By February 2021, the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India had been relatively mild i... more By February 2021, the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India had been relatively mild in terms of total reported cases and deaths. Surprisingly, the second wave in early April becomes devastating and attracts worldwide attention. On April 30, 2021, India became the first country reporting over 400,000 daily new cases. Multiple factors drove the rapid growth of the epidemic in India and caused a large number of deaths within a very short period. These factors include a new variant with increased transmissibility, a lack of preparations exists national wide, and health and safety precautions poorly implemented or enforced during festivals, sporting events, and state/local elections. Moreover, India's cases and deaths are vastly underreported due to poor infrastructure, and low testing rates. In this paper, we use the COVID-19 mortality data in India and a mathematical model to calculate the effective reproduction number and to model the wave pattern in India. We propose ...
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 2020
With the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, aggressive countermeasures have been taken, including the... more With the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, aggressive countermeasures have been taken, including the implementation of the unprecedented lockdown of the city, which will necessarily cause huge economic losses for the city of Wuhan. In this paper, we attempt to uncover the interactions between epidemic prevention and control measures and economic-social development by estimating the health loss and meso-economic loss from a human-oriented perspective. We implemented a compartmental model for the transmission dynamics and health burden assessment to evaluate the health losses, then estimated the direct and indirect economic losses of industries using the Input-Output model. Based on these estimates, the first monthly health losses and meso-economic losses caused by the lockdown was assessed. The overall policy effect of the lockdown policy in Wuhan was also investigated. The health loss and meso-economic losses are used to evaluate the health burden and loss of residents’ mental health, ...
Background: Since the first level response to public health emergencies (FLRPHE) was launched on ... more Background: Since the first level response to public health emergencies (FLRPHE) was launched on January 25, 2020 in Heilongjiang province, China, the outbreak of COVID-19 seems to be under control. However, an outbreak of COVID-19 caused by imported case developed in Harbin during April 2020. Here, we provide an estimate of the COVID-19 outbreak size in Harbin in April based on the number of found infected cases, assess the proportion of found and unfound infected cases in infected cases and evaluate the effective reproduction number which shows the transmission risk of COVID-19. Methods: We used data from April 9 to April 30, 2020, on the number of found infected cases from the outbreak in Harbin to infer the number of infections in Harbin in the outbreak of COVID-19 and give the proportion of found and unfound infected cases in infected cases. Data on found infected cases were obtained from the the reports of Health Commission of Heilongjiang Province. A Susceptible-Unfound infec...
A computer virus model with infection delay and recovery delay is considered. The sufficient cond... more A computer virus model with infection delay and recovery delay is considered. The sufficient conditions for the global stability of the virus infection equilibrium are established. We show that the time delay can destabilize the virus infection equilibrium and give rise to Hopf bifurcations and stable periodic orbits. By the normal form and center manifold theory, the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and stability of the bifurcating periodic orbits are determined. Numerical simulations are provided to support our theoretical conclusions.
By February 2021, the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India had been relatively mild i... more By February 2021, the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India had been relatively mild in terms of total reported cases and deaths. Surprisingly, the second wave in early April becomes devastating and attracts worldwide attention. On April 30, 2021, India became the first country reporting over 400,000 daily new cases. Multiple factors drove the rapid growth of the epidemic in India and caused a large number of deaths within a very short period. These factors include a new variant with increased transmissibility, a lack of preparations exists national wide, and health and safety precautions poorly implemented or enforced during festivals, sporting events, and state/local elections. Moreover, India's cases and deaths are vastly underreported due to poor infrastructure, and low testing rates. In this paper, we use the COVID-19 mortality data in India and a mathematical model to calculate the effective reproduction number and to model the wave pattern in India. We propose ...
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 2020
With the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, aggressive countermeasures have been taken, including the... more With the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, aggressive countermeasures have been taken, including the implementation of the unprecedented lockdown of the city, which will necessarily cause huge economic losses for the city of Wuhan. In this paper, we attempt to uncover the interactions between epidemic prevention and control measures and economic-social development by estimating the health loss and meso-economic loss from a human-oriented perspective. We implemented a compartmental model for the transmission dynamics and health burden assessment to evaluate the health losses, then estimated the direct and indirect economic losses of industries using the Input-Output model. Based on these estimates, the first monthly health losses and meso-economic losses caused by the lockdown was assessed. The overall policy effect of the lockdown policy in Wuhan was also investigated. The health loss and meso-economic losses are used to evaluate the health burden and loss of residents’ mental health, ...
Background: Since the first level response to public health emergencies (FLRPHE) was launched on ... more Background: Since the first level response to public health emergencies (FLRPHE) was launched on January 25, 2020 in Heilongjiang province, China, the outbreak of COVID-19 seems to be under control. However, an outbreak of COVID-19 caused by imported case developed in Harbin during April 2020. Here, we provide an estimate of the COVID-19 outbreak size in Harbin in April based on the number of found infected cases, assess the proportion of found and unfound infected cases in infected cases and evaluate the effective reproduction number which shows the transmission risk of COVID-19. Methods: We used data from April 9 to April 30, 2020, on the number of found infected cases from the outbreak in Harbin to infer the number of infections in Harbin in the outbreak of COVID-19 and give the proportion of found and unfound infected cases in infected cases. Data on found infected cases were obtained from the the reports of Health Commission of Heilongjiang Province. A Susceptible-Unfound infec...
A computer virus model with infection delay and recovery delay is considered. The sufficient cond... more A computer virus model with infection delay and recovery delay is considered. The sufficient conditions for the global stability of the virus infection equilibrium are established. We show that the time delay can destabilize the virus infection equilibrium and give rise to Hopf bifurcations and stable periodic orbits. By the normal form and center manifold theory, the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and stability of the bifurcating periodic orbits are determined. Numerical simulations are provided to support our theoretical conclusions.
Uploads
Papers by Haitao Song