Global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty with learni... more Global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty with learning. We provide stochastic dominance theorems that provide new insights into when abatement and investment into low carbon technology should increase in risk. We show that R&D into low-carbon technologies and near-term abatement are in some sense opposites in terms of risk. Abatement provides insurance against the possibility of major catastrophes; R&D provides insurance against the possibility that climate change is marginally worse than average. We extend our results to the comparative statics of learning. JEL classification: D81;O32; Q54; Q55; Q58
This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on i... more This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The project aimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longerterm climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement.
Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only ... more Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work.
Environmental policy discussions increasingly focus on issues related to technological change. Th... more Environmental policy discussions increasingly focus on issues related to technological change. This is partly because the environmental consequences of social activity are frequently affected by the rate and direction of technological change, and partly because environmental policy interventions can themselves create constraints and incentives that have significant effects on the path of technological progress. This paper, prepared as a chapter draft for the forthcoming Handbook of Environmental Economics (North-Holland/Elsevier Science), summarizes current thinking on technological change in the broader economics literature, surveys the growing economic literature on the interaction between technology and the environment, and explores the normative implications of these analyses. We begin with a brief overview of the economics of technological change, and then examine theory and empirical evidence on invention, innovation, and diffusion and the related literature on the effects of environmental policy on the creation of new, environmentally friendly technology. We conclude with suggestions for further research on technological change and the environment.
... is indeed a most appropriate case study: nowhere is demand-pull as powerful as in the human... more ... is indeed a most appropriate case study: nowhere is demand-pull as powerful as in the human desire to ... What seems even more impor-tant, however, is that the model of induced adaptive innovation with international recharge has been institutionally internalized in ...
Sir Stephen Schneider, in his Commentary What is 'dangerous' climate change? (Nature... more Sir Stephen Schneider, in his Commentary What is 'dangerous' climate change? (Nature 411, 1719; 2001), provides a succinct description of the IPCC process and an excellent summary of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, of which we were among the lead ...
Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over... more Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book
Global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty with learni... more Global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty with learning. We provide stochastic dominance theorems that provide new insights into when abatement and investment into low carbon technology should increase in risk. We show that R&D into low-carbon technologies and near-term abatement are in some sense opposites in terms of risk. Abatement provides insurance against the possibility of major catastrophes; R&D provides insurance against the possibility that climate change is marginally worse than average. We extend our results to the comparative statics of learning. JEL classification: D81;O32; Q54; Q55; Q58
This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on i... more This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The project aimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longerterm climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement.
Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only ... more Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work.
Environmental policy discussions increasingly focus on issues related to technological change. Th... more Environmental policy discussions increasingly focus on issues related to technological change. This is partly because the environmental consequences of social activity are frequently affected by the rate and direction of technological change, and partly because environmental policy interventions can themselves create constraints and incentives that have significant effects on the path of technological progress. This paper, prepared as a chapter draft for the forthcoming Handbook of Environmental Economics (North-Holland/Elsevier Science), summarizes current thinking on technological change in the broader economics literature, surveys the growing economic literature on the interaction between technology and the environment, and explores the normative implications of these analyses. We begin with a brief overview of the economics of technological change, and then examine theory and empirical evidence on invention, innovation, and diffusion and the related literature on the effects of environmental policy on the creation of new, environmentally friendly technology. We conclude with suggestions for further research on technological change and the environment.
... is indeed a most appropriate case study: nowhere is demand-pull as powerful as in the human... more ... is indeed a most appropriate case study: nowhere is demand-pull as powerful as in the human desire to ... What seems even more impor-tant, however, is that the model of induced adaptive innovation with international recharge has been institutionally internalized in ...
Sir Stephen Schneider, in his Commentary What is 'dangerous' climate change? (Nature... more Sir Stephen Schneider, in his Commentary What is 'dangerous' climate change? (Nature 411, 1719; 2001), provides a succinct description of the IPCC process and an excellent summary of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, of which we were among the lead ...
Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over... more Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book
Uploads
Papers by arnulf grubler