Basing his study largely on Romanian documents, the author describes the early career of the cont... more Basing his study largely on Romanian documents, the author describes the early career of the controversial Marshal Ion Antonescu, who proposed reforms for what he and other military officers of the Romanian Right perceived as a corrupt and inefficient political establishment.
When Western policymakers confront the problem of resolving – or, at a minimum, managing – ethnic... more When Western policymakers confront the problem of resolving – or, at a minimum, managing – ethnic tensions in central Europe and the Balkans, their discussions typically revolve around principles of political and territorial organization. Federalism, confederalism, some form of autonomy, goes the thinking, would foster greater political decentralization in the region – itself considered to be an unmitigated good – that would go a long way toward easing tensions. However, there are a few problems with this approach, not the least of which is the doubtful nature of its two underlying presumptions: that adopting new principles of organization will lead to behavior conducive to improved relations between groups in the short term and that these organizational principles as practiced in the West represent a conscious attempt to devolve power to the local level. … Larry L. Watts World Policy Journal Vol. 12, No. 1 (Spring, 1995), pp. 89-96
This chapter examines the origins and impact of cognitive bias, organizational pathologies such a... more This chapter examines the origins and impact of cognitive bias, organizational pathologies such as dysfunctional secrecy and compartmentalization, and intentional disinformation on US assessments of Romanian policy and behavior during the Cold War. This excerpt analyzes US dismissals of independent behavior during the mid-1950s, and the failure to share dramatic elements of Romanian policy among key stakeholders after the Cuban Missile Crisis.
The restructuring of Romania’s armed forces has been driven by political expediency rather than m... more The restructuring of Romania’s armed forces has been driven by political expediency rather than military considerations. The lliescu government must reverse this trend if it hopes for a NATO invitation.
The Romanian military is popularly associated with every significant advance in state-building an... more The Romanian military is popularly associated with every significant advance in state-building and national consolidation since the formation of the Romanian people. Its status as an institution under full national control since the 1960s, coupled with the hostility shown it by Romania’s communist leadership, maintained the popular prestige of the military before 1989. This popularity was reinforced when the army joined with the population in the December 1989 revolution. The Romanian Armed Forces (RAF) thus emerged from the communist period as a popular and fully field-capable army, and its relationship with society free of the civil-military antagonism common among other former Warsaw Pact countries.
Keeping the military out of politics and keeping civilian authorities from drawing the military i... more Keeping the military out of politics and keeping civilian authorities from drawing the military into politics are two of the most fundamental concerns of civil-military relations theory and democratic consolidation in transition states (Schmitter, 1996:xii). Primarily because of the military's coercive force potential and presumably less-democratic predilections, theory and the practical advising derived from it have concentrated overwhelmingly on the problem of keeping the military out of politics by ensuring adequate civilian control over the military (Feaver, 1999:211-241). But this is only half of the story. In democratizing states, because the stakes are so high and rules and democratic customs are still evolving, the temptations are strong for civilians to misuse the military and/or draw it into partisan political struggles. Real problems for democratization ensue when the second of the two fundamental concerns is not heeded
In the post-communist transitions in central and eastern Europe, competing priorities also distra... more In the post-communist transitions in central and eastern Europe, competing priorities also distracted attention from intelligence reform as political, economic, and other security institutions simultaneously underwent changes. Western biases shaping the packaging of reform assistance added to the relative neglect of intelligence. The West’s early focus on market economy formation instead of the establishment of rule of law, as well as its pronounced unwillingness to assist what were still considered the “instruments of repression,” kept intelligence near the bottom of the reformist agenda during the first few years of transition.
Larry L. Watts, a former Rand consultant and adviser on military reform to the Romanian Defense M... more Larry L. Watts, a former Rand consultant and adviser on military reform to the Romanian Defense Ministry, advises the Romanian government on intelligence matters. Intelligence reform is a critical element of democratization, but it is frequently relegated to the back burner in the early days of post-authoritarian regime transitions. This is due, in part, to a reflexive aversion to what was commonly the most brutal legacy of the former regimes. Transition populations tend to favor the destruction of intelligence apparatuses, not their reform.
... George Cristian Maior and Mihaela Matei, 'Bridging the Gap in Civilmilitary Relations i... more ... George Cristian Maior and Mihaela Matei, 'Bridging the Gap in Civilmilitary Relations in Southeastern Europe: Romania's Defence-Planning Case', Mediterranean ... to a four-star general on his retirement at the beginning of 2001, while his successor, Mircea Chelaru, rose from ...
This study examines Romania’s lesser-known early mediation during the Vietnam War and its contrib... more This study examines Romania’s lesser-known early mediation during the Vietnam War and its contribution to the “Trinh signal” of January 1967, commonly considered the first real breakthrough in movement towards peace talks. The study explains how and why the Romanian approach differed from that of other Warsaw Pact intermediaries, and why those differences resonated with the North Vietnamese leadership. The study indicates that Romania’s mediation during 1965-1966 was far more significant, consistent and influential than previously thought, setting the stage for its more spectacular role as Washington’s principle channel to Hanoi in the autumn of 1967 and contributing to the overwhelmingly positive impression of its efforts by the Johnson Administration.
When Western policymakers confront the problem of resolving – or, at a minimum, managing – ethnic... more When Western policymakers confront the problem of resolving – or, at a minimum, managing – ethnic tensions in central Europe and the Balkans, their discussions typically revolve around principles of political and territorial organization. Federalism, confederalism, some form of autonomy, goes the thinking, would foster greater political decentralization in the region – itself considered to be an unmitigated good – that would go a long way toward easing tensions. However, there are a few problems with this approach, not the least of which is the doubtful nature of its two underlying presumptions: that adopting new principles of organization will lead to behavior conducive to improved relations between groups in the short term and that these organizational principles as practiced in the West represent a conscious attempt to devolve power to the local level. … Larry L. Watts World Policy Journal Vol. 12, No. 1 (Spring, 1995), pp. 89-96
The restructuring of Romania’s armed forces has been driven by political expediency rather than m... more The restructuring of Romania’s armed forces has been driven by political expediency rather than military considerations. The lliescu government must reverse this trend if it hopes for a NATO invitation.
Problems of Post-Communism Volume 48, Issue 4, 2001
Basing his study largely on Romanian documents, the author describes the early career of the cont... more Basing his study largely on Romanian documents, the author describes the early career of the controversial Marshal Ion Antonescu, who proposed reforms for what he and other military officers of the Romanian Right perceived as a corrupt and inefficient political establishment.
When Western policymakers confront the problem of resolving – or, at a minimum, managing – ethnic... more When Western policymakers confront the problem of resolving – or, at a minimum, managing – ethnic tensions in central Europe and the Balkans, their discussions typically revolve around principles of political and territorial organization. Federalism, confederalism, some form of autonomy, goes the thinking, would foster greater political decentralization in the region – itself considered to be an unmitigated good – that would go a long way toward easing tensions. However, there are a few problems with this approach, not the least of which is the doubtful nature of its two underlying presumptions: that adopting new principles of organization will lead to behavior conducive to improved relations between groups in the short term and that these organizational principles as practiced in the West represent a conscious attempt to devolve power to the local level. … Larry L. Watts World Policy Journal Vol. 12, No. 1 (Spring, 1995), pp. 89-96
This chapter examines the origins and impact of cognitive bias, organizational pathologies such a... more This chapter examines the origins and impact of cognitive bias, organizational pathologies such as dysfunctional secrecy and compartmentalization, and intentional disinformation on US assessments of Romanian policy and behavior during the Cold War. This excerpt analyzes US dismissals of independent behavior during the mid-1950s, and the failure to share dramatic elements of Romanian policy among key stakeholders after the Cuban Missile Crisis.
The restructuring of Romania’s armed forces has been driven by political expediency rather than m... more The restructuring of Romania’s armed forces has been driven by political expediency rather than military considerations. The lliescu government must reverse this trend if it hopes for a NATO invitation.
The Romanian military is popularly associated with every significant advance in state-building an... more The Romanian military is popularly associated with every significant advance in state-building and national consolidation since the formation of the Romanian people. Its status as an institution under full national control since the 1960s, coupled with the hostility shown it by Romania’s communist leadership, maintained the popular prestige of the military before 1989. This popularity was reinforced when the army joined with the population in the December 1989 revolution. The Romanian Armed Forces (RAF) thus emerged from the communist period as a popular and fully field-capable army, and its relationship with society free of the civil-military antagonism common among other former Warsaw Pact countries.
Keeping the military out of politics and keeping civilian authorities from drawing the military i... more Keeping the military out of politics and keeping civilian authorities from drawing the military into politics are two of the most fundamental concerns of civil-military relations theory and democratic consolidation in transition states (Schmitter, 1996:xii). Primarily because of the military's coercive force potential and presumably less-democratic predilections, theory and the practical advising derived from it have concentrated overwhelmingly on the problem of keeping the military out of politics by ensuring adequate civilian control over the military (Feaver, 1999:211-241). But this is only half of the story. In democratizing states, because the stakes are so high and rules and democratic customs are still evolving, the temptations are strong for civilians to misuse the military and/or draw it into partisan political struggles. Real problems for democratization ensue when the second of the two fundamental concerns is not heeded
In the post-communist transitions in central and eastern Europe, competing priorities also distra... more In the post-communist transitions in central and eastern Europe, competing priorities also distracted attention from intelligence reform as political, economic, and other security institutions simultaneously underwent changes. Western biases shaping the packaging of reform assistance added to the relative neglect of intelligence. The West’s early focus on market economy formation instead of the establishment of rule of law, as well as its pronounced unwillingness to assist what were still considered the “instruments of repression,” kept intelligence near the bottom of the reformist agenda during the first few years of transition.
Larry L. Watts, a former Rand consultant and adviser on military reform to the Romanian Defense M... more Larry L. Watts, a former Rand consultant and adviser on military reform to the Romanian Defense Ministry, advises the Romanian government on intelligence matters. Intelligence reform is a critical element of democratization, but it is frequently relegated to the back burner in the early days of post-authoritarian regime transitions. This is due, in part, to a reflexive aversion to what was commonly the most brutal legacy of the former regimes. Transition populations tend to favor the destruction of intelligence apparatuses, not their reform.
... George Cristian Maior and Mihaela Matei, 'Bridging the Gap in Civilmilitary Relations i... more ... George Cristian Maior and Mihaela Matei, 'Bridging the Gap in Civilmilitary Relations in Southeastern Europe: Romania's Defence-Planning Case', Mediterranean ... to a four-star general on his retirement at the beginning of 2001, while his successor, Mircea Chelaru, rose from ...
This study examines Romania’s lesser-known early mediation during the Vietnam War and its contrib... more This study examines Romania’s lesser-known early mediation during the Vietnam War and its contribution to the “Trinh signal” of January 1967, commonly considered the first real breakthrough in movement towards peace talks. The study explains how and why the Romanian approach differed from that of other Warsaw Pact intermediaries, and why those differences resonated with the North Vietnamese leadership. The study indicates that Romania’s mediation during 1965-1966 was far more significant, consistent and influential than previously thought, setting the stage for its more spectacular role as Washington’s principle channel to Hanoi in the autumn of 1967 and contributing to the overwhelmingly positive impression of its efforts by the Johnson Administration.
When Western policymakers confront the problem of resolving – or, at a minimum, managing – ethnic... more When Western policymakers confront the problem of resolving – or, at a minimum, managing – ethnic tensions in central Europe and the Balkans, their discussions typically revolve around principles of political and territorial organization. Federalism, confederalism, some form of autonomy, goes the thinking, would foster greater political decentralization in the region – itself considered to be an unmitigated good – that would go a long way toward easing tensions. However, there are a few problems with this approach, not the least of which is the doubtful nature of its two underlying presumptions: that adopting new principles of organization will lead to behavior conducive to improved relations between groups in the short term and that these organizational principles as practiced in the West represent a conscious attempt to devolve power to the local level. … Larry L. Watts World Policy Journal Vol. 12, No. 1 (Spring, 1995), pp. 89-96
The restructuring of Romania’s armed forces has been driven by political expediency rather than m... more The restructuring of Romania’s armed forces has been driven by political expediency rather than military considerations. The lliescu government must reverse this trend if it hopes for a NATO invitation.
Problems of Post-Communism Volume 48, Issue 4, 2001
Aside from the being the worst nuclear disaster up to that point and an international cautionary ... more Aside from the being the worst nuclear disaster up to that point and an international cautionary tale, creating a humanitarian crisis in the Ukrainian SSR and derailing nuclear power plans throughout Europe for decades, Chernobyl was also a demonstration of how little regard the USSR had for its allies. In its efforts both to deal with the situation while covering up failings of the Soviet system as much as possible, during the first critical week following the accident Moscow failed to provide even basic information to its affected allies that could inform their own responses. The repeated queries of the Romanian leadership to Soviet officials posted to their country and back in the USSR were met with stony silence. Not content to wait on the Kremlin's convenience in the developing crisis, Romania turned to the United States.
Romania, Nuclear Energy & The Atomic Bomb tells the story of Romanian nuclear preoccupations from... more Romania, Nuclear Energy & The Atomic Bomb tells the story of Romanian nuclear preoccupations from the 1920s until the Cuban Missile Crisis under the guiding hand of Professor Horia Hulubei; founder of the Institute of Atomic Physics, formulator of his country’s nuclear energy program, and organizer of scientific research at the national level. It presents the reasoning behind Bucharest’s pursuit of heavy water-moderated, natural uranium-fueled power plant technology during the early Cold War and exposes the profound influence of France on the initial direction of Romanian atomic and nuclear research. Romania, Nuclear Energy & The Atomic Bomb details the nuclear physicist’s relentless defense of science against the racial and political ideological impositions of Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s USSR, and explores the multiple attempts by the enemies of science and free-thinking – from the right-radical Iron Guard to Nazi German authorities, to Soviet authorities and their Romanian agents – to rid themselves of the troublesome professor. It unpacks the many roles played by Horia Hulubei – war hero in Romania and France during World War I; experimental scientist, technological innovator, teacher, diplomat, administrator; builder of institutions and architect of a nation-wide research effort, and indefatigable champion of scientific freedom and responsibility throughout. Romania, Nuclear Energy & The Atomic Bomb documents the long-running battle with Moscow for control over Romanian uranium resources and the right to choose energy policies and technologies independently, and Romania’s push back against Soviet military build-ups in Eastern Europe and Soviet nuclear arms racing.
Romania, Nuclear Energy & The Atomic Bomb tells the story of Romanian nuclear preoccupations from... more Romania, Nuclear Energy & The Atomic Bomb tells the story of Romanian nuclear preoccupations from the 1920s until the Cuban Missile Crisis under the guiding hand of Professor Horia Hulubei; founder of the Institute of Atomic Physics, formulator of his country’s nuclear energy program, and organizer of scientific research at the national level. It presents the reasoning behind Bucharest’s pursuit of heavy water-moderated, natural uranium-fueled power plant technology during the early Cold War and exposes the profound influence of France on the initial direction of Romanian atomic and nuclear research. Romania, Nuclear Energy & The Atomic Bomb details the nuclear physicist’s relentless defense of science against the racial and political ideological impositions of Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s USSR, and explores the multiple attempts by the enemies of science and free-thinking – from the right-radical Iron Guard to Nazi German authorities, to Soviet authorities and their Romanian agents – to rid themselves of the troublesome professor. It unpacks the many roles played by Horia Hulubei – war hero in Romania and France during World War I; experimental scientist, technological innovator, teacher, diplomat, administrator; builder of institutions and architect of a nation-wide research effort, and indefatigable champion of scientific freedom and responsibility throughout. Romania, Nuclear Energy & The Atomic Bomb documents the long-running battle with Moscow for control over Romanian uranium resources and the right to choose energy policies and technologies independently, and Romania’s push back against Soviet military build-ups in Eastern Europe and Soviet nuclear arms racing.
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Papers by Larry L Watts
Larry L. Watts
World Policy Journal
Vol. 12, No. 1 (Spring, 1995), pp. 89-96
Problems of Post-Communism
Volume 48, Issue 4, 2001
Larry L. Watts
World Policy Journal
Vol. 12, No. 1 (Spring, 1995), pp. 89-96
Problems of Post-Communism
Volume 48, Issue 4, 2001
Crisis under the guiding hand of Professor Horia Hulubei; founder of the Institute of Atomic Physics, formulator of his country’s nuclear energy program, and organizer of scientific research at the national level. It presents the reasoning behind Bucharest’s pursuit of heavy water-moderated, natural uranium-fueled power plant technology during the early Cold War and exposes the profound influence of France on the initial direction of Romanian atomic and nuclear research.
Romania, Nuclear Energy & The Atomic Bomb details the nuclear physicist’s relentless defense of science against the racial and political ideological impositions of Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s USSR, and explores the multiple attempts by the enemies of science and free-thinking – from the right-radical Iron Guard to Nazi German authorities, to Soviet authorities and their Romanian agents – to rid themselves of the troublesome professor. It unpacks the many roles played by Horia Hulubei – war hero in Romania and France during World War I; experimental scientist, technological innovator, teacher, diplomat, administrator; builder of institutions and architect of a nation-wide research effort, and indefatigable champion of scientific freedom and responsibility throughout.
Romania, Nuclear Energy & The Atomic Bomb documents the long-running battle with Moscow for control over Romanian uranium resources and the right to choose energy policies and technologies independently, and Romania’s push back against Soviet military build-ups in Eastern Europe and Soviet nuclear arms racing.
Romania, Nuclear Energy & The Atomic Bomb details the nuclear physicist’s relentless defense of science against the racial and political ideological impositions of Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s USSR, and explores the multiple attempts by the enemies of science and free-thinking – from the right-radical Iron Guard to Nazi German authorities, to Soviet authorities and their Romanian agents – to rid themselves of the troublesome professor. It unpacks the many roles played by Horia Hulubei – war hero in Romania and France during World War I; experimental scientist, technological innovator, teacher, diplomat, administrator; builder of institutions and architect of a nation-wide research effort, and indefatigable champion of scientific freedom and responsibility throughout.
Romania, Nuclear Energy & The Atomic Bomb documents the long-running battle with Moscow for control over Romanian uranium resources and the right to choose energy policies and technologies independently, and Romania’s push back against Soviet military build-ups in Eastern Europe and Soviet nuclear arms racing.