Our work aimed to develop a tool to support the process of making strategic decisions about the C... more Our work aimed to develop a tool to support the process of making strategic decisions about the COVID-19 pandemic by optimizing suppression intervention schedules. We focus mainly on hard lockdowns that contain the spread of the virus and, consequently, minimize the number of infections and keep the incidence of COVID-19 at low levels. Properly implemented restrictions can reduce the likelihood of infection and thus push the pandemic back. On the contrary, lifting restrictions results in a sharp increase in the likelihood of infection and the development of a pandemic. The model proposed in this paper indicates the optimal moments to implement full lockdown, accounting for both the costs of lockdown and the costs of not applying lockdown.
Our work aimed to develop a tool to support the process of making strategic decisions about the C... more Our work aimed to develop a tool to support the process of making strategic decisions about the COVID-19 pandemic by optimizing suppression intervention schedules. We focus mainly on hard lockdowns that contain the spread of the virus and, consequently, minimize the number of infections and keep the incidence of COVID-19 at low levels. Properly implemented restrictions can reduce the likelihood of infection and thus push the pandemic back. On the contrary, lifting restrictions results in a sharp increase in the likelihood of infection and the development of a pandemic. The model proposed in this paper indicates the optimal moments to implement full lockdown, accounting for both the costs of lockdown and the costs of not applying lockdown.
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Papers by Roger Książek