Papers by Girma Asefa Bogale
Drought is a complicated natural hazard that has far-reaching social and environmental impacts. I... more Drought is a complicated natural hazard that has far-reaching social and environmental impacts. In Ethiopia's diverse agro ecological zones, drought remains a severe challenge and problem. Livestock rising is one of the agricultural sub-sectors that provide income and livelihood to around one-third of African inhabitants and accounts for 30-50 percent of agricultural GDP. Pastoralists on the Ethiopia-Kenya-Somalia border endured extreme suffering, including the loss of nearly 80% of their cattle and huge migration out of drought-stricken areas. Drought can cause severe economic hardship and stress for farmers and local economies, like; lost productivity, population reduction, and the trauma of witnessing livestock, crops, soil, and native vegetation damage. Between 1990 and 2000, and 2001-2002/03, drought-related animal death rates in the Somali region increased by 60% and 80% of the entire cattle population, respectively. Drought has the greatest immediate effects on farmers, including depletion of water resources, crop failure, and an increase in food prices, ill health, livestock output losses and death, and a decline in livestock prices in the Borana zone. Drought adaptation and mitigation measures depending on geography and livestock system may improve the study's trajectory in the future if further review is done.
The impact of climate change on agriculture and food production is manifested through alterations... more The impact of climate change on agriculture and food production is manifested through alterations in agro-ecological factors. The region of sub-Saharan Africa is particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change and variability, given its reliance on rainfall-dependent agriculture and inadequate adaptive capabilities. The objective of this study was to analysis of the characterization of climate change and its impacts on smallholder farmers in eastern Ethiopia. Historical daily rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature in 1991-2021 years of 12 weather station were collected from National Meteorological Institute of Ethiopia and NASA/POWER. Data quality control, trend test and outlier detection test were used. Climate characterization (onset, cessation, LGS and Dry/wet spell length) and precipitation concentration index were examined. The earliest, and latest start of rainy season in Kombolcha and Haramaya were 81DOY (March 21) and 225DOY (August 13) within mean 130DOY and 125DOY, respectively. In study area the minimum and maximum length of growing period of was recorded in Chinakesen and Haramaya by the values of 32DOY and 253DOY (Days of the year) respectively. In this arid and semi-arid areas, growing period was recorded under the short season crop maturity while long cropping season maturity does no satisfy crop water requirement due to moisture stress. The coefficient of variation of length of growing season from Mieso and Chinakesen were 36.2% and 47.9% which implies that the areas were highly vulnerable to climate extreme events of drought. Length of growing season (LGS) of Gemechis district was decreasing by a factor − 2.533 shows highly significant at alpha value of 0.05 confidence level. Dry spell length probability occurrence of 5 days during the main cropping rainy season is significantly very high. The 30 years of data record suggests that a 29-48% precipitation concentration index of kiremt (JJAS) and belg (FMAM) seasonal rainfall which are demonstrating irregular precipitation. kiremt (JJAS) rainfall trend tests of Babile, Kurfa chale and Mieso districts were increasing by a factor of 2.016, 2.043 and 2.117, respectively and statistically significant at 95% confidence level, in the time period of 1991-2021 years. If furtherstudy will be examined climate extreme indices and adaptation strategies designed to simulate the impacts and variability of climate change in the study area.
Climate change is affecting agricultural production and other aspects of life but only limited nu... more Climate change is affecting agricultural production and other aspects of life but only limited number of studies took interest in characterizing and projecting climate and its impact on crop production at local level. The threat to agricultural sector is more serious in Ethiopia, where climate is influenced by diverse topography and varying landscape features. This study was conducted in Welmera area to model the impacts of climate change on production of two faba bean (Vicia faba L.) varieties (Tums and Gora). Historical climate and crop yield data were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia and Holeta Agricultural Research Center, respectively. Future climate data were downscaled by an average ensemble of four GCMs (BSS-CSM1-1, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM, NorESM1-M) in near-and mid-century (2030s and 2050s) under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Rainfall by near-century will increase by up to 50% depending on the concentration pathway considered compared to the baseline period (1988-2017). The projected average rainfall total of belg season (FMAM) will increase by 88.17% under RCP 4.5 scenario and 95.38% under RCP 8.5 scenario in near-century. The future projection revealed that the highest mean monthly rainfall and temperature changes will occur in July (147.3 mm/month) and August (0.24 C/month) under RCP8.5. However, in August and September mean monthly rainfall will decrease dramatically by 50.85 % and 31.05% from 2020 to 2079 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, respectively. The yield of Tumsa variety will decrease by up to 24.19% under RCP8.5 in mid-century. Gora variety will see an increase of yield by 18.24% under RCP 4.5 in mid-century and 28.03% under RCP 8.5 in near-century. Overall, the area will experience an increase and a decrease in faba bean yield for both varieties in the upcoming decades in the study area. Performance evaluation of the models showed that they were able to predict future yield faba bean varieties in the area with acceptable accuracy. Inconsistency of future climate variables and impact on fababean production underscores the need to develop location-specific adaptation strategies. Further studies that consider wider area could be necessary to better understand the impact of future climate on faba bean production in the study area and similar agroecologies in the country.
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Papers by Girma Asefa Bogale