2011 Ontario general election

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2011 Ontario general election
← 2007 October 6, 2011 2014 →
107 seats in the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario
54 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout 48.2%[1]
  First party Second party Third party
  Dalton McGuinty Crop 2.jpg Tim Hudak 2014.jpg Horwath infobox.PNG
Leader Dalton McGuinty Tim Hudak Andrea Horwath
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since December 1, 1996 June 27, 2009 March 7, 2009
Leader's seat Ottawa South Niagara West—Glanbrook Hamilton Centre
Last election 71 seats, 42.3% 26 seats, 31.6% 10 seats, 16.8%
Seats before 70 25 10
Seats won 53 37 17
Seat change Decrease17 Increase12 Increase7
Popular vote 1,625,102 1,530,076 981,508
Percentage 37.65% 35.45% 22.74%
Swing Decrease4.6pp Increase3.8pp Increase5.9pp
430px
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
Premier before election

Dalton McGuinty
Liberal

 Premier-designate

Dalton McGuinty
Liberal

The 2011 Ontario general election was held on October 6, 2011, to elect members of the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario. The Ontario Liberal Party was elected to a minority government, with the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PC Party) serving as the Official Opposition and the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) serving as a third party.

Under amendments passed by the Legislature in December 2005, Ontario elections are now held on fixed dates: the first Thursday of October every four years.[2] The writ of election was issued by Lieutenant Governor David Onley on September 7, 2011.

The election saw a record low voter turnout of 48.2%.[1]

Timeline

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Party leadership

In March 2009, PC Party leader John Tory stepped down as leader, with Tim Hudak elected to be his successor. Also in March 2009, Andrea Horwath replaced Howard Hampton as leader of the NDP at the leadership election. Thus, both the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP went into the election with a new leader. Green Party of Ontario leader Frank de Jong stepped down in November 2009; their leadership convention confirmed Mike Schreiner as their new leader. Dalton McGuinty won 95 percent support for his leadership at an Ontario Liberal annual general meeting after the 2007 election, and ran again in 2011.

Party standings

Summary

Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won/lost by party, 2007-2011
Party 2007 Gain from(loss to) 2011
Lib PC NDP
Liberal 71 (11) (7) 53
Progressive Conservative 26 11 37
New Democratic 10 7 17
Total 107 18 (11) (7) 107

Regional analysis

Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won by region (2011)
Party Toronto 905 Belt Ham/Niagara Central East Midwest Southwest North Total
    Liberal 17 14 3 1 7 3 4 4 53
    Conservative 3 3 10 7 8 4 2 37
    New Democratic 5 1 4 2 5 17
Total 22 18 10 11 14 11 10 11 107

Detailed analysis

e • d Summary of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario election results
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
 2007   Dissol.   2011  Change # % Change
Liberal Dalton McGuinty 107 71 70 53 -18 1,625,102 37.65% -4.7%
Progressive Conservative Tim Hudak 107 26 25 37 +11 1,530,076 35.45% +3.8%
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 107 10 10 17 +7 981,508 22.74% +5.9%
Green Mike Schreiner 107 - - 126,021 2.92% -5.1%
Libertarian Sam Apelbaum 51 - - 19,447 0.45% +0.3%
Family Coalition Phil Lees 31 - - 9,524 0.22% -0.6%
Freedom Paul McKeever 57 - - 9,253 0.21% +0.1%
  Independents and no affiliation 36 - - 9,021 0.21% –    
Communist Elizabeth Rowley 9 - - 1,162 0.03% -0.01%
Northern Ontario Heritage Edward Deibel 3 - - 676 0.02%  
Special Needs Danish Ahmed 4 - - 667 0.02% +0.01%
Reform Bradley J. Harness 4 - - 647 0.01% +0.01%
Paramount Canadians Ranvir Dogra 4 - - 562 0.01%  
Confederation of Regions vacant 3 - - 559 0.01% –    
Socialist Michael Laxer 5 - - 519 0.01%  
People's Political Party Kevin Clarke 4 - - 386 < .01%  
Vegan Environmental Paul Figueiras 3 - - 366 < .01%  
Republican Trueman Tuck 3 - - 232 < .01% –    
The Only Party Michael Green 3 - - 188 < .01%  
Human Rights Marilyn McCormick 2 - - 170 < .01%  
Canadians' Choice Bahman Yazdanfar 3 - - 156 < .01%  
Paupers John Turmel 2 - - 140 < .01%  
  Vacant 2  
Total 655 107 107 107 4,316,382  100%     -2.43%
Source: Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.

Maps

  • Ontario general election, 2011 results by riding - Liberal Party strength.svg

    Support for Liberal Party candidates by riding

  • Ontario Election 2011 - Progressive Conservative Party Vote.svg

    Support for Conservative Party candidates by riding

  • Ontario general election 2011 - New Democratic Party Strength.svg

    Support for New Democratic Party candidates by riding

  • Ontario general election, 2011 results by riding - Green Party strength.svg

    Support for Green Party candidates by riding

Candidates and local results

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Main article: Results by riding of the Ontario general election, 2011

Incumbent MPPs not running for re-election

Opinion polls

Polling Firm Date of Polling Link Liberal PC NDP Green Type of poll Margin of error
Angus Reid October 4–5, 2011 PDF 37 33 26 3 Online 3.6%
EKOS October 3–5, 2011 PDF 37.7 31.5 23.3 5.9 Interactive voice response 2.0%
Forum Research October 4, 2011 HTML 37 36 23 3 Interactive voice response 3.1%
Angus Reid October 3–4, 2011 PDF 33 36 26 5 Online 2.1%
Abacus Data October 3–4, 2011 HTML 37 34 24 4 Online 3.1%
EKOS October 2–4, 2011 PDF 39.0 29.7 23.1 6.6 Interactive voice response 2.2%
Nanos Research October 2–3, 2011 PDF 40.1 33.0 23.2 2.8 Telephone 4.2%
EKOS October 2–3, 2011 PDF 39.1 29.1 24.5 6.0 Interactive voice response 2.9%
Nanos Research October 1–3, 2011 PDF 37.7 33.2 25.8 2.1 Telephone 3.4%
Ipsos Reid September 30 – October 3, 2011 PDF 41 31 25 3 Telephone 3.1%
Nanos Research September 30 – October 2, 2011 PDF 35.9 36.4 25.7 1.2 Telephone 3.5%
EKOS September 29 – October 2, 2011 PDF 37.8 30.6 22.7 7.3 Interactive voice response 2.8%
Nanos Research September 29 – October 1, 2011 PDF 36.5 34 26.8 1.9 Telephone 3.5%
Nanos Research September 28–30, 2011 PDF 38.0 35.3 24.6 1.8 Telephone 3.5%
Angus Reid September 28–30, 2011 PDF 33 34 26 6 Online 3.1%
Leger Marketing September 28–29, 2011 PDF[permanent dead link] 32 34 29 5 Online 3.1%
Nanos Research September 28–29, 2011 PDF 37.7 34.4 25.5 2.0 Telephone 4.3%
Environics September 26–28, 2011 HTML 35 36 25 3 Online
Abacus Data September 23–25, 2011 PDF 33 37 23 6 Online 2.9%
EKOS September 21–25, 2011 PDF 34.9 31.4 24.7 7.6 Interactive voice response 2.3%
Forum Research September 22–23, 2011 HTML 35 35 23 5 Interactive voice response 0.5%
Angus Reid September 13–15, 2011 HTML 32 36 26 6 Online 3.1%
Leger Marketing September 12–15, 2011 PDF[permanent dead link] 33 36 26 5 Online 3.1%
Abacus Data September 9–12, 2011 HTML 32 41 20 6 Online 3.2%
Nanos Research September 10–11, 2011 PDF 38.1 34.7 24.3 2.7 Telephone 4.9%
Ipsos Reid September 7–11, 2011 HTML 38 37 24 1 Telephone 3.5%
Harris-Decima August 25 – September 4, 2011 HTML 40 29 24 6 Telephone 3.8%
Nanos Research August 30 – September 1, 2011 PDF 31.9 35.4 22.8 4.1 Telephone 3.1%
Forum Research August 29–30, 2011 HTML 30 35 26 7 Interactive voice response 2.0%
Angus Reid August 25–28, 2011 PDF 31 38 24 6 Online 3.1%
Nanos Research August 10–13, 2011 PDF 37.6 42.1 16.2 3.4 Telephone 3.4%
Ipsos Reid July 29 – August 4, 2011 HTML 36 38 23 3 Telephone 4.9%
Forum Research July 27–28, 2011 HTML 28 38 24 7 Interactive voice response 2.1%
Ipsos Reid June 7 – July 7, 2011 HTML 31 42 22 5 Telephone 3.5%
Forum Research June 21–22, 2011 HTML 26 41 22 8 Interactive voice response 1.7%
Ipsos Reid May 17 – June 9, 2011 HTML 34 40 20 6 Telephone 3.5%
Nanos Research May 14–15, 2011 PDF 34 41 19 5 Telephone 4.7%
Nanos Research March 8–11, 2011 PDF 35 44 16 4 Telephone 4.9%
Nanos Research January 31 – February 3, 2011 PDF 39 43 13 5 Telephone 4.7%
Ipsos Reid January 20, 2011 HTML 35 38 17 9 Telephone
Ipsos Reid November 18, 2010 HTML 32 41 20 7
Angus Reid September 28, 2010 PDF 29 41 22 8 Online 3.5%
Ipsos Reid August 21, 2010 HTML 35 36 18 11
Ipsos Reid June 19, 2010 HTML 37 32 20 11
Nanos Research February 9–10, 2010 PDF 41.4 37.9 12.8 7.9 Telephone 4.9%
Ipsos Reid December 13, 2009 HTML 38 34 15 10
Angus Reid December 4, 2009 PDF 27 41 20 11
Nanos Research October 24–25, 2009 PDF 36.6 35 17.2 9.8 Telephone 4.8%
Environics October 2009 HTML[permanent dead link] 32 37 19 11
Environics June 2009 HTML[permanent dead link] 44 32 15 8
Environics April 2009 HTML 44 29 17 11
Environics January 2009 HTML[permanent dead link] 45 32 12 11
Environics November 2008 HTML[permanent dead link] 35 30 21 13
Environics June 2008 HTML[permanent dead link] 41 31 16 12
Environics March 2008 HTML 38 30 19 12
Environics January 2008 HTML[permanent dead link] 45 34 18 2
Environics November 2007 HTML[permanent dead link] 44 31 22 3
Election 2007 October 10, 2007 PDF 42.3 31.6 16.8 8.0

Media endorsements

Liberals

Progressive Conservatives

Did not endorse

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  3. ↑ Robert Benzie and Susan Delacourt. "Ontario cabinet minister to seek federal seat." Toronto Star.
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  5. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  6. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  7. ↑ "Longtime Pickering politician calls it quits". Pickering News Advertiser.
  8. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  9. ↑ Liberal MPP Caplan not running again "Toronto Star"
  10. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  15. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  16. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. ↑ Liberal backbencher Tony Ruprecht won’t seek re-election "Toronto Star"
  18. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  19. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  21. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  22. ↑ "Veteran Ontario MPP Norm Sterling loses bitter PC nomination battle ". Globe and Mail.
  23. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  36. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  37. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.

External links

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