the EU, depopulation of rural areas and improving the quality of ground and surface water can only be resolved through integrated analysis of the subsystems of a socio-agro-economic system. Integrated analyses frequently involve integrated modelling, but models of these subsystems have typically been developed by researchers from different scientific disciplines, with little attention to the integration across spatial and temporal scales.
Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level... more Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the...
The model described here involves a highly mechanistic view of anaerobic attached growth processe... more The model described here involves a highly mechanistic view of anaerobic attached growth processes, considering a four-culture microbial population interacting with and transforming six metabolic substrates in two distinct reactor regions. These regions include (1) the biofilm zone, which is a thin layer consisting of highly concentrated bacterial mass embedded within a polysaccharide matrix; and (2) the bulk liquid region, corresponding to the interstitial volume surrounding the biomass support media. Mathematical descriptions of bacterial population dynamics and associated substrate transformation rates in both of these regions are presented. This model, because of its detailed description of fundamental processes in attached growth fermentation systems, provides an analytical tool for exploring both porous and solid media anaerobic reactor systems. 42 refs., 8 figs., 5 tabs.
Sea level rise (SLR), changing storminess patterns, and development have exposed coastal communit... more Sea level rise (SLR), changing storminess patterns, and development have exposed coastal communities to chronic coastal change and flooding hazards. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest communities are at high risk from coastal hazards and local decision makers often lack tools for developing adaptive capacity to increase resilience, particularly under climate change. Several sectors (e.g., local community groups, emergency managers, and land use planners) have recently begun to define responses to perceived increases in the frequency and magnitude of coastal hazards. Here we describe the efforts of a group of Oregon State University researchers and students, outreach specialists, and coastal community members in both Tillamook County, OR and Grays Harbor County, WA who are assessing climate change impacts and associated evolving community and ecosystem resilience.
The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with ... more The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with life cycle assessment (LCA) and economic analysis models using a GIS-based integrated platform, ENVISION. The integrated model enables LCA practitioners to conduct integrated economic analysis and LCA on a regional scale while capturing the variability of soil emissions due to variation in regional factors during production of crops and biofuel feedstocks. In order to evaluate the integrated model, the corn-soybean cropping system in Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana was studied and the integrated model was used to first model the soil emissions and then conduct the LCA as well as economic analysis. The results showed that the variation in soil emissions due to variation in weather is high causing some locations to be carbon sink in some years and source of CO in other years. In order to test the model under different scenarios, two tillage scenarios were defined: 1) conventional tillage (C...
The Open Modeling Environment (OME) is an open-source System Dynamics (SD) simulation engine whic... more The Open Modeling Environment (OME) is an open-source System Dynamics (SD) simulation engine which has been created as a joint project between Oregon State University and the US Environmental Protection Agency. It is designed around a modular implementation, and provides a standardized interface for interacting with spatially explicit data while still supporting the standard SD model components. OME can be run as a standalone simulation or as a plugin to a larger simulation framework, and is capable of importing Models from several SD model formats, including Simile model files, Vensim model files, and the XMILE interchange format. While it has been released, OME is still under development, and a number of potential future improvements are discussed. To help illustrate the utility of OME, an example model design process is provided as an Appendix.
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Papers by John Bolte
organization with site-scale stormwater BMPs) or its absence, and two regional growth patterns for maintaining streamflow regimes. We applied a three-step sequence to three urbanizing catchment basins in Oregon, to: (1) simulate landscape change under four future development scenarios with the agentbased
model Envision; (2) model resultant hydrological change using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT); and (3) assess scenario impacts on streamflow regimes using 10 flow metrics that encompass all major flow components. Our results projected significant flow regime changes in all three basins.
Urbanization impacts aligned closely with increases in flow regime flashiness and severity of extreme flow events. Most changes were associated with negative impacts on native aquatic organisms in the Pacific Northwest. Scenario comparisons highlighted the importance of integrated stormwater management for reducing flow alterations, and secondarily, compact growth. Based on a flow metric sensitivity
typology, six flow metrics were insensitive to development in multiple basins, and four were sensitive to development and manageable with mitigation in multiple basins. Only three metrics were ever sensitive to development and resistant to mitigation, and only in one basin each. Our findings call for regional flow-ecology research that identifies the ecological significance of each flow metric, explores potential remedies for resistant ones and develops specific targets for manageable ones.
organization with site-scale stormwater BMPs) or its absence, and two regional growth patterns for maintaining streamflow regimes. We applied a three-step sequence to three urbanizing catchment basins in Oregon, to: (1) simulate landscape change under four future development scenarios with the agentbased
model Envision; (2) model resultant hydrological change using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT); and (3) assess scenario impacts on streamflow regimes using 10 flow metrics that encompass all major flow components. Our results projected significant flow regime changes in all three basins.
Urbanization impacts aligned closely with increases in flow regime flashiness and severity of extreme flow events. Most changes were associated with negative impacts on native aquatic organisms in the Pacific Northwest. Scenario comparisons highlighted the importance of integrated stormwater management for reducing flow alterations, and secondarily, compact growth. Based on a flow metric sensitivity
typology, six flow metrics were insensitive to development in multiple basins, and four were sensitive to development and manageable with mitigation in multiple basins. Only three metrics were ever sensitive to development and resistant to mitigation, and only in one basin each. Our findings call for regional flow-ecology research that identifies the ecological significance of each flow metric, explores potential remedies for resistant ones and develops specific targets for manageable ones.