This paper presents a framework for analyzing the economic, health, and recreation implications o... more This paper presents a framework for analyzing the economic, health, and recreation implications of swim closures related to high fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) levels. The framework utilizes benefit transfer policy analysis to provide a practical procedure for estimating the effectiveness of recreational water quality policies. Evaluation criteria include the rates of intended and unintended management outcomes, whether the chosen protocols generate closures with positive net economic benefits to swimmers, and the number of predicted illnesses the policy is able to prevent. We demonstrate the framework through a case study of a Lake Michigan freshwater beach using existing water quality and visitor data from 1998 to 2001. We find that a typical closure causes a net economic loss among would-be swimmers totaling $1274-37 030/ day, depending on the value assumptions used. Unnecessary closures, caused by high indicator variability and a 24-h time delay between when samples are taken and the management decision can be made, occurred on 14 (12%) out of 118 monitored summer days. Days with high FIB levels when the swim area is open are also common but do relatively little economic harm in comparison. Also, even if the closure policy could be implemented daily and perfectly without error, only about 42% of predicted illnesses would be avoided. These conclusions were sensitive to the relative values and risk preferences that swimmers have for recreation access and avoiding health effects, suggesting a need for further study of the impacts of recreational water quality policies on individuals.
The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to descr... more The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self-motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.
Figure 1. Shaded relief map of southern California showing geographical extent and overlap of dif... more Figure 1. Shaded relief map of southern California showing geographical extent and overlap of different hazards. ... Figure 2. Guiding framework for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project. ... Figure 3. Relationships among the Southern California Multi-Hazards ...
Page 1. By Suzanne Perry, Dale Cox, Lucile Jones, Richard Bernknopf, James Goltz, Kenneth Hudnut,... more Page 1. By Suzanne Perry, Dale Cox, Lucile Jones, Richard Bernknopf, James Goltz, Kenneth Hudnut, Dennis Mileti, Daniel Ponti, Keith Porter, Michael Reichle, Hope Seligson, Kimberley Shoaf, Jerry Treiman, and Anne Wein The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story ...
This paper presents a framework for analyzing the economic, health, and recreation implications o... more This paper presents a framework for analyzing the economic, health, and recreation implications of swim closures related to high fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) levels. The framework utilizes benefit transfer policy analysis to provide a practical procedure for estimating the effectiveness of recreational water quality policies. Evaluation criteria include the rates of intended and unintended management outcomes, whether the chosen protocols generate closures with positive net economic benefits to swimmers, and the number of predicted illnesses the policy is able to prevent. We demonstrate the framework through a case study of a Lake Michigan freshwater beach using existing water quality and visitor data from 1998 to 2001. We find that a typical closure causes a net economic loss among would-be swimmers totaling $1274-37 030/ day, depending on the value assumptions used. Unnecessary closures, caused by high indicator variability and a 24-h time delay between when samples are taken and the management decision can be made, occurred on 14 (12%) out of 118 monitored summer days. Days with high FIB levels when the swim area is open are also common but do relatively little economic harm in comparison. Also, even if the closure policy could be implemented daily and perfectly without error, only about 42% of predicted illnesses would be avoided. These conclusions were sensitive to the relative values and risk preferences that swimmers have for recreation access and avoiding health effects, suggesting a need for further study of the impacts of recreational water quality policies on individuals.
The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to descr... more The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self-motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.
Figure 1. Shaded relief map of southern California showing geographical extent and overlap of dif... more Figure 1. Shaded relief map of southern California showing geographical extent and overlap of different hazards. ... Figure 2. Guiding framework for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project. ... Figure 3. Relationships among the Southern California Multi-Hazards ...
Page 1. By Suzanne Perry, Dale Cox, Lucile Jones, Richard Bernknopf, James Goltz, Kenneth Hudnut,... more Page 1. By Suzanne Perry, Dale Cox, Lucile Jones, Richard Bernknopf, James Goltz, Kenneth Hudnut, Dennis Mileti, Daniel Ponti, Keith Porter, Michael Reichle, Hope Seligson, Kimberley Shoaf, Jerry Treiman, and Anne Wein The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story ...
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