This document presents a quasi-experimental impact evaluation of Renta Dignidad, a universal non-... more This document presents a quasi-experimental impact evaluation of Renta Dignidad, a universal non-contributory pension to old-age population in Bolivia, on intended and unintended outcomes including: household’s welfare, investments and savings, and labor market outcomes of direct and indirect beneficiaries. To identify the causal effects of the program we take advantage of an exogenous policy change that reduces the eligibility criteria from 65 to 60 years in December of 2007. Our identifaction strategy relies on both, the simple Difference-in-Difference and the more complex Changes-in-Changes approach to calculate not only average, but also quantile treatment effects. We find that non-contributory household transfers have complex intended and unintended effects on different individual and household outcomes for different types of individuals and households. In the case of women, we find that non-contributory pensions have, on average, increased their households’ non-labor income, which has decreased their labor supply and labor earnings, which in turn has decreased households’ labor income. In the case of men, the transfer has increased their households’ non-labor income and increased their households’ per-capita income, but the latter is not significant.
To establish poverty line(s) is the most critical and hardest step in the measurement of po- vert... more To establish poverty line(s) is the most critical and hardest step in the measurement of po- verty because it defines who is and is not poor. Bolivia’s official estimates are based on an outdated household survey which was constrained to the urban area only. In this paper we outline the assumptions made to construct basic food baskets for 5 domains and present re- sults from the 2003-2004 expenditure-income household survey based on the food energy intake methodology. Then we update the results for the 1999-2012 period using the prices from the Consumer Price Index survey and show the significant differences between the esti- mations for the urban and rural area as well as the differences with the international poverty line that is the reference for international poverty comparisons.
Este documento expone las diferencias entre los grupos de ingreso en las canastas de consumo e in... more Este documento expone las diferencias entre los grupos de ingreso en las canastas de consumo e inflación y analiza el impacto distributivo de los episodios recientes de inflación en Bolivia. Primero se documenta la significativa heterogeneidad en las canastas de consumo según grupos de ingreso. Luego, se documenta el nivel, pegajosidad y volatilidad de cada canasta. Finalmente se analizan los efectos de la heterogeneidad de la inflación en los cambios observados en la distribución de ingresos.
El Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) es uno de los indicadores más importantes para el aná... more El Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) es uno de los indicadores más importantes para el análisis del desempeño de una economía. En 2007, el Instituto Nacional de Estadística de Bolivia (INE) modificó el año base para el cálculo del IPC, aspecto que desató críticas a la metodología de cálculo y manifestó posibles sesgos que introdujo en la medición del índice. El presente documento (re)construye los índices de precios general y para los subconjuntos de la población siguiendo los lineamientos del «Manual de IPC» de la OIT (2004) y la información pública disponible. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que: (i) el índice de precios estimado se aproxima razonablemente al IPC publicado por el ente oficial, (ii) las variaciones de precios afectan de manera desigual a los hogares con estructuras de consumo diferentes, (iii) los hogares de menores ingresos habrían sido los más afectados por una mayor pérdida de poder adquisitivo solamente en 2008 y 2010.
In this document we measure poverty along several dimensions according to the frame- work develop... more In this document we measure poverty along several dimensions according to the frame- work developed in the regional project “Building Capacities for Quality Research in Low Income Countries”. We also present evidence on the socio-economical changes that took pla- ce during the 2005-2012 period and its relationship with poverty and different non-monetary dimensions. The results show that the improvements achieved during the pre-crisis (2008) period were upset afterwards, specially in urban areas. As a result the Honduran situation in 2012, in multidimensional poverty terms, is pretty much the same as in 2005.
This paper documents and explains the evolution of monetary poverty in Bolivia during the period ... more This paper documents and explains the evolution of monetary poverty in Bolivia during the period 1999-2011. First, we find a significant reduction in both, extreme and moderate, poverty. During the period under analysis, extreme poverty headcount, gap and severity have reduced in 55%, 67% and 73%; while moderate poverty headcount, gap and severity have reduced in 32%, 50% and 60%, res- pectively. The speed of poverty reduction was greater in extreme poverty than in moderate poverty, with significant differences by poverty measures, areas, and time periods. On the one hand, the ave- rage reduction rate in extreme poverty headcount in urbal areas was 10.4 % per year in the 2005-2011 period and 3.5 % per year in the 1999-2005 period; while in rural areas was 7.2 % per year in the 2005- 2011 period and 3.9 % per year in the 1999-2005 period. On the other hand, the average reduction rate in moderate poverty headcount in urbal areas was 3.7 % per year in the 2005-2011 period and 1.9 % per year in the 1999-2005 period; while in rural areas was 4.4 % per year in the 2005-2011 period and 2.4 % per year in the 1999-2005 period. Second, we find that growth of and redistribution in per-capita hou- sehold income have played different roles in poverty reductions by are and time period. On the one hand, poverty changes in urban areas during the 1999-2005 period are mainly explained by the growth in per-capita income - which was enough to compensate for the increase on income inequality; while poverty changes during the 2005-2011 period was the result of both, growth in and redistribution of per-capita income. On the other hand, poverty reductions in rural areas are mainly explained by the sustained growth of per-capita household income, more intense during the last than during the first period.
This document presents a quasi-experimental impact evaluation of Renta Dignidad, a universal non-... more This document presents a quasi-experimental impact evaluation of Renta Dignidad, a universal non-contributory pension to old-age population in Bolivia, on intended and unintended outcomes including: household’s welfare, investments and savings, and labor market outcomes of direct and indirect beneficiaries. To identify the causal effects of the program we take advantage of an exogenous policy change that reduces the eligibility criteria from 65 to 60 years in December of 2007. Our identifaction strategy relies on both, the simple Difference-in-Difference and the more complex Changes-in-Changes approach to calculate not only average, but also quantile treatment effects. We find that non-contributory household transfers have complex intended and unintended effects on different individual and household outcomes for different types of individuals and households. In the case of women, we find that non-contributory pensions have, on average, increased their households’ non-labor income, which has decreased their labor supply and labor earnings, which in turn has decreased households’ labor income. In the case of men, the transfer has increased their households’ non-labor income and increased their households’ per-capita income, but the latter is not significant.
To establish poverty line(s) is the most critical and hardest step in the measurement of po- vert... more To establish poverty line(s) is the most critical and hardest step in the measurement of po- verty because it defines who is and is not poor. Bolivia’s official estimates are based on an outdated household survey which was constrained to the urban area only. In this paper we outline the assumptions made to construct basic food baskets for 5 domains and present re- sults from the 2003-2004 expenditure-income household survey based on the food energy intake methodology. Then we update the results for the 1999-2012 period using the prices from the Consumer Price Index survey and show the significant differences between the esti- mations for the urban and rural area as well as the differences with the international poverty line that is the reference for international poverty comparisons.
Este documento expone las diferencias entre los grupos de ingreso en las canastas de consumo e in... more Este documento expone las diferencias entre los grupos de ingreso en las canastas de consumo e inflación y analiza el impacto distributivo de los episodios recientes de inflación en Bolivia. Primero se documenta la significativa heterogeneidad en las canastas de consumo según grupos de ingreso. Luego, se documenta el nivel, pegajosidad y volatilidad de cada canasta. Finalmente se analizan los efectos de la heterogeneidad de la inflación en los cambios observados en la distribución de ingresos.
El Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) es uno de los indicadores más importantes para el aná... more El Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) es uno de los indicadores más importantes para el análisis del desempeño de una economía. En 2007, el Instituto Nacional de Estadística de Bolivia (INE) modificó el año base para el cálculo del IPC, aspecto que desató críticas a la metodología de cálculo y manifestó posibles sesgos que introdujo en la medición del índice. El presente documento (re)construye los índices de precios general y para los subconjuntos de la población siguiendo los lineamientos del «Manual de IPC» de la OIT (2004) y la información pública disponible. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que: (i) el índice de precios estimado se aproxima razonablemente al IPC publicado por el ente oficial, (ii) las variaciones de precios afectan de manera desigual a los hogares con estructuras de consumo diferentes, (iii) los hogares de menores ingresos habrían sido los más afectados por una mayor pérdida de poder adquisitivo solamente en 2008 y 2010.
In this document we measure poverty along several dimensions according to the frame- work develop... more In this document we measure poverty along several dimensions according to the frame- work developed in the regional project “Building Capacities for Quality Research in Low Income Countries”. We also present evidence on the socio-economical changes that took pla- ce during the 2005-2012 period and its relationship with poverty and different non-monetary dimensions. The results show that the improvements achieved during the pre-crisis (2008) period were upset afterwards, specially in urban areas. As a result the Honduran situation in 2012, in multidimensional poverty terms, is pretty much the same as in 2005.
This paper documents and explains the evolution of monetary poverty in Bolivia during the period ... more This paper documents and explains the evolution of monetary poverty in Bolivia during the period 1999-2011. First, we find a significant reduction in both, extreme and moderate, poverty. During the period under analysis, extreme poverty headcount, gap and severity have reduced in 55%, 67% and 73%; while moderate poverty headcount, gap and severity have reduced in 32%, 50% and 60%, res- pectively. The speed of poverty reduction was greater in extreme poverty than in moderate poverty, with significant differences by poverty measures, areas, and time periods. On the one hand, the ave- rage reduction rate in extreme poverty headcount in urbal areas was 10.4 % per year in the 2005-2011 period and 3.5 % per year in the 1999-2005 period; while in rural areas was 7.2 % per year in the 2005- 2011 period and 3.9 % per year in the 1999-2005 period. On the other hand, the average reduction rate in moderate poverty headcount in urbal areas was 3.7 % per year in the 2005-2011 period and 1.9 % per year in the 1999-2005 period; while in rural areas was 4.4 % per year in the 2005-2011 period and 2.4 % per year in the 1999-2005 period. Second, we find that growth of and redistribution in per-capita hou- sehold income have played different roles in poverty reductions by are and time period. On the one hand, poverty changes in urban areas during the 1999-2005 period are mainly explained by the growth in per-capita income - which was enough to compensate for the increase on income inequality; while poverty changes during the 2005-2011 period was the result of both, growth in and redistribution of per-capita income. On the other hand, poverty reductions in rural areas are mainly explained by the sustained growth of per-capita household income, more intense during the last than during the first period.
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Papers by Gary Mena L.