Papers by Jeffrey Prestemon
Eighty percent of wildfires are human caused, so it is important for decision makers and land man... more Eighty percent of wildfires are human caused, so it is important for decision makers and land managers to consider the role of prevention activities that minimize the costs and losses of human-caused wildfires. There have been significant efforts aimed at reducing the impact wildfires have on people and their property, but the efficiency of these efforts often requires a better understanding of the human behavior contributing to the ignition process. This paper discusses three themes related to understanding and reducing the impact of human-caused wildfires: 1) the characteristics of wildfire data; 2) the effects of fire prevention activities; and 3) utilizing spatio-temporal patterns in human-caused fire ignitions to increase the effectiveness of prevention efforts. Research on these issues suggest that social collaboration, crime prevention, and education programs among other efforts may be effective tools in reducing the loss of life and property due to human-caused wildfire igni...
Wildland arson creates damages to structures and timber and affects the health and safety of peop... more Wildland arson creates damages to structures and timber and affects the health and safety of people living in rural and wildland urban interface areas. We develop a model that incorporates temporal autocorrelations and spatial correlations in wildland arson ignitions in Florida. A Poisson autoregressive model of order p, or PAR(p) model, is estimated for six high arson Census tracts in
Asian gypsy and nun moth introductions into the United States, possibly arriving on imported Sibe... more Asian gypsy and nun moth introductions into the United States, possibly arriving on imported Siberian coniferous logs, threaten domestic forests and product markets and could have global market consequences. We simulate, using the Global Forest Products Model (a spatial equilibrium model of the world forest sector), the consequences under current policies of a wide-spread, successful pest invasion, and of plausible
We estimate a wildfire risk model with a new measure of wildfire output, intensity-weighted risk ... more We estimate a wildfire risk model with a new measure of wildfire output, intensity-weighted risk and use it in Monte Carlo simulations to estimate welfare changes from alternative prescribed burning policies. Using Volusia County, Florida as a case study, an annual prescribed burning rate of 13% of all forest lands maximizes net welfare; ignoring the effects on wildfire intensity may underestimate optimal rates of prescribed burning. Our estimated supply function for prescribed fire services is inelastic, suggesting that increasing contract prescribed fire services on public lands may produce rapidly escalating costs for private landowners and unintended distributional and "leakage" effects.
Perfect competition has long been the standard by which economists have judged the market's a... more Perfect competition has long been the standard by which economists have judged the market's ability to achieve an efficient social outcome. The competitive process, unfettered by the imperfections discussed below, forges an outcome in which goods and services are produced at their lowest possible cost, and market equilibrium is achieved at the point at which the cost of the last
A density-dependent matrix growth model of uneven-agedloblolly pine stands was developed with dat... more A density-dependent matrix growth model of uneven-agedloblolly pine stands was developed with data from 991 permanentplots in the southern United States. The model predicts thenumber of pine, soft hardwood, and hard hardwood trees in13 diameter classes, based on equations for ingrowth, upgrowth,and mortality. Projections of 6 to 10 years agreed with thegrowth of stands between the last two inventories. In
Timber market analysis of the South's predominantly private timberland finds that the 13 sout... more Timber market analysis of the South's predominantly private timberland finds that the 13 southern states produce nearly 60 percent of the nation's timber, an increase from the midmid- 1900s. Projections with the Subregional Timber Supply model show that, despite a 67 percent increase in the area of pine plantations, the South will experience a 2 percent decline in private timberland
Broadscale statistical evaluations of wildfire incidence can answer policy-relevant questions abo... more Broadscale statistical evaluations of wildfire incidence can answer policy-relevant questions about the effectiveness of microlevel vegetation management and can identify subjects needing further study. A dynamic time series cross-sectional model was used to evaluate the statistical links between forest wildfire and vegetation management, human land use, and climatic factors in Florida counties. Four forest wildfire risk functions were estimated: one
The wood-pellet trade between the U.S. (United States) and the EU (European Union) has increased ... more The wood-pellet trade between the U.S. (United States) and the EU (European Union) has increased substantially recently. This research analyzes the effects of EU biomass imports from the Southeast U.S. on Southeast U.S. timber prices, inventories and production and on EU imports of feedstock. The SRTS (sub-regional timber supply model) was used to simulate market responses to changes in woody biomass consumption in the U.S. and the EU between 2008 and 2038. Results indicate that the price of imported wood pellets in the EU is sensitive to future U.S. renewable energy policies, the developments of which are so far uncertain. The analysis indicates that with bioenergy demands, prices increase for U.S. softwood roundwood from 25% to 125% by 2038 depending largely on U.S. domestic policy. Demand increases led to supply responses and increased carbon storage in Southeastern U.S. over time.
Applied Geography, 2015
Development of efficient forest wildfire policies requires an understanding of the underlying rea... more Development of efficient forest wildfire policies requires an understanding of the underlying reasons behind forest fire occurrences. Globally, there is a close relationship between forest wildfires and human activities; most wildfires are human events due to negligence (e.g., agricultural burning escapes) and deliberate actions (e.g., vandalism, pyromania, revenge, land use change attempts). We model the risk of wildfire as a function of the spatial pattern of urban development and the abandonment/intensity of agricultural and forestry activities, while controlling for biophysical and climatic factors. We use a count data approach to model deliberately set fires in Galicia, N.W. Spain, where wildfire is a significant threat to forest ecosystems, with nearly 100,000 wildfires recorded during a thirteen-year period (1999e2011). The spatial units of analysis are more than 3600 parishes. Data for the human influences are derived from fine-resolution maps of wildlandeurban interface (WUI), housing spatial arrangements, road density, forest ownership, and vegetation type. We found wildfire risk to be higher where there are human populations and development/urbanisation pressure, as well as in unattended forest areas due to both rural exodus and a fragmented forest ownership structure that complicates the profitability of forestry practices. To better help direct management efforts, parameter estimates from our model were used to predict wildfire counts under alternative scenarios that account for variation across space on future landuse conditions. Policies that incentivize cooperative forest management and that constrain urban development in wildlands at hotspot fire locations are shown to reduce wildfire risk. Our results highlight the need for spatially targeted fire management strategies.
A Guide for Natural Resource Managers in Southern Forest Ecosystems, 2013
We used the Economics of Biomass Removals model to evaluate the required treatment acreages, volu... more We used the Economics of Biomass Removals model to evaluate the required treatment acreages, volumes removed, treatment costs and product revenues from national forest and other ownerships. We used three distinct treatment prescriptions to achieve two hazard reduction goals for treatable timberlands in the Western United States. The two hazard reduction goals were to maintain current hazard levels over 10 years, and to reduce hazard levels by 20 percent over 10 years. We also simulated one treatment prescription on national forest timberland only in order to evaluate the effect of requiring a minimum level of treatment in each State. These simulations show that costs and revenues differ by intensity of the hazard reduction goal and by treatment prescription. They show that uneven-aged treatment prescriptions tend to be more expensive than thin-from-below prescriptions for accomplishing hazard reduction goals. Uneven-aged prescriptions, however, yield greater timber product volumes and values for landowners, offsetting the higher costs. On the other hand, in situations without wood product markets, thin-from-below prescriptions could be a better option because of the lower net costs.
Societal safeguards, established by those who have shared perceptions of the importance of safety... more Societal safeguards, established by those who have shared perceptions of the importance of safety and taking preventative measures, reduce the incidence of accidents that harm people and damage property. These safeguards prevent or discourage community members from partaking in careless behaviors that often lead to accidents. Wildland urban interface communities that recognize the importance of safety and taking preventive measures are likely to have a lower rate of accidental wildfire. Research has established a strong link between a positive safety culture and a reduction in accidents. This paper tests whether the lack of societal safeguards results in higher rates of accidental wildfires by modeling unintentional human caused wildfires as a function of constructed 'Broken Window' indices. Abandoned buildings and unkempt infrastructure identify areas with social disorder, where individuals are more likely to partake in careless behaviors that result in frequent accidents. ...
Replaced with revised version of paper 06/28/11.
We assess exchange rate pass–through (ERPT) for U.S. and Canadian prices for oriented strand boar... more We assess exchange rate pass–through (ERPT) for U.S. and Canadian prices for oriented strand board (OSB), a wood panel product used extensively in U.S. residential construction. Because of its prominence in construction and international trade, OSB markets are likely sensitive to general economic conditions. In keeping with recent research (e.g., Al-Abri and Goodwin, 2009; Larue et al., 2010), we examine regime–specific ERPT effects; we use a smooth transition vector error correction model. We also build on work by Nogueira, Jr. and Leon-Ledesma (2011) and Chew et al. (2011) in considering ERPT asymmetries associated with a measure of general macroeconomic activity. Our results indicate that during expansionary periods ERPT is modest, at least initially, but during the recent financial crises ERPT effects were quite large.
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Papers by Jeffrey Prestemon