Papers by Frank Den Butter
The same economic mechanism, namely that of contagion, underlies the current economic crisis due ... more The same economic mechanism, namely that of contagion, underlies the current economic crisis due to the corona virus as the 2008 credit crisis. Where credit problems spread rapidly in the financial world in 2008, the corona virus spreads rapidly over the world population at the start of 2020. From that perspective, this article discusses the similarities and differences between the credit and corona crises and draws lessons for policy makers. One lesson is that adequate macro-prudential supervision could have prevented the contagion risk in the globally entangled financial markets and thus the credit crisis. Likewise, curtailment of business and leisure travel could have prevented worldwide coronavirus infection. Moreover, policies to mitigate the effects of the corona crisis should not lead to a debt crisis, as in the case of the credit crisis.
Prof.dr. F.A.G. den Butter is hoogleraar Algemene Economie aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, i... more Prof.dr. F.A.G. den Butter is hoogleraar Algemene Economie aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, is tevens verbonden aan het Tinberpen Instituut en is leider van de onderzoeksgoep ALERT (Applied Labour Economie Research Team). Drs. E. van Garneren is als AIO werkzaam bij de Vrije Universiteit (ALERT) en het Tinbergen Instituut en bereidt een proefschrift voor over arbeidsstromen binnen bedrijven.
De keuze tussen werk, inkomen en vrije tijd F.A.G. den &utter A.!? van Vuuren Research Memorandum... more De keuze tussen werk, inkomen en vrije tijd F.A.G. den &utter A.!? van Vuuren Research Memorandum 1996-39 applied labour economics research team vrije Universiteit amstevdatn 29 augustus 2996 De keuze tussen werk, inkomen en vrije tijd F.A.G. den Butrer en A.P. van Vu~iren' De groei van de werkgelegenheid is de resultante van de economische groei en de groei van de arbeidsproductiviteit. Deze rekenregel. is cruciaal in de huidige macro-economische problematiek E n ons land, waar een toename van de arbeidsparticipatie en een duurzame economische groei de voornaainste beleidsdoelstel l ingen zijn. Immers, indien de economische groei hoger uitkomt dan de sti,jging van de arbeidsproductiviteit. zal de werkgelegenheid toenemen. Wanneer daarentegen de ecnnomische groei achterblijft hij de toename van de arbeidsproductiviteit neemt de werkgelegenheid af en komt de participatie-doelstel l ing in de klem. Wat zijn nu de vonruitzich~sn voor ons land in dit krachtenveld van heleidswensen? Het behoedzame scenarjo dat het Centraal Planhrtreau voor de iniddeltange termijn, d.w.z. de periode 1997-2000 heeft opgesteld, vocinpelt een rsEle groei van het nationaal inkomen met 270 per jaar en een toename van de arbeidsproductiviteit in de marktsector met I 3/4 % per jaar. Het bete.kkent clat per saldci de werkgelegenheid slechts in geringe mate kan toenemen. Deze toename is cinvoldoentle om het exrra atheidsaanhiid te atisorheren zodat volgens het behoedzame scenario de werkloosheid in de komende vier jaar in geringe mare ral stijgen'. Het onlangs verschenen middellange termijn-advies van de SER vindt deze economische groei van 2 % onvoldoende en hoopt via een kwaIiteitsstrategie. waarbij ruim baan wordt gegeven aan Je technritogische ontwikkeling. uit te komen op een groeipercentage van 3 % per jaar'. Daarhii wordt echter in het midden gelaten welke gevolgen deze nadruk op de technologische tintwikkeling voor de arheidsprodrictiviteit, en dus voor de werkgelegenheid zal hebben. Her CPB heeft nok een gunstig scenario voor de periode 1997-2000 opgesteld, waarhij het br ti ti^ binnenlands product, conform de wens van de SER, met 3 % toeneemt en de arbeidsprticiitcti\~iteit van de marktsector inet 2 114 % per jaar. In dit scenario is de groei van (Ie werkpele_renheicl. v~iltliiende om de toename van het arbeidsaanbod te compenseren. zodat de .\verkli~osheid licht kan dalen. Beicle aiiteirrs zijn verhlinclen aan d¢ vakgrriep Algemene E~cinomie, Onderzoeksgroep Toegepaste Arheiclseccinomie (ALERT). Vrije Universiteit. Amsterdam. De auteurs danken Ron Hogenboiiiii voor zi,jn kidrage aan dit artikel.
and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requi... more and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
Economist-netherlands, 2003
This paper models the propagation at the macro level of four types of shocks using the SVAR appro... more This paper models the propagation at the macro level of four types of shocks using the SVAR approach. Time series data for the Netherlands on job creation, job destruction, the number of vacancies and labour supply are used to identify aggregate demand and supply shocks, and reallocation demand and supply shocks as different sources of unemployment dynamics. Each of these
Internationale verknoping aan basis van krediet-en coronacrisis den Butter, Frank published in Ec... more Internationale verknoping aan basis van krediet-en coronacrisis den Butter, Frank published in Economisch Statistische Berichten 2020 document version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication in VU Research Portal citation for published version (APA) den Butter, F. (2020). Internationale verknoping aan basis van krediet-en coronacrisis. Economisch Statistische Berichten, 105(4784), 150-152. https://esb.nu/esb/20059202/internationale-verknoping-aan-basis-van-kredieten-coronacrisis General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
Me Judice, Sep 8, 2020
In the new pension system in the Netherlands- according to the July 2020 agreement between social... more In the new pension system in the Netherlands- according to the July 2020 agreement between social partners and the government - the “risk-free” interest rate to calculate the degree of coverage of paying future pension benefits, has been replaced by various alternatives of a so-called projected rate of return. There is a relationship with the “achievable” investment return which we have advocated as replacing the “risk-free” interest rate in a previous article. The result of now defining several alternative projection rates is that the pension funds must apply various calculation rules that determine pension contributions, the distribution of investment returns and of pension benefits. It is recommended that these calculation rules be established in a uniform manner and not to be left to the discretionary powers of the funds, politicians or monetary authorities, as the calculation rules determine the distribution of assets and investment income between the participants. Moreover, differentiation of investments rules according to risks on returns for the young and the elderly is not desirable
Me Judice, Jan 8, 2021
This article discusses the very critical findings of the Parliamentary Interrogation Committee on... more This article discusses the very critical findings of the Parliamentary Interrogation Committee on Childcare Allowances ("Ongekend Onrecht", Van Dam Committee). Due to an exclusive focus on fraud prevention many innocent and low income receivers of childcare allowances were forced to “pay back” large amounts of money, which caused enormous personal tragedies. Meanwhile the Rutte III cabinet resigned because of this government failure. A major reason for this failure is that legislation on the allowances did not take the huge execution costs into account. Therefore, in order to avoid such damaging failure in future, formal reporting on all expected execution costs of future policy proposals with respect to taxes and social benefits should be institutionalized. These include the costs for both the government and for tax payers and receivers of benefits (Cost Effect Reporting). In addition, independent advice from experts must be institutionalized within the executing organizations and there must be permanent feedback from the executive to the legislative and judiciary powers
TPE Digitaal, Dec 1, 2020
This article discusses the usefulness of setting concrete future policy goals by taking the 2000 ... more This article discusses the usefulness of setting concrete future policy goals by taking the 2000 WRR (Scientific Council for Government Policy) report on labor market dynamics and further growth in labour participation as an example. With a so-called growth scenario over the period 2000-2020, that study looked at the obstacles that could arise if this further growth of the participation rate would materialize, and what policy measures could help to remove these obstacles. An important policy goal appeared to be fulfilled in 2020, namely to keep women and older men at work. The participation of these groups is currently even higher than anticipated in the growth scenario. Looking back at this study shows that it is useful to quantify possible future developments in the labour market in a scenario. The way of setting up the scenario analysis in the WRR report at the time can be regarded as a way in between a goal setting, normative approach and a positive approach. However, at the moment very different policy tasks require attention than in 2000
There is skepticism among young people about the “Boomers”, the generation born just after WWII t... more There is skepticism among young people about the “Boomers”, the generation born just after WWII that started out as idealistic but, it is believed, has taken good care of itself. This article uses an analysis of capital transfers between young and old in the past seventy years to determine whether this skepticism is justified. It is shown that the generations of the Boomers and their parents have provided a lot of material capital that benefits young people. But on the other hand, environmental capital has been significantly consumed. Restoration of this environmental damage should be central in the coming decades. Growth in environment enhancing productivity is to become more important than growth in labour productivity
The Libra, as advocated by the Libra consortium, is an innovative means of payment and will contr... more The Libra, as advocated by the Libra consortium, is an innovative means of payment and will contribute to economic welfare by reducing transaction costs for (international) payments. It does, however, mean that the Libra, such as bank notes and cashless balances, must be counted as part of the money supply. From the perspective of public interest, therefore, regulation should be proactively considered. In addition, recent innovations such as in social media can serve as an example for policy makers on how regulation should be designed.
In these confusing times of social distance, it offers comfort and relief to dream about a wonder... more In these confusing times of social distance, it offers comfort and relief to dream about a wonderful new world. A world in which it is pleasant to live after the risk of infection with the corona virus has passed. A world with much more community spirit and equality, away from the world dominated by material desires and fierce competition. This article summarizes some of such dreams based on recently published scenario studies, with the focus on a scenario analysis that the author conducted with Patrick van der Duin. A scenario from that study, relevant to the post-corona world is what could be called the "small is beautiful" scenario. In this scenario, service that focuses on individual wishes is central, where possession of things is less important than having access to the use of these things. For example, loan and lease contracts will be offered in many forms. No longer are companies with extensive research departments the most innovative. The most important success factor is knowledge and a feeling for current and future customer wishes and being able to respond quickly and effectively via innovations. Yet, the welfare benefits that international specialization has brought to the world economy should not be neglected in such a vision of the future. Globalization has not only negative but also positive sides. Investments in and knowledge of international production chains cannot simply be reversed. It does mean that alternatives are needed for the lavish business and tourist travel, which is in fact a major cause of the coronavirus pandemic
This contribution is about how to reorganize our country, the economy and the world after the thr... more This contribution is about how to reorganize our country, the economy and the world after the threat of the corona virus has passed. Are we going back to the old world order and pre-pandemic economy, or are we taking advantage of this stressful episode to opt for a future with a less competitive and more cooperative society, and with a future-proof economic ordering? Our answer is an optimistic scenario, in which the US or China are no longer the leaders in the global economy, but where leadership is shifting to Europe. This in the knowledge that European cooperation is to be based on an intelligent mixture of federalist and nationalist institutions. This scenario for a new future after the corona crisis can be characterized as the Rhenish model in combination with the Hanseatic mentality
In the current pension contract in the Netherlands with equal contribution rates for all age grou... more In the current pension contract in the Netherlands with equal contribution rates for all age groups, transfer of capital takes place within generations, namely from early retirers to stayers, and from those with a flat income profile to those with a steep income profile. With this contract with capital funded pensions, there are in principle no transfers from young to old. This article argues that it is a fable that for that reason young people benefit from the abolition of the present contribution system.
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Papers by Frank Den Butter